Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 300603
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
103 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THERE IS GROWING CONCERN AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE NECESSITY
FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE PULLED THE TRIGGER AND ISSUED
A LONG-LEAD FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALL HINT AT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. SOME VALUES MAY EVEN REACH HARD FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA
(AT OR BELOW 28F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ATOP THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF SFC TROUGH WITH STRONGEST WINDS
GENERALLY ALONG A LIBERAL TO RUSSELL LINE.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP BY THE AREA
TONIGHT...FORCING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...VERY LARGE LOW AND MID LEVEL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THINK WINDS WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW
AS LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
OBSERVED TO THE NORTH IF WINDS DO DECOUPLE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
STRONG COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ON
THURSDAY WITH COOL SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING DEEP MIXING/STRONG WARMING UNLIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

H5 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND
RESULTING GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAIN
CONCERN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HOW FAST SFC HIGH RETREATS AND
TROUGHING BECOMES DOMINANT. BY SATURDAY EXPECT FAIRLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS IF MOISTURE RETURN IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
FIRE WX MAY BECOME A CONCERN. CURRENT DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY
FIRE WX PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
AS WEEKEND NEARS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
THE MONDAY TIME PERIOD WHEN STRONG TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE PLAINS. WHILE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL VARY TO SOME
DEGREE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A GOOD
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...MAINLY ON
MONDAY WHERE 50-60 POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY PHASE CHANGES AS THE TROUGH
PASSES. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTRIBUTED TO A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN KS THIS EVENING. THIS
RESULTED IN SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND A NOTABLE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR
SYRACUSE TO COLBY AND NORTON. THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY WITH MODERATE
GUSTINESS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  33  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  67  32  52  36 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  67  34  55  42 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  68  34  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  65  31  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  71  35  55  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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