Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
652 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Fairly dry conditions are expected today as short range models indicate
a weak upper level ridge of high pressure shifting slowly eastward
across the Western High Plains into the Central Plains. A generally
weak westerly flow aloft and drier air in the lower/mid levels will
limit precip chances today. There is a slight chance for drizzle/light
rain late tonight as a southeasterly upslope flow begins to draw some
moisture back into the region while a southwesterly flow aloft begins
to intensify downstream of an approaching upper level trough. Enough
lift will be present to support the potential for light, but less than
appreciable precip across central and possibly portions of west central
and southwest Kansas.

A warming trend will initiate across west central and southwest Kansas
today as surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Great Lakes,
creating more of a southeasterly upslope flow across western Kansas
while lee side troughing begins to take hold across eastern Colorado.
This will set up a south to southeasterly flow across far western Kansas,
and in turn, draw slightly warmer into the region with H85 temperatures
well up into the teens(C). Cooler air will prevail across central Kansas.
Look for highs only up into the 50s(F) in central Kansas this afternoon
with the mid to upper 60s(F) possible in extreme southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Chances for precip pick up late Thursday as medium range models indicate
a strong upper level trough of low pressure pushing eastward across
the Four Corners Region early in the period creating an increasingly
difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile,
a south to southeasterly flow will persist across the high plains as
a developing surface low deepens lee of the Rockies. This will draw
moisture up into central and portions of southwest Kansas ahead of
a sharpening dryline attendant to the surface low in eastern Colorado.
Dynamic support aloft will become more favorable as the southwest flow
inensifies across the panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma into western Kansas
downstream of the approaching trough axis. Based on timing of the upper
level system and a strong afternoon cap, thunderstorms will be possible
along and ahead of the dryline more into Thursday evening as it begins
to edge slowly eastward. There is growing confidence for at least
marginally severe storms with a axis of instability building just east
of the dryline with MLCAPE values upward of 1,000 J/Kg, not to mention
short fuse model soundings showing 0-6km shear values of 50 to 60kt.
This is sufficient enough to support potential supercells with any
thunderstorm development once the erosion of the cap occurs. Drier
conditions remain likely over the weekend as the strong upper level
system pushes further eastward into the Ohio River Valley while upper
level ridging moves across the Intermountain West into the Western
High Plains.

A deepening surface low across eastern Colorado will create a strong
southerly flow across western Kansas enhancing warm air advection into
the area, pushing H85 temperatures into the upper teens(C) across central
Kansas to the lower 20s(C) closer to the Colorado border. Expect highs
generally up into the lower to mid 80s(F) Thursday afternoon. Cooler
temperatures return Friday as a cold front begins pushing through western
Kansas allowing for colder air to begin filtering southward into the
area. Based on the projected timing of the frontal passage, a widespread
range of highs are likely with temperatures ranging from only the 50s(F)
in west central Kansas to the 70s(F) in south central Kansas. More
seasonal temperatures can be expected to kick of the weekend Saturday
as a much cooler air mass settles in across the high plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017`s areal coverage/duration and then redevelopment
tonight with even lower the main weather impacts theme
for the terminals through Thursday morning. Based on the WRF NMM/ARW
and Rap13 models, the mostly MVFR stratus should cover the entire
area though around noon before rapid clearing in the west begins. It
is possible that clearing at GCK could occur sometime in the
afternoon, however DDC and HYS are more likely to remain in the
stratus layer through the entire day. Regardless of how far the
MVFR stratus retreats eastward today, the onset of longwave
radiational cooling tonight with much higher boundary layer
moisture will allow the onset of widespread LIFR CIGS by around


DDC  58  46  81  51 /   0  20  20  40
GCK  60  45  82  47 /   0  10  30  60
EHA  67  46  82  44 /   0  10  20  50
LBL  63  45  82  47 /   0  10  30  60
HYS  55  45  80  54 /  10  20  20  30
P28  57  49  81  55 /  10  20  20  40





LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.