Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 032346
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
646 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW PERSISTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WITH WEAK INFLOW AND
LOW CAPE VALUES, THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT, NORTHWESTERLY MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH LEVEL SHEAR BETWEEN 500 AND
250MB WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS, RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
EXCELLENT STORM TOP VENTILATION. GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
TURNING OF THE WIND BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 500MB, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
(40KTS) FOR SUPERCELL STORMS; AND GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, THE LARGEST HAIL STONES MAY BE BASEBALL
SIZE OR LARGER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY, BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AFTER THE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DIES OFF IN THE EVENING, ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCH WARMER
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH THE MID TO
HIGH 90S. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY. THE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH COULD BE SEVERE. MONDAY`S
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
PROBABLY NOT SEVERE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S MONDAY AND THEN LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT ALONG WITH PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WILL STILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES, WHICH USUALLY MEANS OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES, ALONG WITH
VARYING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AS FRONTS PASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AVIATION WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME IN A ZONE OF MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY IN INITIATION, TIMING, AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS AXIS OF CONVECTION IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF, BUT OVERNIGHT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY
SHOULD THIS CONVECTION DEVELOP AND AFFECT DDC, GCK, AND/OR HYS
TERMINALS. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  89  69  96 /  20  40  40  10
GCK  65  90  69  98 /  20  40  40  20
EHA  64  96  68  97 /  30  10  10  20
LBL  66  95  69  97 /  30  30  30  10
HYS  66  89  70  98 /  20  20  30  20
P28  68  92  70  95 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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