Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 300812
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THERE IS GROWING CONCERN AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE NECESSITY
FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE PULLED THE TRIGGER AND ISSUED
A LONG-LEAD FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALL HINT AT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. SOME VALUES MAY EVEN REACH HARD FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA
(AT OR BELOW 28F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ATOP THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF SFC TROUGH WITH STRONGEST WINDS
GENERALLY ALONG A LIBERAL TO RUSSELL LINE.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP BY THE AREA
TONIGHT...FORCING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...VERY LARGE LOW AND MID LEVEL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THINK WINDS WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW
AS LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
OBSERVED TO THE NORTH IF WINDS DO DECOUPLE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
STRONG COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ON
THURSDAY WITH COOL SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING DEEP MIXING/STRONG WARMING UNLIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BASED ON CLOUD COVER
AND THE 900 TO 850 MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
HOW LONG THE STATUS LINGERS AND WHERE IT WILL BE LONGER DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IMPORTANT TO HOW COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG
THE STATUS WILL LINGER AND BASED ON THE ECMWF, GFS, NAM
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WESTERN KANSAS. DID TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NORTHERLY WINDS LATE FRIDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS.
GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S
WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES COOLER ON SATURDAY MORNING THAN THOSE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 AND GOOD COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND THEN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL
DRAW MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. BASED ON THE MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTRIBUTED TO A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN KS THIS EVENING. THIS
RESULTED IN SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND A NOTABLE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR
SYRACUSE TO COLBY AND NORTON. THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY WITH MODERATE
GUSTINESS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  33  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  67  32  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  67  33  57  40 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  68  34  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  65  32  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
P28  71  36  53  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
065-066-079-081-090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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