000
FXUS63 KDDC 231111
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
611 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

...Updated for Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

An intense upper level trough was progressing into the
Intermountain West early this morning. The edge of the associated
mid level cold pool, along with marginal low level moisture, had
resulted in thunderstorms over eastern Utah. Ahead of this system
over the plains, lee troughing and southerly winds still resulted
in hot temperatures across the plains Thursday. Low level
moisture was marginal across most of the central and southern
plains; but very rich low level moisture was located across south
Texas where dewpoints were in the mid 70s and was beginning to
advect northward. The upper level trough will slowly progress
eastward to the western high plains by early Saturday. The
surge of rich low level moisture from south Texas is expected at
the same time as mid level cooling arrives ahead of the trough by
Friday night. This will lead to airmass destabilization despite
diurnal cooling as dewpoints surge into the mid to upper 60s as
far west as Dodge City.

The surface cold front associated with the aforementioned upper
level trough is expected to pass through western Kansas by early
Sunday. The southern part of the trough will separate from the
northern part and close off over Mexico. The northern part of the
trough is expected to continue eastward into the Great Lakes.
Surface high pressure will build in behind the cold front Sunday
and Monday. Upper level ridging is expected to develop across the
plains by early to mid next week along with a ridge of high
pressure at the surface.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening
along the Colorado border and then progress eastward into central
Kansas by early Saturday morning. Shear vectors are expected to be
parallel to the leading edge of mid level cooling so that
thunderstorms may quickly evolve into a line with possibly
damaging winds and marginally severe hail. Any storms that manage
to stay isolated would be capable of larger hail. Temperatures
will continue to be hot today, although not quite as hot as
previous days. We opted to go warmer than much of the model
guidance with highs in the lower 90s. Lows tonight will range from
the 50s in far western Kansas where some drying is expected by
morning, to the upper 60s in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Thunderstorms may linger into Saturday and Saturday night,
especially across south central Kansas. There is still some
uncertainty as to whether thunderstorms will redevelop back as far
west as Dodge City after the morning convection moves eastward.
Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday given the increase in
clouds and debris from thunderstorms. Sunday will be even cooler
in the wake of the cold front with mainly 70s for highs. Dry
weather can be expected early to mid next week as upper level
ridging develops over the central plains along with persistent
surface ridging. light winds, dry air and cool nights. Some
shower activity may return by late next week as the upper level
ridge breaks down.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected. South winds will increase to 18-30kt
after morning mixing and lee troughing deepens. Some thunderstorms
will move out of Colorado and into western Kansas to around the KGCK
area by 06-09Z, before falling apart.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  64  84  57 /  10  40  40  40
GCK  93  59  83  54 /  10  50  20  30
EHA  91  57  81  53 /  20  40  20  20
LBL  92  62  83  56 /  10  30  30  40
HYS  92  65  82  57 /  10  40  40  40
P28  93  69  86  62 /   0  50  60  70

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse