Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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932
FXUS63 KDDC 221720
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1120 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The quiet and dry November marches on this afternoon. An
unseasonably strong high pressure ridge (595 dm centered south of
San Diego) continues to provide dry subsident NW flow aloft, with
cirrus rotating over the ridge axis into the plains. Most
locations along and west of US 283 will achieve the 60s this
afternoon, with the eastern zones holding in the 50s.

Tonight...Much milder than last night, with warm air advection
kicking in at 850 mb and a NW breeze keeping the boundary layer
mixed. Upper 30s will be common Thanksgiving morning, with many
locales south and west of Dodge City holding in the lower 40s.

Thanksgiving...One of the nicest Thanksgiving holidays SW Kansas
has ever seen, with perfect conditions during the afternoon.
Unseasonably warm (near record high) temperatures in the lower to
mid 70s will be enjoyed (the record high at Dodge City is
74/2005). These expected temperatures are about 20 degrees above
normal for late November, and given the dry ground, went near or
above the warmest guidance available. Full sunshine expected with
occasional wisps of cirrus, and winds will be light, less than 10
mph. A forecast to be thankful for, and excellent for holiday
travel.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A warming trend can be expected as downslope flow develops. Highs
ought to reach into the 70s for Thursday and Friday ahead of the
next cold front. The warmest days will be Thursday and Friday. If
the front moves though late on Friday, low level down slope just
ahead of the front could propel temperatures to the upper 70s to
near 80 degrees.

A dry pattern is expected across the high plains region for the
next week and probably into early December. The mid to upper
level flow pattern is expected to be mainly westerly to
northwesterly, with any embedded upper level disturbances being
fast moving. In this dry regime, high temperatures will continue
to be warmer than model guidance given the dry ground. There will
be a change in the pattern by Monday-Tuesday (November 27-28th),
with a strong upper level trough coming onshore into the western
United States and advancing toward the plains. But even this
system will probably be too fast moving to bring precipitation to
the high plains.

Warm temperatures can be expected Thursday and Friday as downslope
flow prevails across the high plains. The record highs for
Thursday and Friday for Dodge City are 74 and 80 degrees
respectively. The Thursday record has a better chance of being
tied or broken. Elevated fire weather conditions will exist for
Friday, but humidity values should remain above 15% so that
red flag warning criteria would not be met. Highs will fall back
into the 60s for Saturday and Sunday in the wake of a cold front.
Record warmth is possible for Monday as the aforementioned upper
level trough approaches, with strong lee troughing, with 80s for
highs not out of the question. Temperatures should fall back down
to near seasonal averages by Tuesday and Wednesday in the wake of
this system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Excellent flying weather will continue through Thanksgiving, with
VFR/SKC, scattered cirrus and light winds. Modestly gusty SW winds
this afternoon will diminish at sunset, and trend NW near 10 kts
or less through 12z Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  38  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  65  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  67  43  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  65  40  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  58  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
P28  53  34  72  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner



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