Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220801
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
301 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS A RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENT, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE MAIN PERIOD FOR RAIN WILL BE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE EXITING, WHICH IS
THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS TREND. RESIDUAL STRATUS WILL MAINTAIN
COOL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE BULK OF MODEL AND MOS DO
NOT EXCEED THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
CLOUDY AND BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY UPTICK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE SURFACE
RESPONSE FORM THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TODAYS RAIN. LOCALIZED FOG COULD DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. BOTH THE NAM AND
THE ECMWF INDICATE A SWATH OF CONVECTION FOCUSED ON THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA LIFTING NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NAM DOES INDICATE DECENT DEEP BULK SHEAR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WHICH IS REASONABLE WITH THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE
CAPE/SHEAR CONSIDERATIONS, ELEVATED HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
COULD OCCUR LATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY OR SATURDAY MORNING, BUT AT
THE VERY LEAST, CONVECTION IS A MUCH GREATER POSSIBILITY THAN IT WAS
THIS MORNING. POPS ARE MUCH BETTER LATER INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNER`S REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE EJECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BRING UP ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN
INCH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
WITH SMALL HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. A COLD FRONT
THEN SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
FROM SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND TOWARDS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 60S DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION FALLING. HOWEVER, IF THE CLOUDS BREAK OUT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS A FEW PLACES COULD REACH AROUND 70 DEGREES. HIGHS
IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE FIRST ROUND OF STRATIFORM RAIN IS ENTERING SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT
THIS TIME AND WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 6
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR
CATEGORY AS WELL OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES RAIN
COOLED. AFTER THAT, RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ENDING AT LEAST
TERMPORARILLY AT GCK AND DDC, AND EVENTUALLY AT HAYS, LEAVING MVFR
STRATUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO BE SLOWLY ERODED BY
THE STRONG LATE MAY INSOLATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  53  66  58 /  50  60  60  40
GCK  61  53  67  56 /  40  50  50  40
EHA  65  55  71  54 /  20  40  40  20
LBL  63  56  67  57 /  40  60  60  20
HYS  59  52  64  57 /  70  50  50  50
P28  58  55  65  61 /  60  60  80  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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