Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190931
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
331 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES FOR WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LOWER LEVELS WERE STILL MOIST ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS SO THAT DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS, IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF TODAY FOR CLEARING TO PROGRESS AS FAR
EAST AS HAYS AND DODGE CITY. THE BEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND CLEARING
WILL BE IN WEST CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES. COOLER AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE DAY AND WHERE THE EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LESS
PRONOUNCED. STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. LOWS
NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT THE ROCKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. OTHER THAN THE
CIRRUS PRODUCING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE, THERE
WILL BE SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE STRATUS
OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

A STRONG WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE CONFINED
TO EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT COULD CHANGE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE 850 MILLIBAR WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS OR SO DURING THE DAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND OUTPUT
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN KANSAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. WHILE THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM AND DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY. CONSENSUS
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES IS TO LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN A BREAK UP OF THE LOW MVFR TO LIFR STRATUS FROM WEST
TO EAST. LIFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT KDDC AFTER 12 UTC AS
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  25  51  31 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  49  23  51  27 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  49  24  52  27 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  45  25  52  30 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  48  25  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  30  51  35 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH


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