


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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460 FXUS63 KDDC 262332 CCA AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Dodge City KS 632 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered strong thunderstorms developing this afternoon, focused across areas east of a Liberal-Dodge City-Larned line. - SPC Marginal Risk (1 of 5) of severe for a damaging wind risk with only a very low probability of large hail (less than 5% prob. risk within 25 miles of a point). - WPC Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall late this afternoon/evening focused mainly on south central Kansas, generally east of an Ashland-Kinsley-Great Bend line. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 A surface tough will be the focus for after moisture convergence and convective initiation, with the axis likely somewhere along a Liberal to just east of DDC and Rush county line, based on the consensus of some of the CAMs. Around an inch and one half layer precipitable water in that zone still keeps PWATS around 150% of normal for heading into the last week of June. Convection this afternoon will have similar characteristics of the last 2 days, in that efficient rain rates reducing visibility to a mile or two in +TSRA and dangerous CG lightning. The window of opportunity for the convective threat is between as early as 3 this afternoon through about 10 pm. A water loaded storm producing a localized damaging wet macroburst cannot be ruled out late this afternoon. HREF 1-hr calibrated probability of thunder ramps up to around 50-60% from around Liberal to southern Gray and Ford counties and then southeastward across the Red Hills region (Comanche, Med lodge, as well as Pratt) where enhanced surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s reside. The next few days, at least through Saturday have far less opportunity for thunderstorm with the lack of a forcing mechanism in place, and the SPC outlooks for days 2 and 3 are in the general thunder category across the entire region. Temperatures and as such heat risk will be on the rise through Saturday where areas north of K-96 should reach the moderate level (2 of 4) which corresponds to affecting individuals sensitive to heat such as those without effective cooling, and adequate hydration, especially those in some health systems and heat sensitive industries. A light relief comes by Monday through Wednesday as highs fall back into the 80s though that period following fairly good precipitation probabilities for Sunday night (30 to 50% for day 4). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with only a few mid to high level clouds by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light and variable overnight shifting to the southwest by late morning. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Bennett