000
FXUS63 KDDC 050829
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
229 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2013

...Updated for the long term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

At 12z Wednesday a 300mb jet extended from southern California
into far western Nebraska. A -35c to -37c 500mb low was located
over southeastern Idaho with an upper level trough extending
southwest of this upper low into southern California. Ahead of
this upper level trough 80 to 90meter 12hour height rises were
observed near the four corners region which was where the left
exit region of a 300mb +100kt jet was positioned. A 700mb
baroclinic zone stretched from the four corners region across
western Kansas and into southeastern Nebraska with an area of
higher dewpoints observed along this baroclinic zone. The 850mb
temperatures at 12z Wednesday across the central plains varied
from -3c at Amarillo to -9c at Dodge city to -16c at North Platte.
This a 18c to 25c drop when comparing the 850mb temperatures from 12z
Wednesday to 12z Tuesday. Dodge City and North Platte soundings
from 12z also indicated a fairly deep layer of moisture which
extended from near the surface to at least the 800mb level.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

19z visible satellite loop indicating some clearing skies across
western Kansas as the low clouds gradually erode. Further west mid
level cloud cover/moisture was on the increase and this appears to
be related to a 700mb baroclinic zone that extended from northeast
Colorado into Nebraska. Tonight 700mb frontogenesis will be
improving along this mid level baroclinic zone as the right
entrance region of a 300mb jet crosses western Kansas. Based on
the NAM and RAP at 18z Wednesday this 700mb baroclinic zone should
be located across northeast Colorado 18z and based on the latest
composite mosaic radar loop these models appear to have a decent
handle on this. As a result will follow the 700mb baroclinic zone
from NAM and RAP overnight and place the better chances for
measurable snow along this boundary given the improving
frontogenesis and the location of the right entrance region of an
upper level jet as it crosses the central plains during the
overnight hours.

Initial thoughts for snow amounts tonight...a brief period of
steady light to even moderate snow may accompany the jet steak
which may result in a quick inch of snow across portions of west
central and north central Kansas. Have therefore place snow
accumulations of 1 to around 1.5 inches in this this area between
00z Thursday and 12z Thursday. Further south some light
snow/flurries will still be possible, however given the loss of
the upper level dynamics lower snow amounts are anticipated.

On Thursday the better mid level forcing will be located near the
Oklahoma border through much of the day as a southern branch upper
level disturbance approaches southwest Kansas from New Mexico.
Another brief period of steady light to moderate snow will be be
possible during the day across far southwest Kansas and near the
Oklahoma border. Once again 1 to 2 inches of snowfall will be
possible with this steadier snow and lower snow amounts further
north. At this time snow totals over the next 24 to 36 hours are
expected to be mainly between 1 to 2 inches so inserted these snow
totals into the hazardous weather outlook but will not issue a
winter weather advisory at this time.

Wind chill values towards daybreak will fall back mainly into the
5 to 10 degrees below zero range with wind chill readings
approaching -15c in a few locations of west central Kansas. On
Thursday as afternoon temperatures struggle to reach the 15 to
near 20 degree range the wind chill values are expected to be
mainly in the single digits.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

Friday night will see the strong arctic high pressure system shift
slightly to the east, with a southerly flow returning at the surface
in our western zones near the Colorado border.  A trough of low
pressure will form in eastern Colorado Friday afternoon, and migrate
into far western Kansas overnight Friday night.  On Saturday, a mid
level wave of low pressure will cross from the Rockies into the
Plains, and may bring a little snow to far western Kansas by noon
time, near the trough.  The mid level lift and instability will move
across the rest of southwestern Kansas and spread light snow into
central Kansas Saturday afternoon.  The large upper level trough at
H5 will slowly move eastward into plains Saturday night, and send
small waves of energy through the plains.  This will support light
snow through Sunday, with a slight chance of snow in our east, east
of a Hays to Coldwater line, Sunday night.  This snow event looks
very weak, and an inch or less of new snow is anticipated.  After
Sunday night, the upper and lower support for snow will shift east
and we should see a slight warm up.

Friday night looks really cold with the arctic air extending well
south of us into Oklahoma.  In addition, skies will be mostly clear
for much of the night, allowing temps to dive quickly after
sundown.  For these reasons, some of our zones from Syracuse to
Dighton to Wakeeney may bottom out to the -2F degree range.  light
easterly winds at 7 to 8 knots will still produce wind chill
readings in the advisory level, down in the -15F to -19F range.  A
wind chill advisory may be needed for Friday night, but later shifts
can evaluate that.  Saturday, Sunday and even Monday all look very
cold with maximum temperatures only in the teens and minimums in the
single digits.  Tuesday will see a little warm up with south winds
returning.  Highs Tuesday into Thursday will reach the 30s, while
low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

VFR conditions will prevail tonight with northerly winds at 15 to
20 knots gusting to around 25 knots at times. There is a slight
chance of light snow towards sunrise and have placed a TEMPO group
to account for this. Northerly winds then decrease to around 10
knots tomorrow morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  17   7  16   2 /  60  70   0   0
GCK  18   7  14   2 /  40  50   0   0
EHA  14   7  15   3 /  80  80   0   0
LBL  16   9  16   2 /  80  80   0   0
HYS  19   7  15   1 /  10  20   0   0
P28  25  12  19   5 /  50  50  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Hovorka_42