Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161136
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
536 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Wind chill temperatures at many locations across central and
southwest Kansas had dropped to around or below -15F early this
morning. This includes sites over far southwest Kansas as well.
The current wind chill advisory is holding pretty well but have
added the remainder of the forecast area to it as well. Will let
it ride until expiration time at 10 am cst as temperatures should
begin to rise by then. Otherwise, the remainder of today should be
sunny with light winds. The Arctic high pressure will have the
strongest grip on locations around central Kansas where highs
today will likely not get out of the teens in spite of the sunny
skies. Farther southwest, highs should be able to top out in the
upper 20s to near 30. The Arctic high pressure will be slowly
loosening its grip on western Kansas tonight as the center of the
high moves into Arkansas. Overnight lows are still expected to
bottom out in the single digits above zero. Wind chill temperatures
could drop to around 10 to 15 degrees below zero overnight in
central Kansas but should generally stay above advisory criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

As the upper system responsible for bringing the Arctic air into
Kansas moves into the eastern part of the country, weak northwesterly
flow will persist over the central High Plains. A couple of weak
disturbances will move southeast through mid week but these will
be either too far north or too far south to have much impact on
western Kansas. The remainder of this week will see a warming trend in
temperatures. Warm air advection will allow temperatures to climb
back through the 40s and 50s through mid week with highs in the
60s and 70s possible by Friday.

The medium range models continue to show a strong upper trough
moving east out of the Rockies and across the central High Plains
around Saturday night and Sunday. A cold front will drop southward
across the region on Saturday, bringing an end to the very warm
temperatures. The GFS and ECMWF are both in good agreement with
an H5 low pressure center tracking from west central to north
central Kansas with some minor differences in timing. With this
track, the bulk of the precipitation would still be over northern
Kansas and Nebraska but parts of the forecast area along and north
of the Arkansas River could see some rain or snow with some impacts
to weekend travel. Given this is five days out, there is still
some uncertainty as to where the exact track of this storm will be
so this will have to be monitored closely in the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

VFR skies and vsbys will predominate through this period. Winds
will start out northerly at around 10 knots but should diminish
and become variable by this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  20   5  41  19 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22   6  42  17 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  28  12  47  22 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25   7  45  17 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  15   2  37  17 /   0   0   0   0
P28  20   4  37  19 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard



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