Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 252300
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Updated pop and weather grids for tonight, in anticipation of a
moisture surge arriving on upslope SE winds. Areas of fog and low
ceilings in stratus are expected for several hours tonight, before
the dryline begins its eastward advance. Not of the question the
strengthening LLJ may kick off isolated convection, but did not
touch pop grids for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Thunderstorm chances pick up Tuesday as short range models indicate
a strong closed off upper level low shifting eastward out of the
Great Basin into the Colorado Rockies tonight, then becoming more
negatively tilted as it moves out across the Front Range Tuesday. As
the system approaches, it will bring about an increasingly divergent
flow aloft across the high plains of western Kansas. Meanwhile, a
surface low will develop early in the day generally across northeast
Colorado with an attendant dryline stretching southeast into
western Kansas. Both will begin to advance eastward Tuesday
afternoon as the closed upper level low moves across the Rockies.
Significant instability will develop ahead of the sharpening
dryline as surface dewpoints climb well into the 60s(F) within a
prevailing southerly flow across eastern and much of central
Kansas. Additionally, a strong +80kt upper level jet is projected
to exit the approaching trough axis, lifting northeast across the
South Plains with a left exit region setting up generally across
central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas Tuesday afternoon
and evening. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible late in the day along and ahead of the dryline as low/mid
level lapse rates steepen.

Location of initial thunderstorm development will be dependent on
how far east the dryline advances before convective initiation
occurs, putting the best chance for thunderstorms across central
and south central Kansas. Due to the uncertainty of how far the
dryline advances, portions of eastern southwest Kansas could be
affected. Although large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary threat, model soundings indicate favorable enough shear
to warrant a heightened potential for tornadoes, particularly
further north closer to the vicinity of the warm frontal boundary,
including the I-70 corridor.

Near normal temperatures can be expected tonight as surface high
pressure departing to our east and a developing surface low in
northeast Colorado returns a southerly flow to western Kansas late
tonight. This will draw slightly warmer air northward into south
central and southwest Kansas in the late overnight hours, not to
mention increasing moisture across the region allowing surface
dewpoints to stay in the 40s(F) out by the Colorado border to the
50s(F) in central Kansas. Look for lows down into the 40s(F)
across west central Kansas to the mid and upper 50s(F) in south
central Kansas. A deepening surface low across northeast Colorado
will enhance warm air advection into southwest and central Kansas
Tuesday raising H85 temperatures to near 20C. Highs will reach the
70s(F) in west central Kansas to well above 80F in south central
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Drier conditions are likely Wednesday as an upper level trough of
low pressure lifts slowly northeast into the Upper Midwest while
weak upper level ridging moves east into the Central and Southern
Rockies. Drier air filtering southward into western Kansas along
with a weaker flow aloft will hinder precip chances Wednesday. Dry
conditions will persist through at least late Thursday afternoon
as weak upper level ridging moves east across the Western High
Plains. Precip chances pick up again Thursday night into Friday as
another upper level trough pushes eastward into the Four Corners
Region.

Cooler temperatures are likely Wednesday in wake of a frontal
passage projected across western Kansas Tuesday night. Colder air
will filter southward into western Kansas during the day Wednesday
lowering H85 temperatures below 10C across much of the area. Look
for highs only up into the 60s(F) Wednesday afternoon with a few
lower to mid 70s(F) still possible in south central Kansas.
Similar temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday as a low
level northeast to easterly upslope flow persists through the end
of the week reinforcing the cooler air mass across the high plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

High confidence that flight conditions will degrade overnight, as
boundary layer moisture spreads into SW KS ahead of approaching
closed low in southern Utah. Consensus of short term models
suggests IFR (or lower) stratus cigs will affect GCK, DDC and HYS
for several hours tonight. Included TEMPO groups for these cigs
and for areas of FG/reduced visibility in BR. Cigs/vis will
improve at GCK/DDC around sunrise as dryline begins to advance
east through these terminals, with improvements a few hours later
at HYS. After 18z, strong SW winds at GCK/DDC 20-30 kts behind the
dryline. Dryline will be in the proximity of HYS Tuesday
afternoon, so included a VCTS/CB mention. Significant severe
convection is possible from near HYS to near P28 Tuesday afternoon
and evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  80  44  68 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  50  77  42  66 /  10  10  10   0
EHA  50  74  41  68 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  50  79  42  70 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  54  78  48  66 /  20  30  30  20
P28  58  84  53  73 /  10  30  30   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner



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