Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

A deep upper level cyclone was centered in near the Hamilton
County/Colorado border early this afternoon with a cold trough
extending into the northern Texas Panhandle. The numerical models
are in reasonably good agreement with moving the upper level
cyclone into east central Kansas by late tonight. There is
marginal instability under the upper level cold pool that will
support scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms near
the center of the low. There appears to be a deformation zone
extending from the upper low center into north central Kansas, and
quite dry air is evident on the low water vapor band extending in
much of southwest Kansas. Most of the rainfall this evening with
the upper level cyclone should be north of a line from Scott City
to Larned.

As the upper level cold pool rotates through the Texas Panhandle
and begins to interact with richer low level moisture in western
Oklahoma, thunderstorms are likely to initiate and to spread into
south central Kansas. Some congested cumulus were evident in
satellite imagery in the dry air in the Texas Panhandle by 200 PM.
A surface cyclone was centered northwest of Gage, Oklahoma early
this afternoon with a warm front extending across northern
Oklahoma. As the upper level cyclone propagates east, the surface
low will ripple along the warm frontal boundary into northeast
Oklahoma by late tonight. The better instability for severe
thunderstorm development likely will remain south of the Kansas
border, but sufficient instability above the stable boundary layer
exists to support some elevated hail producing thunderstorms late
this afternoon and evening in southern Kansas.

Low level flow in southwest Kansas will become north as the
surface cyclone ripples along the warm front in northern Oklahoma.
Extensive stratiform cloudiness will persist for most of the
night, but the low clouds will begin to erode from the west after
midnight. Winds will become light as surface high pressure builds
in western Kansas before morning, and areas of fog may redevelop
around sunrise in areas where the cloudiness dissipates.
Confidence in fog formation would be a lot higher if the ground
were wet.

Monday will be warmer with abundant sunshine as a weak upper
level ridge builds into western Kansas. Temperatures are expected
to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday afternoon. The next
deep upper level trough between 130W and 140W will dig into the
western United States Monday, and pressures will begin to fall in
the lee of the Rockies by afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

A split flow with a tendency toward ridging in western Canada and
troughing in the southwest and central United States is likely to
continue through the first part of April. The numerical models
are in fairly good agreement with developing a closed cyclone in
northeast Arizona by Tuesday morning and progressing the closed
low into northeast New Mexico by Wednesday morning. A surface
cyclone is likely to develop in the northern Texas Panhandle or
western Oklahoma Wednesday morning with copious isentropic lifting
over a warm front extending from the low into southeast Kansas.
AS the upper level cyclone wallows slowly east across the Central
Plains Wednesday and Wednesday night, the baroclinc zone will
pivot and should extend from northeast Kansas into western
Oklahoma by Wednesday evening. Widespread rain will continue in
western Kansas Wednesday and Wednesday night, finally ending early

The next vigorous upper level trough should close off near the
Four Corners area Friday. There is some disagreement among the
numerical models about the trajectory of this closed low as it
approaches the central part of the country, but the most likely
solution is for the upper level low to move into western Kansas
Sunday and to progress into eastern Kansas by Monday morning.
Another episode of widespread rainfall can be expected next
Saturday and Saturday night with showers continuing Sunday.

Nearly all ensemble members of the GFs accumulate widespread
rainfall totals of more than 1.5 inches in southwest Kansas by
next weekend, and the ECMWF has been persistent with two to three
inch totals. There is little reason to doubt that there will be
widespread beneficial rainfall sufficient to erase the effects of
the dry period from mid January to the present time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Poor flight conditions expected through 1/2 of TAF pd. IFR or even
LIFR expected with low stratus and/or fog. Some of the models have
dense fog forming through the overnight. Flight conditions are gradually
expected to improve by late morning to VFR. Winds will be fairly light
- NW/N 5-10 kt and then become light SE/S 5-10 kt by tonight.


DDC  40  67  43  60 /  30   0  10  80
GCK  34  68  44  58 /  10   0  10  80
EHA  34  67  44  57 /  10   0  10  70
LBL  36  68  45  60 /  10   0  10  80
HYS  39  63  42  59 /  30   0   0  70
P28  45  67  44  64 /  80   0   0  70




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