Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 121742
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1142 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The forecast challenge in the short term continues to be the
immediate cooling trend and more cloudy conditions that are likely
by later in the day, followed by a northern plains wave later
tonight. Weak westerly winds in the far west will help maintain
warmer temperatures again today in the 50s, while incoming stratus
may have the potential to keep temperatures just above freezing in
central Kansas (Hays-Rush Center).

Increasingly upslope surface flow supporting freezing fog
or even patchy to areas of freezing drizzle mainly in the northwest
far sections after midnight. The precipitation (QPF) signal in the
NAM is mainly only focused across northwest/west central Kansas and
the cross sections indicate a dry layer just above the thicker
stratus.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The significant temperature gradient continues into the weekend as a
cold airmass will still be influencing the central Kansas counties.
Sunday will be the day westerly flow returns, warming highs back
into the 50s across the entire area, and setting off the beginning
of another waring trend that will last through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR conditions look to improve to VFR this afternoon across the
HYS terminal with a brief period of of low clouds possible above the
DDC terminal over the next hour or two. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions at the DDC terminal. VFR conditions are expected
across the GCK terminal throughout the afternoon into the evening.
Low clouds look to reform across the HYS terminal after sunset and
persist through late morning tomorrow. There could be a brief
period of low clouds move into the DDC and GCK terminals towards
sunrise tomorrow but have left the mention of this out of the TAFs
at this time. Winds will start out from the northeast this
afternoon slowly backing to the southeast by midnight tonight.
Wind speeds should remain below 12 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  21  45  30 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  52  23  51  30 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  60  30  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  27  56  32 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  38  19  37  27 /   0  10  10   0
P28  47  21  42  32 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...Hovorka_42


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