Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEND TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROJECTED TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING INCREASED CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH A
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITHIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON PW
VALUES AND QPF FIELDS, SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE MORE READILY
AVAILABLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING AN ALREADY PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SHOWING H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 20C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS RAISING
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW MORE LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CLOUD
COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A LEE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S, WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL AT GCK, DDC, AND HYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWEST
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT HYS AND AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND WILL NOT YET FORECAST IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  64  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  83  61  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  84  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  84  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  75  61  84  63 /  10  10   0  20
P28  80  66  89  63 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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