Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250840

340 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

...short term update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

The focus for the short term forecast timeframe will include
potential for elevated heat indices this afternoon and convection
along a cold frontal boundary moving into west central Kansas late
this late afternoon and early evening.

Given the possibility for moisture pooling ahead of the approaching
cold front across northwest Kansas this afternoon, and recent poor
model handling of surface moisture field we`ve used the GFS local
MOS for areal coverage of dew points and raised values a couple of
degrees. Drier air over far west central Kansas will promote a
better chance for widespread temperatures reaching around a hundred
degrees and higher. A heat advisory was expanded north through Rush
and Ellis counties, playing in effect the climatological typical
pattern for highest heat indices episodes, and as much being
skeptical of the models depiction of drying out dew points as much
or as fast as advertised.

A weak surface trough and cold front will be the focus for chances
for surface based thunderstorms in the late afternoon and early
evening, spreading form the higher terrain of eastern Colorado and
focusing along the frontal convergence zone, posing an isolated
severe wind threat.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)

Saturday night will still be warm as the southerly flow will exist
across our southern zones, and an east flow at the surface will
exist across the northern half.  Saturday afternoon surface
temperatures will rise to the 100F degree mark in the Hays to
Syracuse areas, the 101 to 102F range in the Larned to Dodge City to
Elkhart areas, and the 102 to 103F range in the Liberal to
Medicine Lodge areas.  A lee side trough is sure to form and move
into extreme western Kansas during Saturday afternoon. There will
be 20 percent chances for thunderstorms in our western 1 tier of
counties next to the Colorado border Saturday afternoon and evening.
Overnight Saturday night, the surface trough will get pushed a
little farther east, and an upper level wave will swoop through in
the northwest flow aloft. Pops in the west along the Colorado
border will increase to 30 to 40 percent Saturday night, with
lower 20 percent Pops in our eastern counties.  With clouds and
precipitation around, highs on Sunday will lower into the 90s, with near
90F degrees in the I-70 corridor, and perhaps mid 90s in the
Coldwater and Pratt areas.  Sunday should still be warm enough at
the surface to generate some scattered storms, especially in the
west near Syracuse and Elkhart, close to the surface trough.

On Monday, the upper high pressure will be over west Texas, with a
well established northwest flow aloft across the plains.  A warm
front will nudge north into our southwestern counties, and there
will be 20 to 30 percent chances for afternoon thunderstorms Monday.
Monday should start a cooling trend, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.  Tuesday will see another weak cold front come south
through the western plains, and highs on Tuesday should only reach
near 81F degrees in our north and range to the 87F degrees in the
Elkhart area.  Wednesday may the coolest day of the week, as the
cold air mass will be sinking south through the plains. A
whopping 81F degrees is forecast a high on Wednesday for Dodge
City!  The upper high pressure will begin building back to the
northeast on Thursday, and another warm up may show a short lived

Minimum temperatures will go through a similar cool down, but
generally be in the mid 60s through the extended forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. There could be some cirriform
blow off from convection farther upstream through the overnight. Additional
convection is possible tomorrow evening, however, confidence is not
high enough to put cb/tsra/vcts groups in for now. Will defer to later
TAF issuances since we are obviously outside the 6 hr critical TAF
pd and towards the end of the 24 hour regular pd. Should be pretty isolated
though. Southerly winds veering southwesterly and eventually northwest/northerly
by tomorrow afternoon. Magnitudes 12-25 kt.


DDC 102  72 101  73 /  20  20  10  10
GCK 101  69 100  71 /  20  30  20  20
EHA 103  70 101  71 /  20  20  10  20
LBL 104  72 103  72 /  20  10  10  20
HYS 101  72 100  72 /  20  20  10  20
P28 101  75 103  74 /  10  10  10  10


HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-081-090.



SHORT TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Sugden is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.