Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 252006
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS
AGAIN TONIGHT AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
H5 VORT MAXIMA EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN VICINITY OF THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE THEN PROJECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AMPLE INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND FAVORABLE ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL HEIGHTEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS,
PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL FAVOR
THE STRONGER STORMS.

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS
DOWN INTO THE 70S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS
AFFECTED BY STORMS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ENHANCE WARM
AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL UP INTO THE
90S(F) WITH NEAR 100F POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S(F) TO NEAR 70F IN SOME
LOCALES, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW COUNTIES WHERE
HEAT INDICES OF 105 COULD BE REACHED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ONLY SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO, SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA,
AND NORTHWEST KANSAS EFFECTIVELY SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY AS THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS IS
PROJECTED TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS WELL. GENERALLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS.

EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AS A PREVAILING LEE
SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS PUSHING H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR 30C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30C NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED
AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100F ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND UP NEAR THE I-
70 CORRIDOR. STILL, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 90S(F) TO NEAR
100F WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWER
HIGH TEMPERATURES YET CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROJECTED TO PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID TO LATE
EVENING, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KGCK. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
KHYS AND KDDC. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15KT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR
AND ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71 100  72 102 /  50  20  20  10
GCK  69  99  71 101 /  50  40  40  10
EHA  69  99  70 101 /  50  20  20  10
LBL  71 100  72 102 /  40  20  20  10
HYS  72  99  72 102 /  50  30  40  10
P28  75 101  75 102 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-066-
081-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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