Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210857
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
257 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE 50 DEGREE MARK LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR SYRACUSE TO PRATT. THE AIRMASS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH ACHIEVED A FEW 50 TO 54 DEGREE HIGHS SO FAR
AS OF 2 PM. MODELS AND MOS PRODUCTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT  SAVE THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WHERE ADVANCING STRATUS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT COULD KEEP STUNT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EFFECTIVELY
WARM THE SURFACE LAYER. THIS CHANGING MESOSCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET
SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. ALTHOUGH DRIZZLE
IS A POSSIBILITY AND THE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION
WILL BE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE, THE SETUP
ISN`T CONDUCIVE TO A SIGNIFICANT DRIZZLE EVENT. THE ATMOSPHERE
NEEDS TO SATURATE AND WILL LIKELY ONLY REALIZE A VERY SHALLOW
LAYER OF UPSLOPE BELOW THE SHORT LIVED ROUND OF WEAK VERTICAL LIFT
BETWEEN 900 AND 800 MB. THE STRATUS WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT OF
THE DIURNAL TREND FOR THE DAY FRIDAY, MAINLY IN THE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHERE THE STRATUS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

STARTING WITH SATURDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA.  THERE WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH LOWER LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS.  THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE BARBER COUNTY AREA FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  THERE STILL LOOKS AS IF IT WILL WARM UP ON SATURDAY,
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL PROGGED 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +10C TO
+12C ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MAX TEMPS.  THEN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS, BRINGING SOME LOWER TO MID CLOUDS WITH IT AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES.  SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AS WELL WITH A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35
MPH.  IN OUR PREVIOUS DAYS, A WIND ADVISORY MIGHT HAVE BEEN
NEEDED, BUT ISSUING THOSE CEASED NOV 1ST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WE WILL BE DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE, AND MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 40S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE HAYS AND LARNED AREAS, AND INTO THE MID
50S DOWN SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART, AS A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
RETURNS.

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
A COOL DOWN, WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH OF I-70 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS ON THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH
OF I-70; A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW FROM SCOTT CITY TO PRATT; AND A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKIN TO DODGE CITY TO
MEDICINE LODGE.  ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON
THANKSGIVING, BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY AND RATHER COLD.  MAX TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 30S IN THE WAKEENEY AND HAYS
AREAS, THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F DEGREES FROM LAKIN TO GARDEN
CITY TO DODGE CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE, AND SHOULD REACH THE MID 40S
DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.  IN THE SNOW AREAS, ONLY
0.2 TO 0.3-INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WARMEST ON
SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNINGS, AND THEN TAKE A PLUNGE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN WYOMING
INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IOWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW
CENTERED WEST OF WICHITA FALLS, TX WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY NOON AND DISSIPATE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING, AND STRATUS
WITH BASES BLO010 CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO DDC 12-14Z AND INTO
HYS BY 15Z. PATCHY FREEZING FOG WITH LOCAL VSBYS NEAR 1 MILE CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM 12-14Z. THE STRATUS GRADUALLY WILL ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 010-020 BY 21Z. PATCHY FOG MAY
REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  31  60  37 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  53  26  61  33 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  56  32  64  35 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  53  28  62  34 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  45  28  58  37 /   0   0  10  10
P28  45  34  60  44 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...RUTHI


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