Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180305
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1005 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the Western
High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is
anchored across eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Short term confidence is low. In these weakly forced, late Summer convective
patterns, it is often difficult to get a sense of how the thunderstorms
will drift and evolve. Recently, the models have not been doing that
well, further decreasing confidence. With that said, it looks like
the most probable situation is that convection will develop across
the higher terrain of Colorado and then slowly drift towards western
Kansas. As a result, have the higher pops in the western zones and
lower values to the east. With such weak flow, it is difficult to imagine
that convection would intensely propagate across the state. For severe,
chances look low, although an isolated strong to severe storm with
wind and hail cannot be completely ruled out, particularly for far
southwest Kansas late tonight.

For tomorrow, if there is any convection, it would be across the far
southeast zones. Drier air moves in, so the bulk of the forecast district
will remain dry. With the drier forecast, temps will be able to rebound
a bit with widespread lower 90s forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

The weekend appears to be mainly dry, except an isolated storm. The
specifics of this are unknown at this time and the fb pops are good
for now. Highs will continue in the 90s with lows mainly in the 60s
to 70s.

The long term models show a continued dry and warm pattern prevailing
for much of the extended period. Storm coverage looks fairly isolated.
The fb pops and temps grids look like a good solution at this time,
given the always present uncertainty that exists in weakly forced
convective regimes across southwest Kansas during late Summer and in
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 524 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Large uncertainty surrounds convective impacts for the terminals
this evening. With so much variation between the WRF runs, the
RAP/HRRR, and current regional trends, it seems best to maintain
VCTS this evening near LBL and watch for amendments elsewhere,
where the where the risk does not appear high. Some moderate wind
shear may develop overnight, however the risk of stratus impacting
operations does not appear high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  94  65  95 /  20  20  10   0
GCK  63  92  64  94 /  20  10   0  10
EHA  62  92  63  93 /  30  10   0  20
LBL  64  94  65  95 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  64  92  63  95 /  20  10   0  10
P28  68  95  68  95 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell



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