Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220857

357 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

The upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest will move
northeast towards the Four Corner`s Region today then into the
Central Rockies tonight. This low will also weaken as it moves
northeast becoming an open shortwave by this afternoon. Upper levels
of the atmosphere dry out as the day progresses with mid levels of
the atmosphere remaining moist.  This will allow more mid level
cloudiness to be observed across western Kansas today. A weak
frontal boundary at the surface is currently stretched across west
central Kansas this morning and is expected to move slightly
northward across northwest Kansas by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a
dome of high pressure across the southeast United States will
continue to bring up moisture from the gulf and allow southerly
winds to be observed across southwest Kansas. Dewpoints will
generally be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with the exception
of far western Kansas where mid to upper 50s will be observed.
Another warm day is in store for the CWA with highs ranging from the
mid 90s across west central Kansas to around 100 degrees across
south central Kansas.

A few high based thunderstorms are expected to form across eastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas this afternoon then slide eastward
into western Kansas by 00Z Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are then
confined along the I-70 corridor where the frontal boundary will be
located as we head into the overnight period. A few of these storms
across northwest Kansas and the i-70 corridor may become severe this
evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
The storms farther south are not expected to become severe, however,
the strongest cells may produce small hail and wind gusts up to 55
mph. The best chances of measurable precipitation will be across the
KS/CO border and northwest Kansas with lesser amounts expected
elsewhere. Precipitation chances end by sunrise tomorrow with partly
cloudy skies expected. Lows overnight are forecasted to range from
the mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

An upper level trough/low, located near the coast of the Pacific
Northwest, will approach the central and northern Rockies late
this weekend. As this system approaches a surface boundary will be
located across western Kansas. GFS, ECMWF, and NAM were also in
decent agreement with 700mb temperatures warming to +12c to +14c
by 00z Sunday across western Kansas. Just east and north of this
warm layer 800mb to 600mb moisture will increase during the day as
a 500mb thermal trough preceding the main upper level tough begins
to cross the central high plains. Based on the moisture and weak
forcing present late Saturday will keep a mention of widely
scattered convection moving east of Dodge City but at this time it
appears the better chances for convection will be north of I-70
based on the improving warm air advection developing during the
evening in this area Saturday night.

On Sunday the upper level trough appears to become more
negatively tilted as it moves out into the Northern Plains as an
upper level jet streak moves from the Colorado Rockies out into
Nebraska. Based on the location of the right entrance region of
this upper level jet along with the location of low level forcing
will keep high chance for convection across west central and north
central Kansas Sunday night. Late day convection further south
currently appearing more questionable, however at this time am not
completely able to rule out a few storms in southwest Kansas.

By early next week another upper level trough will drop south out
of Canada into the northwestern United States. As this next system
approaches the Central Rockies the chances for thunderstorms will
continue across western Kansas. At this time it appears this next
system will finally move across the Central Plains mid week.

Highs over the weekend will be mainly in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees based on the 850mb to 700mb temperatures at 00z Sunday and
00z Monday. From Monday through Wednesday highs are expected to be
mainly in the low to mid 90s given the expected cloud cover and
slightly cooler 850mb temperatures early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

Winds will generally be from the south to southeast today as high
pressure continues to bring moisture up from the south. A frontal
boundary will be located along the I-70 corridor this afternoon
and may shift winds at the HYS terminal to more of an easterly
direction for a few hours. VFR conditions are expected across the
TAF sites with a few mid level clouds AOA100.


DDC  99  71  97  71 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  98  69  94  67 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  97  68  94  67 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  99  70  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  99  71  96  70 /  30  30  20  20
P28 100  73  99  73 /  10  10  10  10




SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.