Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260906
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND EXTEND IT INTO
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THIS SHORT
TERM PERIOD. BY LATER TONIGHT, THE NAM SUPPORTS NEAR 20:1 SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS AN INITIAL WEAK
WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, OVER THE INCREASINGLY COLD AIR DOME, A ZONE OF
WEAK SURFACE UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE PANHANDLES. EVEN THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACHES FOR QPF EASILY PRODUCE AN INCH AND HALF TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LIKE STANTON, MORTON AND
STEVENS. HOWEVER MODELS LIKE THE NAM ARE EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL. POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS
FROM SNOW COVERED ROADS APPEAR HIGH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST FLOW UNDER 15 KNOTS. COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS A BROAD AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, AFTER PROBABLY NOT EXCEEDING THE LOW 20S ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN STATES
INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH/LOW CARVING OUT OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DEVELOPING WESTERN STATES UPPER
TROUGH...ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD YIELD AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES. THIS ROUND COULD YIELD 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
850-700 LAYER FLOW INCREASES RAMPING UP ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY
MODERATE ACCUMULATING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT. 850
TEMPERATURES AND TOP DOWN APPROACH VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST A
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAINLY SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WOULD ANTICIPATE A
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE POSSIBILITY DURING THE WEEKEND...AS TRAVEL
COULD BE IMPACTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIGS INTO THE
BACKSIDE KEEPING THE TROUGH INTACT. THIS WILL SUPPORT COLDER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH WITH
CONTINUED...AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CEILINGS IN ADDITION TO WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THE MAIN TAF WEATHER
IMPACTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS IN THE POST FRONTAL
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN  GUSTY TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS UNTIL
THE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
STRATUS OF 1500 TO 2000 FEET WILL IMPACT ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  23   5  22  13 /  10  20  30  70
GCK  23   5  21  11 /  10  30  40  50
EHA  24   8  20  12 /  30  50  50  50
LBL  23   6  20  13 /  20  40  40  50
HYS  22   4  24  14 /  10  10  10  60
P28  23   5  24  16 /  10  10  20  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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