000
FXUS63 KDDC 181740 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Stratus in the 2000 to 3000 ft range will continue to spread
northward across the area through around 10 UTC. Clearing should be
most prevalent in the western counties and the best chance for
stratus lingering longer through the morning hours exists in the
central Kansas counties and cities line Saint John to Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge as indicated by the SREF and mesoscale models. Fog
may locally & produce visibilities under a mile as light winds and
relatively low dew point depressions allow condensation on cloud
condensation nuclei. Beyond this morning, the dry air indicated on
the 00 UTC sounding coupled with a moderate pressure gradient will
promote surface mixing and breezy southerly winds between 15 and 18
UTC Friday. Winds will diminish after 01 UTC but remain well mixed
from a southerly direction, leading to mild overnight temperatures
mainly in the 50s and upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At the beginning of the period, an upper level ridge will be exiting
the central Plains while an upper level trough, initially over the
Desert Southwest, approaches the central and southern Plains. A
strong upper wave will be tracking east along the U.S./Canadian
border. As this northern wave moves out, it will push a cold front
down into west central and northwest Kansas Saturday afternoon. Low
level moist advection will be occurring ahead of the front which
will result in some destabilization during the day. Model soundings
indicate some mid level capping in place across much of southwest
and central Kansas so think that initially the best chances for
convection will be along the front. Have trimmed pops back across
southwest and south central Kansas during much of the day Saturday
with increasing pops over west central into central Kansas as the
afternoon progresses. Will continue to show increasing pops Saturday
night. Pops will be increasing across much of the area on Sunday
into Sunday evening as the main upper wave moves out. The
precipitation chances will be diminishing Sunday night as the wave
moves past. Will keep a slight chance for showers going Monday
morning over south central Kansas as the wave moves out of that
area.

Have added a slight chance for thunderstorms to areas along and
north of Highways 50 and 156 on Tuesday night as some mid level warm
advection could produce some elevated showers/thunderstorms.

The models continue to show another strong wave approaching the
central Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is coming into a little better
agreement with the ECMWF with the timing of this wave although it
remains a little more positively tilted. The models show a dryline
developing across western Kansas during the day which could be the
focus for some late afternoon thunderstorms.

Behind the dryline, deep mixing of southwesterly flow aloft could
produce dry windy conditions at the surface leading to potential red
flag conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A fairly strong surface pressure gradient will remain in place
into Saturday with south southeast winds of 15-28kt. After
midnight a low level jet of around 50kt develops. High level
cirrostratus will increase late tonight into Saturday with VFR
conditions prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  50  79  55 /   0   0  10  40
GCK  74  51  79  53 /   0   0  20  30
EHA  76  52  79  50 /   0   0  30  40
LBL  76  51  79  52 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  73  49  80  55 /   0   0  20  50
P28  72  50  79  56 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Kruse