Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 041731
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1231 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated aviation section...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A weak upper level disturbance was moving northeastward into the
central plains early this morning, resulting in a few light
showers in central Kansas. This system was in advance of a much
larger upper level trough that was amplifying across the western
United States. Ahead of the western upper level system, surface
troughing persisted in the lee of the Rockies, resulting in a
continuation of south winds, deep vertical mixing and dilution of
low level moisture in the vertical. The upper level trough will
amplify through Saturday over the West before ejecting rapidly
northeastward into the northern plains by Sunday, helping to push
a cold front into western Kansas by late Sunday. Zonal mid level flow
across the Rockies and resultant pressure falls will prevent this
front from pushing much father south than Kansas through Monday
and early Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

The light shower activity will exit this morning as the
aforementioned weak shortwave trough exits. There will be less
high cloud cover in the wake of this system compared to yesterday
so that temperatures should be warmer in many places. Afternoon
highs will range from the mid 90s to near 100F. Isolated
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out once again just like yesterday.
Due to the high cloud bases, strong outflow winds will be the main
concern with any storm that develops. Any evening storms will
weaken and die this evening with the loss of daytime heating,
leaving some leftover high cloudiness tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Saturday and Sunday will be similar to today, with continued
very small chances for late day high-based thunderstorms. We opted
to carry dry thunder in the grids with any pop over 8% through
Sunday. There is a little better chances for thunderstorms from
Sunday night into early to mid next week due to the stalled out
frontal boundary and increasing low level moisture. There is a
chance that some of these storms could be severe given the
increasing mid to high level winds and increasing surface based
CAPE values. Highs will continue to be hot through Sunday ahead of
the front and even on Monday as the front stalls. Another upper
level trough will pass across the northern plains by Tuesday and
this may shunt the front father south. Before the front moves too
far south, thunderstorms will be possible into Tuesday night along
and even on the cool side of the front. Highs should drop into the
80s to lower 90s by Tuesday and 80s on Wednesday, There is some
uncertainty by late Wednesday and Thursday as to precipitation
chances as the mid to high level flow becomes more northwesterly,
with weak embedded shortwave troughs that could result in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with increasing high level
clouds. Winds will generally be from the south around 20 knots
with higher gusts this afternoon decreasing to around 14 knots
this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  70  98  73 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  98  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  68  96  71 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  99  72  99  74 /   0  10  10  10
P28  98  72  96  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Hovorka_42


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