000
FXUS63 KDDC 071932
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
132 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

Short range models indicate weak upper level ridging moving eastward
out of the Central Plains today. Meanwhile, the upper level
shortwave in the Pacific Northwest will deepen as it digs southeast
across the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains later today
bringing the possibility for precip to portions of western Kansas
this evening into early Saturday. As the upper level system
approaches, an attendant cold front ahead of it will push southeast
across southwest and central Kansas this afternoon while moisture
continues to pool ahead of the boundary. Although the flow aloft
is expected to remain fairly weak, precip is likely to develop
sometime this evening across west central and extreme southwest
Kansas in a band of increased H7 frontogenesis, then spread
southeastward overnight into early Saturday morning. Based on
NAM/GFS model soundings, initial precip type is expected to be
liquid with a switchover to snow generally west to east as colder
air surges southward dropping vertical profile temperatures below
freezing. Snow amounts may be a challenge though depending how
much liquid falls beforehand, potentially melting initial
snowfall. Still, both the NAM and GFS indicate QPF signals of just
over a quarter inch across extreme southwest Kansas toward 12Z
Saturday morning. As a result, upward of 1 to 2 inches of snow
may be possible generally along and west of Highway 83 in far
southwest Kansas with lighter amounts eastward. An advisory
may be needed eventually Saturday morning for western portions
of southwest Kansas.

Temperatures will be cooler today as colder air begins to surge
southward into western Kansas in wake of a cold front pushing
through the region by this afternoon. The NAM/GFS show the H85
0C isotherm dipping southward into central Kansas by early to mid
afternoon resulting in cooler high temperatures near the I-70
corridor. Highs are expected well up into the 40s(F) with near
50F possible here with the 50s(F) further south. A few lower to
mid 60s(F) may be possible closer to the Oklahoma border depending
on the timing of the frontal boundary. Look for lows down into the
20s(F) Friday night as arctic high pressure pushes southward out
of the Northern Plains into Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

Saturday night/Sunday/Monday:

We will see moderating temperatures during this period. The warmest
looks to be Monday as a result of downslope flow and warm air advection.
Widespread 70sF still looks good attm. No precipitation is expected
during this period. Lows will moderate as well and minimums Monday morning
could end up relatively mild - mid to upper 30sF with 40sF for Tuesday
morning.

Tuesday and beyond:

Attention then turns to Tuesday evening into Wednesday. The 00Z ECMWF
was looking pretty ominous and hinting at a blizzard. Well, the 12Z EC
is still fairly closed off compared to the 12Z GFS. The overall system
is slightly weaker with lower QPF and resultant snowfall amounts than
compared to the 00Z EC. The 12Z GEM is in fair agreement with the 12Z
GFS. Both 00Z/12Z EC runs seem more amplified and than the ensemble
mean. Putting all this together, there is very large uncertainty if
we will get a progressive trof with some light rain/snow or a wrapped up
system that could potentially be a high impact event. With the large
uncertainty, felt it was safe to stick with the conservative allblend
solution for pops and temperatures. Stay tuned as models will hopefully
come into better consensus. The overall trend for either some rain or
snow and cooler temperatures exists during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

A surface cold front will plunge southward through western Kansas
this afternoon, bring a wind shift early in the Taf period. North
winds will blow at 20 gust to 30 mph for much of the rest of the
afternoon. Only cirrus will blanket the sky early, but overnight,
skies will become cloudy with mvfr cigs and IFR visibilities
developing after 06z in snow. Winds after 08z or so will be
northeast at around 18 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  39  26  64 /  80  80   0   0
GCK  25  43  26  65 /  80  70   0   0
EHA  28  38  28  65 /  90  80   0   0
LBL  27  37  26  65 /  90  80   0   0
HYS  25  48  26  65 /  40  40   0   0
P28  27  35  24  60 /  80  80   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to
3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ Saturday FOR KSZ061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke