Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161123
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
623 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017


.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Another hot, humid and conditionally unstable setup is expected this
afternoon across central and west central Kansas. Higher dewpoints
today will help push apparent temperatures to around 100 degrees in
the more humid eastern counties, say from Hays to Medicine Lodge,
and should fall short of the heat advisory concerns. Dew points will
still reach the 60s in the far west early today, but begin to
decrease with the westerly surface winds developing.

Very similar convective parameters are in place this afternoon with
CAMS such as the ARW/NMM suggesting a repeat of the type of
convective initiation that occurred last evening. Any convection
that develops should be quick to produce a cold pool, and LHP
parameter even more impressive suggesting 3.5"+ size hail possible
with rotating storms most areas ahead of the initial development.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

A hot day is expected saturday, at last for the far southern
counties.  The 850 mb winds turn more southwesterly, developing a
better dry adiabatic heating downslope component, but will be
interrupted by an approaching cold front sometime Saturday or
Saturday evening. Timing of the front will have a large impact of
how warm temperatures get Saturday afternoon and may contribute to a
period of convection and post frontal rain for parts of central
Kansas into Sunday morning. A broad ridge building across the
western states early next week, allowing a rebound from the upper
70s and 80s on Sunday, to the 90s into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017


Decent degree of uncertainty in location/coverage of convection
later this afternoon, into the early evening. Most likely would be a
few discreet storms, with low confidence for prevailing thunder at
any given terminal. However, a few storms could produce locally
severe wind and very large hail between 23 UTC and 02 UTC between
HYS and DDC. Otherwise a VFR forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  69 101  63 /  20  20   0  20
GCK 101  65 101  61 /  20  20   0  20
EHA  99  65 101  62 /  10  10   0  10
LBL 100  67 104  64 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  97  68  96  61 /  30  20   0  40
P28  97  72 101  67 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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