Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240001
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
601 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Low clouds, fog, freezing drizzle and possibly even some light
snow can be expected across much of western and north central
Kansas late tonight and early Saturday morning. Based on the
latest model soundings it appears that ice accumulations will
generally be less than one tenth of an inch. This will likely
once again to create travel problems early Monday morning. The area
most favorable for this upcoming freezing precipitation event
will be north of a Johnson to Dodge City to Larned line. In
addition to this freezing drizzle there will also be a slight chance
for some light snow, mainly north and west of a Garden City. If
any snow does accumulate early Saturday morning it will not be
much and will average less than one half of an inch. Given this
wintry mix late tonight and early Saturday will go ahead an
issue/expand the winter weather advisory for late tonight and
early Saturday for the locations where the higher ice
accumulations can be expected.

This precipitation will be occurring ahead of an upper level
trough as it crosses western Kansas early in the day. As this
upper wave passes late today the precipitation will end as a
surface boundary crosses western Kansas. Behind this front some
dry air will return to western Kansas which should yield some
clearing skies during the afternoon. Given the afternoon sunshine
and 900mb to 850mb temperature forecast Saturday afternoon the
highs are still expected to rebound back into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Late Saturday night and early Sunday another upper level trough
will quickly move east across western Kansas. A weak cold
front/surface boundary is also forecast move across western Kansas
and then briefly stall out in northern Oklahoma/Panhandle of
Texas. Models not showing much, if any, cold air behind this
Sunday frontal passage and moisture will be limited ahead of this
next upper level system. There may be some clouds ahead of this
next upper level system but no precipitation is expected. Also
given the mixed layer temperatures behind this frontal boundary
Sunday afternoon the high on Sunday will be at least as warm as
the highs Saturday afternoon. Many areas across north central
Kansas will have highs up to 10 degrees warmer compared to the
highs Saturday.

Warm and dry conditions will then return early next week Given
these warmer temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy conditions
early next week the main hazards to look forward to will be
increasing fire weather risks until the next cold front moves into
western Kansas late Tuesday/early Wednesday. This cold front mid
week will briefly bring some slightly cooler temperatures into
northern Kansas but what little cooling that is expected will not
last long. Warmer temperatures will be quickly returning late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 557 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Isentropic lift will increase ahead of an upper level disturbance,
resulting in areas of freezing drizzle spreading from southwest to
northeast across the TAF sites between 04 and 15z. CIGS are
expected to fall to LIFR at KGCK, KDDC and eventually KHYS this
evening and overnight and then start to improve after 15-17z as a
weak front passes. Dense fog was ongoing at KLBL and may persist
through 15z before veering winds ahead of a front and daytime
heating clear it out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  46  19  51 /  70  20   0   0
GCK  27  43  17  48 /  80  20   0   0
EHA  26  46  21  50 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  29  48  19  51 /  20  10   0   0
HYS  27  38  18  50 /  70  70   0   0
P28  33  49  22  54 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ this evening
to noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-
075>079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch



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