Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1111 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER CLOSED
OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST U.S. COAST, AND
ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND AROUND FRIDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME,
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE STARTING TO FLATTEN OUT AS A ZONAL FLOW.
THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TODAY, AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW AT 16G26MPH. IT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS FROM HODGEMAN COUNTY TO
ELLIS COUNTY AND NORTHEASTWARD. TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY, WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH.
SINCE THE HAYS, LACROSSE AND ST. JOHN AREAS WILL BE UNDER THICKER
CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GARDEN
CITY TO DODGE CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING, AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AND SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR, PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
DROP TO NEARLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE SUNDOWN THIS EVENING, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH
OF I-70, AND THE MID 20S DOWN ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BROAD ANTICYLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
ROCKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
TRAJECTORIES WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULT
WILL BE MILD NOVEMBER MAX TEMPERATURES, WITH THE WARMEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND THE COOLEST IN THE EAST. THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE RETREATING COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AND THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT. BY SATURDAY THE LOWER TROP WILL BE EVEN WARMER AND THERE
CERTAINLY IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE MAX TEMPERATURES COULD TOP
READINGS THAT ARE REALIZED ON FRIDAY.

BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE ATTENTION WILL BE TURNING TO AN
ADVANCING ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS THE FRONT MOVING
ACROSS MY CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL BE
RATHER SHALLOW AND A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS TYPICALLY WILL ADVANCE QUICKER THAN COMPUTER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THAT WITH ZONAL FLOW
THE ARCTIC AIR MAY BEGIN TO BE ERODED DURING THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PD WITH JUST SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUING TODAY. 15-25 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KT
FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  26  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  48  23  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  51  30  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  26  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  44  21  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
P28  50  25  54  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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