Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 262107
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
307 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT TOWARDS THE COLORADO BORDER AND
SPREAD EAST TOWARDS DIGHTON TO DODGE CITY AND ASHLAND BY DAWN.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH NEAR 3 INCHES AT
ELKHART. AREAS EAST OF MEADE AND GARDEN WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE OR A
LIGHT DUSTING THAT INCLUDES DODGE CITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, FROM MIDNIGHT TILL NOON FRIDAY, FOR
SNOW FOR THE FAR WEST 10 COUNTIES FROM GARDEN CITY TO MEADE AND
WEST. SOME 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP TOWARDS MORNING FROM
ELKHART TOWARDS LIBERAL WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AND AROUND 7 TO 12 DEGREES WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY. WINDS PICK UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN
THE FAR WEST NEAR ELKHART WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY, EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING, TO TAPER TO
FLURRIES WITH CLOUDY SKIES AS WEAK UPPER LIFT DECREASES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COLD WITH AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES. WINDS INCREASE, AS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY, WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE ISENTROPIC LEVELS FROM I288 TO I308 FROM BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE IMPROVING FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEFORE 06Z SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THE
PREVIOUS GRIDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONSET AND TRACK OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT SO WILL NOT STRAY FAR ON TIMING. DID
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z BASED
TRACK OF A 400MB PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE I288 TO I308 LEVEL WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GOING, HOWEVER THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR A PERIOD OF
STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z
SUNDAY AS 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS IMPROVES. AT THIS TIME THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BETWEEN 06Z
SUNDAY AND 18Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
WHERE THIS AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250MB JET WILL
PLACE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. SNOW TOTALS OF 3 TO NEAR 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WARM ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO FALL. BASED ON THIS WARMING
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN
TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH
OF DODGE CITY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY ANY SNOW THAT DOES DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
NORTH OF DODGE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE 32 DEGREES DURING THE DAY. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS WARMING SO WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.

THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES EAST
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WARMING WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER GIVEN THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MID LEVEL CIGS WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
AND LIGHT SNOW AT KDDC AND KGCK BY 09-12Z, INTO 18Z. NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 10-15KT GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY BY EVENING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC   8  21  13  28 /  30  30  60  80
GCK   9  20  13  28 /  60  60  50  50
EHA  10  18  12  32 /  80  80  60  40
LBL  10  19  14  30 /  70  70  70  60
HYS   7  21  12  26 /  10  10  30  70
P28  10  22  14  28 /  10  20  50  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR KSZ061>063-074>076-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE



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