Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 012045
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Dry northwesterly upper level flow will begin to weaken as upper
level ridging over the Rockies builds into the Central Plains into
Saturday.

For tonight, the NAM model has a few thunderstorms moving into the
far west along the Colorado border early this evening to around
midnight. Other models have nothing. With no real forcing to help
trigger any storms will continue with less than 15 percent chances
out west. For Saturday the NAM shows a slight chance for
thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon near Hays to Medicine Lodge,
however other models are dry. Current thoughts are again, with a
lack of any dynamic forcing, to keep that area at less than 15
percent chance.

Overnight lows will be similar to last night with light winds and
some increasing cirrus clouds. Lows will be around 58 to 62. Highs
on Saturday are forecast to be in the upper 80s to around 90.
Guidance highs look a tad too warm and have kept previous highs with
a few minor tweaks.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Upper level ridging over Nevada will gradually shift eastward to the
southern and central high plains by Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday
and Wednesday, this ridge will gradually flatten as a shortwave trough
rotates northward then eastward around the periphery of the ridge.
Low level moisture is progged to mix out somewhat through Monday
during the afternoons on the high plains, and then gradually
improve by Tuesday and Wednesday as surface troughing and low
level capping increase. This will lead to greater surface based
CAPE and low level convergence. Thunderstorms often develop on the
higher terrain this time of year when western Kansas happens to be
located along the southern edge of the westerlies. The first
opportunity for thunderstorms, albeit isolated, may be late
Tuesday, with better chances on Wednesday. Maximum temperatures
will gradually creep up into the lower to middle 90s by early to
mid next week as the lee troughing increases. Increasing lee
troughing and low level moisture will also lead to warmer
overnight lows.

Another weak upper level trough is progged to approach western
Kansas by late next week; and this could lead to additional
thunderstorm clusters on the high plains. Uncertainty is of course
high, which is to be expected given the small scale systems and
weak associated forcing that we see this time of year. We can only
speculate on the timing and intensity of any thunderstorm
episodes. It is too early to tell whether any of these storms
would be severe; but given the increasing westerlies, we cannot
rule it out. High temperatures late next week will depend on the
extent of any rainfall and convective debris. Aside from that,
this will be a fairly warm regime. However, given the abundant
vegetation from all the summer rains, 100F temperatures are not
likely.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR conditions are expected into Saturday. A weak trough of low
pressure will shift winds to light northeasterly this afternoon
into tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  87  64  89 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  59  88  63  88 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  60  88  61  86 /  10   0  10   0
LBL  61  89  63  88 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  59  90  64  92 /   0  10  10  10
P28  62  88  66  91 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse





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