Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 200959
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
359 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PERIODICALLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. ONE SUCH MINOR WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LEE TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO
WESTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS SEEMS TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THAT
IS AFFECTING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS FAR NORTH AS PERRYTON AND MEDICINE LODGE. AS SURFACE
TROUGHING ENCOURAGES SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY, THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO LOCATIONS FROM DODGE CITY
SOUTH AND EAST TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE NAM HAS A CHARACTERISTIC
BIAS OF BEING TOO DRY AND WARM AT LOWER LEVELS IN CASES SUCH AS
THIS. THE HRRR AND RAP ARE COOLER AND INDICATE LOW CLOUD COVER
PROGRESSING AS FAR NORTH AS DODGE CITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER WILL TEND TO KEEP DIURNAL RANGES LOWER AND TEMPERATURES
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS AN EXAMPLE, THE TEMPERATURE AT GAGE,
OKLAHOMA STAYED 41F FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE STRATUS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER
TODAY IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS SCOTT CITY AND WAKEENEY WHERE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST OR INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT, AND FOG IS POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CLOULD SHIELD, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE. THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS OUGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING A LOT TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY GIVING WAY
TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT A LITTLE LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES PICK UP A LITTLE EARLY
MONDAY AS A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY MORNING PROVIDING A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR PRECIP INITIATION.
ALTHOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN , ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME PROXIMITY TO A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES MAY BE FELT. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS A DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DRAWS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ENHANCING WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO A LITTLE ABOVE 5C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
ALONG WITH DECREASED CLOUD COVER, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 50S(F)
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY MONDAY EVEN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LOWER HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THE
HIGH PLAINS. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY 14-15Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT STRATUS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD PROGRESS INTO
KDDC BY 18-19Z, WITH CIGS IN THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  33  52  34 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  52  27  55  32 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  51  27  57  34 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  52  31  56  33 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  52  31  50  34 /   0   0   0  10
P28  52  37  49  36 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.