Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 162315
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
615 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Removed all showers and thunderstorms from the grids and forecast
through this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to remain NE of
SW KS. No other changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Another round of strong to severe storms is possible across north
central Kansas late this afternoon into the early evening hours.
Most of the convection should remain out of our CWA with the
exception of along the I-70 corridor and western most counties.
Any storms that do develop will be capable of becoming severe with
large hail and damaging winds being the main concern. This
convection looks to fire along a frontal boundary bisecting the
state of Kansas. Also, these storms are not expected to continue
after sunset. Winds ahead of this front will generally be from the
south with northerly winds behind the front. Meanwhile, an upper
level shortwave will filter into the Northern Plains tonight into
tomorrow. This will in turn help push a cold front through the CWA
tomorrow. A few storms may develop along this boundary with the
best chance of precipitation across northern Kansas by 00Z Sunday.
As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the low 60s
along the KS/CO border to low 70s across south central Kansas.
Highs tomorrow will reach to around 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

The long term period looks to be fairly quiet as an upper level
ridge shifts northward into the southwest United States with long
wave trough over the northeastern United States. This will bring
northwest flow above western Kansas suppressing any widespread
storm development. One exception to this will be Saturday night
when lingering thunderstorms will be possible. The best chance of
measurable precipitation will be across central and south central
Kansas. Another exception will be during the late afternoon and
early evening hours on Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence is low on
these storms developing and will look at future model runs to see
if anything changes. As for temperatures, highs Sunday will
generally be in the low 80s. This will be short lived as we reach
into the 90s Monday and Tuesday with around 100 degrees possible
as we head into the mid part of next week. Lows are progged to dip
into the upper 50s Sunday night with 60s to lower 70s for the
remainder of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

VFR through tonight with broken cirrus. Light winds generally less
than 10 kts, variable in direction. Light northerly winds are
expected Saturday morning, veering to NEly and increasing to
10-20 kts Saturday afternoon. Despite the NE winds, quite hot
Saturday afternoon with most airports surpassing 100 degrees.
A strong cold front will arrive at HYS around 21z Sat, with
strong NE winds gusting 30-33 kts. Expect this unseasonably strong
cold front to sweep through all of SW KS by 03z Sunday with
strong NE winds. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to accompany
this frontal passage 21z Sat-06z Sun, with the highest coverage
from near HYS to near P28. Lesser confidence of convection near
DDC Saturday evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70 101  62  82 /  10  10  40   0
GCK  67 102  61  82 /  10  10  30   0
EHA  60 102  61  83 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  67 104  64  84 /  10   0  20   0
HYS  68  98  61  81 /  10  30  50  10
P28  72 103  66  84 /  10  10  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner



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