Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 101805
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1205 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through the
remainder of the weekend as short range models indicate a zonal flow
aloft persisting across the Western High Plains during the period.
Regardless of an intensifying upper level jet across the region, a
much drier air mass in the lower/mid levels will preclude any precip
chances through Sunday night. Temperatures will not be quite as cold
tonight as a prevailing low level southerly flow draws warmer air
northward into western Kansas with H85 temperatures climbing by at
least 5C to 8C. Look for lows down into the 20s(F) across central
Kansas where the cold air mass will be slowest to erode, with
lows only down into the 30s(F) across extreme southwest Kansas
where a southwest to westerly downslope component will develop
late this evening. A weak upper level shortwave will push eastward
across the Northern Plains early Sunday morning, helping to usher
a weak cold front through western Kansas by mid day. This will
briefly halt a short-lived warm up to the region as cooler air
spills into the high plains lowering H85 temperatures back down
into the single digits(C). Expect highs only up into the 30s(F)
across central Kansas Sunday afternoon with the 40s(F) and possibly
a few lower 50s(F) further south.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 100 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Cooler temperatures overall are expected Sunday in association with
a fropa. This front will be dry with very limited low level moisture.
Highs from the upper 30s north to 50s south are expected. Temperatures
will moderate Monday with a light downslope wind and weak low level
warm air advection. Values might end up a few degrees above normal
with 50s. Another cold air mass will move through Tuesday and Wednesday,
with resultant lower temperatures. There is only a grazing shot at light
precipitation up north...however...moisture will be limited. Perhaps
a better chance at precip might be in the picture towards the very end
of the pd where a synoptic trof starts to influence the region with
stronger jet dynamics. Temperatures will trend colder late next week
as a strong high pressure center builds down from the north along with
associated much cooler 850-hPa temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1102 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. Southerly winds 15 to 25kt will persist across western
Kansas through early this evening as a lee side trough remains
anchored across eastern Colorado. Southerly winds will diminish
this evening with the loss of daytime heating. A weak cold front
will then push southeastward into western Kansas early Sunday
morning turning winds northerly 15 to 25kt toward late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  30  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  45  30  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  62  38  52  26 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  54  35  52  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  40  25  38  21 /   0   0   0   0
P28  47  32  48  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson


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