Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 050635
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1235 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Even though short range models indicate an upper level shortwave
digging southeast across the Western High Plains today, little if
any precip is expected across southwest and central Kansas due to
the lack of low/mid level moisture across the region. There is
just enough moisture associated with the system in the upper
levels though to support increased cloud cover and possibly a few
flurries toward this afternoon. Otherwise, conditions will remain
fairly dry through Friday night. Similar high temperatures to
yesterday can be expected today with little change to the general
air mass across the region. Look for highs only up into the 30s(F)
again across west central Kansas to near the I-70 corridor in
central Kansas due to the lingering snowpack. Otherwise, highs
will reach up into the 40s(F) elsewhere with near 50F possible in
south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Entire long term forecast is dry for SW KS. In fact, models are
forecasting an extended period of very quiet weather that will
continue through at least Saturday February 13th.

Saturday...The pick day of the weekend. High pressure quickly
rebounds, allowing for moderating afternoon temperatures. Weak
lee troughing will promote gentle SW downslope, sending the
southern 1/2 of the CWA into the mid to upper 50s. Meanwhile,
melting snow will hold the northern zones to near 40.

Sunday...Temperature forecast becomes a little trickier, as a cold
arctic airmass sweeps into the northern plains. Clearly, the brunt
of this arctic air will bypass SW KS, missing us to the NE. Still,
models are in disagreement on how much cold air sloshes into SW KS
on Sunday. 12z GFS drops 850 mb temps from near 6C Saturday, to
near -3C on Sunday. 12z NAM a bit colder, with an 850 temp of -4C
on Sunday. 12z ECMWF is now notably colder than its runs
yesterday. Gusty NW winds of 20-30 mph will have a downslope
component helping to offset some cold air advection, but the wind
will also be coming off the refrigerated snowpack of NW KS. Wanted
to go colder in the max temps grids Sunday, but neither MOS
guidance or the neighbor`s grids supported doing so. Forecasted
40s for now, but there is some potential for a busted temperature
forecast on Sunday.

Monday...Flow becomes highly amplified across North America, with
a 585 dm upper ridge over Nevada, and a 521 upper low over
Michigan. Very strong but dry NW flow will persist over SW KS,
with afternoon NW winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts.
Temperatures will remain near normal.

Tuesday through Thursday...Heights gradually rise over SW KS, as
flow deamplifies, SW US ridge expands onto the plains, and
downslope develops. Gorgeous weather will result. Most of the snow
will have been melted, allowing 50s to return. with 60s across the
SW zones.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Friday
afternoon. Winds will remain light and variable through late
Friday morning as a broad surface high slowly edges eastward
across the Western High Plains. An extremely weak frontal boundary
will push through western Kansas early Friday afternoon turning
winds northwesterly 5 to 15kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  20  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  38  15  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  20  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  45  17  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  35  17  39  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  48  24  54  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...JJohnson


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