000
FXUS63 KDDC 250545
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DEGRADE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT THEN INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH WESTERN CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, THEN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS REMAINS DRY.
MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME SATURATED TOMORROW
LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
SPREADING SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN
THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE OBSERVED IN THIS AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT
LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO AROUND
20 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW
HAVE BEEN THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, CLOUD COVERAGE, AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
MELT THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC COLD WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION.
850 TEMPS LOWER FROM ZERO WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 15 BELOW CELSIUS BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO FRIDAY. THIS MEANS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
DIPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL ONLY WILL BE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER COUNTIES INTO
FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN INCH OR 2
POSSIBLE. THE AREAS OF SNOW WILL BE FROM SEVERAL ROUNDS OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WARM SLOWLY INTO THE 30S FAR WEST, TO MID
AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE, ON SATURDAY, THEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW SOUTH OF DODGE CITY
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW CHANCES STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY, THEN TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGHS SLOWLY MODERATE TO AROUND 40 TO 45 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH KANSAS
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY FRONT, THERE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 16 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT
LATER ON THIS EVENING, CEILINGS WILL LOWER FURTHER, APPROACHING
IFR AND WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30S KNOTS, AT LEAST. PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
NOT EXPECTED AT GCK, DDC, OR HYS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  44  14  22 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  15  42  14  21 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  15  42  16  23 /   0  10  30  30
LBL  15  44  16  22 /   0  10  20  20
HYS  21  48  12  20 /   0  20  10  10
P28  18  46  17  23 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID