Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 252017
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
317 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Broad high pressure again was positioned from the northern plains
through the southern plains this afternoon. There was a
thermal/moisture gradient around 850 mb over northwest Kansas where
thunderstorms this morning slowly advanced southeast into the west
central counties.  The HRRR and other convective allowing models
depict the heavier activity to become much less organized and
smaller in areal coverage in the coming hours as it continues
southeast into south central Kansas.

The rain cooled air behind this activity, already in the 50s will
lead to even cooler temperatures for much of the area heading into
the evening, mainly over the northern counties.

Temperatures tonight may be modified heavily by the next few runs of
the Hi-res rapid refresh model. Low clouds/stratus that was already
being developed in the far southwest by the RAP13km/HRRR and HiRes
NMM may be more widespread overnight as well following the rains
across the  area this afternoon.

Models show the the low clouds slow to break up early Monday. The
same conditionally unstable atmosphere will still be in place with
the return of weak to moderate surface based CAPE. There does not
appear to be much of a forcing mechanism for lift until the evening
hours when a front slides south into central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The cool period of the weekend and early part of the workweek will
come to an end as a broad upper ridge followed by zonal upper flow
and southwest downslope boundary layer air. Shortwave Tuesday night
may or may not mean thunderstorms for southwest Kansas as there are
differences in the GFS and ECMWF at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Elevated showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
slowly east-southeast across the area through early evening. Any
of the terminals could potentially see a brief 30 minute downpour
with ceilings briefly dropping to 600-1000ft range, but
confidence is relatively low and will look toward amending
terminals as needed to address this possibility. Most areas should
remain well in the VFR categories even with light showers.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  82  62  89 /  20  20  30  10
GCK  58  84  61  90 /  30  20  30  10
EHA  60  83  62  90 /  40  20  20  10
LBL  62  83  63  91 /  30  20  20  10
HYS  58  81  61  88 /  20  20  20  10
P28  62  85  64  89 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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