Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210518
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1218 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 583 DAM 500MB CENTER NEAR DODGE CITY. THIS RESULTED IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AMIDST THE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WAS STALLING
OUT AND DISSOLVING FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WAS A CORRIDOR OF 53-59F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS WINDS BECOME
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE COLORADO BORDER. WE
EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY 09Z AND LATER TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS A RULE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, LOWS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW
LOWER 50S GIVEN THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS, A BAND OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL, WHICH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS.  EVENTUALLY, THE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BUT AREAS UP ALONG I-70 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z,
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE THE WARM-UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED JUST A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE OF THIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITION THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THIS MORNING. THEN,
A SWATCH OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY AT KGCK AND KDDC. THE DENSE FOG, WTIH VSBYS DOWN 1/4SM
OR LOWER AND CIGS OVC002, WILL PERSIST FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. AFTER
THAT, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13KT TO 16KTS, AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 030.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  76  55  75 /  10  50  50  10
GCK  56  76  51  76 /  10  40  40  10
EHA  54  73  51  76 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  55  76  53  76 /  10  30  30  10
HYS  57  76  54  74 /  10  60  70  10
P28  57  77  57  77 /  10  60  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE



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