000
FXUS63 KDDC 310811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASES ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. THIS IS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINS ABOVE THE BAJA REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AS
WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY BECOMING BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIPITATION MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE ALL OVER TO SNOW AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO SLOW
TO TURN COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF RUNS MAINTAIN OUR AREA ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY UNTIL MID EVENING SATURDAY
WHEN HE FRONT IS ABLE TO BE FORCED THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BY THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM. EVENT HE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL AIR
APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION, AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL COLD ENOUGH  ACROSS A LARGE ENOUGH PORTION OF THE AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE UPPER STRETCHING AND DEFORMATION HAS
BASICALLY CEASED.

THE COLDEST AIR IN A FEW WEEKS SHOULD THEN BE NOTICED BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE, DRIER AIR AND
GOOD LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL COOLING OF A COLDER DRIER AIRMASS IS
POSSIBLE. THE MOS OUTPUT FROM AT LEAST THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS ARE
THE COLDEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL OUTPUT WAS
NOT FAR FROM THESE COLDER SOLUTION AS WELL, WHICH WAS USED AS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. A STRONG WARMING TREND ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NOTICED HEADING INTO MID WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY BACK INTO THE 60S BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER JET/SHORTWAVE/COLD
FRONT AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FALL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 12 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  30  36  13 /  70  60  10   0
GCK  46  29  37  13 /  40  50   0   0
EHA  45  32  40  21 /  40  40   0   0
LBL  45  33  41  17 /  60  60  10   0
HYS  42  25  29  10 /  50  60   0   0
P28  43  33  38  13 / 100 100  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42