Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161104
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
504 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Southwest Kansas will be in split flow between an upper level shortwave
ridge across the Northern Plains and a 500-hPa low pressure system
across Mexico. The net result is a weak pressure gradient across the
forecast district. A southwest to west wind is expected, however, around
10-15 mph. Warm 850-hPa temperatures and some mixing will allow temperatures
to peak into the lower to mid 70s today. Relative humidities could
fall as low at 10-15 percent, however, with the weak winds, do not
think RFW criteria will be met. Lows tonight will be fairly mild /
30s / with the light downslope flow continuing through the rest of
the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Spring-like temperatures will continue through the end of the business
week and into the weekend with very pleasant temperatures / 60s and
70s / continuing. Attention then turns to late Sunday night and into
Monday morning. An amplified and highly meridional synoptic trof is
expected to evolve from California and eventually moving out across
the Plains. WAA will increase significantly late Sunday evening. With
moderate dewpoints / 50s / advecting back into Kansas, think some thunderstorms
will be possible. 00Z EC does show some MUCAPE developing through the
overnight period as lapse rates steepen in association with a 500-hPa
cold pool moving in from the west. The highest pops are expected across
the southern zones, where WAA and moisture convergence/theta-e advection
is the strongest. Shear will be strong overnight / 40- 60 kt / , however,
instability will be fairly weak / a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE/ .
For the rest of the period, pleasant temperatures will continue with
highs around 70F and lows mainly in the 30s. Another synoptic trof
with cyclogenesis is possible outside the long term forecast domain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 503 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Westerly winds at around 10 knots early today will gradually back
to the south southwest between 21z Thursday and 00z Friday as a
trough of low pressure at the surface deepens over eastern
Colorado. NAM and RAP soundings indicating VFR conditions can be
expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  35  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  74  31  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  32  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  32  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  36  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  73  36  71  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert


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