000
FXUS63 KDDC 132028
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
328 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

Gusty south to southwest had developed earlier this afternoon as
a surface trough of low pressure deepens along the lee of the
Rockies. If not already these winds will range from 15 to 25 mph
range by late day. In addition relative humidities will range from
10 to 15 percent. Current red flag warning still look on track so
will continue this warning through 7 pm.

An upper level disturbance, which was located over northern Idaho
at 12z Thursday, will move out of the Rockies and out into the
Western High Plains early tonight. As this system crosses into the
the High Plains a surface trough of low pressure will move east
across western Kansas and a cold front will move south across
Nebraska. The winds across western Kansas will decrease to around
10kts and veer to the west northwest as this surface boundary
passes early this evening. Gusty North winds will then develop
during the early morning hours as a cold front moves across
western Kansas. Skies early tonight will be mostly clear, however
after midnight mid to high level moisture will begin to increase
across western Kansas. Given clear skies early along with a period
of decreasing winds have favored the new, slightly cooler, MAV/MET
guidance. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 30s in
west central Kansas to near 40 in south central Kansas.

High pressure a the surface will build into western Kansas by
Friday afternoon and 850mb temperatures are expected to cool into
the 5c to near 8c range by 00z Saturday. 12z NAM and 12z GFS were
both in decent agreement with increasing moisture in the 600mb to
400mb level during the early morning hours as a 500mb deformation
zone moves slowly into southwest Kansas. Based on the expected
cloud cover early Friday and 850mb temperatures at 00z Saturday
will trend highs Friday afternoon towards what the cooler 850mb
mix down temperature which suggested highs will range from the
upper 50s in west central Kansas to the mid 60s near the Oklahoma
border in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

At this time the weekend precipitation chances appear most likely
across the Colorado line and through south central Kansas. Models
continue to indicate as upper PV anomaly diving just south of
western Kansas Saturday night, with a broad PVA and weak mid level
frontogenetic zone extending into western Kansas just ahead of a
moderate intensity cold frontal boundary for Saturday night. Ahead
of the boundary a narrow corridor of enhanced MUCapes on the order
of a couple of hundred J/kg will develop in the afternoon, but not
necessarily coincident with the best frontogenesis. Nevertheless,
isolated thunderstorms were also added to the rain chances (mainly
south of a Ulysses to Pratt line) beginning in the afternoon and
extending into the very early evening Saturday. A deepening colder
airmass spreading from the higher terrain will promote a
precipitation phase change to snow with time, but as the colder
air arrives, any real lifting mechanism appears to be minimized
with time as deep northwest flow begins to become established. The
models indicate continued breezy if not implied windy conditions
on Sunday as the upper low drops into eastern Texas. A slow
warming trend through Monday may only be temporary as the models
indicate yet another sharp wave diving through the westerly flow
by Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

Gusty southwest winds will increase to around 15kts this
afternoon as a surface trough of low pressure deepens along the
lee of the Rockies. The winds will then decrease and veer more to
the west northwest overnight a this surface trough of low pressure
will then moves across southwest Kansas. VFR conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours given that BUFR soundings indicate
only mid to high level moisture will precede an upper level
disturbance as it crosses the central high plains during the
overnight hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  61  36  63 /   0  10   0  10
GCK  36  60  34  62 /   0  10   0  10
EHA  40  59  36  62 /   0  10   0  20
LBL  38  60  35  63 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  37  61  35  62 /   0   0   0  10
P28  41  65  37  64 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert