Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 160620
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
120 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARMING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH SOME VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, BUT BETTER CHANCES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

A MEAN 582 DM 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MEANTIME, SUBSIDENCE BUILDING THE 850 HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, A
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL DEVELOPS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS BY A MOST OF THE MODELS. THE MODELS ARE MIXED AT HOW
ROBUST THEY ARE SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SOME
FRONTOGENESIS IS PRESENT BY VERY WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FIELD
AND THE SIGNAL SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION TO BE MORE OF AN EASTERN
KANSAS OR NEBRASKA EVENT. HOWEVER AS THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
PATTERN MATURES, SMALL POPS WERE ADDED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. A
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BECOME REINFORCED AIDING THE SPREAD OF
RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION FROM A
DECAYING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS MEXICO. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
BOTH SHOWING A DECENT PATTERN FOR RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL VORTICITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE, OVERCAST
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DRIVING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MONDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BETWEEN 08-12Z WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG
AT KGCK AND KDDC UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. AT KHYS IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST BY 09-12Z. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 18Z AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  64  89  63 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  82  61  89  62 /  10   0  10  10
EHA  86  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  83  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  73  61  84  63 /  10  10  10  20
P28  79  66  89  63 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE



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