Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

FXUS63 KDDC 291352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
852 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Issued at 852 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Updated forecast to increase chances of showers and thunderstorms
for all zones this afternoon through this evening. While
increasing them to chance/scattered coverage for most zones, they
are not nearly as high as much of the guidance, and further
increases may be necessary. NAM/GFS both hint at the genesis of
another MCS across southern zones this afternoon, and it appears
showers/storms are most likely across the southern/western zones
where the atmosphere will have the best opportunity to recover.
The threat of severe weather is low today, but will not be
surprised to see marginal wind/hail from stronger storms.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this morning mainly east
of Highway 83 with the best chance across eastern portions of our
CWA. Otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and continued
easterly winds through tonight. Thunderstorm chances continue
across eastern portions of our CWA tomorrow night. Otherwise
expect clearing in the west with continued partly to mostly cloudy
skies in the east. Winds tonight look to shift to more of a
southeasterly direction. As for temperatures, highs today look to
only reach into the low to mid 80s with lows tonight falling into
the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

A chance of thunderstorms will continue across central Kansas
Saturday with partly cloudy skies expected elsewhere. A drier
weather pattern emerges Sunday into the early part of next week as
the upper level high shifts more north and eastward towards the
Plains. Winds shift to more of a southerly direction this weekend
into early parts of next week as a trough of low pressure develops
across eastern Colorado. Precipitation chances then look to
increase towards the later part of next week as the upper level
high shifts back west placing the Central High Plains under
northwest flow aloft. A series of disturbances moving down through
this flow may move into the area. As for temperatures, highs creep
up from around 90 degrees Saturday into the upper 90s by late
weekend into the early part of next week. Highs then decrease to
the low to mid 90s by the late part of next week. Lows look to
generally be around 70 degrees.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

It should be relatively quiet through the TAF period with more
stable air in place behind the frontal boundary. Winds will
generally be out of the east for much of the day, but with speeds
expected to remain below 12 knots for much of the period outside a
few brief moments perhaps in the afternoon. There is not a very
coherent convective signal for later on today/this evening to
warrant inclusion of thunder in the TAF at any of the three
terminals, so we will keep the TAFs convection-free for now.


DDC  85  66  90  70 /  30  30  20  20
GCK  84  65  90  68 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  89  66  94  68 /  30  30  10  10
LBL  90  66  94  69 /  30  30  20  20
HYS  83  66  86  68 /  30  30  30  30
P28  86  69  91  72 /  30  30  30  30


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.