000
FXUS63 KDDC 032045
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MOST OF THE ACTION IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY MIDNIGHT, THE
THERMO PROFILE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A FORECAST SOUNDING DID
SHOW 0.5C WARM TONGUE FOR MEDICINE LODGE BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT FOR RIGHT
NOW, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.
SPEAKING OF, HAVE RELIED ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF AND NAM,
WHICH SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL COOKBOOK... 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT, 700-HPA OMEGA AND
BAROCLINIC BAND, 800-600-HPA FRONTOGENESIS DO GIVE SUPPORT TO THE PHYSICAL
REASONING AS WHY THE MODELS ARE BEHAVING AS SUCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE WRF-NMM ACTUALLY SHOWS A STRONGER BAND AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WILL GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. HAVE A 2-4" BAND OF SNOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS A 50 MILE BUFFER ZONE
SURROUNDING IT. HAVE THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS HAYS.
THE RAP SHOWS THE FRONTO BAND STRONGER IN THIS AREA AND HAS HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ALONG WITH 00Z GUIDANCE SPLIT THAT DETAIL.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH FROM WHAT I HAVE IT NOW. AGAIN,
WITH INCREASED POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, FEEL THE POSITIVE TREND COVERS
THE SITUATION FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORM EVENT AS CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
GCK AND DDC BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR. TONIGHT VFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
IMPROVES IN THE 800MB TO 600MB LEVEL. LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  24   7  38 /  80  80  10   0
GCK  15  24   6  38 /  60  60  10   0
EHA  16  23  10  39 /  70  70  10   0
LBL  17  24   9  38 /  80  80  10   0
HYS  15  28   6  40 /  50  50   0   0
P28  19  25   9  39 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT