Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210536
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1236 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

A strong upper level storm system will amplify across
the Rockies and southern plains through Friday. Surface
high pressure settling across the central plains this afternoon
will shift to the east tonight. Surface low pressure is expected
to develop on the southern high plains tonight and then move into
the southern plains Friday. Western Kansas will be north of the
front with ample elevated moisture so that widespread showers
with embedded thunderstorms are expected, on Friday. Thunderstorm
clusters over the southern plains may limit the intensity of the
rain showers this far north, but widespread amounts from a quarter
to a half inch are expected, with even heavier amounts possible
in central Kansas. Highs may only reach into the upper 40s to
mid 50s given the cloud cover and rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

A drier airmass will move into western Kansas Friday night
into Sunday with continued cool temperatures. Reading in the
mid to upper 30s are expected Saturday morning with highs
in the upper 50s Saturday. Patchy frost is possible Sunday
morning given expected clear skies and light winds with lows in
the lower to mid 30s. A warming trend will commence Sunday with
highs warming into the upper 60s Sunday and lower 80s Monday. A
weak cold front will pass Monday night with highs falling into
the mid 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Progressive shortwave
troughs are expected to pass across western Kansas next week and
into next weekend. It is still too early to tell whether any of
these will amplify enough to bring low level moisture, with severe
storm chances or significant rainfall into central or western
Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

Local TAF area will be under the influence of a cold conveyor
belt today, with periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms. As a
result the main impacts for aviation will be IFR and potential for
LIFR CIGS with reduced MVFR VSBY`s in rain through the day. The
system will not lift out of the area until later tonight.

The local TAF area will be under the influence of a cold conveyor
belt today, with periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms. As a
result the main impacts for aviation will be IFR/potential for
LIFR CIGS with reduced MVFR VSBY`s in rain through the day. The
rain should begin to become widespread by around 15Z, and not
lift out of the area until late this evening.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  52  38  59 /  70 100  40  10
GCK  46  51  36  58 /  50  90  20  10
EHA  47  54  37  58 /  80  90  10   0
LBL  48  54  37  58 / 100 100  10   0
HYS  46  53  40  60 /  50 100  90  10
P28  50  55  42  60 /  30 100  70  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Russell



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