Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280710
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
210 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN KANSAS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN THE
EAST. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER WESTERN KANSAS LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY TODAY LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LEE TROUGHING WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY THEN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THEN TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MID LEVELS BECOME SATURATED BEHIND THIS FRONT LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE
MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS
TODAY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED CONSISTS OF A MEAN RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN REGION WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS REGION THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT
LITTLE IF ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, OTHER THAN
ISOLATED CHANCES THAT MIGHT OCCUR ALONG ENHANCED MOISTURE POOLED
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN ADVANCE. THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODELS SEEMED TO PERFORMED BEST WITH RESPECT TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED AGAIN IN THE DAYS 3
AND 4 TIMEFRAME.

BY MIDWEEK, THE MODELS BEGIN TO ADJUST THE UPPER WESTERLY
PATTERN...ALLOWING MORE JET ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INITIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ALLOW A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO MEANDER SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANSAS EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD  PROVIDE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION. THE JET DYNAMICS BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR AS WELL FOR
ANY HIGH TERRAIN DAYTIME HEATING SURFACE BASED STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED WITH RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE LIFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT THE FORECAST HAS INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS WELL MODERATING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS  THE LOWER 90S/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE
MORNING AND THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CLOUDS
AOA080 WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  64  93  67 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  96  63  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  96  64  92  65 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  95  65  94  66 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  96  62  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
P28  98  66  95  68 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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