Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 262324
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
524 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE NAM MODEL SEEMED TO OUTPERFORM THE HRRR WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIP PLACEMENT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AS A GUIDE IN COMBINATION WITH CURRENT
TRENDS TO PLACE POPS AND QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE REST
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A DECISION WILL NEED TO BE MADE WHETHER TO
EXTEND EITHER IN TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE OR DROP THE ADVISORY
ALTOGETHER AT 4 PM. AT THIS TIME, EXTENSION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
LIKELY. THE NAM INDICATED AN INTSENSIFICATION OF FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH NON
FAVORABLE AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW FOR VERTICAL MOTION. ONCE THE SNOW
BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM THE DISSIPATION OF VERTICAL MOTION, CLOUD
CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A BIG CONCERN HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SEES A BUMP IN DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH THE NAM SEEMS TO REFLECT), AS SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE WELL ENOUGH MIXED AND SLIGHTLY DOWNSLOPED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS SUNDAY BRINGING ABOUT A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A LACK OF
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SETTING UP A
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AS THE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS AFTER EXITING THE
TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST. AS A RESULT, SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW SPREADING EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL, WEAK QPF SIGNALS SUGGEST
LIGHTER AMOUNTS, IF ANY.

ALTHOUGH REBOUNDING SOMEWHAT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR SLOW TO ERODE AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE
H85 0C ISOTHERM BEGINNING TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH BUT REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EVEN WITH
DECREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE
30S(F) SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 40F STILL A POSSIBILITY CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PROJECT A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS COULD BE AS LOW AS THE TEENS(F)
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AT KDDC AND KGCK, AND AFTER 12Z AT
KHYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  32  16  38 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  14  31  15  36 /  30   0   0   0
EHA  13  32  16  39 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  17  34  15  39 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  16  29  15  36 /  60   0   0   0
P28  21  38  18  41 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...KRUSE



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