Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 300500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SOUTHERN KANSAS CONTINUED TO BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
JET STREAK IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A WEAKENING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONT AND CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, CONTINUED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW, ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS, HAD ONLY
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS, PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM JOHNSON TO SUBLETTE TO FORD TO PRATT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE IN COMANCHE, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTIES.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THE MODELS HINT AT A CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER ON THURSDAY, BUT IT COULD BE SUPPRESSED EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH
MAINLY 80S. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CONFIGURATION WILL
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL COMMENCE, WITH HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 90 ALONG INTERSTATE 70
BY FRIDAY, WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE MID 90S ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BY SUNDAY,
WITH LOWER 90S FARTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE, IN THE
PRESENCE OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH TAF PD. THERE MIGHT BE SOME WEAK WAA INDUCED
TS FOR KDDC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
TS/CB IN THE TAF FOR NOW GIVEN OPERATIONAL FLIGHT IMPACT IS QUESTIONABLE.
WILL WATCH AND AMEND AS NEEDED. KGCK/KHYS SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTION FREE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY AT 5-10 KT MAGNITUDES. CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  85  65  89 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  63  86  64  89 /  10  30  30  20
EHA  65  86  65  88 /  10  30  30  20
LBL  66  86  67  89 /  20  30  30  30
HYS  63  87  64  92 /  10  10  20  20
P28  67  85  67  89 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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