Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 120821 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
321 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014
...Updated for Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014
Tranquil conditions are expected tonight and through the overnight pd.
Any storms will remain well northwest of the forecast area, so pops
will continue at zero percent. Overnight minimums will still be mild
and mainly in the 70s. Southerly winds will continue as well.
Another hot day is expected with highs in the mid 90s, which is actually
near climo. There could be some late afternoon and evening convection
along a frontal boundary mainly northwest of a line from Elkhart to
Hays. The 4km NAM is much drier than compared to the operational 12km
NAM, so the trend of reducing pops off to the northwest might be needed
in later forecasts. The WRF cores aren`t that impressive either and
keep activity pretty isolated. Dewpoints are expected to mix out ahead
of the frontal boundary, which in turn could reduce MUCAPE. The EC also
indicates this with fairly low SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. In addition,
bulk shear and upper level shear for storm top ventilation is on the
weak side, so severe weather seems unlikely. Cannot rule out some small
hail and perhaps marginal outflow speeds. Agree with the previous meteorologist
that the NAM is too warm with highs given all the evapotranspiration/moisture fluxes
that is occurring.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
For Sunday into Monday, a large upper low and trough moves into the
Great Lakes and Central Plains. This system will push a cold front
across Kansas and into Oklahoma on Sunday. There will be only a
slight chance for thunderstorms with the front across western Kansas
into Sunday night. Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible
behind the front on Monday with some upslope flow and good moisture.
Highs on Sunday will be not as warm and in the upper 80s to around
90, with mid 90s in the Medicine Lodge area. Highs on Monday will
continue in the upper 80s to around 90. Overnight lows will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday night, and low to mid 60s on
Monday night. Severe weather chances look low at this time with weak
wind shear and minor instability.
Temperatures get much cooler for Tuesday into late next week, as the
aforementioned upper low continues to build deeply southward into
the Great Lakes, adjacent Plains, and eastern U.S. with several
shortwaves rounding the base of the upper low. A large area of
cooler surface high pressure will push into the Central and Southern
Plains with highs only in the 70s, and lows in the 50s to around 60.
If clouds and showers stick around, highs may not get out of the 60s
especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday looks like the best
chances for measurable rainfall as a shortwave trough rounds the
base of the main upper low across the Central Plains. Rainfall
chances begin to decrease on Thursday into Friday. Highs warm also
by Friday possibly back into the 80 as an upper trough moves east
and upper level ridging build back into the Central Plains.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies, resulting
in south winds through the period, with the strongest winds
around 15 kts during afternoon heating. A cold front will
approach the TAF sites near the end of the period. VFR conditions
can be expected.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 70 89 68 / 0 10 20 30
GCK 96 69 88 67 / 10 10 20 30
EHA 95 69 91 67 / 0 10 40 40
LBL 95 70 92 68 / 10 10 30 30
HYS 96 68 88 68 / 20 40 20 30
P28 95 71 94 71 / 0 10 30 30