Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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740
FXUS63 KDDC 051100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Quiescent weather is expected for Thursday. High pressure will shift
off to the east and light and variable winds will eventually become
light southerly. Skies should be clear. Highs will top out in the 80-85F
range with the warmest readings in the southwest zones, where mixing
is a bit stronger. Minimums heading into Friday will be in the lower
50s. Pops will remain at zero percent through the short term forecast
domain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Tranquil weather will continue for Friday as lee troughing prevails.
850-hPa temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s, which supports high
in the mid 80s. Have pops aob 10 percent, although is probably too liberal
given the complete lack of synoptic and mesoscale features to be the
impetus for the precipitation.

Otherwise, attention then turns to Saturday. An upper level trough will
begin to approach the region from the southwest. Shear will increase,
however, low level moisture is not that impressive for May standards.
There could be some mid to late morning light showers across the forecast
district in association with warm air advection Saturday. The main convective
show will be in the evening, however. Forecast bulk shear of 40 kt will
support supercells. The major fly in the ointment is the aforementioned
moisture, which will limit CAPE. The EC only shows 1200 J/kg. Forecast
soundings show an environment that is supportive of high based storms.
Any interesting weather in terms of tornadoes will be north of the forecast
area long the warm front. The LHP using GFS comes up with hail in the
tennis ball range. Feel this might be a bit overdone given the moist
bias in the GFS. Anyway, if a supercell does develop, 2" or greater
hail could be possible. Conditions will change Sunday as the dryline/front
moves east. Low level moisture will continue to increase as well. EC
shows sig tor just to the east of the forecast district. CAPE will be
much higher and shear will still support supercells. LHP from the GFS
comes up with giant hail potential in the southeast zones. For tornadoes,
forecast soundings do show a less than impressive low level shear/SRH
forecast. The more interesting area looks down in southwest Oklahoma
closer to the 250-hPa jet streak and where low level shear is better.
Anyway, the southeast and perhaps eastern zones could see severe thunderstorms
with significant to giant hail and possibly an isolated tornado. Otherwise,
for the rest of the forecast, we will see warm pleasant temperatures
and a chance of storms to return late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Weak low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies with
light southeasterly upslope winds. Only some high level cirrus is
forecast with VFR conditions into tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  54  86  59 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  81  52  88  57 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  84  50  85  55 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  84  52  87  57 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  80  54  87  60 /   0   0  10  10
P28  80  54  86  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Kruse



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