


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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416 FXUS63 KDDC 092317 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 617 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms late Thursday and Thursday Night, along and west of Liberal to Dodge to Russell, with the main severe weather risk damaging straight line winds to 70 mph. - Widespread lower 100s for highs Thursday afternoon, especially along and west of Highway 283 and the Red Hills region. Very low relative humidity will keep Heat Indices at or below actual air temperature. - Thunderstorms remain in the forecast late Friday/Friday Night and late Saturday/Saturday Night as the next cold front moves slowly across southwest Kansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 The mid-afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a clear sky devoid of any cloud, including cumulus, across our southwest Kansas region thanks to larger scale subsidence providing general sinking air across much of the troposphere as well as lower dewpoints vs. this time yesterday afternoon. Thunderstorm chances in the first period (Tonight) will be very small, and only confined to the far northeast area of our CWA (Ellis County), as this will be the closest part of our CWA to tonight`s eventual mesoscale convective system (MCS) that moves southeast across southern Nebraska into northern Kansas late tonight. On Thursday, a fairly intense (by July standards) shortwave trough will move east across the Colorado Rockies/southern Wyoming, leading to broad surface low pressure development from southeastern Colorado into far southwestern Nebraska. It will also serve to increase low level downslope momentum just ahead of the low with 850mb temperatures warming to +30 to +32C across western Kansas generally west of Highway 283. This will support widespread lower 100s for high temperatures where dewpoint temperatures will also drop down to as low as the upper 40s along/west of Highway 83. Very low relative humidity will result in the upper teens to lower 20s percent out west. Despite this, very high-based thunderstorms will likely develop along the trough axis/low late in the afternoon, first across far eastern Colorado then spreading into far western Kansas early to mid evening. Damaging straight line winds to 70 mph will be the greatest risk given the large inverted-V forecast soundings. Eventually, given the increased large scale forcing for ascent, a line of storms will likely form as cold pools take over with a larger area susceptible to 55+ mph wind gusts out ahead of the storms. For this reason, the latest SPC Day Two convective outlook has expanded the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) area to include more of southwest Kansas, generally along/west of a Liberal to Dodge City to Russell, KS line. Going forward into Friday and Saturday, western Kansas will find itself beneath a general west-northwest pattern aloft as the 500mb mean trough axis moves slowly east across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A cold front will follow this mid level trough axis over the weekend, eventually pushing south across southwest Kansas with additional storm chances along this front over the weekend. Even as the front passes just to out south, it will slow down and eventually stall out with post-frontal winds becoming upslope again with good residual moisture in place (dewpoints mainly in the mid 60s with easterly component surface winds). This will favor thunderstorm activity off the eastern Colorado higher terrain, as is typically the case in a pattern line this...in addition to storms developing in the low level convergence axis along the old front itself. For this reason, much of the area will have 30-40 POPs Friday Night and 30-50 POPs Saturday Night (highest southwest Saturday Night). After our hot day Thursday, temperatures will pull back down into the lower 90s Friday and even cooler than that Saturday. The air mass will slowly modify back to summer norms Sunday and beyond, but there does not appear to be any very hot afternoons coming up any time soon after Thursday`s hot day && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 611 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 VFR conditions will prevail overnight with the exception of around the HYS terminal where a line of thunderstorms may move through around 06-09Z lowering ceilings/visibility and increasing wind. Winds will generally be from the south overnight, becoming breezy by late tomorrow morning into the afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Hovorka_42