Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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129
FXUS63 KDDC 210548
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1248 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

 Broad plume of 14 deg C 700 mb level air was located from eastern
Colorado through southwest Nebraska and northwest/west central
Kansas this afternoon. The last couple of forecast updates showed
the shortblend model consensus maintaining afternoon highs around
100 degrees though the I-70 corridor and broad weak southwest
surface flow. The NAM indicated no convective precipitation this
evening. Otherwise, the RAP/HRRR models do appear to develop
isolated convection near the edge of the mid level cap. In any
case, the convective environment is not that impressive with very
weak deep shear overall. We do not expect to alter the low POPs
this evening. Gong forward into the evening and overnight, the arc
of thin cirrus should become more dense with time as the
shortwave spinning over west central New Mexico will track
northeast into southeast Colorado by Monday morning. A moderate
mid level moisture transport signal should develop by midday
Sunday. Although not a much better severe weather risk, but
frequent lightning and locally heavy rain risk as the shortwave
becomes sheared out into the Missouri valley late Monday night.
The cloud cover and rain chances should lead to about a 10 degree
high temperature drop by mid afternoon, as compared to today, with
especially cooler evening temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

By Tuesday morning the models hint at a slug of low level stratus
behind the cold front, covering most of far southwest Kansas in
overcast before mixing out by late afternoon in light east-northeast
surface flow. This appears to be at least a couple of days with
minimal chances for storms in the area given a lack of significant
moisture return. Model consensus delivers highs just around 5
degrees below normal for late August with rain and thunderstorm
chances returning by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Main challenge will be timing and duration of convection impacting
terminals today. A subtropical storm system will be moving into
far southwest KS through the day, and this will sponsor
development of storms fairly early in the afternoon. Will be
carrying VCTS at all terminals in the afternoon, but shower and
thunderstorm activity will be scattered in nature and not
affecting terminals at all times during the period. Thunderstorm
risk at terminals will diminish by evening as axis of thunderstorm
activity shifts more into central and south central KS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  91  67  86 /  20  30  50  20
GCK  70  88  65  84 /  20  30  60  20
EHA  67  85  64  83 /  20  30  30  20
LBL  70  89  66  85 /  30  30  40  20
HYS  73  90  66  84 /  20  40  60  10
P28  74  95  71  87 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...Umscheid



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