Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241737
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Quiet conditions will prevail across western Kansas today and
tonight as a general zonal flow aloft remains in place across the
Western High Plains. A lack of moisture/instability will cap precip
chances across the region through Monday night. The warming trend
continues today as a prevailing south to southwesterly flow enhances
warm air advection across western Kansas. Expect widespread 80s(F)
for highs this afternoon. Fairly mild temperatures are likely tonight
with lows only down into the upper 40s(F) across west central Kansas
to the 50s(F) in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Precip chances return to western Kansas late Tuesday as medium range
models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure digging southeast
across the Central Rockies into the Western High Plains early in the
period, in turn creating an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft
across the region. Meanwhile, an attendant frontal boundary is projected
to push into western Kansas by mid to late afternoon providing ample
forcing. However, instability is expected to remain fairly limited
with only a marginal amount of moisture lifting northward into eastern
and portions of central Kansas. As a result, showers will be possible
across portions of western Kansas Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night
with only a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms. Severe weather
is unlikely. Precip chances will drop off throughout the day Wednesday
as the upper level system pushes eastward out of the Central Plains.
After a brief break, precip chances return Thursday as a secondary
upper level shortwave cycles through the northwest flow across the
Central Rockies into the Western High Plains. It remains to be seen
how much instability will build, but at the very least, showers will
be possible across western Kansas late Thursday under this more
active pattern.

The warming trend will come to an end Tuesday as cooler air filters
southward into western Kansas behind a cold front pushing through
the high plains. Highs are only expected to reach the 60s(F) across
west central Kansas with the 70s(F) to near 80F likely ahead of the
front in south central Kansas. Much cooler air will surge southward
into western Kansas Wednesday pushing high temperatures well down
below normal. Temperatures are expected to remain on the cooler side
through the end of the week with yet another cold front forecast to
push through western Kansas ahead of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

A low pressure trough moving through west central and southwest Kansas
will bring northwesterly winds to the Garden City and Liberal terminals
this afternoon with winds becoming southwesterly at Hays. Winds at
all terminals will become southerly to southeasterly overnight. Low
level wind shear is expected to develop for a few hours overnight at
Dodge City but should stay east/southeast of the remainder of the terminals.
A cold front will push through the area late tonight and Tuesday morning.
This will bring northerly winds back to the area along with a period
of MVFR/IFR cigs to Hays.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  51  73  39 /   0   0  20  50
GCK  84  49  70  38 /   0   0  30  60
EHA  89  52  71  40 /   0   0  40  60
LBL  91  52  75  41 /   0   0  30  60
HYS  83  51  65  39 /   0  10  20  40
P28  81  56  78  45 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Gerard



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