000
FXUS63 KDDC 241731
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface winds will shift from an easterly trajectory to a southerly
direction today. This will be in response to surface pressure falls
across the northern High Plains region. Models such as the NAM
indicate a diffuse dryline developing eastward in the afternoon with
dew points falling into the 50`s to a Dighton and Liberal line, or
perhaps even slightly farther east. With drier air in the western
sections, more efficient heating should occur behind the dryline
in turn supporting the warmer model solutions with temperatures
around 100 degrees. Higher moisture in central Kansas may limit
the maximum temperatures to the mid or even lower 90s this
afternoon. As a result the bias corrected NAM temperatures were
fused into this short term forecast. The NAMs warmer overnight lows
for tonight additionally were favored for the warmer lows across
much of southwest Kansas into Friday morning.

Convection appears unlikely this afternoon. A general lack of a
sharp dryline, and homogeneous southerly flow with impressively
warm air in the mid levels should inhibit deep moist convection.
The best chance for a storm would be isolated weakly forced
surface based storms that might approach extreme west central
Kansas in the evening from the higher terrain of Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

The first portion of the long term period (Friday and Saturday,
specifically) will be some of the hottest weather of the summer for
western Kansas. It appears we will finally see our first (and
second) 100 degree day(s) of the year Friday and Saturday as all
models are showing a very pronounced lower tropospheric thermal
ridge overspreading western Kansas with the +32C 850mb isotherm
spreading as far east as a Hays to Dodge City line both days. On
Friday, we will go with 102 to 104F along a corridor from Hugoton to
Garden City to Hays with 100 to 101 elsewhere. The above average
evapotranspiration we have been seeing this summer, though, will
still be the wild card for some areas, including Dodge City. We have
been routinely over-forecasting high temperatures by a few degrees
on these hot days as most MOS guidance and gridded 2-meter
temperature fields have not done well at all in capturing the still
significant evapotranspiration going on. If we were mired in a dry
spell like the summers of 2011 and 2012, this same synoptic setting
and 850mb temperature forecasts would support widespread surface
temperatures of 105 to 109F for afternoon highs. The heat axis will
shift a bit south on Saturday as a weak front approaches from the
north. We will go with 102-103F along the Oklahoma border with
around 100F everywhere else. We will carry some slight chance POPs
along and just south of the boundary.

From Sunday into early/mid next week, we will see a relief from the
heat as another longwave trough develops across eastern North
America. On Sunday, the effective synoptic frontal zone will likely
extend from the southern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma with
post-frontal upslope across eastern Colorado. Best POPs will be out
west where any Colorado convection could come across the border
during the evening. A weakly frontogenetic axis amidst moist
800-700mb layer may support some nocturnal convection as well, which
is what the GFS and ECMWF would seem to suggest. Highs in the 80s
look good Monday and Tuesday with northwest flow aloft.  Tuesday and
Tuesday Night look like the best time frame for most widespread and
organized convection as a shortwave trough may round the Desert
Southwest upper high, enhancing frontogenesis in the 850-700mb
layer. It could be fairly cool Wednesday (and Thursday?) of next
week in the wake of this shortwave passage, reinforcing the eastern
North America longwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A surface trough will remain across western Kansas through the
period with drier air at lower levels. Winds will be from the south
at 15 kts, then gradually shifting to the southwest by 12z. VFR
conditions will prevail as low CIGS are not expected in this drier
airmass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  76 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  99  75 103  71 /  10   0  10  10
EHA  99  72 102  71 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 100  74 102  72 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  97  78 104  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  95  75 103  75 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch