Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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860
FXUS63 KDDC 151717
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1117 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 833 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

WV imagery indicates a northerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, an area of high pressure
is sinking southward across the Texas Panhandle into West Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 107 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the southern High
Plains region today and tonight. 850 mb level air descending from
the higher terrain will warm the level around 15 degrees over the
next 24 hours. Most models and MOS are fairly consistent in
forecasting spatially homogeneous afternoon highs into the lower
to mid 50s. Not a particularly windy day either, despite southwest
flow developing. Surface winds speeds below 15 knots should only
gust briefly during the mid afternoons peak heating.

Mid level stratiform cloudiness that was around tonight will be
completely removed from the western KS this evening, although
some negligible cirrus may be moving through. We should see a
steady 10 knot southwest wind overnight as temperatures fall to
the teens in extreme western CO border areas to around the
freezing mark in the south central KS counties.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 107 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

The extended forecast will be subject to the large trough over the
western states, and the various embedded waves associated with
it. The only one seemingly of interest precipitation-wise for
our are appears Saturday might or Sunday morning as a warm
frontal/overrunning rain possibility across south central Kansas,
depicted by the NAM/WRF but much further east in the ECMWF
solutions. As a result there are precip probabilities now for the
southeast counties early Sunday. The remainder of the forecast is
dry and seasonal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

WV imagery indicates a northerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, area of high pressure is
sinking southward across the Texas Panhandle into West Texas.
Southwest winds 10 to 20kt will persist through early Saturday
morning as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
across eastern Colorado.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

The widespread cured fuels combined with relatively warm
conditions creating relative humidities into the 20 percent range
will create an elevated fire weather danger for the next couple of
days. Winds will not be particularly strong, but some gustiness
is likely in the afternoon between 15 and 20 knots at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  28  59  30 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  58  26  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  60  33  60  26 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  59  27  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  58  28  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  30  60  36 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...MR



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