Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181651
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1151 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively dry conditions continue across southwest Kansas
  through early Wednesday with a 20-40% chance for rain and
  isolated thunderstorms across south central Kansas and
  portions of southwest Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into
  Wednesday evening.

- Above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

WV imagery indicates a closed upper low remaining anchored in the
Desert Southwest. Near the surface, high pressure is sinking
southward through the Dakotas into the Central Plains.

Tranquil conditions are forecast during the period as the SREF
indicates a northwest flow aloft developing across the Western High
Plains in wake of a broad upper level trough swinging southeast out
of the Upper Midwest before turning more easterly toward the eastern
seaboard. Meanwhile, a closed upper low will remain anchored in the
Desert Southwest. Considering a much drier air mass will continue to
dominate the region as surface high pressure drops farther southward
through the Central Plains into the Ark-La-Tex region, precip chances
(<10%) are expected to remain absent across western Kansas through
tonight.

Similar temperatures to yesterday are expected again today as a
broad area of high pressure moves south-southeast out of the
Northern Plains and through Kansas, reinforcing a cooler air mass
across the Western High Plains with H85 temperatures holding around
0C in central Kansas to a little above 5C closer to the Colorado
border. With the HREF showing a 30-50% probability of temperatures
exceeding 55F across central Kansas to greater than a >90%
probability closer to the Colorado border, look for widespread
afternoon highs once again in the 50s(F) with the lower 60s(F)
in extreme southwest Kansas. Departing surface high pressure
combined with a developing lee side trough will set up a
southwesterly downslope flow across western Kansas tonight,
drawing slightly warmer air up into the area. The HREF indicates
only a 10% probability of temperatures dropping below freezing
tonight, setting up for lows generally in the mid/upper 30s(F).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Dry conditions early in the period are forecast to give way to
minimal rain chances (20-40%) late Wednesday as medium range
ensembles indicate the closed upper low in the Desert Southwest
dislodging eastward into the South Plains of west Texas Wednesday
afternoon. There remains fair agreement that the upper level system
will track eastward through the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma,
interacting with a projected near-stationary frontal boundary stretching
somewhere generally in vicinity and along the Oklahoma border. With
modest moisture return providing some instability (70-90% probability
of SBCAPE values exceeding 100 J/kg), showers and isolated thunderstorms
will by possible Wednesday afternoon/evening. The best chance for
any appreciable rainfall is expected across south central Kansas
and a small portion of southwest Kansas closer to the Oklahoma
border where the NBM 4.1 paints a 20-30% probability of 12-hr
QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by late Wednesday night.

Well above normal temperatures are forecast Tuesday despite a weak
cold front projected to push into western Kansas by early afternoon.
With the NBM 4.1 showing 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding
70F, look for afternoon highs up into the lower/mid 70s(F). Closer
to seasonal temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday as
slightly cooler air spreads into western Kansas behind the
aforementioned frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.
Winds in general should stay below 15 kts through the next 24
hours.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Tatro


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