Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 202350
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
650 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...aviation update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

A zonal polar jet continued from Oregon through North Dakota into
the Upper Great Lakes region today. Meanwhile, an upper ridge was
centered across North Texas. A plume of subtropical moisture
extended from the Sonora region of Mexico into the Four Corners
region. Some of the high cirrus cloud tied to the subtropical moist
plume spilled into western Kansas early this afternoon. The state of
the lower troposphere will remain nearly unchanged through the Short
Term period, with a lee trough axis remaining across eastern
Colorado. The gradient east of the lee trough will remain strong
enough through the period to yield a continuation of the south winds
-- 10 to 15 mph at night and 15 to 25 mph during the day with higher
gusts. The thermodynamic profile will also remain nearly unchanged,
with perhaps a degree or so shaved off the lower tropospheric
temperatures per the GFS and ECMWF models, but we will still see mid
90s for highs most locations Wednesday it would certainly appear.

As far as precipitation chances go, it appears the best convergence
to get any sort of diurnal convection going would be along the lee
trough axis itself, along its usual axis from Baca County, CO into
far east central CO/west central KS. This is the zone where we will
keep some slight chance POPs for thunderstorm activity, with upper
level flow pushing convection a little deeper into west central KS
before dissolving after sunset. The best forcing for ascent to keep
more sustained convection going after sunset will be up in Nebraska,
which is where the strongest low level frontogenetic forcing will
be.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

A large upper low will enter the Great Basin region by Thursday
Night into Friday...and will travel slowly east into the Rockies.
Ahead of this feature across wester Kansas, warm winds will
continue, and persistence is a pretty good forecast method until the
next front comes down. We will see 90s both Thursday and Friday for
afternoon highs. This is the easy part of the forecast.

What happens after Friday with the upper low is very complicated
with low predictability. The latest runs of the 3 major global
models today now indicate that the upper low will remain tied to the
polar jet flow for a longer period of time and progress east enough
to allow an anticyclone at the surface to develop and expand
southward behind the surface response, which will develop ahead of
the initial potential vorticity anomaly that will lift northeast out
of the Central Rockies. The more progressive nature of the entire
trough axis/low is less favorable for widespread, long duration
precipitation event, but this rather significant change in the
models is a signal more of uncertainty, and that just about any
solution is still on the table regarding how the upper low will
develop, evolve, and time itself out onto the Great Plains. The best
chances for precip will still be from late Saturday through Sunday
before the primary front pushes through. We may see an abrupt end to
the precipitation event once this front pushes through, especially
of the surface high behind it is strong (favored by a more
positively tilted, progressive trough). By Sunday and/or Monday, we
should see daytime temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s behind the
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Light south winds through the night may gust to around 20 to 25
knots at times. Other than that, VFR conditions are expected with
no fog development in the morning given the mixing near surface
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  95  68  93 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  70  92  66  94 /   0  10  20  10
EHA  67  91  64  92 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  69  93  66  93 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  72  94  69  93 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  94  69  93 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell



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