Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200506
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1206 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday evening)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A northwest flow pattern aloft was well-established across the
Western Plains. At the surface, high pressure was in control, with
abundant low level moisture pushed well to the south across Texas.
In time, this low level moisture will start to pull back north as
the high shifts east and a lee trough develops at the surface.
This process will begin late tonight just off the surface with
850mb winds becoming southerly across Texas Panhandle starting
around 06z tonight. Good moisture advection will begin during the
overnight hours with +12C and higher 850mb dewpoints reaching
Elkhart to Johnson by daybreak. Dewpoints at the surface will
really ramp up during the day tomorrow across much of the area,
especially western half of the forecast area. Lee trough
convergence will become better defined late afternoon tomorrow.
6km AGL winds out of the northwest 35-40 knots and surface winds
out of the south at around 15 knots will yield sufficient deep
layer shear for supercell storms along the trough axis. Forecast
hodographs show a good broad anticyclonic shape as well.
Supercell storm motions would likely be almost due south at around
10 knots. SPC SWODY2 upgraded much of western KS to a 2-SLGT from
the earlier outlook of 1-MRGL, and this definitely makes sense.
The question will be how long storms survive after sunset. There
shouldn`t be a tremendous amount of synoptic forcing for ascent,
but in late June northwest flow, you don`t need much to get at
least a small MCS going. Will carry some 30-40 POPs across the
western third of the forecast area through 06z, but this forecast
may be fine tuned as better signals appear regarding duration of
convection after sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Northwest flow pattern aloft will continue Wednesday and Thursday.
The surface pattern will be very similar on Wednesday, so the same
areas may see another round of late afternoon/evening storms
across west central Kansas. The NAM and GFS models suggest a minor
wave moving across the northwest flow which may lead to better
organization for late night MCS. This will have to be watched and
POPs may need to be increased in future updates. This minor wave
with jet streak moving across the far Northern Plains will yield a
minor cold front pushing into northern Kansas Thursday. We expect
a third evening in a row of thunderstorm activity across
western/southwestern KS with perhaps the focus just a bit farther
east, depending on how far south this front pushes. Out ahead of
said front, temperatures should be the warmest of the week with
widespread 99 to 102F temperatures, especially west of U283. The
forecast becomes more complicated Friday and Saturday. The first
front is shown to stall out with post-frontal upslope
southeasterly winds by the ECMWF Friday. This is in response to
the next system digging southeast from Washington and northern
Idaho into the Northern Rockies. The GFS shows an entirely
different solution, and it is largely discounted since it is
outlier as the Canadian shows a scenario similar to the ECMWF. The
very strong cold front advertised by the GFS late Friday looks too
early. As a result, one more hot day is now expected Saturday -- a
day which now is starting to look more interesting regarding more
organized severe weather ahead of the 2nd, much stronger cold
front. Hopefully in the next day or so, the weekend forecast will
become a bit more clear regarding front timing and any severe
weather risk.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through much of this TAF period at all
the terminals. Winds will increase from a southerly direction at
most locations with gusts to around 20 knots. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop across west central and far
southwest Kansas Tuesday afternoon. Garden City will be the most
likely area impacted and will carry VCTS there. Hays and Liberal
could also see storms in the vicinity depending on areal and
temporal extent but confidence is lower at these terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  96  70  98 /   0  10  20  10
GCK  64  99  69 102 /   0  30  30  20
EHA  64  97  67 101 /   0  20  30  20
LBL  64  97  69 101 /   0  10  20  10
HYS  63  94  70  98 /   0  20  40  20
P28  64  94  70  96 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Gerard



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