Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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468
FXUS63 KDDC 131142
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
542 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Areal expansion of stratus will be the main forecast challenge
heading through the morning hours, and should have a significant
impact of temperature trends through the day across the far north.
Some southeastward development of freezing fog is not out of the
question this morning, however the probability for freezing drizzle
in these areas of stratus is not looking quite as probable at this
time. A large temperatures gradient is expected this afternoon in
excess of 30 degrees from the Elkhart area which should be in the
60s...to Hays where highs will not likely exceed the 30s. A
shortwave now moving into the northern Rockies will affect the
northern and central high plains region by the overnight, having
very little impact on western Kansas other than pushing a cold
front/wind shift across the region before Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Models have been consistent with a followup/secondary vort lobe
rotating through a bit farther south about 24 hours later which
will improve chances for rain or snow late Sunday night into very
early Monday morning. The remainder of the forecast period will
see rising thicknesses and more northwest flow aloft, resulting in
a warming trend through at least Thursday. Could not rule out
another 80 degree reading by Thursday as a warm dry downslope
pattern once again develops and possibly critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Sunday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR to IFR stratus will impact the Garden City and possibly the
Dodge City terminals this morning. VFR cigs could develop at Hays.
Look for all the lower cigs to diminish by around or after 18z.
Light southeasterly winds will increase from the south and become
gusty to 25 knots. The winds are expected to decrease with the
loss of daytime heating. Low stratus could redevelop late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  30  56  31 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  52  29  57  30 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  67  36  58  32 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  58  32  58  30 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  38  27  51  31 /  10   0  10  20
P28  43  31  58  33 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard



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