Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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682
FXUS63 KDDC 221930
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
130 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The quiet and dry November marches on this afternoon. An
unseasonably strong high pressure ridge (595 dm centered south of
San Diego) continues to provide dry subsident NW flow aloft, with
cirrus rotating over the ridge axis into the plains. Most
locations along and west of US 283 will achieve the 60s this
afternoon, with the eastern zones holding in the 50s.

Tonight...Much milder than last night, with warm air advection
kicking in at 850 mb and a NW breeze keeping the boundary layer
mixed. Upper 30s will be common Thanksgiving morning, with many
locales south and west of Dodge City holding in the lower 40s.

Thanksgiving...One of the nicest Thanksgiving holidays SW Kansas
has ever seen, with perfect conditions during the afternoon.
Unseasonably warm (near record high) temperatures in the lower to
mid 70s will be enjoyed (the record high at Dodge City is
74/2005). These expected temperatures are about 20 degrees above
normal for late November, and given the dry ground, went near or
above the warmest guidance available. Full sunshine expected with
occasional wisps of cirrus, and winds will be light, less than 10
mph. A forecast to be thankful for, and excellent for holiday
travel.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The long stretch of dry weather for SW KS will continue through
the weekend into next week, through at least next Tuesday.
Confidence is increasing that a strong storm system will impact
the plains about the middle of next week, producing strong winds
and much colder temperatures, but prospects for precipitation
still appear very limited.

Friday...Unseasonably warm. The question is, exactly how warm.
A very warm plume at 850 mb will spread into SW KS through the
morning and midday hours, with 850 mb temperatures exceeding 20C.
Temperatures will skyrocket, well into the 70s, during the first
half of Friday in the well-mixed, downslope prefrontal compression
environment. The next dry cold front and gusty north winds will
spread quickly south from noon to 6 pm Friday, clearing the
Oklahoma border by sunset. As such, temperatures will likely fall
non-diurnally during the afternoon. Southern zones that stay ahead
of the front the longest, that are also favored by downslope, may
easily reach 80 early Friday afternoon before the cold front
arrives.

Saturday...Sunny and "cooler", but still about 10 degrees above
late November normals, in the 60-65 range. Strong upper high over
Sonora Mexico on Saturday will start getting shoved out onto the
plains on Sunday, with a strong rise in 500 mb heights over
Kansas. Another warming trend results, ending up near 70 Sunday
afternoon.

Monday...Unseasonably warm again, with record highs likely. Flow
transitions to SW aloft, in response to a very strong trough
arriving in the Great Basin. 12z ECMWF progs 850 mb temperatures
in the 20-24 C range, with 70s expected. Given strong downslope
components and the dry ground, feel model blend max T grid is too
cool, and some 80s will be realized. With pressure gradients
increasing late Monday, and especially across the southern zones,
may have to contend with higher end fire danger Monday afternoon.

12z ECMWF has trended slower and stronger with the Great Basin
trough, placing it near the Four Corners Tuesday evening. GFS is
more progressive and is a common bias for that model at that time
range. At any rate, a very strong cold front is due by Tuesday
night, with very strong north winds. Deeper ECMWF solution would
argue for light rain/snow across the northern zones early
Wednesday. Pops are not supported by the model blend (yet) so the
forecast will remain dry for now. High winds may be the main
calling card from this system, as ECMWF shows the closed 500 mb
low deepening significantly as it crosses the plains through
Wednesday. At any rate, it appears we will finally have some
weather to talk about the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Excellent flying weather will continue through Thanksgiving, with
VFR/SKC, scattered cirrus and light winds. Modestly gusty SW winds
this afternoon will diminish at sunset, and trend NW near 10 kts
or less through 12z Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  38  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  65  39  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  67  43  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  65  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  58  39  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
P28  53  34  72  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner



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