Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 222040
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT
QUICKLY SHEARED OUT INTO NEBRASKA. IN ITS WAKE, A COOL AND MOIST
AIRMASS CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST, THOUGH,
APPROACHING NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS FOSTERING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. STRATUS HAD CLEARED OUT
OF MUCH OF THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS WITH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN
VICINITY OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE, BUT
WEAKEN THEM AS THEY APPROACH THE STATE LINE LATER THIS EVENING IN
THE STABLE AIRMASS.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT) THOUGH, ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL FORM
ALONG THE WEST TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER REGION AT THE NOSE OF THE
NEXT INCOMING JET. BOTH WRF MODELS (ARW AND NMMB CORES) ARE SIMILAR
IN TRACKING THESE STORMS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING
THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AS A RESULT
TO 90+ PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE REDUCED IF THE LATEST WRF-ARW
MODEL PANS OUT, WHICH SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY-MIDDAY CONVECTION. COOL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NO SURFACE-BASED CAPE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA IN NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE THE RICHER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHORTWAVES TREKKING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SLIDES NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, THEN TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS WHERE THE MOON LOOKS TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK, HOWEVER, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED TOWARDS
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN
KANSAS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE
SKIES LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO MORE OF
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN AROUND 80
DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS LOOK TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL, MOIST UPSLOPE PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE 500 TO 1000 FOOT
RANGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VERY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. POOR
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF SATURDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  66  59  77 /  60  70  20  30
GCK  53  67  56  78 /  50  50  20  20
EHA  55  71  53  78 /  70  50  10  20
LBL  56  67  57  78 /  70  70  10  20
HYS  52  64  58  77 /  50  60  40  30
P28  55  65  61  76 /  70  90  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.