000
FXUS63 KDDC 190854
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
354 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Elevated showers were ongoing across northern KS early this morning,
associates with a weak mid level warm advection in the base of the
upper trough/nose of the westerly jet axis. Most of this activity
should remain to the north as we head toward 12 UTC, however will be
monitored for update to pops/wx in the next few hours.  Models are
slightly warmer this morning than MOS, and current trend would seem
to support the models low 60s for MinT`s a little better. Latest
NAM/WRF is a bit warmer in the west for this afternoon`s high,
indicating low 90s possible for Garden/Liberal/Elkhart areas.

Overnight we will see a return of more robust low level moisture,
850 mb dew points and surface values into the low-mid 60s once again
all the way west into eastern CO. The higher theta-e airmass should
help hold temperatures up a few more degrees as well, supportive of
the NAM/WRF`s upper 60s low temperatures by early Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

By Tuesday, the surface winds become more southwesterly downsloping
and moderate. Convective chances seem to increase as well.
Instability should be returning 3,000-4000 j/kg cape values. Pattern
suggests the potential convection late afternoon and evening may be
generally diurnally driven with little forcing/little propagation,
and focused along the best convergence axis in the far west.  Both
the GFS and ECMWF suggest a better chances  for more widespread
convection by late Wednesday/Wednesday evening, with better forcing
from a possible weak a mid level shortwave and better storm
propagation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Elevated showers moving through northern KS may reach the vicinity
of HYS at time this morning, however the impacts should be
negligible, with VFR ceilings through this TAF period and light
and variable surface winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  63  94  70 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  92  63  96  70 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  93  65  97  69 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  92  64  96  70 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  86  62  93  71 /   0   0  10  20
P28  87  63  93  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell