Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 170450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1050 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018


Issued at 1050 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

WV imagery indicates a west-southwest flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is edging eastward across eastern Colorado.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

The weather concern through the short term (and this weekend in
general) is elevated fire weather conditions Saturday &
especially on Sunday afternoon.

Tonight: Surface high pressure moved east today, shifting wind
south. Wind speed began to increase due to a surface low
developing in eastern Colorado. Wind has already become southerly
at 10-25 mph toward the Colorado border, and will spread across
southwestern Kansas through the evening through 1-2 am. The low
will kick out of eastern Colorado and move east, shifting wind
northerly early Saturday morning. As this boundary moves east
overnight, it will have enough upper level lift and better
boundary layer moisture south and east of us for rain. I went
ahead and included 20 pops for Barber County in the event that
county is in the path of the deeper moisture and lift.
Temperatures will drop into the 20s overnight, with 30s possible
near the Oklahoma border.

Saturday: Wind will become northerly at 10-20 mph sustained, with
gusts to 25 mph through the day as weak high pressure moves east.
Lee troughing develops by afternoon and deepens. This will cause
a wind shift, once again, to the south by the end of the day.
Temperatures will reach into the upper 50s/lower 60s. With the
high wind, low relative humidity and dry ground, elevated fire
weather will be a concern Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

The pressure gradient increases Saturday night with the deepening
low, which will cause wind to become 10-20 mph sustained, gusting
to 25 overnight from the south. Wind speed will increase with
mixing after sunrise 15-25 sustained, with gusts to 35 from the
southwest. Temperatures Sunday will reach into the 70 throughout
western Kansas. With the wind being higher and relative humidities
being lower on Sunday, elevated fire weather concerns continue.
After collaboration with other offices, it was decided to hold off
on issuing a fire weather watch for now.

On Monday afternoon, a strong cold front pushes through Kansas
ahead of an upper level trough. High temperatures on Monday will
be determined by the timing of the cold front. For now, we have
70s toward the Oklahoma border and 40s toward the north. However,
this will likely shift.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler as cool Arctic air sets in.
Highs right now look to be in the 30s/upper 40s. Thursday and
Friday, warm air advection and lee troughing prevail with highs
in the 50s both days. Unfortunately, dry weather looks to continue
for the weekend...


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 451 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

VFR conditions through the time period. A notable wind shift with
a cold front and the increase in winds will be the biggest change
with the weather in the time period. LLWS is possible for HYS,
DDC, and GCK from 09-12Z. Winds will turn from the south to the
northwest around 12Z and then increase through the afternoon with
winds of 20-30 kts and higher gusts possible. Near the end of the
TAF period (23Z) winds should relax a bit and turn to NE.


Issued at 435 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Elevated to significant risk of fire danger for both Saturday and
Sunday. A cold front will move through western Kansas early
Saturday afternoon and winds are expected to pick up out of the
northwest 25-35 mph with higher gusts with relative humidities
falling to 15-20% for much of the area. These winds should subside
by sunset.

Sunday the winds will switch back to the south to southwest and
increase through the day 25-35 mph with gusts over 40. Highest
fire dangers will exist roughly along and west of highway 183 as
the relative humidity falls to 15-20%.


DDC  28  62  36  76 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  26  61  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  30  63  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  30  64  35  78 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  26  59  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
P28  32  65  34  69 /  10   0   0   0




SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
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