000
FXUS63 KDDC 251713
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1113 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD MOVED
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WERE ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE KDDC VWP WAS SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR
WIND PROGS FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR. THESE MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF 50-60 KNOT WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS REPORTS
FROM AREA AWOS`S. THE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO MIX OUT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COOLER DAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN SATURDAY BY SOME 4-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 AT HAYS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FROM
DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HELD UP IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD AS DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 22-30 KT WITH DECREASE NNW 8-12 KT BY 00Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WNW/NW AGAIN 10-20 KT BY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN