Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190517
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1117 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Friday and Friday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

A thick cirrus canopy continues to overspread the plains tonight.
Otherwise, the dry and quiet weather continues. Between the cirrus
and the atmosphere continuing to warm at 850 mb, temperatures will
be much milder Friday morning compared to recent days. Most
locales will easily hold in the 20s.

Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures will be enjoyed on
Friday, with maximum readings averaging 20-25 degrees above
normal. 850 mb temperatures in the +17C range will support
widespread 60s, with some lower 70s sprinkled across the SW zones.
As warm as this is, the record highs (in the 70s) appear mostly
safe. Cirrus will gradually thin with time, as flow aloft becomes
more zonal, encouraging the mild afternoon temperatures. Afternoon
SW winds will average 10-20 mph, then weaken and become southerly
near sunset, ahead of a 1000 mb leeside surface low in SE
Colorado. A mild airmass continues tonight, keeping morning lows
Saturday morning above normal, mainly in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

The NAM maintains a dry boundary layer with no low level clouds,
through much of the period, until the next synoptic storm develops
over the region on Sunday. Saturday appears similar with highs in
the 50s across central Kansas to the low 70s in the extreme
southwest counties. As for the impending well advertised system
arriving Sunday, the models have thrown no surprises in recent runs,
still maintaining southwest Kansas in the warm sector for much of
the day with a changeover to snow by late day with the potential for
accumulations of an inch or two in the north. All of the models,
including the late frames of the NAM have placed a heavy snow band
across northwest Kansas, extending north-northeast across Nebraska.
Have seen enough consistency to increase precipitation probabilities
with going into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

VFR will continue with variable amounts of cirrus. Light
SW winds will again prevail, becoming modestly gusty during the
peak heating afternoon hours. Winds will diminish and back more
southerly around 00z Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  66  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  68  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  70  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  23  67  28  68 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  24  63  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
P28  25  61  30  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner



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