Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211142
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
542 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE MAINLY ZONAL
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS ENSURED A
CONTINUATION OF LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE
TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT NIGHT, WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS COOL TO THE
SATURATION POINT, FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED. IT WILL TAKE
THE PASSAGE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT TO DISRUPT
THIS PATTERN.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
ONLY SUCCEEDING IN SHUNTING THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON TO A LINE FROM HAYS TO KINSLEY TO ASHLAND.
THE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE
CITY, PRATT, STAFFORD AND MEDICINE LODGE FROM GETTING OUT OF THE
40S. MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
50S FROM GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL WESTWARD.

BY LATE TONIGHT, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A STRONG ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY 6 AM. WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NOT BE A VERY COLD AIRMASS SO THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AND THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS JET WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND FRONT
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST
AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
SHOW AN INITIAL SHOT OF WEAK 850 MILLIBAR COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS
FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY GIVEN
THE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF AS LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BEHIND
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF KANSAS
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE
KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. LATER IN
THE WEEK, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS AND GEM ARE BRINGING MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER
SOUTH. THE CURRENT SUPERBLEND KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A BAND OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST FROM AROUND LIBERAL
THROUGH GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND HAYS DURING THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD BEFORE. WILL CARRY PREVAILING OR TEMPO
LIFR VSBYS AT GARDEN CITY AND HAYS THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. AFTER
THAT TIME, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO GARDEN CITY WHILE DODGE
CITY AND HAYS WILL SEE IFR CIGS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE LIFTING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  35  52  28 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  50  33  51  25 /  10  10  20  10
EHA  57  33  50  27 /   0  20  20  20
LBL  51  34  53  28 /   0  10  20  10
HYS  48  35  50  28 /  10  20  10  10
P28  47  38  54  30 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-063-064-076-077-086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...GERARD


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