Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 311734 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
Other than some scattered mid level clouds, a tranquil weather day is
expected with no precipitation and fairly light and variable winds.
Went with slightly cooler with maximum temperatures today as evapotranspiration/
moisture fluxes should result in slightly cooler highs than what the
NAM is suggesting (the model looks too warm and has had a positive bias
this Summer) in where the heavier precipitation axis occurred yesterday.
The warmest will be along the Interstate 70 corridor where drier conditions
have prevailed. Values range from 79F-84F.
Again, quiet weather conditions expected through the overnight. A downslope
component to the wind vector will prevail through tonight into Friday
morning with SSW/SW winds. This will keep minimums up slightly with
values in the 60F-62F range. No precipitation is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
The medium range models currently show weak northwesterly flow aloft
continuing over the central High Plains between an upper level ridge
over western North America and a closed upper low north of the Great
Lakes region. A shortwave trough will drop out of southern Canada
into the Midwest on Friday. This will push a weak cool front south
into western Kansas on Friday. Given the dry and fairly stable
airmass in place, precipitation chances will be at a minimum.
The northern Great Lakes upper low will eject into the eastern
Canadian provinces by Saturday and increasing westerly flow will
allow the upper ridge to move east into the central part of the
country through the weekend. This will bring slightly warmer
temperatures to western Kansas through the early part of next week.
The next significant chances for precipitation across the central
High Plains will return toward the middle of next week. An upper
disturbance currently moving west over Mexico is progged by the
models to move northward around the west side of the upper ridge
this weekend before moving east toward the northern and central
Plains by next Tuesday. Increasing southerly flow ahead of this
system will pull some low level moisture back into the region with
increasing instability for scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the middle part of next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
VFR conditions will continue into Friday. A very weak surface
pressure gradient will give light and variable winds into Friday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 82 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 82 60 87 62 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 80 61 85 62 / 0 0 10 10
LBL 82 62 88 64 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 87 62 90 63 / 0 0 10 10
P28 81 62 89 65 / 0 0 0 10