Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 120633
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
133 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Southwest Kansas will remain in the warm sector today with a
boundary remaining NW of the CWA. We will see downslope low level
southwesterly winds. This will allow for temperatures to mix to
hot values with highs in the 80s. The good news is that critical
fire weather conditions are not expected as afternoon relative
humidities will remain at a moderate level. With the return flow,
overnight lows tomorrow night will be quite mild with most areas
seeing lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

The boundary stalls across the state on Friday with a larger
temperature gradient forecast. Upper 60s northwest to lower 80s
southeast. Warm 850-hPa temperatures will keep the precipitation
chances to a minimum for much of Friday. Conditions do change
Saturday evening and Sunday. A strong front will plow through with
strong northerly winds. Showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out, particularly across the eastern zones. The undercutting
nature of the front along with warm low level temperatures ahead
of it will keep convection at bay until late Saturday night. Per
the EC, only the far SE zones may see strong or even severe, but
the timing on this looks questionable given the capping issues and
late show already mentioned. Most of the CWA will remain dry and
experience strong northerly winds at 30 kt for a few hours. Only
highs in the lower 60s are expected in the wake of the front on
Sunday. The fb morning lows might be a tad too warm right now for
Monday morning and we could see areas of frost again. Beyond this,
the jet stream is forecast to remain well north of the region with
a fairly tranquil weather pattern continuing through the rest of
the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

VFR is expected through TAF pd. There could be some high level
clouds towards the end of the TAF period, however, no further
flight reductions are anticipated as this time. LLWS will
continue through the overnight. More LLWS is possible through the
overnight period tomorrow night as well.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  85  58  75 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  47  85  53  71 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  87  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  50  87  57  79 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  45  82  54  66 /   0   0   0  10
P28  48  82  61  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.