048
FXUS63 KDDC 282251
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
551 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 90s with afternoon
  heat index of 100 to 102 possible east of highway 183.

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late Sunday and Sunday
  night as a cold front crosses southwest Kansas. Main hazards
  will be strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

- Cooler temperatures will start off the work week but a warming
  trend will return to southwest Kansas mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Earlier morning an upper level trough was located over Idaho,
with a westerly flow observed ahead of it across the Northern
and Central Rockies. East of the Rockies, a surface low pressure
trough was present and across the Northern Plains, a cold front
was situated over the Dakotas and Northern Wyoming.

Isolated thunderstorms possible tonight across west central and
south central Kansas. Thunderstorm development will be
monitored this evening along the surface trough of low pressure
that will extend from northeast Kansas into east central
Colorado. Any storms that manage to develop are expected to move
eastward and weaken during the early evening hours. There is a
low probability (20% or less) that isolated, weakening storms
may cross the Colorado border before fully dissipating between
6pm and 10pm. Another opportunity for low probability (15% or
less) for a few elevated thunderstorms will occur between 3am
and 9am Sunday morning across south central Kansas. In this area
850mb warm air advection/850mb-700mb moisture transport will
develop east of the warmer mid level temperatures (700mb
temperature gradient).

Heat Index of 100 to 102 possible on Sunday east of highway
183. These westerly downslope flow conditions, combined with the
warm 850mb and 700mb temperatures support the current NBM
forecast with afternoon highs expected to climb into at least
the mid 90s today. This warm air mass will persist across
western Kansas on Sunday, making Sunday almost a carbon copy of
today. Highs may end up being a few degrees warmer. In addition
to these unseasonably warm temperatures, there is a greater than
70% chance for dew points to exceed 65 degrees east of the
surface low pressure trough, which will move from Colorado into
western Kansas during the afternoon. Based on the latest short
term model consensus, it appears these higher dew points will
primarily remain east of Highway 183, suggesting that afternoon
heat index values around 100 can again be expected in that area.

These unseasonably warm temperatures on Sunday will occur ahead
of a cold front, which will move across southwest Kansas by
late day/early Sunday night. Early this afternoon this cold
front will progress under some warm mid level temperatures as it
approaches southwest Kansas. As a result, even with afternoon
heating and increasing mid level instability...what convection
that tries to develop along this boundary may stay isolated to
widely scattered until early evening. As the cold front moves
into southwest Kansas Sunday evening the convection is expected
to increase in coverage along this surface boundary. The main
hazard from the stronger storms early Sunday night currently
appears to be strong gusty winds across western Kansas given the
low level lapse rates, high cloud based and forecast downdraft
cape. Heavy rainfall will also require monitoring Sunday
evening, as forecast Precipitable Water values east of Highway
283 are expected to be near the 90th percentile.

Looking ahead to Next Week. Once the cold front passes Sunday
night, the rain will end from northwest to southeast. The latest
CAMs indicate 850mb temperature trends supporting afternoon
temperatures around 10 degrees cooler on Monday compared to
Sundays expected highs. Enjoy this break in the heat while you
can because this cooler air early next week will gradually give
way to a warming trend late week as an upper ridge moves
eastward across the Rockies and into the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.
Isolated thunderstorms have developed mainly north of GCK and we
could see isolated storms in the vicinity of GCK and LBL from
00-06Z however the probability of a thunderstorm affecting
either terminal will be less than 30%. During the afternoon on
Sunday a slow moving cold front will stall out along the I-70
corridor and will be the focus of storm development after 21Z
that could lead to some VCTS near HYS between 21Z-00Z. Any
thunderstorm either tonight or tomorrow could have downburst
winds over 40 kts.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Tatro