Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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951
FXUS63 KDDC 041711
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1211 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation and Short Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

A pronounced synoptic scale ridge was entering across the Rockies
today, yielding widespread clear skies. This pattern will continue
through the Short Term period (through Thursday "Day" period). Any
deep tropospheric westerly momentum across the Rockies will hold off
until after the Short Term period, which means a continuation of
fairly light winds given the absense of a leeside trough. Lower
tropospheric temperatures will slowly rise with the approach of the
upper level ridge, with highs Thursday in the 81 to 85F range for
just about the entire west central, southwest, and south central
Kansas region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Thursday and Friday...Dry and warm afternoons. Strong high
pressure ridge axis oriented on the high plains Thursday afternoon
will inch eastward, with the ridge axis traversing SW KS around
sunrise Friday. Still expecting Friday to be the warmest day of
the week, with 850 mb temperatures peaking near 23C. Highs on
Friday in the mid to upper 80s, some of the warmest temperatures
seen so far in 2016. Milder lows in the 50s Friday morning, as
mixing from south winds and boundary layer moisture increase. All
zones will remain dry through Friday night.

Saturday...Still expecting thunderstorm potential to increase
over this weekend. Broad closed cyclone over the Great Basin will
edge just far enough east Saturday afternoon, such that lead jet
streaks and weak vorticity maxima will interact with the high
plains dryline. Highest (chance/scattered) pops were placed over
the western zones Saturday afternoon/evening, as model consensus
keeps the dryline near the CO/KS border through peak heating on
Saturday. While some convective initiation is expected Saturday,
severe potential will be limited, as boundary layer dewpoints
remain marginal in the lower 50s. Storms that do affect the
western counties Saturday will tend to be high-based in an
inverted-V environment, capable of strong outflow winds and some
marginal hail. GFS forecasts CAPE only near 1000 J/kg, which would
keep hailstone size modest. Otherwise, another warm and windy day
Saturday, with gusty south/southeast winds and highs in the low to
mid 80s.

Sunday...Great Basin low will eject NE to southern Wyoming by 7
pm Sunday. A decent shortwave embedded in the cyclone`s
circulation will emerge into the plains in a neutral to slightly
negatively- tilted fashion around peak heating on Sunday. 00z
ECMWF places the associated 996 mb surface low in NW Kansas 7 pm
Sunday, with a strong dryline arcing SE from the surface low
across central Kansas (near the eastern zones). As such, models
continue to favor convective coverage across the eastern zones
Sunday. Shear/instability parameters will be much more favorable
for supercell storm structures Sunday afternoon, with the threat
area being determined by how far east the dryline mixes.
Scattered/chance pops were kept in much of the CWA, as a slower
solution to the parent low may evolve, and moist western Kansas
soils may also deter the dryline from marching as far east as
models depict. Regardless, supercells producing very large hail
and tornadoes are possible Sunday, with the highest potential
across the eastern zones, east of Dodge City.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Quiet aviation weather is forecast through the period as a large
scale high pressure ridge persists. Winds from the north today at 11
to 14 knots will weaken after sunset to less than 10 knots. Winds on
Thursday will switch around to the south as the high pressure center
slowly moves east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  47  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  78  47  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  76  48  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  77  47  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  46  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  49  82  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid



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