Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261702
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1202 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 930 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

WV imagery indicates a strong closed off upper level low lifting
northeast across northern Colorado into southeast Wyoming and
southwest Nebraska. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is
situated across west central Kansas with an attendant warm front
extending east-northeast into northeast Kansas. Meanwhile, a
dryline extends from the surface low southward across southwest
Kansas into the extreme eastern portion of the Texas Panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

The upper circulation and shortwave trough will become negatively
tilted as it moves into the High Plains this afternoon. As this
occurs, warm front will lift to the north of I-70 while the
dryline moves into south central Kansas. Low level moist flow will
continue ahead of the dryline with surface dewpoints increasing
into the 60s this afternoon. A Pacific cold front is expected to
move out into southwest Kansas to near the Highway 283 corridor
this afternoon. It appears both of these features could provide a
low level trigger for thunderstorm development by late afternoon.

Thunderstorms should fire along the dryline by 4 pm or so along and
east of Highway 281. This area should see the greatest threat for
severe weather in the form of large to very large hail and potentially
strong tornadoes. As the region comes under the exit region of the
upper level jet and vort max, thunderstorms should develop farther
west toward Dodge City which is suggested by the convective allowing
models as well as the NAM and GFS. Very strong 0-6 km bulk shear
on the order of 50-55 knots will overspread the region this afternoon.
CAPE on the order of 3000+ j/kg will exist along and east of the
dryline which could result in baseball to softball size hail in a
few storms. Farther west, instability parameters will be weaker
due to drier boundary layer conditions but 1-2 inch hail will
still be possible along and east of Highway 283.

Thunderstorms will persist into the evening hours over central and
portions of southwest Kansas but it appears all of the activity should
be north and east of the I-70/Highway 281 corridors by midnight. As
the upper low continues to move east overnight, there will be at
least a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across portions
of west central and southwest Kansas later tonight into Wednesday
morning associated with the mid level deformation zone.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Much of Wednesday into early Thursday night should be quiet across
western Kansas as the upper low moves northeast of the region and
a shortwave ridge moves over the central Plains. The models
continue to show another upper level trough digging into the Great
Basin and closing off before moving out over the central High
Plains Friday night. Low level moist return flow will begin across
the southern Plains and into the central Plains by Thursday night.

While the atmosphere will not be nearly as unstable over the region
as it will be today, we should see widespread showers and thunderstorms
developing late Thursday night and spreading northeast through western
Kansas on Friday into Friday night, providing another round of
beneficial rain to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across
central Kansas and possibly as far west as eastern portions of
southwest Kansas late this afternoon, then continuing through
this evening. As a result, periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will be
possible in the vicinity of KHYS and potentially as far west as
KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites
through late this evening. Light and variable winds will persist
across southwest and portions of central Kansas behind an
eastward advancing dryline through early this evening. Variable
gusty winds are then possible mid to late evening from thunderstorm
generated outflow boundaries. Winds are then expected to turn
north-northwesterly 15 to 25kt generally after 06Z as a cold
front begins to push through western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  45  65  41 /  10  20  20   0
GCK  77  43  65  38 /  10  10  20   0
EHA  74  42  65  38 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  79  43  65  40 /  10  10  10   0
HYS  78  46  65  38 /  40  60  30   0
P28  83  52  72  45 /  30  60  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson



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