Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 170803
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
303 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

...Updated Short term, Long term and Fire Weather discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Model soundings this morning indicating a fairly deep layer of
low level moisture across western Kansas today. These low clouds
will be slow to erode through the day and there even may be a few
break of sun late day near the Oklahoma border, especially in
south central Kansas. Most areas however will stay cloudy
throughout the day. Give this expected cloud cover and a
persistent northeasterly wind do not expect much of a diurnal
change in temperatures today. Am currently favoring trending
towards the cooler guidance which has highs mainly in the mid 60s
to lower 70s. Highs today do have a chance to climb into into the
mid 70s if we can get some sun for a couple of hours but the
better chance is that highs will end up in some locations a couple
of degrees cooler than the mid 60s.

There will also be a chance for some precipitation off and on
during the day, mainly early, but do not expect much in the way of
rainfall accumulations. A better chance for convection will occur
during the overnight hours as an upper level wave moves out of New
Mexico and across southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The first in a series of upper level troughs will be crossing the
western United States early next week. This first upper level
trough move out into the Plains Tuesday night with the better
upper level dynamics being located well north of the I-70
corridor. As this system crosses the Northern Plains early
Wednesday a surface cold front will drop south across western
Kansas which will briefly bring an end to way little warming trend
that will occur Monday and Tuesday. No precipitation is
anticipated with the frontal passage but the high temperatures are
expected to fall back from the 90s on Tuesday to the 80s on
Wednesday.

Once this upper level system lifts north into Canada late
Wednesday the next, stronger, upper level trough will exit the
eastern Pacific and begin to cross the western United States. As
this next system deepens and slowly approaches the central Rockies
late week gusty south wind winds can be expected along with a
warming trend. Precipitation chances will hold off until late week
and on Friday it appears the better chances for convection will
be along the deepening surface trough that will be located over
eastern Colorado as an upper level disturbance exits the base of
the western United states Low/trough and approaches western
Kansas. Given the latest model trends Friday night and Saturday
currently appears to be the next decent chance for precipitation
across all of western Kansas.

Gusty winds, unseasonably warm temperatures, and low afternoon
relative humidity values currently forecast across western Kansas
Tuesday may result in near critical fire weather conditions on
Tuesday afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions will also be
possible Wednesday and Thursday based on the forecast low dew
points and gusty southeasterly winds.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

NAM and RAP models soundings indicating increasing low level
moisture overnight and early Sunday with MVFR conditions
developing between 12z and 15z Sunday for all the TAF sites with
the last area for MVFR ceilings being in the Hays area. Ceilings
may even dip briefly into the IFR category for a short period
early this morning at Dodge City and Garden City. Once these low
clouds do develop these cloud bases will slowly increase slightly
but cloudy skies are expected through early tonight. Cloud bases
will gradually rise during the day into the low VFR category by
the mid to late afternoon. Scattered elevated convection possible
through the overnight hours, mainly north of Dodge City so will be
including VCTS at HAYS and GCK. Winds overnight into early Sunday
will be northeast at 10 to 15 knots.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Fire danger levels will be on the increase early next week as warm
and dry conditions return to western Kansas. Gusty south winds
will develop during the day on Tuesday and given the expected
afternoon relative humidity values across western Kansas critical
or near critical fire weather conditions will be possible,
especially west of a Garden City to Liberal line.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  62  88  64 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  68  56  87  59 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  70  55  88  59 /  10  20  10  10
LBL  71  59  89  61 /  10  30  10  10
HYS  67  59  84  62 /  30  50  20  10
P28  74  63  89  66 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert



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