Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 070514
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1214 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH 250MB JET STREAK LOCATED AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE BASE OF THE
CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. FURTHER EAST A
500MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A THE 700MB AND 850MB BAROCLINIC/DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AN AREA OF BETTER 850MB
AND 700MB MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF THIS DEFORMATION
ZONE AT 00Z TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY NEAR THIS SURFACE HIGH RANGED FROM +14
TO +16C.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES IN SASKATCHEWAN HAD ALREADY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT HYS AND GCK TO 3-4SM AS OF 05Z. THE VISIBILITY AT
DDC ALSO HAS BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE
SMOKE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED VISIBILITIES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES TO FALL OR STAY IN
THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR HOW LONG THIS SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BUT WILL IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
GIVEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL EXIST BETWEEN A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SO WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL BACK INTO THE RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AND THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILING BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AND DDC
AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  80  64  88 /  10  30  50  40
GCK  55  81  64  89 /  10  40  50  30
EHA  55  85  65  90 /  10  50  50  20
LBL  56  83  66  90 /  10  50  50  20
HYS  56  80  63  84 /  10  20  60  60
P28  61  80  66  90 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT



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