Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 120609
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1209 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Near term forecast is on track and no changes needed. Perusing 18Z
data suggests that stratus could be an issue tomorrow. There is some
consensus in the need for lower maximum temperatures. Have made some
minor adjustments and have lowered highs for tomorrow. This will be
most noticeable in central Kansas where the stratus will linger longer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For tonight, a weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft will send
another wind shift and cold front across western Kansas. Light west
to southwest winds will shift to the northwest and north this
evening and overnight. There could also be some more stratus up
by Hays towards morning. Only some high level cirrus clouds are
forecast overnight for the rest of the region. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30.

For Friday, a more significant cold front moves across western
Kansas as a stronger shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest.
Light northwest winds shift to the east and northeast at 12 to 22
mph with increasing clouds. Highs will vary greatly from east to
west with around 60 far west near the Colorado border to only around
40 at Hays. The Dodge City area is expecting around 50 for the high.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For Friday night into Saturday, Arctic surface high pressure will
build into the Plains and then move into the Mississippi Valley.
Much colder air will push west into western Kansas with northeast
winds becoming southeasterly upslope. Shallow lift above the ground
could set the stage for some light freezing drizzle mainly north of
Dodge City after midnight Friday night and into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be become mostly cloudy to cloudy with some
fog possible. Lows Saturday morning will be around 19 near and
east of Dodge City and from 24 to 30 west. Highs on Saturday will
range from the mid and upper 50s far west near the Colorado
border, to only around 40 from Garden City to Dodge City and
Medicine Lodge, and only in the mid 30s from Wakeeney to Lacrosse
and north. If lower clouds and stratus stick around on Saturday
afternoon, then highs could be much colder.

For the period of Sunday into next Thursday, a couple of shortwave
troughs moves across the Plains on early Sunday, then again early
Monday, but should be dry. Warmer upper level ridging then begins to
move into the Plains Monday into Thursday with a warming trend and
no precipitation expected. Lows will slowly warm from around 30 on
Monday morning to the mid and upper 30s by Wednesday morning into
Thursday morning. Highs warm from the 50s Sunday and Monday, into
the 60s to around 70 into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The prevailing condition through about 12 hours will remain VFR
across the local terminals before an increasing chance for IFR
category stratus becomes a potential impact. The 12km NAM indicates
upslope stratus developing extending far enough west Friday evening
to impact even DDC and GCK into the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  21  41  30 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  50  23  46  30 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  56  30  58  36 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  55  27  50  33 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  38  19  36  27 /   0  10  10   0
P28  47  21  39  30 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Russell


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