Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190520
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1120 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Temperatures late this afternoon look highly probably to fall into a
narrow range of upper 60s under the increasing clouds region of
the west, to lower 70s near the surface front in central KS. The
latest bias corrected HRRR was trending this way. Beyond that, the
forecast problem becomes the increasing moisture, low clouds and
fog that is probably going to develop between 9 and 12 z.
Dewpoints will increase into the 40s on light south winds, driving
dew point depression to 2 or 3 degrees at most in the far west.
Dense fog and stratiform cloud bases a should fall below 400 ft
across central Kansas by the middle of the night, and there may be
portions of the area where dense fog becomes widespread enough to
impact travel at least locally by early morning Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

The low clouds and fog may persist for several hours early Sunday
morning before a significant improvement is noticed. The moisture
advection will continue and showers may develop by the afternoon
hours from south to north. The consensus of the convective allowing
models suggest late evening thunderstorms over eastern Colorado that
have a low probability of affecting any of our counties, and a
larger area of showers and embedded convection across central
Oklahoma into south central Kansas through midnight with mainly a
lightning risk.

A relative dry period then follows through at least about Late
Thursday through Friday when the ECMWF and the GFS both show the
next vigourous shortwave move though the area with a frontal passage
to follow. This should be a period of higher than average surface winds
across the entire region, possibly with windy conditions through
the overnight Thursday - important with all the ice storm debris
burning continuing. Friday into next weekend may be a return to
the climatological normal for this time of year, but the colder
air does not penetrate very far equatorward for sustained winter
like temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017


Models remain in good agreement with IFR and LIFR stratus and fog
developing at all three taf sites between 09z and 12z Sunday. The
area more favorable for the lower visibilities and ceilings will
be near and east of Hays and Dodge City. Winds overnight will
continue to be from the south southeast at around 10 knots.

The stratus and fog will slowly erode early Sunday and based on
where the deeper depth of near surface moisture is forecast the
fog and stratus is expected to give way to VFR conditions by 158z
Sunday at GCK and between 15z and 18z at DDC and HYS. South to
southeast winds at around 10 knots will increase into the 15 to 20
knot range early Sunday Afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  65  46  68 /   0  30  30   0
GCK  42  66  41  67 /   0  10  20   0
EHA  41  67  39  66 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  43  70  40  69 /   0  20  20   0
HYS  45  65  48  67 /   0  20  30   0
P28  47  63  52  72 /  10  50  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert



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