Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 222045
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
345 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

The HRRR for several runs has been insistent on developing a
strong cold pool with outflow spreading southeast across western
and central Kansas, but the HRRR likely is being far too
aggressive (as usual) with outflow. Model soundings are largely
uncapped by late afternoon, and a few surface based thunderstorms
may develop along the surface trough line from north central into
southwest Kansas. With high dewpoint depressions, there will be
some potential for microbursts. The thunderstorms along the trough
line most likely will dissipate before midnight.

As the Pacific Northwest upper level trough progresses across the
northern United States, a Pacific cold front will move into the
central part of the country Saturday. The front will enter
northwest Kansas and should extend from eastern Iowa across north
central Kansas to southeast Colorado by Sunday morning. A second
minor upper level trough that was near the British Columbia coast
early today will reach the Northern Plains Sunday and reinforce
the weak Pacific cold front Sunday. The front most likely will
advance to near the Oklahoma border by Monday morning.

A few high based thunderstorms may develop near the front
Saturday afternoon, but the plume of exceedingly warm mid level
temperatures over the frontal zone will keep coverage minimal.
Once again, anything that forms will have the potential for
production of high winds with very high downdraft CAPE values.
Chances for more widespread thunderstorms are better Sunday night.

Guidance has been a few degrees too high on maximum temperatures
in southwest Kansas the past few days, most likely as a result of
anomalously high evapotranspiration. This trend is likely to
continue today, and maximum temperatures were adjusted down a bit
in areas that received the most rainfall in the past week. Heat
advisory criteria were not met for any station Thursday, and it is
not at all certain that advisory criteria will be met today. The
GFS looks considerably too warm again Saturday, but it is likely
that temperatures will be two or three degrees warmer than today
in most areas with downslope southwest low level flow and slightly
warmer H8 temperatures. It is possible that heat advisory criteria
will be met briefly at a few stations Saturday afternoon, so an
advisory will be issued for Saturday in order to make a pretty
picture with neighboring sites.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

The subtropical high in the central part of the United States
will weaken and evolve into an elongated ridge across the southern
part of the country early next week, and minor waves rippling
across the north side of the ridge will provide opportunities for
thunderstorms nearly every day. Anticipating how mesoscale
mechanisms will evolve in the long term is an exercise in
futility. Temperatures will be near season averages on most days,
although the potential exists for cooler values if nocturnal
convective clusters linger into the morning hours and provide cool
outflow that could keep highs in the 80s in some areas.

As an upper level trough moves across the Northern Plains Sunday,
the central part of the country will be in the entrance region of
the jet streak associated with the upper level trough. Weak upward
vertical motion will erode the mid level warm plume, and scattered
thunderstorms can be expected to develop Sunday afternoon and
evening along and behind the weak surface boundary across southern
Kansas. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday as a consequence of
increased cloud cover and the invasion of slightly cooler air
behind the weak Pacific front. Thunderstorms are likely to linger
into the evening Sunday, and evolution of a modest low level jet
Sunday evening could support development of a nocturnal cluster in
central and eastern Kansas. Outflow from the cluster may maintain
a boundary that will wallow in western Kansas Monday, and another
cluster of thunderstorms is possible Monday night near the old
baroclinic zone. The models suggest that another minor upper level
trough in the westerlies will approach Tuesday, and another round
of thunderstorms is possible Tuesday afternoon and night. More
thunderstorms can be expected Wednesday evening and night near the
outflow boundary from the Tuesday night event. Yet another area of
thunderstorms may propagate from the northern Plains into Kansas
Thursday night.

The upper level high will retrograde to the southwestern part of
the country by late in the week, and a more significant upper
level trough will dig into the Mississippi Valley Friday. This
evolution will support a front with some actual cooling on Friday
along with more thunderstorms. Temperatures are likely to remain
cool through next weekend, but warmer weather will return early in
August. However, it is likely that another surge of cool air will
spread into the central part of the country around 3 August,
followed by several days of mild weather. It appears likely that
there will be occasional invasions of cool air in August, and
there is little indication that there will be an extended period
of hot weather. The current episode of heat may be the most
notable one of the summer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

VFR conditions will continue through Saturday. A strong
subtropical high centered over northwest Oklahoma will move little
but will begin to weaken slightly Saturday. A vigorous upper level
trough in the Pacific Northwest will advance into the Dakotas by
Saturday afternoon. At the surface a weak low was in northeast
Nebraska early this afternoon with a trough extending across
northern Kansas into southeast Colorado. A weak mid level area of
low pressure was centered in northwest Kansas.

A feed of rich high level tropical moisture from the Pacific will
support scattered high level cloudiness aoa 250 through Saturday.
Scattered thunderstorms will persist across northwest Kansas into
southern Nebraska this afternoon, and more isolated thunderstorms
are likely to form near the surface trough from northern Kansas
across west central Kansas. Microbursts are possible with any high
based thunderstorm that forms in this environment. The
thunderstorms are likely to weaken to nothing more than sprinkles
by midnight. A few showers are possible late tonight and early
Saturday in west central Kansas under the high level moisture
plume, but these likely will remain west of the terminal
locations.

A weak Pacific cold front will approach northwest Kansas late
Saturday morning and is expected to become stationary from north
central Kansas into southeast Colorado Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73 102  73  97 /  10  10  10  40
GCK  71 102  70  97 /  20  20  20  30
EHA  72 101  71  98 /  20  20  20  40
LBL  72 104  72 100 /  10  10  10  30
HYS  74 104  72  95 /  20  20  20  30
P28  75 105  76 101 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ030-031-045-046-065-
066-079>081-089-090.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ044-064.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Ruthi


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