Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 111102
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
For today, westerly and dry upper level flow will prevail with only
some high level cirrus cloudiness. A surface trough of low pressure
will move slowly into western Kansas with light south to
southwesterly winds of 5 to 12 mph. Highs should make it to around
90 to 92 degrees, depending on how thick the cirrus is, with around
94 at Hays. A few records highs could be set or be close with
Medicine Lodge, Hays, and the Stafford areas. Medicine Lodge record
is 88, Hays is 95. Dodge City is 94 degrees.
For tonight, a strong shortwave trough will push across the Northern
Plains, driving a cold front across western Kansas, mainly after
midnight. Light and variable winds will become north at 20 to 35
mph. No rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage. Overnight
lows will be in the mid 50s with mostly clear skies.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
For Monday, a shortwave trough will be moving into the Great Lakes
with a large ridge of cooler surface high pressure pushing into the
Central Plains. Initially strong winds will be found just in back of
a cold front across western Kansas of 20 to 30 mph, then as the
ridge builds into western Kansas in the afternoon, the winds will
gradually slow to 10 to 20 mph. Relative humidities could fall to
around 15 percent, however winds will be coming down as the RH
lowers in the afternoon, so no fire weather hazards are forecast
except for a minimal threat. Highs will be much cooler in back of
the cold front with highs in the mid to upper 70s. The warmest will
be in parts of south central Kansas.
For the period of Tuesday into next Saturday, a mainly dry forecast
will prevail. A secondary cold front comes into the Central Plains
on Friday with another shortwave trough, however current thoughts,
precip chances will stay below 15 percent. Some models show some
very light rainfall chances mainly east and south of Dodge City on
Friday and Friday night. Highs will be around 80 into Thursday ahead
of the next cold front, and only around 70 on Friday and Saturday.
Lows will be in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Light south to southwesterly winds will persist across
western Kansas through early this evening as a weak lee side trough
of low pressure remains anchored near and along the Colorado border.
Winds will then turn northerly 15 to 25kt overnight as a cold
front pushes southward across western Kansas.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 91 56 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 92 53 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 91 55 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 92 55 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 94 54 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
P28 90 57 79 46 / 0 0 0 0