582
FXUS63 KDDC 241730
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Upper level high pressure centered over Colorado into the Great Basin
will build east into the central and southern Plains through tonight.
The associated increase in thickness values along with plenty of
sunshine due to a fairly dry airmass over the region will result in
daytime high temperatures some 2 to 5 degrees warmer than on Sunday.
While I couldn`t totally rule out a stray thunderstorm approaching
southwest Kansas late this afternoon, think that we should remain dry
through tonight as instability is weak and no appreciable forcing
mechanisms are present across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

On Tuesday, a strong upper level low pressure system will move
east across southern Canada while a trailing shortwave trough
extending from the low moves east over the northern and central
Plains. This will force the lee side trough out of the eastern
slopes of the Rockies and into west central and northwest Kansas
Tuesday night along with a chance for thunderstorms to central and
west central Kansas. The upper level flow over the central High
Plains into the central Rockies becomes more northwesterly behind
this wave. This will help push a cool front south from the
northern Plains across Kansas Wednesday afternoon and evening
along with increasing chances for thunderstorms. There is some
uncertainty as to how far south the front will progress with the
GEM and GFS a little more aggressive than the ECMWF. All the models
have it south of the forecast area by Thursday evening so precipitation
chances should also be diminishing. Forecast builder POPs may be a
little high Thursday afternoon and evening.

The models tend to agree that the upper ridge will retrograde
westward into the Rockies later in the week with northwesterly
flow aloft setting up over the central High Plains. With decent
low level moisture in place across western Kansas, weak
disturbances in the northwest flow could help generate widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms across western Kansas
especially Friday night into Saturday. This flow pattern holds on
into early next week and should help keep temperatures at more
seasonal levels in the upper 80s and lower 90s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

A weak surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies
through the period, resulting in south winds, the strongest
of which will be in the daytime. Upper level ridging and
lack of low level fronts will preclude thunderstorms activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  71  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  94  69  98  73 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  93  68  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  96  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  98  71  98  75 /  10  10  10  20
P28  98  73  98  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Finch