Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281925
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
225 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Beneficial rainfall has begun across SW KS. Upper cyclone is
spinning over New Mexico at midday, with the associated warm
conveyor belt blossoming with rain and thunderstorms as expected,
from western Kansas to west Texas. All short term models and CAMs
spread rain and embedded thunder eastward across SW KS through
this evening. Rain will be moderate to heavy at times, with rain
amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch typical. Isolated thunder will persist
mainly across the southern zones through this evening, but the
threat of severe weather is low. With all instability elevated,
any severe threat would be limited to hail (quarter size or less)
mainly near the Oklahoma border. Low stratus clouds are going
nowhere, with temperatures steady in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Will likely see a several hour respite in rainfall intensity
overnight, as moist warm conveyor belt rain/convection propogate
east of SW KS, and the cyclone`s deformation axis begins to
organize over NE New Mexico. For simplicity`s sake, kept pop grids
high overnight with strong lift in a moist environment. As surface
low spins up in western Oklahoma overnight, NE winds will respond
with an increase to 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Temperatures will
move little, in the 40s.

Wednesday...Windy and rainy. Cloudy and chilly. Upper low near
Clovis, New Mexico at 7 am will slowly drift NE, ending up near
the SE zones by Wednesday evening. With this track, the
deformation zone axis is expected to pivot over SW KS much of the
day, with continued rain. Thunder will be limited on the cold side
of the cyclone, but did include a slight thunder mention across
the SE zones nearest the upper cyclone during the afternoon.
Aligned pops at 90% where model consensus places the deformation
axis during the day. Another 0.50 to 1 inch of rain is likely at
many locales. Also, NE winds will be strong Wednesday, with about
10 mb of surface pressure gradient across the CWA. Guidance has
notably increased on wind speeds tomorrow, and followed suit in
the grids with gusts as high as 40 mph. Temperatures will go
nowhere within the deformation rainfall, as 850 mb temperatures
slowly fall to +1 to +2C. Many locations will be stuck in the 40s
and trimmed temperatures accordingly.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Strong cyclone expected to be in SE Kansas Thursday morning, with
wraparound precipitation ending across SW KS from west to east.
Included a mix with wet snowflakes on the higher terrain of the
western counties before ending early Thursday morning. No
accumulations or impacts expected. Rapidly improving weather
expected on Thursday, with a rapidly clearing sky and a
diminishing north wind. 50s east, 60s west.

Transitory shortwave ridge departs Friday morning, and SWly flow
resumes aloft, as yet another strong closed low digs into the Four
Corners region to our west. Still appears daylight hours on Friday
will be dry with increasing clouds. Highs in the lower 60s with an
increasing SE wind.

Another opportunity for rainfall coming up this weekend. Model
guidance is still wavering on the storm track, to be expected
4-5 days out. 12z GFS indicates a storm split, which would take
the heaviest rain south of Kansas by Sunday. 12z ECMWF is similar
in shifting the storm and better rain chances SE of SW KS by
Sunday. So early indications are additional rain showers are most
likely Saturday, dwindling by Sunday, but overall impressions are
this system will not be nearly as wet as the one we are currently
experiencing.

One more shortwave embedded in developing NW flow aloft is
expected to keep the shower chances alive Monday and Tuesday early
next week. With the NW flow, moisture with this system will be
much reduced, but it will be much colder, with ECWMF suggesting a
few snowflakes will be possible. After this, ECWMF continues to
indicate dry weather and a warming trend for the remainder of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Poor flying conditions will persist through this entire TAF
forecast period, with no improvements expected. LIFR stratus cigs
will prevail at all airports. Visibility reductions will vary
between from 1/2 to 2 sm in BR, fog, or rain. Kept a thunder
mention out of the 18z TAFs for now, but an isolated lightning
strike is possible near GCK and DDC. Rain will be moderate to
heavy at times. HRRR solutions forecast rain to overspread all
airports through 00z. There will likely be a brief break in
rainfall intensity after 06z tonight, before deformation zone
rainfall increases toward the end of the TAF period. East winds
will gust to 20-25 kts through 00z. Expect winds to back to NE and
increase this evening (gusting 30-33 kts) in response to
cyclogenesis to the south of SW KS. Winds will trend northerly by
12z Wed and continue to gust near 30 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  47  37  58 / 100  90  70  10
GCK  43  45  35  61 /  90  90  60  10
EHA  37  46  34  62 /  80  90  60  10
LBL  41  50  34  62 /  90  90  50  10
HYS  44  45  40  54 / 100  90  80  20
P28  51  60  42  57 / 100  90  70  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner


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