Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161927
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
227 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Quite a difference in the models this afternoon concerning
possibilities for convection across south central Kansas.
The HRRR has really only been supported by the WRF-NMM and has
been consistent run after run today supporting a cluster of
thunderstorms initiating near the cold front-dryline intersection
in northwest OK, and moving quickly northeast over the areas of
Comanche Barber Pratt and Stafford counties between 4 and 7 pm.
There is about 30kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, and and LHP value in
the lowest bin (still thinking half dollar or slighlty larger
size hail for max size), and possibility of locally severe wind
gusts. Several of the other CAM`s fail to produce convection
across our local counties. As the boundary spreads south later
tonight, low level stratiform clouds will redevelop and
overspread much of the area by early Sunday morning. The trend
of the low level cloudiness will be one of the forecast
challenges for Sunday temperatures, as winds remain light easterly
and upslope under a surface high pressure ridge. It could remain
cloudy all day over the entire forecast area.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Latest 12UTC GFS continues to show weak mid level differential
vorticity moving through the downstream flow Sunday night, which
may account for additional elevated showers and thunderstorms
through the region. Light and variable or even easterly winds
Monday should be replaced by south winds as another warm front
develops by Monday night. This will setup a hot downslope flow day
on Tuesday, where the GFSMOS has 95 degrees at DDC. Both the GFS
and EC meet this hot airmass with another cold front on Tuesday
night, which should easily knock temperatures back down into the
low 80s on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

A cold front moving through the area this afternoon will focus a
a few strong to severe thunderstorms just ahead of it in south
central Kansas after 21 UTC. The storms should remain east of our
local terminals. Winds will eventually veer to the southeast
overnight with widespread stratus developing between midnight and
12 UTC, which may plague much of the area with IFR ceilings
during the morning hours Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  55  77  60 /  20  20  30  30
GCK  85  53  74  60 /  10  20  30  40
EHA  86  51  76  53 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  92  56  78  58 /  10  20  30  30
HYS  81  53  72  61 /  10  20  20  50
P28  94  64  79  65 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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