Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 290526
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1226 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

At 00z Monday an upper low was located near the four corners
region and an upper level ridge axis extended from the Mid to
Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid Atlantic States. Between these
two systems a tropical southerly flow extended from south Texas
into the Central Plains. Several subtle upper level disturbances
were embedded in this tropical southerly flow. At the 850mb level
the winds were southeast across Oklahoma and Kansas with
temperatures at Dodge City, Oklahoma City, and Amarillo all
reporting 21C at 00z Monday. At the surface a trough of low
pressure was located over eastern Colorado with another surface
boundary appearing across northwest Oklahoma and south central
Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A nearly stationary upper level low pressure system was located over
the Four Corners Region Sunday afternoon and will slowly progress
to the east Sunday night. 12Z upper air sounding showed abundant
moisture in the mid levels that will support partly cloudy skies
through the night. The primary area of concern will be in the
western counties. Storms will likely initiate tonight along a
boundary in eastern Colorado and move east into Kansas. Moderate
850mb flow of 25-30kts will help maintain a cluster of storms.
Flooding will be a possible concern tonight across the western
counties as thunderstorms move over areas that received 2-3 inches
of rain Saturday night. Widespread severe weather is unlikely with
weak 500mb flow and weak 0-6km shear. Lows tonight will drop into
the low to mid 60s.

Moving into tomorrow, the upper level low will begin dissipating
over western New Mexico.  Any remaining thunderstorms from the night
before should dissipate by around mid morning leaving behind chances
for light stratiform precipitation.  Another chance for
precipitation will be possible tomorrow afternoon across southwest
Kansas mainly west of Highway 283. With PW values above 1.5 inches
and weak upper level forcing, heavy rain will be the largest threat.
Highs tomorrow will climb into the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A wet pattern will continue through Wednesday into Thursday with
chances for rain every day as weak upper level disturbances move
over the Central Plains.  Exact timing and location is uncertain,
but the best chances for heavy rain look to be Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a more robust upper level disturbance moves across
northern Kansas. With weak forcing and low instability the primary
risks will be gusty winds and heavy rain. Conditions will begin to
dry out this weekend as an upper level ridge builds over Kansas.
Highs will be a few degrees below normal through Friday in the mid
80s before warming into the low 90s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

A south to southeasterly wind at less than 10 knots can be
expected through Monday morning across western Kansas as a trough
of low pressure at the surface remains nearly stationary over
eastern Colorado. Some patchy fog can not be completely ruled out
around daybreak given the low to mid 60 degree surface dew points
and a light south to southeast flow. Models soundings indicating
low level moisture will be very shallow with the bulk of the
moisture in the model soundings being at or above the 700mb level.
Dense fog is not anticipated but possibly a brief period of 3-5sm
in fog could develop. Otherwise VFR conditions can be expected at
all three taf sites through the remainder of the night and early
Monday. There will also be a chance for some rain showers or even
a few thunderstorms today as subtle waves embedded in a tropical
southerly flow crosses western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  83  65  84 /  30  40  40  50
GCK  63  82  63  82 /  20  40  40  40
EHA  63  80  62  81 /  20  40  50  40
LBL  64  82  63  82 /  30  50  40  50
HYS  66  83  65  81 /  20  30  40  40
P28  68  87  68  86 /  60  30  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Burgert



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