Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 211723
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1223 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 900 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

WV imagery indicates a weak upper level ridge of high pressure
moving eastward across the Western High Plains while an upper
level trough of low pressure remains anchored across the Pacific
Northwest. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is developing
across southeast Colorado with an attendant dryline extending
southward into northeast New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

High pressure anchored over the upper Midwest this morning created a
gradient across western Kansas and the dry air over the higher
terrain over Colorado. Within this pressure gradient, decent surface
moisture  flux was occurring, as dew points were increasing from the
50s; the short term models were bringing low to mid 60s dew points
into southwest Kansas by late morning. Low stratus will persist this
morning, and a band of elevated waa/isentropic lift induced
showers/thunderstorms may develop and move rapidly east into central
Kansas around 11-14 UTC. The various short term models were also at
odds on how far east to mix out the boundary layer by late
morning/early afternoon. The RAP/HRRR advanced the dry air much
farther east than the NAM/WRF suite of models. At the moment we are
following the NAM/WRF for today`s solution which also would result
in late day convection initiation being slightly farther west.

The location of the developing warm front/dryline zone over the far
west will determined where convection initiation will be possible.
Models like  the WRF-ARW/4km NAM and WRF-NMM have been consistent
developing a cluster of storms somewhere in a Tribune-Syracuse-
Garden City and driving them along the moisture/Storm relative
inflow axis southeast. All modes of severe weather are possible this
evening, as well as an isolated tornado.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Severe weather potential exists again on Sunday with models
developing convective initiation late day early evening along a
northeast-southwest oriented zone which likely represents a further
eastward advanced dryline from previous days.

Temperatures will finally moderate closer to above normal highs
for late May through the week, reaching possible 90 degrees.
Dryline storms may be possible any day of the week before a cold
front moves through the area by late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

MVFR cigs will linger in the vicinity of KDDC and KHYS through
late this afternoon as low level stratus continues to erode west
to east. Otherwise, VFR conditions will develop early this
afternoon at KGCK and persist through early evening. Isolated
thunderstorms are likely this evening across portions of western
Kansas, potentially affecting KGCK with brief MVFR/IFR conditions.
Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected at KGCK, KDDC, and
possibly KHYS briefly this evening before low level stratus
redevelops across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas
late tonight. South to southeasterly winds around 20 to 30kt will
persist this afternoon as a lee side trough of low pressure
strengthens across eastern Colorado. Southerly winds will subside
somewhat tonight with the loss of daytime heating but will remain
gusty at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  62  82  61 /  20  40  40  40
GCK  82  62  85  58 /  50  50  20  20
EHA  88  58  86  55 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  86  61  85  60 /  30  40  20  20
HYS  67  60  81  60 /  20  30  50  50
P28  75  62  81  63 /  20  30  50  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson



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