Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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934
FXUS63 KDDC 242333
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
633 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A nearly stationary front was situated across southwestern Kansas
this afternoon and low level moisture was collecting on the cool
side of the front over western Kansas. A significant change in
the large scale pattern will occur over the next few days. Upper
level ridging over the southern Rockies will gradually shift
westward into the four corners region through Thursday, with
northwesterly mid to high level flow becoming established over the
plains. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be situated
across the central and southern plains and thunderstorm outflow
will have an effect on its placement from day to day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Lots of mid level cloud and early morning thunderstorm outflow
have resulted in cooler temperatures today. Thunderstorms are
possible late this afternoon along a nearly stationary front over
southwestern Kansas and in the upslope region of eastern Colorado.
Any storms developing in eastern Colorado may move into western
Kansas this evening and overnight if an organized cluster
develops.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

There are small chances for thunderstorms through next week
as shortwave troughs embedded in northwesterly flow move across
the plains, with a quasi-stationary front over the southern and
central plains. This time of year it`s hard to rule out
thunderstorms when western Kansas is situated along the southern
edge of the westerlies where fronts tend to stall out. High
temperatures will be cooler in the lower to middle 90s for the
most part, but temperatures could stay in the upper 80s on any day
that features widespread cloudiness and thunderstorm outflow. The
best chance for the cooler days is Wednesday through Saturday. A
few of the storms could be marginally severe with large hail and
damaging winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

There is increased confidence that a fairly organized MCS will
roll east-southeast across southwest Kansas late tonight. The
greatest impacts will most likely be at GCK and DDC terminals,
where there will likely be a 1 to 3 hour period of heavy
thunderstorm activity, including 35 to 55 mph winds and IFR/MVFR
conditions in lower visibility/ceiling with the storms. After the
convection clears in the early morning hours Monday, there should
be a northeast wind gradually becoming southeast by Monday
afternoon at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  91  70  93 /  60  30  20  20
GCK  69  91  69  93 /  60  20  20  20
EHA  69  92  68  94 /  60  20  20  20
LBL  70  93  69  94 /  60  20  20  20
HYS  69  90  70  93 /  30  20  20  20
P28  74  94  72  94 /  60  40  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid



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