Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 172012
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
312 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The surface cold front will remain deep into the panhandles this
afternoon, but begin to turn back north as a warm front by later
this evening. The rapid onset of warm advection by midnight will
support scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms across the
region, which may linger over central Kansas into the early morning
hours on Monday. CAMs are not in great agreement on location of
storm clusters, however the confidence is high for some convective
development in this conditionally unstable environment. Lows for
early Monday do not look to be much warmer despite warm advection,
however may be noticeably warmer in the southeast sections.

The warm front will help scour out the low level moisture, bringing
full insolation back and a bump back into the mid and upper 80s
Monday afternoon. Light south or southwest surface winds though
the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Stronger surface winds are expected Tuesday as low pressure develops
across eastern Co/ NW KS in advance of the next approaching cold
front. Given the warmer conditions and surface dew points
approaching critical levels, red flag conditions could be met in
the afternoon Tuesday. The boundary Tuesday night will turn
surface winds back from the north on Wednesday, with another
comfortable afternoon near climatological highs. During this time
the models carve our a deep slow moving trough across the western
United States, with several upper jet streak segments moving
through the High Plains into the Upper Midwest by. the weekend. If
these model trends persist, good/increasing chances for local
severe thunderstorms and appreciable rainfall can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

In general the model have done poorly by eroding LIFR stratus far
too quickly this morning, and afternoon. The stratus is expected to
begin to lift as a warm front develops in the panhandles this
evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop in the
region latest this evening and overnight, and the low level stratus
will again become a forecast challenge, in terms of it`s westward
extend of redevelopment toward 12 Z Monday. Fog may also be straddles
along the  boundary developing as early as midnight, which is well
represented in the 13km RAP and HRRR, but not so much by the HiRes
WRF`s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  88  64  95 /  30  10  10   0
GCK  55  87  59  94 /  30  10  10   0
EHA  59  88  59  91 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  58  89  61  94 /  30  10  10   0
HYS  56  84  62  94 /  50  20  10   0
P28  60  89  66  95 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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