Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 252020
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WAS STILL SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
IN THAT AREA. FARTHER NORTH OVER WESTERN KANSAS, LOW TO MID LEVEL
SHEAR WAS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH ONLY SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND GIVEN THE ABSENCE
OF THICK STRATUS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
ONLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
CONVECTIVE/FLOODING THREATS. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXIST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE NAM IS INDICATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH REGENERATION LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR A
FEW SHIFTS RUNNING NOW. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE
POTENTIALLY POORLY TIMED/PREDICTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD MAY SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES AFTER
21Z AND THROUGH 08Z. IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VISBYS MAY NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  79  57  82 /  40  20  20  50
GCK  53  78  55  82 /  40  20  20  50
EHA  53  78  54  83 /  30  20  20  30
LBL  54  79  57  81 /  30  20  20  40
HYS  54  79  56  83 /  40  10  20  40
P28  58  79  60  80 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH


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