000
FXUS63 KDDC 152356
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
656 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Tonight:

With comparison to last night, fairly "mild" lows are expected tonight.
Really, these values are close to climo. Expecting mid to upper 30sF
across the western zones to around 40F across the central and eastern
zones. There will be some high level clouds drifting in from the NW,
but no other significant weather impacts expected. S/SW winds of 5
to 20 mph expected through the overnight.

Tomorrow:

A frontal passage is expected tomorrow. Given the dry low level atmosphere,
no precipitation is expected during the short term period. There will
be mid to high level clouds, but that is about it. A gradient of temperatures
with 60sF across west-central Kansas to lower 70sF across south-central
Kansas is expected. No anticipating any fire weather concerns due to
marginal relative humidities.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A polar jet with an attendant upper level shortwave trough will move
from the Intermountain West and across the Plains on Thursday. This
system is coming out as an open and progressive wave and is forecast
to be warmer than previous models advertised. Earlier model runs
showed colder layer temps and better chances of accumulating snow.
Now with 850mb temps only approaching zero and forecast highs in the
40s to mid 50s, the chances for accumulating snow look low at this
time. Have some minor accumulations of around 1/2 inch from near
Syracuse to Scott City and this may be questionable as well. Some
light rain will develop across eastern Colorado and spread into
far western Kansas by around midnight, then across much of the
rest of western Kansas by morning. A mix of rain and snow is then
possible from Syracuse to Wakeeney and Hays towards sunrise, then
a chance for rain and snow mixed into the mid morning hours from
Johnson City to Garden City to near Dodge City and Lacrosse. By
afternoon, as temperatures rise slowly, the rain and snow mixed
areas should end, with the rest of the precipitation as a cold
rain. The area of rain will then end from west to east with the
upper trough in the afternoon and exit south central Kansas areas
before 7 pm. Most areas should see total liquid rainfall amounts
ranging from one tenth to one quarter of an inch. Highs on
Thursday will be in the 40s with some 50s in the Pratt to Medicine
Lodge areas.

Then for the upcoming Easter Weekend, another chance of measurable
rain comes into western Kansas as an subtropical jet and shortwave
moves northeastward from the Desert Southwest. A dryline is forecast
to set up in western Kansas on Saturday, with good low level
moisture out ahead of it across much of south central Kansas. Good
speed and directional shear is also forecast for some possible
rotating thunderstorms. But it is too early to tell on the
severity and the moisture return. Some showers and thunderstorms
may linger into Sunday morning as another wave moves across the
Central Plains. The best chances for lingering showers and
isolated thunderstorms, looks to be across south central sections
on late Saturday into early Sunday. High temperatures warm from
the 60s on Friday and into the lower 70s for the Weekend.

Large variations in model patterns evolve beyond Monday into the
middle of next week with some unsettled weather moving into the
Plains by mid next week, otherwise looks dry. Temps warm well into
the 70s on Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A weak cold front will pass across the TAF sites between 14 and
16Z, resulting in a wind shift to the north 15-17 kts. Until then,
winds will persist from the south at around 13-15 kts. VFR
conditions will prevail in the absence of low level moisture.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  40  69  38  47 /   0   0  50  70
GCK  36  64  36  47 /   0   0  60  60
EHA  38  65  37  47 /   0   0  60  60
LBL  37  67  37  48 /   0   0  50  60
HYS  41  66  34  46 /   0   0  60  60
P28  41  73  41  50 /   0   0  40  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Finch