Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 110745
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
145 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2013
...Update to long term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013
Short range models indicate the upper level shortwave in southern
Canada shifting southeast across the Northern Plains tonight. Even
though an attendant cold front will push southward through western
Kansas overnight, dry conditions are expected to persist through
Wednesday afternoon with a lack available low level moisture.
Cold, but closer to seasonal temperatures, are expected tonight as
the aforementioned cold front moves through the region. Colder air
will filter southward into western Kansas sending H85 temperatures
back down below 0C across the entire region with near 5C below in
central and west central Kansas. This will likely drop lows well
into the teens(F) with a few upper digits(F) possible in west
central Kansas and near the I-70 corridor in central Kansas. A
surface high in the Dakotas will then sink south-southeast into
central and eastern Kansas Wednesday helping to lock in this next
push of arctic air in across the Western High Plains with H85
temperatures remaining well below 0C. Expect highs only up into
the 20s(F) across central Kansas with the lower to mid 30s(F)
possible across extreme southwest Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013
A wave will move across Kansas Friday, however the region will be on
the wrong side of the jet and in isentropic downglide/subsidence. Evolution
of deterministic runs over the last few nights supports this. Pops will
remain aob 14 percent. The rest of the forecast is northwesterly flow
aloft with a low level weak warm air advection pattern in place. Temperatures
will trend to near or above normal.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013
As weak upper level and lower level high pressure systems continue
to cover most of western Kansas, VFR flight conditions will
prevail. Very few clouds are anticipated, and winds will be light
from a north to northwesterly direction.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 28 13 48 23 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 29 13 48 20 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 33 18 51 22 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 31 14 48 29 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 26 12 49 21 / 0 0 0 10
P28 28 14 50 24 / 0 0 0 10