Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 272320
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
520 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SCOTT AND
TREGO COUNTIES FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW BEGINNING
IN THE ELKHART TO SYRACUSE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF WESTERN KANSAS BY DAWN. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 10 TO 14 DEGREES. AN INCH OR 2 IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FAR WEST.

FOR SATURDAY, SNOW WILL BE CONTINUING WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING OVER CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY,
THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND WITH THE MID TO LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST, SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LIFT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE
FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE
OBSERVED. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH OCCASIONAL
BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND
AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES LOOK TO
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY REACHING TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES. THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL RUNS COME IN AND
HAVE A BETTER AGREEMENT OF TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
REBOUND INTO THE 40S THURSDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID TEENS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ALONG WITH AREAS OF SNOW
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT, LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN
THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS BEGINS TO
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  13  27  23  31 /  80  80  60  30
GCK  11  27  23  30 /  70  70  60  20
EHA  12  30  25  31 /  70  40  50  30
LBL  13  29  26  33 /  80  80  60  20
HYS  12  27  21  33 /  50  60  60  40
P28  14  28  24  35 /  80  90  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-
084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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