Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290002
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
702 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TONIGHT:

ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY. THERE IS PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY WITH 3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. BULK SHEAR IS WEAKER TODAY
AND IS VERY MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS (30 KT). UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
WEAKER TOO FOR STORM TOP VENTILATION. LIKE THE NSSL WRF SOLUTION AS
FAR AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS CONCERNED. RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE TRENDED
TO A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS DESCRIBED BY THE WRF. THE NET RESULT IS CONVECTION
WILL FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THINK UPSCALE GROWTH
IN TO A LINE IS LIKELY DOWNSTREAM. TORNADO POTENTIAL LOOKS LESS LIKELY
TODAY AS SUPERCELLS LOOK LESS LIKELY. I SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AS
PWATS REMAIN VERY HIGH. THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED
LINE SHOULD LIMIT SOME TRAINING OF STORMS AS THE LINE HEADS EAST. STILL,
ANOTHER 1 TO 2" OF RAIN LOOK GOOD FOR SOME SPOTS. FARTHER EAST, THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE LESS RAINFALL AS THE LINE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN
LATE TONIGHT. WET MICROBURSTS OF 60 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
LINE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THERE NOW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT, BUT
THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY
AS SHEAR IS WEAK AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE WEAK. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH NEAR 70,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY, ALONG WITH
LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY, WITH SOME MID 80S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEK AND
ALL OF THE RAIN WE HAVE HAD THIS SPRING WILL DISCOURAGE
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING INTO THE 90S DUE TO ENHANCED
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND PERSIST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WITH
THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ONLY ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND SOME OF THESE COULD VENTURE INTO
FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, ALONG WITH A SHARPER LEE TROUGH AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN ALL THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SO THAT SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE FAR TO THE NORTH,
TORNADIC ACTIVITY AND GIANT HAIL ARE NOT LIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK
AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IF THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK, THEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S. GIVEN THE LEE TROUGHING AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, LOWS WILL BE WARM
IN THE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z AND 13Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  79  54  70 /  70  40  40  10
GCK  57  78  53  69 /  70  40  40  10
EHA  55  77  53  70 /  50  40  50  20
LBL  58  78  55  71 /  60  40  40  20
HYS  59  78  53  69 /  50  40  40  10
P28  63  80  58  71 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH


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