Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200858
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
358 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...Updated short and long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Upper air analysis showed a broad upper trough over the Great
Lakes region while high pressure was centered over the Desert
Southwest. The strongest mid/upper level flow extended from the
northern Rockies into Midwest and Ohio Valley with western Kansas
being along the southern fringe of the upper level flow. Low level
southerly flow was developing across the central High Plains as
surface high pressure moves east out of the region. This will allow
better low level moisture with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s to
move northward across western Kansas today. With strong daytime
heating, mean layer CAPE values are progged to increase to around
1500-2000 j/kg. A strong veering profile through the low-mid
levels of the atmosphere will yield 0-6km deep layer shear values
around 40 knots or so. Convective allowing models are all pointing
to widely scattered thunderstorms breaking out by mid afternoon
along a weak surface trough over far southwest into west central
Kansas. Should be sufficient shear and instability for a few
supercell thunderstorms with hail around baseball size and
damaging wind gusts. Some of the CAMs are suggesting the potential
for thunderstorms getting organized and propagating southward
across far southwest Kansas into the evening but most suggest
storms will be dying out before midnight.

Warmer temperatures are in store for today as the low/mid level
warm advection continues. Highs should top out in the mid 90s to
around 100 in a few locations. Overnight lows tonight will be
warmer as well.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Wednesday afternoon and evening will see another round of scattered
thunderstorms across central and southwest Kansas as strong instability
remains over the region. A weak upper level shortwave trough moves
out of the Rockies which should help sustain thunderstorms into
the nighttime hours and farther east across the area. Upper flow
becomes a little more westerly by Thursday. Another shortwave
trough moving east across the northern Plains will force a cold
front southward into the central High Plains which should focus
more thunderstorm development Thursday evening. A stronger
shortwave across the northern Plains on Friday will push the cold
front south across western Kansas through the afternoon and
evening with possibly even more widespread showers and
thunderstorms along and behind the front.

After a few days of upper 90s to low 100s temperatures through the
middle part of the week, cooler temperatures will be moving into
the region behind the front. High temperatures through the weekend
should stay in the 80s, with highs possibly staying in the 70s on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through much of this TAF period at all
the terminals. Winds will increase from a southerly direction at
most locations with gusts to around 20 knots. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop across west central and far
southwest Kansas Tuesday afternoon. Garden City will be the most
likely area impacted and will carry VCTS there. Hays and Liberal
could also see storms in the vicinity depending on areal and
temporal extent but confidence is lower at these terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  70  97  69 /  10  30  10  30
GCK  99  69 101  67 /  30  30  20  40
EHA  97  67 101  67 /  20  30  20  30
LBL  97  69 100  69 /  20  30  10  40
HYS  96  70  97  70 /  40  50  20  40
P28  95  70  95  70 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard



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