Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 021735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1235 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Persistence is a pretty good forecast method through Thursday.
Through the end of the week, western Kansas will remain within the
northern periphery of the large subtropical anticyclone with
southwest momentum across the Rockies to our
northwest...continuing to lead to lee troughing in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. Very warm south
winds will continue. Overnight lows of upper 60s to around 70 will
continue along with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.
Unfortunately, the middle troposphere will also be quite warm, and
despite some leeside convergence, there just will not be any
upper support to favor convective development along the lee trough
across far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas. As a
result, we will keep POPs below 15 percent in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The overall synoptic pattern changes very little through about the
end of the week. An upper level ridge extending across the Southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest will ensure weak steering flow for any
convection generated in the surface trough region over eastern
Colorado. Attempting  to pin down opportunities for storm will be
difficult outside of the short term forecast with this pattern,
however, the GFS MOS was used  for slight chances for showers or
storms late evening/overnight Thursday the far west. Central Kansas
will likely not see any opportunity for convection until later in
the forecast period (Friday or Saturday), when the advancing
vigorous Pacific shortwave swings through the northern Rockies,
effectively pulling the trough/surface low farther out into the
plains during the weekend. Even then chances do not look high, and
both day and overnight temperatures remain warm in the synoptic
warm sector. Like the last couple of days the raw model consensus
high temperatures were favored. Likewise, the low were forecast
with the bias corrected ecmwf MOS which has done a better job with
quite warm overnight lows in central KS, and not near as warm in
the drier, higher elevation air to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday as we
remain in the large warm sector with synoptic south to southwest
winds. Midday through late afternoon wind speeds both today and
Thursday will range 15 to 20 knots sustained at DDC and HYS
terminals with nocturnal winds in the 10 to 15 knot range. Wind
speeds will be slightly lower at GCK closer to the lee trough
axis.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  68  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  97  69  96  68 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  96  70  95  68 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  70  96  69 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  98  69  96  71 /  10  10  20  20
P28  97  71  94  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid


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