Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180909
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
409 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Widely scattered post frontal elevated showers and thunderstorms
will gradually diminish through around 10-12 UTC across the eastern
counties as the drier air begins to become established across
southwest Kansas.  The local center of surface high pressure will be
over the area by this afternoon with the NAM showing light and
variable surface winds and dew points only in the 40s west of
highway 283. There is large agreement across MOS and model output
for highs this afternoon for highs in the low 80s. Low tonight under
mostly clear sky will fall to around 60 and the 50s in low lying
area.  Temperatures will be similar Monday although southwesterly
downslope surface winds become reestablished, adding a few degrees
to afternoon high potential.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Surface pressure gradient will become sufficient to return winds to
more normal southerly 15 knots Tuesday afternoon as highs climb back
to the 90s, but with much lower dew points in the 40`s and 50s,
compared to recent days. Any instability Tuesday is likely to be
confined to the extreme western counties. Both the GFS and ECMWF
lean toward convective opportunity by Wednesday afternoon from the
panhandles into central Nebraska, with hot temperatures again back
near 100 degrees both Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Cold front has moved through the area last evening, with
scattered elevated thunderstorms continuing across the northeast
half of the forecast area (HYS/DDC). This scattered elevated
convection will taper off in the next few hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  61  86  63 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  82  59  88  62 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  83  60  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  84  62  88  64 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  81  59  86  62 /  10   0  10   0
P28  84  61  87  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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