Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240859
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
259 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS EXITING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL MERIDIONAL FLOW
WEAKENING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A
CLEARING TREND IN PROGRESS OVER WESTERN KANSAS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AT THE SURFACE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS SKIES CLEAR AND THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STRENGTHENS. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE WITH ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.

THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BRING
CLEAR SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
SHIFT IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTH BY
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOW 40S
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVES INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TONIGHTS LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
GUIDANCE...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE FORECAST DURING THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) WILL BE THE ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND
SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE
FAVORED OVER BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL GFS SOLUTIONS AS
THE GFS MODELS APPEAR TO BE FALLING INTO THEIR BIASES OF SHEARING
OUT POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY TOO AGGRESSIVELY AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EAST.  BOTH OF THE GFS SOLUTIONS EFFECTIVELY KEEP ALL THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION...AND ARE
OVERALL WEAKER IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DEVELOPMENT. THE MORE
SOUTHERN, DEVELOPED SOLUTION IS FAVORED AND WILL ALSO TAP INTO A
FAIRLY DECENT RESERVOIR OF LOW LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. THE
GENERAL POSITIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS WILL
FAVOR COLD AIR SPILLING SOUTH ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN BODY
OF THE STORM SYSTEM (WHICH BY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE CENTERED
SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS). IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM DO INDEED SHOW THE ENTIRE TROUGH SHEARING
OUT BY LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, SUCH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
EVENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED, CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. SHOULD THE STORM BE MORE DEVELOPED THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTED (AND DOES NOT SHEAR OUT AS MUCH SATURDAY), THEN
A MORE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. THIS
IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT, THOUGH.

AFTER THIS STORM PASSES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL. AS A MAJOR RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER ARCTIC AIR SOURCE AT THE
READY. GOING INTO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE APPEARING LIKELY WITH PERHAPS A DAY OR TWO OF MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PINPOINTING WHICH DAY WOULD BE THE COLDEST IS VERY
DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SENSITIVE NATURE OF THE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THAT WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN THE EVOLUTION OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANY SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF
THE UPPER JET...AS WELL AS EASTWARD TRANSLATION...COULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE DEGREE AND DURATION OF ANY ARCTIC AIRMASS
INTRUSION ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

VFR CIGS WILL DISSIPATE AS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT
STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE
12Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  25  60  25 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  43  23  60  24 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  47  28  62  24 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  46  24  64  25 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  41  24  51  24 /   0   0   0  10
P28  42  27  56  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...GERARD



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