Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221946
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
246 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Thick cirrus spreading across Kansas at midday in response to
divergence aloft. South winds will remain strong and gusty through
early evening, in response to 995 mb surface leeside low in
Nebraska. Some gusts near 35 mph, especially near Garden City,
where they have already occurred.

Weak closed low and associated vorticity maxima will arrive on
the KS/CO border by 7 pm. Lift ahead of this feature will interact
with what limited instability there is, to generate isolated
convection across SW KS through tonight. Kept pop grids
conservative, limited mainly to the isolated/slight chance
category with lift weak and moisture lackluster. Still, at least a
small chance of a shower/storm appears warranted in most zones
through tonight. South winds will remain elevated overnight, in
response to a strong LLJ and 850 mb winds to near 50 kts. With the
mixing and enhanced cloud cover with passing shortwave, low
temperatures will be warmer than normal by several degrees, with
upper 60s common Tuesday morning.

Tuesday...Hot and windy. Surface low deepens in NW Kansas through
the day, resulting in strong, gusty SW winds of 20-35 mph by
afternoon. With this downslope component, and models cranking
850 mb temperatures about 5C tomorrow, followed the warmest
guidance with max temperatures in the mid 90s. Models develop
moderate instability across the eastern zones Tuesday afternoon,
east of a dryline projected to bisect the CWA along a Wakeeney-
Dodge City-Liberal line by late afternoon. Best shear/instability
combination expected to be in NE KS and eastern Nebraska. For
SW KS, kept pops limited to mainly slight chance/isolated along
and east of the dryline, with forcing more limited and capping
increasing (700 mb temps near 14C by evening). Highest probability
of a strong to marginally severe storm will be across the NE zones
Tuesday afternoon, per marginal 5% wind/hail probabilities from
SPC.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Next cold front scheduled to slide through SW KS on Wednesday,
with winds becoming northerly through the day. Instability
expected to be sufficient to generate scattered showers and
thunderstorms along the sagging boundary, especially east where
the moisture supply will be greater. Although multicell storm
modes will prevail, CAPE will support some strong to severe
convection as per SPC Day 3 5% wind/hail probabilities. 12z NAM
suggests this potential hazard will be focused mainly SE of
Dodge City. Passing frontal boundary will create a healthy
temperature gradient Wednesday, with afternoon temperatures
ranging from the upper 70s in Hamilton county to the lower 90s in
Barber county.

Thursday...Much cooler. Another refreshing autumn preview, as
1024 mb Canadian high pressure builds into Nebraska. North winds
Thursday morning, with stratus, drizzle and low ceilings expected.
Kept pop grids in the scattered/chance category, with isentropic
lift shown by some models over the boundary. Followed guidance
with max temperatures reduced back to the mid 70s, but it may end
up cooler if stratus does not break or overrunning rain persists.

Friday through Sunday...Warming trend expected, as the cool air
retreats and the atmosphere warms progressively daily. Back to
near normal (upper 80s/near 90) by Sunday. 12z ECMWF tracks
shortwave trough from the Great Basin/northern Nevada Friday,
to near Salt Lake City Saturday, and the Nebraska panhandle on
Sunday. As this system approaches, SW flow over the lee trough
will keep moisture/instability available across SW KS through this
period. Slight chance/chance pops warranted each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Strong south winds will impact aviation this afternoon into the
early evening hours, in response to 995 mb surface low in NW
Nebraska. South winds of 20-30 kts will be routine through sunset,
with some gusts near 35 kts, especially at/near GCK. Around
00z Tue, NAM/HRRR models suggest isolated -TSRA may develop across
the western zones, perhaps into the central zones by 06z.
Convective coverage will be isolated, with little confidence of
impacts at the terminals, so opted to keep out of the 18z TAFs for
now. VCTS possible. GFS suggests isolated -TSRA near HYS during
the 09-12z Tue time frame. After 06z Tue, widespread LLWS
expected, in response to strong LLJ with 850 mb winds as high as
50 kts. Surface winds relax near sunrise, followed by strong S/SW
winds resuming quickly by 15z Tue.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  95  69  85 /  20  20  20  40
GCK  67  95  66  80 /  30  20  20  30
EHA  65  93  65  81 /  20  10  20  30
LBL  69  94  68  85 /  20  20  20  30
HYS  68  93  67  81 /  20  20  20  40
P28  69  93  72  91 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner


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