000
FXUS63 KDDC 060725
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
125 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

High relative humidity, very light winds, and residual moisture from
recent snow melt will create conditions favorable for fog
development across central and portions of southwest Kansas through
sunrise this morning. Visibilities could be reduced to less than a
half mile in some locations. Because temperatures remain below
freezing this morning, very light ice deposition may occur as well.
Any fog will likely dissipate by mid to late morning as
temperatures begin to climb through mid day.

Short range models indicate weak upper level ridging moving eastward
out of the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains today.
This will likely result in dry conditions persisting across western
Kansas through Thursday night, particularly with a weaker flow aloft
and a lack of instability present. Warmer temperatures are likely
today as lee side troughing strengthens enhancing warm air advection
within a southerly flow across western Kansas. The NAM/GFS show H85
temperatures up near 10C across central Kansas to near 15C along the
Colorado border. Along with clearing skies by this afternoon, look
for highs up into the 50s(F) across central Kansas to the 60s(F) in
southwest Kansas. For tonight, expect lows only down into the 30s(F)
in central Kansas with lower to mid 40s(F) possible in extreme
southwest Kansas as increasing moisture bumps surface dewpoints
up.

LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Thursday Night:

For Thursday evening, lee-side troughing will continue ahead of
the next fropa. Southerly winds are expected for the overnight
hours, which will keep minimums up and in the 30sF. The warmest is
expected across far southwest Kansas near Elkhart where the
strongest downslope component to the wind vector is expected.

Friday/Friday night:

The forecast becomes a bit more interesting in the wake of the
fropa Friday night and into Saturday. A broad upper level trof
will move across the region through the evening. Cold air
advection will begin by late evening. Top down/warm layer aloft
suggest that the event will start out as rain and then transition
to all snow by Saturday morning. ECMWF/GEM/GEFS are coming in lower
with snowfall amounts than previous runs. Probably attributed to
the broad/progressive nature of the trof and the lack of richer
boundary layer moisture. Still, cannot rule out a few inches or
perhaps a borderline advisory event. Highs will be in the 50s and
lows mainly in the 20s.

Saturday and beyond:

The main synoptic wave will move east with a quasi-zonal flow
becoming established by Monday. The net result is moderating
temperatures and weak lee troughing. As nice warm up is possible
next Monday in the warm sector, followed by cooling with another
fropa.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Increasing relative humidity, very light winds, and residual
moisture from recent melting snow will lead to some areas of fog
development through daybreak Thursday. MVFR vsbys are likely in
the vicinity of all TAF sites with IFR vsbys possible toward
sunrise. Additionally, low level stratus across south central
Kansas is expected to move north-northwest overnight, potentially
affecting all TAF sites and resulting in IFR cigs. As for winds, a
developing lee side trough of low pressure across eastern Colorado
will strengthen through Thursday afternoon. As a result, light
southerly winds of 5 to 10kt overnight will increase up to around
12 to 20kt through mid to late Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  35  52  27 /   0   0  30  40
GCK  63  37  51  27 /   0   0  40  40
EHA  68  42  56  30 /   0   0  40  50
LBL  65  40  56  29 /   0   0  30  40
HYS  58  33  49  26 /   0   0  30  40
P28  55  33  56  30 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson