Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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332
FXUS63 KDDC 270001
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
701 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Focus in the near term is on convective chances this evening and
during the overnight. Broad surface high pressure across the
Northern Plains into Kansas today is slowly giving way to lee side
troughing/cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado. Convective allowing
models this afternoon continue to develop discreet storms across the
Raton Mesa region, with eastward propagation into southwest Kansas by
early this evening, leaving the major uncertainty lying in how far
east any of this convection may reach and the duration of it`s
severe mode. Large hail and damaging will be the primary threats
with any storms.

The forecast area will again be completely post frontal on Saturday,
with any convection being relegated to initiation over the more
upslope high terrain regions of south central CO. Temperatures will
not rise as warm Saturday afternoon with the northern reaches only
the low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

A developing ridge over the western states heading into next week
will place western KS in general northwest flow limiting the
coverage of organized severe convection through mid week. Cyclonic
flow across the northern plains with broader zonal flow farther
south maintains a near climatology pattern over the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Light southeast winds will prevail through 12z ahead of a cold
front. Behind the front, winds will shift to the north-northwest
at 10-20 kts. Some of the models indicate MVFR CIGS developing
late tonight but decided to keep it out of the TAFs due
to fairly dry airmass and low certainty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  78  52  78 /  10  20  10   0
GCK  56  75  50  77 /  20  20  20   0
EHA  55  78  50  76 /  30  20  30   0
LBL  57  80  52  77 /  20  20  20   0
HYS  59  72  52  77 /  40  40  10   0
P28  62  85  56  80 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch



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