Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242013
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON A GREATER SCALE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN THE MODELS DEVELOP A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART. IN THE MEANTIME, A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN COLORADO LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN KS, HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC,
LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, IN
ADDITION TO GOOD SHEAR AND CAPES FOR SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY RAIN. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE STILL RECENTLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
MOS WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 2 THROUGH 4
PERIODS. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A LARGE PVA REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETURNS. BY
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP COULD BECOME MORE
SUBSIDENT AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LASTING INTO
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
MAY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT (AFTER
03Z). WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH A CONTINUED
UPSLOPE WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST, CIGS AND PERHAPS VISBYS WILL
LOWER TO IFR/LIFR BETWEEN 04 AND 07Z, AND THEN IMPROVE AFTER 14Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  79  55  78 /  20  30  20  20
GCK  54  76  52  77 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  53  75  53  78 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  55  78  54  79 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  58  77  53  79 /  40  30  30  10
P28  60  83  58  77 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH


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