Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 302304
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Precip chances will persist tonight into Wednesday regardless of
an upper level ridge of high pressure moving out of the Northern
Rockies into the Northern Plains. Although the flow aloft will
remain fairly weak, ample instability combined with steepening
lapse rates may be sufficient enough to support isolated
thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening.
Considering the rich moist air mass, periods of heavy rainfall
will be possible with some areas seeing in excess of 1 to 2 inches
of rain, increasing the potential for localized flooding.
Otherwise, weak vertical shear profiles will hinder the potential
for severe.

Once again, the air mass will change very little during the period
while surface dewpoints remain primarily in the 60s(F). Lows are
expected back down into the 60s(F) across much of the area with the
lower 70s(F) possible in south central Kansas. Depending on wetter
ground and increased cloud cover, highs are only expected to
reach the 70s(F) in some locations Wednesday afternoon with the
lower to mid 80s(F) possible in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Precip chances will lessen Thursday as an upper level ridge of high
pressure shifts further east across the Northern Plains while surface
high pressure across the Upper Midwest helps usher drier air
southwestward into central and portions of western Kansas. A weak flow
aloft and a lack of instability will likely limit precip chances across
much of the area through the end of the week. However, thunderstorm
chances return to extreme southwest and west central Kansas Friday
evening as a southwesterly flow aloft develops across the Central
Rockies ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Diurnal
thunderstorms are expected to develop lee of the Rockies within a
southeasterly upslope flow Friday afternoon with storms potentially
drifting into extreme western Kansas Friday evening.

Temperatures will remain a little below normal Thursday as a slowly
developing southeasterly upslope flow is slow to erode the cooler
air mass across the high plains. The NAM/GFS show H85 temperatures
around the mid teens(C) across central Kansas to near 20C closer
to the Colorado border. Highs can be expected up into the lower
to mid 80s(F) Thursday afternoon. A general warming trend is then
likely through the weekend as the low level flow gradually becomes
more southerly, drawing warmer air northward into the high plains.
Highs may reach the lower 90s(F) by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Tricky forecast period because of high uncertainty in how scattered
showers and tstorms will evolve. Current radar has storms not impacting
the terminals right now. Will watch and amend as necessary. Not clear
how storms will evolve. There may be additional activity through the
overnight and have prob30 to cover basis. Otherwise, winds will be N
to NE 5-15 kt and cigs should primarily be VFR, except near heavy precip
for only localized periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  80  62  79 /  60  50  40  30
GCK  63  80  61  80 /  60  40  30  30
EHA  62  80  60  80 /  70  40  40  30
LBL  65  80  62  80 /  70  40  40  40
HYS  63  77  60  79 /  60  50  20  10
P28  68  83  65  82 /  60  60  40  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Sugden


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