Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180511
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1111 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

The quiet weather pattern will persist tonight through Saturday.
The closed upper low tracking northeast over the Red River Valley
today will move into the Mississippi Valley by midday Saturday.
In the wake of this low, the central High Plains will see a short
wave ridge build over the region tonight and Saturday. The surface
trough across southwest Kansas will linger across the area this
evening. A weak cold front is expected to push into west central
Kansas later tonight in response to an upper disturbance tracking
across the northern Plains this evening. This front should have
little impact on sensible weather, other than some variable winds.
Given the light winds and clear skies, have lowered overnight lows
a few degrees and more in line with the cooler MAV MOS guidance.

On Saturday, a strong upper level disturbance now approaching the
West Coast will move onshore over southern California into
northern Baja. Southerly winds will gradually increase through the
day as the surface trough becomes reestablished along the eastern
slopes of the Rockies. We should also see increasing high level
cloudiness ahead of the west coast system. This could hold
temperatures back a few degrees...in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

The aforementioned upper wave over the southwest will push through
the Rockies toward the High Plains on Sunday. Ahead of this system,
low level moisture will be advecting back to the north and northwest
into central and western Kansas. We should see considerable low
stratus along with some fog possibly developing late Saturday night.

The models all show precipitation developing across the central into
the southern Plains Sunday afternoon and lifting northeast-east during
the evening. The GFS and ECMWF both show some weak instability
with MUCAPE values up to 250 j/kg Sunday afternoon and evening.
Will keep the mention of thunder going especially over the eastern
part of the area Sunday evening. Precipitation chances will wind
down fairly quickly by midnight.

Upper level ridging builds back over the region in the wake of the
weekend storm. We should see temperatures back well into the 70s
by Tuesday. The models continue to be in fairly good agreement
with another strong upper wave moving onshore in the west next
Wednesday and moving rapidly toward the central and northern
Plains by Thursday night. Current trends continue to take the
associated surface low east across northern Kansas or southern
Nebraska. There will be a chance for light rain, possibly changing
to light snow across parts of the area Thursday night and Friday.
The current forecast track would suggest this should mainly be
confined to northern parts of my area north of Highway 96. The
main impact will likely be very strong northwest winds developing
across the area as the surface low moves east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Winds at less than 10 knots overnight will shift to the southeast
at around 10 knots by early Saturday afternoon. These
southeasterly winds will then begin to gradually increase into the
10 to 15 knot range late day and early Saturday evening as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
These southeasterly winds will begin to draw more humid air into
southwest Kansas overnight and based on NAM and GFS model
soundings VFR conditions are expected through 06z Sunday. Later
shifts may need to monitor how quickly the low level moisture will
return because areas of MVFR or IFR stratus and fog are expected
to spread into southwest and north central Kansas between 06z and
12z Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  68  45  68 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  31  68  43  67 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  33  69  41  66 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  33  69  43  69 /   0   0   0  30
HYS  33  66  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
P28  38  69  48  69 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Burgert



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