000
FXUS63 KDDC 072353 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
553 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2013

...Updated for Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a
southwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough of low pressure is swinging
southeast out of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin Region.
Near the surface, a large area of high pressure extends from the
Dakotas southward into much of Kansas. Extremely dry air has settled
across the area with surface dewpoints just below 0F across central
and much of southwest Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Short range models indicate the upper level trough across the
Intermountain West turning more eastward into the northern and
central Rockies tonight setting up the possibility for light snow
development across central and portions of western Kansas into
Sunday. As the upper level shortwave approaches, the prevailing
southeasterly flow near the surface will begin to draw moisture
up into the region with dewpoints climbing well above 0F,
potentially nearing 10F across south central Kansas. While,
moisture slowly increases overnight, surface low pressure is
projected to move quickly eastward across the Colorado Rockies
into eastern Colorado by mid day Sunday. This will set up increased
low level forcing across central Kansas as the surface high in the
Northern Plains is slow to move into the Great Lakes Region.
Additionally, upper level support will be more favorable as a
strong +110kt jet lifts northeast across central and southwest
Kansas through the period. However, NAM/GFS model soundings show
low PW values of well under half an inch with profiles slow to
saturate, potentially resulting in limited snow accumulations.
The best chance for accumulating snow looks to be across central
Kansas near the I-70 corridor where lift/moisture looks to be the
most favorable. An inch or so may be possible here, otherwise,
accumulations are expected to be generally less than an inch.

Temperatures will be somewhat warmer from this morning going into
early Sunday morning as slightly warmer air advects northward into
western Kansas while surface dewpoints climb above 0F. Expect
lows just below 10F across west central Kansas to the lower
teens(F) across south central Kansas. Warmer temperatures can be
expected Sunday as the low level southerly flow continues to draw
warmer air northward into southwest Kansas. However, increased
cloud cover and lingering snow pack will hinder temperatures from
climbing too much. Look for highs only up into the 20s(F) with a
few 30s(F) possible close to the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

The amplified upper level flow pattern over North America on Monday
will dampen out with time and become nearly zonal by late in the
week. The cold airmass over western Kansas will get a reinforcing
shot late Sunday and Sunday night behind a shortwave trough that
will be exiting the central High Plains. The next shortwave will be
dropping south through the Rockies Sunday night before ejecting
eastward through the southern Plains on Monday and Monday night. The
GFS and ECMWF develop a little light snow with this shortwave but
mainly keep it south of the Oklahoma border Monday night. This
system could produce a few flurries in the Coldwater and Medicine
Lodge areas but given the low probability for measurable
precipitation, will leave the forecast dry for now.

Another fast moving shortwave trough will drop out of Canada into
the northern Plains and Midwest on Wednesday. This will send a weak
shot of cooler air into western Kansas so Wednesday`s high
temperatures will be fairly similar to Tuesday. A more significant
warmup, at least closer to normal temperatures, will occur on
Thursday and Friday as westerly flow with shortwave ridging
develops over the central Plains.

By the weekend the models show another wave moving out of the
Rockies and into the Plains. This will push another cold front south
across western Kansas. Chances for precipitation look fairly low
with this wave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

A weak upper level disturbance in southwest flow aloft will move
across western Kansas tonight. Some light snow may re-develop
after midnight with some weak lift associated with the upper
disturbance. Little if any accumulations are expected. Areas of
IFR cigs are also expected after midnight as southeasterly upslope
winds continue to draw some moisture into the area. IFR cigs then
may break to MFVR/VFR in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  22   6  19 /  20  10  10  10
GCK   9  20   4  19 /  20  10   0  10
EHA  10  33   6  18 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  10  30   6  19 /  10  10  10  10
HYS   8  20   5  19 /  60  30  10  10
P28  12  25  11  22 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Kruse