Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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905
FXUS63 KDDC 191800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

The quiet and dry November continues this afternoon, with
satellite imagery only showing a plume of cirrus clouds over
SW KS, originating from the Rockies. Surface high pressure is
located near Abilene, Texas, allowing strong return flow to
establish this afternoon. SW winds have already gusted to
33 mph here at office this hour, and similar gusty SW winds of
20-30 mph will continue through sunset. These SWly downslope
components, along with dry air and dry ground, will allow most
locations to reach the 60-65 range by 4 pm.

Tonight...Clear outside some passing cirrus, and once again
seasonably cold. The same dry air and dry ground will allow
temperatures to fall quickly this evening despite a persisting
SW breeze of 10-15 mph. Morning lows Monday morning will be near
normal for the time of year, in the 25-32 range.

Monday...Sunny and warmer. A splendid day on tap for late November
standards, with temperatures well above normal and tame winds. An
increase in 850 mb temperatures to the 15C range will deliver a
warmup, and the continued dry air/ground and downslope SW wind
will encourage a large diurnal swing. Followed the warmest
guidance with most locales ending up within a few degrees of
70 Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Upper level troughing will continue over the Great Lakes and
eastern United States for the next week week, with upper level
ridging over the West. By November 27 there will be a shift in
this pattern, with upper level troughing developing across the
western United States. Dry weather will persist for the next week
across western Kansas with occasional shortwave troughs and
associated cold fronts passing from Canada into the northern
plains and upper Midwest. One front will pass through Tuesday
morning and another by Saturday. Warmer weather is expected
Sunday and Monday ahead of one next front before a cooldown
by Tuesday. Warmer weather can again be expected Wednesday
through Friday ahead of the next cold front Saturday. Although the
upper level trough developing in the west by November 27th
represents a pattern change, it is unclear whether the amplitude,
speed (must be slow moving) and latitude (must move south of
Kansas) of the trough will be favorable for precipitation across
western Kansas. Since western Kansas is located in the rain shadow
of the Rockies, it takes a special pattern to get large amounts
of precipitation this far west in the cold season. Most weather
systems pass through dry. Locations about 700 hundred miles east
of here get about 4 times more precipitation in the cold season.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR/SKC with only some passing cirrus at times, making for good
flying conditions through this TAF cycle. The only exception will
be SW winds midday through this afternoon, gusting in the 25-28
kt range. Winds will subside quickly after sunset, remaining 7-11
kts overnight. Pressure gradients will remain weak on Monday,
keeping SW winds near 10 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  29  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  25  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  60  32  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  62  30  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  61  29  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
P28  61  32  65  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner



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