Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010947
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
447 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A convective outflow boundary from eastern Colorado convection was
racing across western Kansas early this morning with a few elevated
showers and isolated lightning strikes well behind the features. In
the near term a few isolated showers could linger into the highway
283 corridor towards 3 or 4 am however most of the area will remain
dry. The pattern is not supportive of fog this morning with better
near surface layer mixing on southerly surface winds.

A 590 DM 500 mb ridge axis will remain anchored across the West
Texas/OK/KS region over the next couple of days. as a result the
impetus for any convective activity will be weak shortwave energy
and surface based differential heating over Colorado with weak
steering flow but favorable lapse rates into Kansas. The best signal
for convection from the NAM/GFS/ECMWF supports the northern half or
so of our forecast area at best. Again with virtually no shear to
work with and generally weak instability, no severe weather will
occur however pops were maintained late Tuesday night again.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Heading into the extended period, the pattern continues to support
just about 1 standard deviation warmer than normal for high
temperature. Even warmer overnight lows are indicated by the gfs mos
numbers, with upper 60s common through next Tuesday, September 8.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF tend to flatten the upper ridge, with
faster flow and better baroclinicity over the Northern Plains and
Nebraska. This setup should be favorable for several rounds of
convective activity of our area, as well as to more localized
shortwave energy aiding small scale lift over western Kansas.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Mainly a VFR flight category forecast this time around, with only a
few isolated showers moving across the area this morning. The
prevailing surface winds will be more southerly and a little
stronger than yesterday, and as a result, providuing just enough
mixing to, in addtion to invading mid lvel cloudiness, prevent
radiation fog.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  70  94  69 /   0  20  10  10
GCK  94  67  95  67 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  93  66  94  67 /  10  20  10  10
LBL  95  67  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  95  69  96  70 /   0  20  10  10
P28  96  72  95  71 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell


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