Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180937
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10  10  10   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ031-046-064>066-078>081-088-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH|



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