Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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959
FXUS63 KDDC 280529
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

At 00z Sunday a 500mb low was located over northwest Arizona with
a southwesterly flow evident from the southwest United states into
the Central Plains. Across the northern plains earlier this
evening a more westerly flow was evident at the 700mb and 500mb
level. Further east at 00z Sunday a 700mb to 500mb ridge axis
extended from Oklahoma to the Mid Atlantic.

Over the Central Plains a 500mb trough was located over western
Kansas and a surface trough of low pressure was located along the
lee of the Rockies. 700mb temperatures at 00z Sunday ranged from
9C in central Kansas to +11C near the Colorado border. The 850 mb
temperatures ranged from +20C in Central Kansas to around +24C in
far western Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and just north of
the warm front across far western and southwestern Kansas this
afternoon, and then progress northeastward this evening. It is
unclear how far east these storms will get these evening, but
locations such as Garden City, Lakin, Scott City and Cimarron
have a good chance of storms in the vicinity. Some storms could
be severe given 2500 j/kg CAPE, 40-60kt winds at upper levels and
strong directional turning of the wind. Bunkers method shows a
storm motion to the southeast at 10 kts for any rotating, right
moving storms. The best shear and will be in west central Kansas,
with weaker shear over south central sections. If storms quickly
develop cold pools then marginally severe hail and wind gusts to
60 mph can be expected. However, if storms can manage to rotate,
then hail up to tennis ball size would be possible. Thunderstorms
will linger into tonight before dying off late.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

There are chances of thunderstorms into Wednesday given the weak
upper level troughing and abundant moisture. As the upper level
trough weakens, the shear profile over the high plains will
weaken. Therefore, severe thunderstorms are not expected aside
from an isolated downburst. Highs will be mainly in the lower to
middle 80s with a few pockets of upper 80s for Sunday through
Wednesday given the increasing mid level moisture and cloud cover
ahead of the trough. After Wednesday, lack of synoptic scale
frontal boundaries or upper level troughing, thunderstorm
activity will tend to be more isolated, albeit possibly marginally
severe. Temperatures will also return to above normal levels with
highs in the upper 80s by late week and maybe lower 90s by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will spread east across southwest Kansas
overnight. These storms are expected to weaken/disipate as thye
move east through the early morning hours. At this time given the
latest models these storms will stay south of the Garden City and
Dodge City airports tonight. Model soundings indicating VFR
ceilings are expected overnight and Sunday. The Winds will mainly
be from the south at around 10 knots. On Sunday these southerly
winds will increase to around 15 knots by late morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  85 /  30  20  30  40
GCK  63  88  63  83 /  20  10  30  40
EHA  62  87  63  81 /  60  20  30  40
LBL  64  88  65  83 /  40  10  30  40
HYS  65  88  66  83 /  10  10  30  30
P28  68  89  68  87 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert



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