Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A delightful afternoon across SW KS, under a temporary shortwave
ridge, behind one departing cyclone and ahead of the next
approaching storm system. Light and variable winds presently will
gradually trend SE through sunset, as pressures begin to fall
along I-25 in Colorado.

Tonight...Widespread low stratus clouds, along with areas of
drizzle and fog, will engulf SW KS after midnight. Strong moisture
advection will commence around midnight, as energetic closed low
digs into NE Arizona by 7 am Tuesday. SE winds will become
elevated and gusty overnight, gusting 20-25 mph, and this is
expected to prevent widespread dense fog formation. Temperatures
tonight again well above late March normals, holding in the 40s,
with SE winds, thick clouds and increasing dewpoints retarding
radiational cooling.

Tuesday...Rain is on the way! Model guidance in excellent
agreement tracking closed low to central New Mexico by afternoon.
Ahead of this cyclone, a strong and moist warm conveyor belt is
expected, with widespread rain and embedded thunder blossoming
across West Texas, western Oklahoma, and western Kansas through
the day. All surface-based instability will remain south of SW KS,
with severe weather focusing on SW OK and W TX. Weak elevated
instability may accompany some of the rainbands as they arrive
from the south, and agree with SPC`s marginal risk for elevated
hail just clipping the S/SE zones Tuesday afternoon. Kept slight
mention of thunder restricted to areas along and south of US
Highway 50. 12z NAM in particular develops strong north-south
oriented mesoscale bands of moderate to heavy rain, affecting the
central and eastern counties. Rainfall amounts near one inch in
4-6 hours are likely if this banding comes to fruition. Trimmed
temperatures down several degrees with the expected clouds, rain
and limited diurnal temperature curve. This will be a wind blown
rain, with a sizable pressure gradient keeping easterly winds
gusting near 30 mph as the rain falls Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Attention the turns to Tuesday through Thursday. A large trof will approach
the region during this period. Considerable moisture advection is expected
with PWATs increasing to around 1". Keep in mind this is well above
the 90th percentile for March PWAT climo. The forecast values actually
above the max. The bottom line is there will be considerable moisture
to work with and a heavy rain event still appears likely. There will
be strong WAA induced precipitation ahead of the synoptic wave and
very strong isentropic lift in its wake. The EC is still cranking out
1-2" area wide by Thursday evening. Tuesday and Wednesday have temperature
bust potential as it probably will be cooler than what is currently
forecast with all the rain and cloud cover. Severe weather doesn`t
appear that likely as SW Kan will be on the cold side of the synoptic
wave. There could be thunder though, however, widespread stratiform
rain looks to be more likely. The forecast will dry out Thursday and
into Friday with 500-hPa shortwave ridging expected over the forecast
domain. Another synoptic system is still forecast by the EC for late
Saturday and into Sunday. This second storm will still bring precip
with it, however, lighter amounts are possible as PWATs are not forecast
as high as with the first dynamic system. The EC has been remarkably
consistent over the last several nights bringing in much needed beneficial
rains to SW Kan.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Broken stratus and stratocumulus will continue to erode east of
DDC and near HYS this afternoon. Several hours of good flying
weather expected at the airports through this evening, with VFR
expected to hold through about 06z Tuesday. High confidence that
flight categories will degrade to IFR/LIFR after 06z, as strong
moisture advection begins ahead of dynamic closed low in NE
Arizona. Stratus will envelope all of SW KS by 12z Tue, with areas
of reduced vis in BR/patchy fog as well. SE winds will become
gusty overnight (gusting 20-25 kts) and this is expected to
prevent dense fog formation. LIFR stratus cigs will be the primary
aviation impact. After 15z Tue, widespread -RA is expected, with
IFR vis as well. Only included light rain in the TAFs for now, but
rain will be moderate to heavy at times through Tuesday afternoon.


DDC  67  43  53  45 /   0  10  60  90
GCK  68  45  52  42 /   0  10 100  90
EHA  70  42  51  39 /   0  10  60  80
LBL  71  43  54  44 /   0  10  70  90
HYS  65  43  54  45 /   0  10 100  90
P28  67  44  60  51 /   0   0  20  90




LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.