Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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427
FXUS63 KDDC 201721
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS IT
MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH A +70KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, A LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT
IN DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MUCH OF
KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. ALSO FACTORING IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT HIGHS
ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F) TO NEAR 60F. LOWS ARE EXPECTED BACK DOWN
INTO THE 40S(F) WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION, WITH AMOUNTS FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH COMMON. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY, WITH
COOL HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING
RAIN FRIDAY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT,
THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE PROGRESSED INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER, IT IS LIKELY THAT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WITH COOL AIR REMAINING OVER WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE ITS CHARACTERISTIC BIAS OF
OVERDEVELOPING THE LEE TROUGH DESPITE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE, SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S, ALONG WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUT IT
IS LIKELY THAT ANY TORRENTIAL RAINS WOULD BE SOUTH OF KANSAS. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE
FLOW, WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WE MAY FINALLY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LEE TROUGH AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT COULD CAP SOUTHERN
PLAINS CONVECTION ENOUGH TO ALLOW HIGH THETA-E AIR TO SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THEREFORE, ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS SEEN. A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
NORTH AROUND 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  42  65  48 /   0   0  10  80
GCK  57  44  63  48 /   0   0  10  80
EHA  56  45  61  48 /  10  10  30  70
LBL  59  44  65  48 /  10   0  20  80
HYS  53  42  63  47 /  10   0  10  60
P28  58  47  66  50 /  10   0  10  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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