Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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501
FXUS63 KDDC 301215
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
715 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Closed 552 dm cyclone passing through NW Kansas this morning,
with cool advection and persistent stratus across SW Kansas. The
meaningful rainfall has ended. Kept slight chances of a rain
shower mentioned across the northern zones today, to account for
any wraparound moisture and the trailing vorticity at the base of
the low, but it will not be much. Unseasonably chilly today,
compliments of cool NW flow behind cyclone ejecting to near Grand
Island by 7 pm. Afternoon high temperatures Saturday will range
from only the upper 40s in NW Trego county to the upper 60s at
Kiowa in Barber County. Most locations averaging 10-15 degrees
below average for the final day of April, with NW winds of 15-25
mph this afternoon. Low stratus ceilings this morning will
gradually lift and erode to broken stratocumulus this afternoon
for most locales, although lower ceilings will be more persistent
with northern extent (near Hays) closer to the ejecting low and
its associated vorticity lobes. A mostly cloudy sky will persist
tonight, with lows Sunday morning ranging from the lower 30s in
northern Hamilton county to the lower 40s in Barber county.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The next closed low will be near Phoenix at sunrise Sunday, but
rapidly weaken into a weak open wave as it arrives in Kansas
late Sunday and Sunday night. Still, lift and moisture ahead of
this arriving system will be sufficient for another round of
scattered rain showers for SW KS, centered on the Sunday
afternoon/evening time frame. With forcing for ascent weakening as
it arrives, kept pop grids conservative (mainly 50% or less), and
rainfall from this system will pale in comparison from what we
have seen recently. Still carrying 0.10-0.20 inch in the QPF
grids, but this may be overdone with this weakening system.
Another cloudy unseasonably chilly day Sunday, with little change
in 850 temps/thickness from Saturday. Highs mainly in the 50s,
well below normal for the first day of May.

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas on Monday, providing a
few more scattered showers and keeping temperatures still well
below normal. The remainder of next week will feature quiet
weather with a pronounced warming trend. Strong high pressure over
Alberta Monday afternoon will evolve into a sharp ridge over the
Rocky Mountains Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon temperatures
will warm several degrees each of these days, although very wet
soils will slow this process down some. Friday will be the warmest
day of this forecast, as high pressure ridge axis spreads into
Kansas. Strong closed low near Los Angeles Friday evening is
progged by ECMWF to eject quickly to the Nebraska panhandle
Saturday afternoon. This evolution would bring strong winds to
SW KS late this week, along with severe convective potential along
the associated dry line. Entering the peak of our severe weather
season, and this will be watched carefully over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 709 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Northwesterly surface winds will prevail in the wake of an upper
level low and surface low pressure system. The highest winds will
be with daytime heating. IFR stratus will gradually lift this
morning but will likely fill back in later in the morning at a
higher level (MVFR) due to mixing. VFR CIGS are expected to
return this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Some stratus
may return near the end of the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  39  55  40 /  10  10  30  50
GCK  55  37  53  38 /  10  10  30  50
EHA  57  38  51  38 /  10  20  60  50
LBL  60  39  54  41 /  10  10  50  50
HYS  52  40  53  39 /  30  20  10  50
P28  65  43  62  43 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ043-
061>063-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Finch



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