Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 121026
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
426 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017



.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Main focus this morning was on the temperature curve as the dry
air under clear skies was trending colder faster overnight. We
hedged the forecast closer to the bias corrected HRRR grids which
may bring a few upper single digits over our northeast counties by
12Z. Biggest change was at Elkhart as winds are likely to remain
northerly through the rest of the overnight or even go calm by
early morning. The rest of the day will bring generally light
northeast surface winds due to the broad strong surface high
pressure extending across the Northern Plains into northern
Oklahoma, where the surface front is now. Increasing clouds,
possibly mid level heading into tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Most significantly with respect to the expended timeframe was the
west and northward expansion of the Winter Storm Watch for the
Friday night through Sunday timeframe. The impacts from icing could
be felt as early as early Saturday morning as the NAM and ECMWF
have shown colder solutions than the GFS. Additionally, all have
a signal for overrunning rain showers on the order of a couple of
tenths of an inch moving north out of the panhandles into the
CO/KS border region early Saturday morning. The models as well are
trending towards much higher rain (freezing) amounts, with the
warm intrusion extending well north across the entrenched surface
cold air into Saturday night, yielding more widespread and more
importantly higher freezing rain accumulations. Then going through
Sunday, deeper cold air would overtake the region favoring snow
across at least the western counties, on top of most likely some
significant freezing rain and sleet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

A VFR forecast going forward this TAF period. Northeast surface
winds will remain in the light category, may be as high as 10 to
15 knots at times, but mainly under 12kt. Stratus could become an issue
by Friday morning, outside this TAF window.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  16  29  22 /   0   0  10  30
GCK  40  14  30  21 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  49  19  36  25 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  44  19  31  24 /   0   0  10  40
HYS  30  15  26  18 /   0   0   0  10
P28  38  21  30  25 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon
for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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