000
FXUS63 KDDC 171700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 18Z TAFS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE 17.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 50-75 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TWO PROMINENT JET STREAKS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE RAOB NETWORK...ONE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE SECOND STREAK WAS STRONGER WITH MAGNITUDES
IN THE 95-105 KT RANGE. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE GYRE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. INTERPOLATION OF ACTUAL OBSERVED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
VALUES AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE AROUND 550 DM.
CLOSER TO HOME, A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS.
ANOTHER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT 700 HPA, AN UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP VALUES WERE 5-8
DEG C. SIMILAR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME
REGION. TEMP VALUES WERE 17-20 DEG C. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED ACROSS KANSAS. INVEST 93L WAS NEAR BELIZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S CONVECTION. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
OBSERVED. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO BE TRAPPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS AMPLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW A STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO
POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OF THIS OCCURRING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND SLIDE EASTWARD
AS TIME PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE IN NATURE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE LIKE THEY WERE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REALM.  THERE WILL
A ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY.  REPEATED H5 TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL GENERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY, AND ELEVATED
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER FLOW WILL
GET SLIGHTLY MORE TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING IN FROM TEXAS.  THIS FLOW WILL EVOLVE MORE INTO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RETURNING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO THE WARMER UPPER 90S.  A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
MAY SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS, AND LOWER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO
LIBERAL.  FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED, WITH WARM
FRONT SHOOTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE PRECIP-FREE, THEN
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN STATES WILL START TO COME INTO
PLAY.  A SMALL SCALE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE EJECTED INTO THE PLAINS,
AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  NO SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR US, SO SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ALL THAT SEEM WARRANTED
AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY.  THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACED 20 TO 25 PERCENT
POPS IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA NEXT MONDAY, AND WILL LEAVE AS
IS.  NOT SURE WHAT METEOROLOGICAL FEATURE IS TRIGGERING THIS
PRECIPITATION, BUT THE LOCATION AND LEVEL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CAN BE CURTAILED BETTER AS THAT TIME FRAME APPROACHES NEARER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. SOME OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, BUT THINK ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WEST OF TERMINALS. WINDS NE 8-12 KT VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY
5-10 KT BY DUSK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  62  83  63 /  20  30  30  40
GCK  87  61  82  63 /  20  50  30  40
EHA  86  61  82  63 /  20  60  40  40
LBL  87  62  82  64 /  20  50  30  40
HYS  87  63  82  63 /  10  20  20  50
P28  87  66  84  66 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...SUGDEN