Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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126
FXUS63 KDDC 302337
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
637 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

For this evening, the main focus will likely be the axis of stronger
surface winds, as the trend for precipitation associated with the
mid level forcing that will still be present but perhaps not as
nearly well organized. The surface low will shift from south central
Kansas into the Missouri valley. That will shift the strongest
pressure gradient farther away from the highway 83 corridor, and
bring the axis of stronger surface winds over the eastern half of
our area for the late afternoon and evening hours. The magnitude
of the fgen forcing is significantly weaker and the qpf being
models by the 4 km NAM continues a significant trends downward.
This points periods of light snow with little accum and strong
winds still in the 30-39 mph range with 50 mph gust through the
early evening. Will need to extend pops though midnight or later
with appropriate top-down precip type weather which may be rain or
snow, but more likely snow.

Westerly surface winds will help warm up temps for Monday. Models
are accounting for the snow in the west by discounting highs around
20 degrees between the warmer, near 70F far southeast, and our
northwest counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

The area remains in an upper northwest flow pattern locally with a
generally more broad cyclonic pattern across the Northern Plains and
Great Lakes region through the middle of the week. The GFS and
ECMWF suggest a shortwave system digging south toward western
Kansas while a surface warm front develops somewhere near the
KS/OK line. As a result KS looks potentially wet/convectively
active around mid week and on the cool side of the boundary with
temperatures only in the 60s. The trend is for warmer and drier
continuing into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

IFR ceilings will gradually transition to MVR later in the
evening as the upper low which produced the winter storms moves
away from central Kansas. String surface gradient winds will also
weaken while the very strong 850 mb winds in excess of 50 knots,
causing low level wind shear across the terminals into the
overnight. In the meantime, light snow will continue though much
of this evening, but the forcing producing the snow bands has
weakened considerable, and as a result should not have as much of
an effect on visibility, Still 1-3 SM will be common into the
early morning where snow is still falling (mainly around HYS).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  59  38  65 /  50   0   0  10
GCK  28  50  34  59 /  20   0   0  10
EHA  30  56  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  31  63  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  33  57  39  63 /  70   0   0  10
P28  34  69  43  70 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-
045-064-078-087.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-043-044-061>063-074>077-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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