Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171816
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
116 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Short term confidence is low. In these weakly forced, late Summer convective
patterns, it is often difficult to get a sense of how the thunderstorms
will drift and evolve. Recently, the models have not been doing that
well, further decreasing confidence. With that said, it looks like
the most probable situation is that convection will develop across
the higher terrain of Colorado and then slowly drift towards western
Kansas. As a result, have the higher pops in the western zones and
lower values to the east. With such weak flow, it is difficult to imagine
that convection would intensely propagate across the state. For severe,
chances look low, although an isolated strong to severe storm with
wind and hail cannot be completely ruled out, particularly for far
southwest Kansas late tonight.

For tomorrow, if there is any convection, it would be across the far
southeast zones. Drier air moves in, so the bulk of the forecast district
will remain dry. With the drier forecast, temps will be able to rebound
a bit with widespread lower 90s forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

The weekend appears to be mainly dry, except an isolated storm. The
specifics of this are unknown at this time and the fb pops are good
for now. Highs will continue in the 90s with lows mainly in the 60s
to 70s.

The long term models show a continued dry and warm pattern prevailing
for much of the extended period. Storm coverage looks fairly isolated.
The fb pops and temps grids look like a good solution at this time,
given the always present uncertainty that exists in weakly forced
convective regimes across southwest Kansas during late Summer and in
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

VFR expected through TAF pd. Have higher confidence of TSRA impacting
far SW Kansas later tonight. Will include VCTS/CB groups for KGCK/KLBL
as a result. A second area of convection may form to the north and
impact KHYS. Confidence on this area is lower but will include VCTS/CB.
Winds will be fairly weak NW bcmg S/SW 5-15 kt.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  66  94  65 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  88  63  92  64 /  30  20  10   0
EHA  88  62  92  63 /  30  30  10   0
LBL  91  64  94  65 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  90  64  92  63 /  10  20  10   0
P28  91  68  95  68 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden


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