Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180557
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SOME OF THE
HIGH CIRRUS FROM THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT HAD ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON THE VIGOROUS
AFTERNOON WARMUP INTO THE 90S. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMED,
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. WE WILL CARRY SOME 15-20 POPS
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM
HAMILTON TO SCOTT COUNTY. NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
PREVENT UPSCALE GROWTH. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 66-69F RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND THE WEAK
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPSLOPE LIFT TO
GENERATE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST AREA FOR FOG WILL BE
NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO JETMORE TO PRATT LINE, PARTICULARLY IN THE
09-14Z TIME FRAME. WE WILL CARRY AREAS OF 1/2SM FOG IN THE GRIDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT INCOMING SHIFT WILL
NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR WIDER SPREAD DENSE FOG AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR DENSE FOG.

VISIBILITIES FROM THE MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AFFECT THE
WARMUP TOMORROW. HAVE LOWERED THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT ONCE DIRECT INSOLATION BEGINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY POP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE 80S,
INCLUDING HAYS. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVLOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AND FOG BETWEEN
11-14Z AT KHYS. IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH A LITTLE, THEN EVEN KDDC
AND KGCK COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG BY 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  86  66  75 /   0  10  70  80
GCK  65  85  66  77 /   0  30  70  80
EHA  65  79  64  79 /  10  60  70  40
LBL  66  83  66  79 /   0  30  70  70
HYS  67  86  67  77 /   0  10  40  50
P28  69  88  70  75 /   0  10  40  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH


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