Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorms in the process of weakening this
morning across the eastern zones. Some storms have been severe
this evening with wind signatures on radar and up to quarter size
hail. Dual pol estimates show up to 2 inches of rain have fallen
near Larned/Pawnee county, La Crosse/Rush county, and eastern Ness
county. Further convective development is probable through
sunrise, in response to the LLJ, with activity being directed
toward Medicine Lodge. This evolution is shown nicely by the 00z
NAM and latest HRRR runs. Any showers/storms near Medicine Lodge
around sunrise will not last long, as much drier/more stable air
overspreads SW KS. North winds will be modestly gusty for a few
hours this morning behind the weak cold front, followed by a
stellar autumn afternoon. Diminishing NE winds under a clear sky,
with comfortable afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Winds will be out of the north behind the Pacific cold front
Wednesday, however the surface high coming in from the northwest
will be fairly weak, thus the north winds should not be any more
than 13 to 15 knots and mainly in the morning.

Through the end of the workweek, a large ridge of high pressure
will encompass the central CONUS, and this will lead to more
warmth. A new lee trough will develop as a southwest polar jet
ejects from California into Idaho and western Montana, promoting
leeside low development well to our north-northwest. This low will
move out into the Dakotas Friday as another Pacific system rides
the polar jet northeast from California to Wyoming. The global
models now show a windier scenario, and we boosted the surface
winds about 5 knots above the SuperBlend initialization (thanks
WFO GLD, GID, ICT for coordination on this). The increased
forecast winds 18-20 knots sustained along with dewpoints in the
upper 30s to mid 40s and temperatures rising into the lower to mid
80s will prompt "Elevated" fire weather risk during the midday
through late afternoon hours Friday.

Another Pacific cold front will move through, but again
temperatures will not be impacted much given the downslope
trajectories behind the front. Again, a large ridge is forecast to
build in behind this 2nd storm system with yet a 3rd system on its
heels moving into the Left Coast by Sunday.

We will need a fundamental shift in the hemispheric pattern in
order to unlock some of the Canadian cold air. Global models
really do not show a strong signal in such large scale regime
shift through about 4-5 November, so the trend of above average
temperatures and below average precipitation (if not none) will


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Convection will remain east and south of the terminals for the
next several hours. Broken mid clouds and perhaps a straggling
rain shower through about 09z. Consensus of short term models
relegates fog/stratus development mainly to the SE of DDC during
the 09-14z time frame. Maintained a TEMPO group for DDC for
reduced vis in BR Wed AM, but confidence is low. VFR/SKC expected
at all airports by 15z, with north winds 13-23 kts for several
hours before weakening this afternoon. Winds expected to become
light and variable at all airports around sunset as weak surface
high pressure ridge settles into SW KS.


DDC  54  78  49  80 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  49  79  46  82 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  50  79  47  81 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  51  79  47  82 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  53  76  47  79 /  30   0   0   0
P28  61  79  50  78 /  40  20   0   0




LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.