Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221802

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
102 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Thunderstorm chances continue tonight as short range models indicate
a southwest flow aloft becoming more difluent across the Western
High Plains during the period. Although the intensity of the flow
aloft will remain fairly weak, favorable factors in the lower
levels will develop as significant moisture return pushes surface
dewpoints well up into the mid and upper 60s(F) across central and
much of southwest Kansas ahead of a sharpening dryline near and
along the Colorado border. This will set the stage for a substantial
increase in instability late this afternoon as an eroding stratus
deck gives way to increased heating in the lower/mid levels and
subsequent steepening lapse rates. NAM and GFS model soundings
show SBCAPE values well in excess of 2500 J/KG toward early this
evening as capping weakens across southwest Kansas. As a result,
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
dryline this evening. Although vertical shear profiles are less
than favorable, enough 0-6km shear exists to support strong to
severe thunderstorms. Considering the dynamic set up aloft, any
storms that develop are expected to drift slowly east-northeast
across west central and southwest Kansas this evening and
potentially spreading into central and south central Kansas
through early Monday morning.

Fairly mild temperatures are likely tonight considering a
prevailing south to southeasterly flow combined with surface
dewpoints remaining in the lower to mid 60s(F). Lows in the mid to
upper 60s(F) can be expected across south central and portions of
southwest Kansas with a few upper 50s(F) possible in west central
Kansas as a weak pacific cold front begins to push into western
Kansas early Monday morning. The southerly flow across central
Kansas will persist Monday as the aforementioned frontal boundary
stalls out across western Kansas, resulting in little change to
the general air mass across the region. Highs are expected to
reach into the 80s(F) Monday afternoon. The warmer high
temperatures are expected to continue through mid week as the
stalled frontal boundary is projected to lift back to the north,
leaving a southerly flow in place across the high plains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Severe weather chances exist for our area for the next several days
as the pattern of relatively moderate instability, and weak upper
forcing remains stagnant. Storms will typically develop along the
dryline diurnally and probably be followed by yet another round
of stratus development for the overnight in this cycle. Monday
the pacific front look to have enough influence to favor the far
eastern counties for severe storms vs. the far west. The synoptic
pattern appears persistent overall leaving out the smaller scale
details. A shortwave moving through Friday will have little impact
on the overall synoptic pattern heading into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

MVFR cigs will give way to VFR conditions in the vicinity of all TAF
sites late this afternoon as a low stratus deck slowly lifts and
scatters out. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening,
potentially affecting all TAF sites with brief MVFR/IFR conditions.
Otherwise, high relative humidity combined with a south to
southeasterly upslope flow will create conditions conducive to
stratus redevelopment later tonight. IFR cigs will be possible at
all TAF sites generally after 06Z.


DDC  80  63  84  60 /  20  40  20  30
GCK  83  60  84  55 /  30  40  10  10
EHA  83  57  85  52 /  30  30  10  10
LBL  82  62  87  56 /  20  40  20  10
HYS  82  62  81  61 /  20  40  20  30
P28  81  65  82  65 /  20  30  30  40


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.