Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301738
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1238 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

An upper level low currently over Nebraska will continue to slowly
spin eastward tonight and into the Upper Mississippi Valley
tomorrow. Meanwhile, a secondary upper level low will dig into the
Four Corners region tonight then into the Southern Rockies
tomorrow. Moisture over western Kansas looks abundant which will
likely bring mostly cloudy skies through tomorrow. The only
exception to this will be across the KS/OK border for the
remainder of this afternoon into this evening. Precipitation
chances look to increase across far southwestern Kansas after
midnight tonight then spread northeastward through the morning
hours. Precipitation chances spread across the entire forecast
area tomorrow afternoon. As for temperatures, lows tonight are
expected to range from the lower 30s across west central Kansas to
lower 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to
range from the lower 50s across west central Kansas to around 60
degrees across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The next closed low will be near Phoenix at sunrise Sunday, but
rapidly weaken into a weak open wave as it arrives in Kansas
late Sunday and Sunday night. Still, lift and moisture ahead of
this arriving system will be sufficient for another round of
scattered rain showers for SW KS, centered on the Sunday
afternoon/evening time frame. With forcing for ascent weakening as
it arrives, kept pop grids conservative (mainly 50% or less), and
rainfall from this system will pale in comparison from what we
have seen recently. Still carrying 0.10-0.20 inch in the QPF
grids, but this may be overdone with this weakening system.
Another cloudy unseasonably chilly day Sunday, with little change
in 850 temps/thickness from Saturday. Highs mainly in the 50s,
well below normal for the first day of May.

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas on Monday, providing a
few more scattered showers and keeping temperatures still well
below normal. The remainder of next week will feature quiet
weather with a pronounced warming trend. Strong high pressure over
Alberta Monday afternoon will evolve into a sharp ridge over the
Rocky Mountains Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon temperatures
will warm several degrees each of these days, although very wet
soils will slow this process down some. Friday will be the warmest
day of this forecast, as high pressure ridge axis spreads into
Kansas. Strong closed low near Los Angeles Friday evening is
progged by ECMWF to eject quickly to the Nebraska panhandle
Saturday afternoon. This evolution would bring strong winds to
SW KS late this week, along with severe convective potential along
the associated dry line. Entering the peak of our severe weather
season, and this will be watched carefully over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR conditions will continue over the next couple of hours with
cloud ceilings rising above 030 later this afternoon. Winds will
generally be from the northwest gusting to around 20 knots at
times.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  39  54  40 /  10  10  40  50
GCK  55  37  53  38 /  10  10  40  50
EHA  57  37  51  38 /  10  20  60  50
LBL  60  39  53  41 /  10  20  50  50
HYS  52  39  53  39 /  20  10  20  50
P28  65  43  61  43 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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