Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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547
FXUS63 KDDC 301722
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Western Kansas will be under northeast flow aloft for one more day
before the pattern starts to change. A few thunderstorms are
expected to slide across the CWA early this morning bringing
mostly cloudy skies. Cloudiness will decrease from west to east
leading to mostly clear skies across a majority of the forecast
area this afternoon. An exception to this will be across central
and south central Kansas where clouds may stay around throughout
the day. Most models suggest a weak disturbance to move into
central Kansas this evening into the overnight period increasing
thunderstorm chances. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies in this
area with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Winds will shift to more
of a southerly direction today and continue into tonight as an
area of low pressure and associated cold front shifts northward.
As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the upper 80s
across central and south central Kansas to lower 90s across far
southwestern Kansas and along the KS/CO border. Lows tonight will
generally fall to around 70 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

The upper level high shifts eastward into the Plains Sunday into
the early part of next week. We should remain dry during this time
frame. However, a few storms could fire in the late afternoon and
evening hours across west central Kansas Monday and Tuesday
evenings. A trough of low pressure will generally be located
across eastern Colorado or far western Kansas during this time
frame leading to southerly winds felt across the forecast area.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated with the exception of around
the aforementioned thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances increase
towards the later part of next week as a series of disturbances
move into the area. As for temperatures, highs will start out in
the upper 90s to around 100 degrees Sunday through Tuesday then
slowly decrease into the low to mid 90s by the end of the week.
Lows will generally be around 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

A south to southeasterly wind at 10 to 15 knots this afternoon
will gradually veer to the southwest overnight as a weak surface
boundary moves northeast across western Kansas. Ahead of this
frontal boundary this evening there will be a slight chance for
thunderstorm late today and early tonight...mainly in the Hays
area. The RAP and NAM model soundings both suggesting cloud bases
late today and early tonight with being in the 850mb to 700mb
level.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  70  99  72 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  93  68  99  70 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  95  69  99  70 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  95  70 100  71 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  89  69  96  72 /  30  30  10  10
P28  92  73  99  74 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert



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