Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1242 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...Updated Short Term and Fire Weather...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Cirrus thinning out and NE winds diminishing at midday. A pleasant
late summer afternoon with few clouds, light east winds, and
temperatures markedly cooler than yesterday, in the 80s.

Tonight...clear. Light east winds veer SEly by dawn. A wide range
in temperatures expected at sunrise Thursday, ranging from the
upper 40s in Hamilton county to near 70 near Kiowa.

Thursday...Sunny, unseasonably hot, windy and dry...again.
SW flow aloft will persist, between a strong cold trough producing
snow in Nevada, and a 590 dm upper ridge axis near Detroit.
Another round of strong leeside cyclogenesis is progged across NE
Colorado near/east of Denver, which will induce strong S/SW winds
again by afternoon, averaging 20-30 mph. Just like Tuesday, some
gusts near 40 mph can be expected. Strong warm advection on these
south winds will drive temperatures again to unseasonably hot
readings, well into the 90s (normal is near 80). Another
pronounced dryline will hang out over the eastern CWA Thursday
afternoon, separating dewpoints in the 60s and 70s across
eastern/central Kansas, versus 40s across western Kansas. Not
expecting any afternoon convection along this dryline boundary,
and kept pop grids dry (<15%), but have noted that some models
keep insisting that an isolated thunderstorm is plausible near
Barber county during peak heating. 12z NAM now joins the ECMWF
with its QPF fields showing this potential. Far more important
impact will be enhanced fire danger once again, as strong hot dry
winds blow across SW KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Thursday is still shaping up to be a warm, dry, and windy day. As
gusty south winds increase into the 15 to 25 mph range the
relative humidity will be falling back into the 13 to 25 percent
during the afternoon. At this time it appears the lower relative
humidity values will be most likely west and north of Garden City
so will be issuing a Fire Watch for this location on Thursday.

A period of wet weather will then be possible for western Kansas
over the weekend and early next week. An upper level trough/low
will exit the eastern Pacific and move into the western United
States where it will deepen late week into early this weekend. As
this upper low deepens a south southwesterly flow can be expected
across the Rockies and Western High Plains with tropical moisture
beginning to advect northward in this flow. Several upper waves
will also be embedded in this developing southwest flow which
bring improving chances for precipitation to western Kansas over
the weekend. Based on timing from the GFS and ECMWF of a few of
the more significant upper level waves the better chances for
widespread convection across western Kansas will be Saturday night
into Sunday and then again Sunday night into Monday. Periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall is starting to look more and more
likely for some areas of western Kansas from Saturday night
through early Monday. There will be chance for convection west of
a Garden City to Liberal area Friday night but at this time
confidence is not high if these storms will spread too far east
during the overnight hours.

As for temperatures...Temperatures late week are will rebound
back into the 90s and gusty south southeast winds can be expected
Thursday and Friday as surface pressures fall along the lee of the
Rockies. Over the weekend clouds and precipitation will aid in
keeping temperatures more seasonal. Highs on Saturday will range
mainly from 85 to near 90. On Sunday a cold front is forecast to
cross western Kansas which could result in temperatures late this
weekend climbing only into the 75 to near 85 degree range.

Early next week the upper level trough is still forecast be
located across the west/southwest United States and as more upper
waves rotate around the based of this system and move northeast
towards the Central Plains. This will result in a wet start to the
work week as another round of thunderstorms are expected across
western Kansas Monday and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

VFR/SKC through Thursday. Breezy NE winds at midday will trend
light easterly by 00z, and light SEly by 12z Thursday. After
15z Thursday, strong S/SW winds will impact aviation operations
at all airports, averaging 20-30 kts.


Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Issued another red flag warning for fire zones along and west of
US 283 for Thursday afternoon. Another unseasonably hot and windy
afternoon is expected, with S/SW winds averaging 20-30 mph. Just
like Tuesday, some gusts near 40 mph are likely. Compared to
Tuesday, models are less intense with the dry air intrusion into
SW KS Thursday afternoon, with min RH thresholds more marginal
(15-20%). Given the potential impacts are the same, much of the
area has not seen rain for quite some time, and our dewpoint grids
are usually not dry enough behind the dryline anyway, opted to
issue another red flag warning from 1 pm through 8 pm CDT


DDC  86  60  96  69 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  83  52  96  67 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  82  54  93  64 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  85  56  96  67 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  81  59  96  72 /   0   0  10  10
P28  90  68  98  71 /   0   0  10  10


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
Thursday for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.



LONG TERM...Burgert
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