Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 051750
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR GARDEN CITY BY MID
MORNING, THEN NEAR DODGE CITY AROUND NOON, AND FINALLY AT MEDICINE
LODGE AROUND 7 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12 TO
18 MPH WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
AND RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 WITH THE WARMEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

FOR MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY EVENING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. INITIAL
LOAD OF WPC QPF GIVES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4 INCH TO NEARLY 2
INCHES NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER SOME STORMS,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM, COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS, BETWEEN
DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KT AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KT WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-22KT
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD KGCK BY 15-17Z,
THEN KDDC BY 18-20Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  87  61 /  20  10  80  60
GCK  98  70  84  60 /  10  30  80  40
EHA  98  69  83  60 /  10  20  80  40
LBL  97  72  87  63 /  10  10  80  60
HYS 100  72  83  61 /  20  30  80  30
P28  98  74  92  66 /  10  10  90  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE


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