Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180717
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
217 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...Updated Fire Weather Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The surface cold front will remain deep into the panhandles this
afternoon, but begin to turn back north as a warm front by later
this evening. The rapid onset of warm advection by midnight will
support scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms across the
region, which may linger over central Kansas into the early morning
hours on Monday. CAMs are not in great agreement on location of
storm clusters, however the confidence is high for some convective
development in this conditionally unstable environment. Lows for
early Monday do not look to be much warmer despite warm advection,
however may be noticeably warmer in the southeast sections.

The warm front will help scour out the low level moisture, bringing
full insolation back and a bump back into the mid and upper 80s
Monday afternoon. Light south or southwest surface winds though
the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Stronger surface winds are expected Tuesday as low pressure develops
across eastern Co/ NW KS in advance of the next approaching cold
front. Given the warmer conditions and surface dew points
approaching critical levels, red flag conditions could be met in
the afternoon Tuesday. The boundary Tuesday night will turn
surface winds back from the north on Wednesday, with another
comfortable afternoon near climatological highs. During this time
the models carve our a deep slow moving trough across the western
United States, with several upper jet streak segments moving
through the High Plains into the Upper Midwest by. the weekend. If
these model trends persist, good/increasing chances for local
severe thunderstorms and appreciable rainfall can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Ongoing convection near the Colorado border at 05z will move east
across southwest Kansas during the overnight hours. Based on the
latest HRRR, NMM, and ARW along with the latest radar trends these
storms will cross the Liberal area between 06z and 10z Monday.
Garden City and Dodge City will be on the northern Fringe but VCTS
will be possible between 08z and 10z. A period of MVFR ceilings
possible overnight at all taf sites but the NAM, and RAP model
soundings was shallow and last on a few hours (06z to 09z) at
Garden, Liberal, and Dodge. The better chance for MVFR and even a
period of IFR conditions will occur at Hays early this morning.
After daybreak VFR conditions are expected/will develop at all TAF
sites as south/southwesterly winds increase to around 15 knots.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

A dry line will move east across western Kansas during the day on
Tuesday and dew points are forecast by the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF to
fall back into the 30s west of this boundary. Based on the
forecast 2M temperatures behind this boundary and low dew points
the relative humidity values should easily fall back into the
teens across most of western Kansas. Relative values as low as 12
to 16 percent will be possible west of highway 83. Based on these
expected conditions will be issuing a Fire Watch for Tuesday
afternoon along and west of a Scott City to Garden City to Liberal
line. Wind speeds may not be as strong at 15 to 20 mph near the
Colorado border late day Tuesday given the location for the
surface trough in far eastern Colorado but still a watch appears
warranted in these locations also. Outdoor burning should not be
attempted in or near the fire watch area on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  62  94  59 /  20  10   0   0
GCK  87  58  94  56 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  88  59  91  54 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  90  60  93  55 /  20  10   0   0
HYS  84  62  94  61 /  40  10   0   0
P28  88  68  95  68 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert



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