Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171007
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
507 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively dry conditions continue across southwest Kansas
  through early Wednesday with a 20-30% chance for rain and
  isolated thunderstorms across southern south central Kansas
  late Wednesday afternoon/evening.

- Below freezing temperatures are expected to return early
  Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

WV imagery indicates a weak southwest flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains downstream of a closed off low anchored
across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a very broad area of
high pressure is sinking southward out of southern Canada into
the Northern Plains.

Tranquil conditions are forecast throughout the period despite the
SREF indicating a northerly flow aloft quickly developing and
intensifying across the high plains of western Kansas as an upper
level shortwave trough embedded within a broader system drops
southward through the Upper Midwest. Much drier air in the lower/mid
levels reinforced by surface high pressure shifting south through
the Dakotas into the Central Plains will help keep any precip
chances (<10%) at bay through tonight. More seasonal temperatures
are expected today as cooler air filters southward into western
Kansas ahead of an approaching surface high, dropping H85
temperatures a few degrees from yesterday. With the HREF
painting a 30-50% probability of temperatures exceeding 55F
across west central and central Kansas to better than a 90%
probability closer to the Oklahoma border, expect widespread
afternoon highs in the 50s(F) to near 60F. Colder air reinforced
by a broad surface high dropping southward into western Kansas
will push the H85 0C isotherm well through central and much of
southwest Kansas by daybreak Monday morning. Below freezing
temperatures are forecast tonight as suggested by the HREF
indicating a 50-70% probability of temperatures falling below
32F across much of southwest Kansas with that probability above
90% in central Kansas. Look for lows generally in the 20s(F) as
a result.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Relatively dry conditions are likely to continue into early next
week as medium range ensembles point to a closed upper low remaining
anchored in the Desert Southwest through early Tuesday before
finally dislodging eastward toward the South Plains of west Texas
Wednesday. There is a 20-30% chance for rain late Wednesday as
the upper level system skirts to our south into western
Oklahoma. This is supported by the NBM 4.1 painting a 30-50%
probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.01 of an inch across much
of south central Kansas and a small portion of southwest Kansas
as the system interacts with a modest moisture return through
much of Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms may even be possible as
the NBM 4.1 suggests a minimal amount of instability across
southern portions of southwest/south central Kansas where there
is a 60-70% probabity of SBCAPE values exceeding 100 J/kg.

Closer to seasonal temperatures are forecast again Monday as surface
high pressure is projected to shift southward through Kansas,
reinforcing a cooler air mass across the Western High Plains. This
is supported by the NBM indicating a 60-90% probability of
temperatures exceeding 55F with the warmest temperatures out near
the Colorado border. Temperatures are expected to rebound quickly
Tuesday as much warmer air spreads into western Kansas in wake
of the departing surface high, pushing highs well above normal
ahead of the next cold frontal passage expected by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late evening. Northerly winds around 5 to 15kt are expected to
persist throughout the period as surface high pressure drops
southward across the Northern Plains. Winds may become gusty
up to around 20kt this afternoon as slightly stronger winds
aloft mix down with daytime heating.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson


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