Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 120847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
247 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The forecast challenge in the short term continues to be the
immediate cooling trend and more cloudy conditions that are likely
by later in the day, followed by a northern plains wave later
tonight. Weak westerly winds in the far west will help maintain
warmer temperatures again today in the 50s, while incoming stratus
may have the potential to keep temperatures just above freezing in
central Kansas (Hays-Rush Center).

Increasingly upslope surface flow supporting freezing fog
or even patchy to areas of freezing drizzle mainly in the northwest
far sections after midnight. The precipitation (QPF) signal in the
NAM is mainly only focused across northwest/west central Kansas and
the cross sections indicate a dry layer just above the thicker
stratus.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The significant temperature gradient continues into the weekend as a
cold airmass will still be influencing the central Kansas counties.
Sunday will be the day westerly flow returns, warming highs back
into the 50s across the entire area, and setting off the beginning
of another waring trend that will last through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The prevailing condition through about 12 hours will remain VFR
across the local terminals before an increasing chance for IFR
category stratus becomes a potential impact. The 12km NAM indicates
upslope stratus developing extending far enough west Friday evening
to impact even DDC and GCK into the overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  21  45  30 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  50  23  51  30 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  59  30  63  37 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  55  27  56  32 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  38  19  37  27 /   0  10  10   0
P28  47  21  42  32 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR


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