Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232024
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
324 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

Main focus if interest in the short term will be convective
initiation and what impacts it may have over our area this
evening. The consensus of the convective allowing models
(4kmNAM/WRF/ARW/HRRR) have shown and combo of eastward moving
mountain convection as well as a line of initiation across the
GLD/DDC/PUB cwa intersection around 00 to 03 UTC. The
environmental shear is strong with generally weak cape and
impressive low level lapse rates. In addition, with the LHP values
in excess of 4, this setup would support some marginally severe
wind gusts to around 55 mph and isolated hail possibly as large as
golfballs, but probably limited in area threat-wise. The short
lived severe threat would be impeded by weakening lapse rates in
the late evening, but sustained weaker storms moving through the
283 corridor and beyond after midnight. Meanwhile, the warm
temperatures of this afternoon are being limited by the increase
in cirrus over the area. Once the initial round of weak ascent
moves by our area, a push of drier air will invade on the NVA side
of the system. This will not trim temperatures much on Sunday,
but have a greater impact setting up cooler lows and highs by
Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

Another significant wave is shown by the GFS and ECMWF on Tuesday
into Wednesday and again at about  day 6-7 of the medium range.
The current thinking is that most of the Dodge City forecast area
will be centered in the dry slot of the system for this first
event, with a safe low too far north  for significant widespread
severe storms this farther  south. However this is only one model
run 4 days out, and widespread severe is still a possibility
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

Surface trough over eastern Colorado will provide southerly winds
through the TAF period, with a strong low level jet of around
40-50 knots developing this evening as the surface decouples. If a
few clusters of storms develop over eastern Colorado like a few
of the convective allowing models are showing, TSRA most likely of
the VFR variety could be experienced at GCK, but possibly farther
east as well towards 06 UTC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  81  49  76 /  40  10   0  10
GCK  54  80  46  76 /  50   0   0  10
EHA  52  80  45  78 /  40   0   0   0
LBL  56  83  48  80 /  40   0   0   0
HYS  58  80  48  74 /  50  10  10  10
P28  60  82  55  79 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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