Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE 22.12Z 250-HPA MAP SHOWED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 50-60-KT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT 500-HPA, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO. OTHERWISE, THE KDDC PWAT WAS 0.82", WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
DRIER THAN NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHUNTED INTO TEXAS BY THE
PREVIOUS FRONT SO THAT SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA OF RICHER MOISTURE, BUT GIVEN THE LOW
DEWPOINTS OVER THE PLAINS, THE STORMS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WHILE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. HOWEVER, SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ALONG INTERSTATE 70. MID LEVEL CLOUD WILL BE INCREASING
TODAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM; BUT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE,
TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND MID LEVEL CLOUD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

INITIALLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, AN AREA OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION FROM MONDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER OVER AREAS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 BUT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLIP EAST OF HIGHWAY
183/281 BY MID MORNING. AS THE REGION HEADS INTO TUESDAY THE
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
WAVE, THE LEE TROUGH WILL KICK OFF THE FOOT HILLS REGION OF
COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PERMIT DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING BACK
NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. MOST OF THE DAY WILL SEE
DRY CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS DECENT SOLAR
INSOLATION WILL PERMIT MIXING UP TO 750 HPA WITH RESULTANT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BY
EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL UP TO PING
PONG SIZE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL THEN SEE THE UPPER LOW SLIDE SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WHILE THE TRAILING END OF THE WAVE LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THIS WILL KEEP THE LEE TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAKER THAN TUESDAY WHICH INDICATES LITTLE
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
CLOSED LOW COMPLETELY CUTTING OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THEN
RETROGRADING UNDER AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE BACK SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS.
THIS WILL FORM A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY EARLY WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
POTENT WAVE DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUT THEN STALLS DUE TO
THE BLOCKING REGIME. GENERALLY THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE TRENDING IN KEEPING CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
HAVING IT WEAKEN OVER TIME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTORM
IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING. MOST LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE AT KHYS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH KGCK THIS EVENING FOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS, BUT AGAIN, THINK
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST. A 050 DECK WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SSE TODAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  60  82  60 /  10  30  30  30
GCK  78  60  83  60 /  10  30  20  30
EHA  76  61  82  59 /  20  20  10  20
LBL  79  62  85  61 /  10  20  10  30
HYS  78  59  79  59 /  10  50  50  30
P28  78  60  80  60 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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