Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280539
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1239 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A delightful afternoon across SW KS, under a temporary shortwave
ridge, behind one departing cyclone and ahead of the next
approaching storm system. Light and variable winds presently will
gradually trend SE through sunset, as pressures begin to fall
along I-25 in Colorado.

Tonight...Widespread low stratus clouds, along with areas of
drizzle and fog, will engulf SW KS after midnight. Strong moisture
advection will commence around midnight, as energetic closed low
digs into NE Arizona by 7 am Tuesday. SE winds will become
elevated and gusty overnight, gusting 20-25 mph, and this is
expected to prevent widespread dense fog formation. Temperatures
tonight again well above late March normals, holding in the 40s,
with SE winds, thick clouds and increasing dewpoints retarding
radiational cooling.

Tuesday...Rain is on the way! Model guidance in excellent
agreement tracking closed low to central New Mexico by afternoon.
Ahead of this cyclone, a strong and moist warm conveyor belt is
expected, with widespread rain and embedded thunder blossoming
across West Texas, western Oklahoma, and western Kansas through
the day. All surface-based instability will remain south of SW KS,
with severe weather focusing on SW OK and W TX. Weak elevated
instability may accompany some of the rain bands as they arrive
from the south, and agree with SPC`s marginal risk for elevated
hail just clipping the S/SE zones Tuesday afternoon. Kept slight
mention of thunder restricted to areas along and south of US
Highway 50. 12z NAM in particular develops strong north-south
oriented mesoscale bands of moderate to heavy rain, affecting the
central and eastern counties. Rainfall amounts near one inch in
4-6 hours are likely if this banding comes to fruition. Trimmed
temperatures down several degrees with the expected clouds, rain
and limited diurnal temperature curve. This will be a wind blown
rain, with a sizable pressure gradient keeping easterly winds
gusting near 30 mph as the rain falls Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Prolonged beneficial rainfall event will continue through
Wednesday, slowly winding down Wednesday night. Pop grids are in
the likely to definite category and are justified with high
confidence. Strong closed low SW of Lubbock at 7 am Wed only
slowly meanders to near Childress, TX at 7 pm. With this synoptic
track, waves of rain, moderate to heavy at times, will rotate into
SW KS (from SSE to NNW) through the day Wednesday. Expecting QPF
of 0.50-1 inch during the daylight hours Wednesday alone. A slight
chance of thunder is included in the grids, but expect this aspect
to be limited, especially with northern extent. As the cyclone`s
deformation axis pivots over SW KS late Wednesday into Wednesday
night, noticed that 12z ECMWF drops 850 mb temperatures into the
+1C range, with thickness bottoming out around 547 dm. This is
actually a tick warmer than the last ECMWF run, so confident the
vast majority of precipitation will be rain, perhaps ending with a
brief mix of very wet snow on the higher terrain of the NW
counties Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

Thursday...Storm system accelerates into Missouri, with a rapidly
clearing sky and dry weather. Weak cool advection with a
diminishing north wind will keep the NE 1/2 of the CWA in the 50s,
with lower 60s along the southern border.

Shortwave ridge axis passes Friday morning, with clouds increasing
again late in the day, as the next storm system in the active
parade of systems approaches from the Four Corners. Friday will be
dry, with rain showers returning Friday night.

Proposed model track for this next system is further north,
tracking generally over SW KS, Saturday through Sunday. With this
more northerly track, rainfall will not be as widespread as we
will see Tuesday and Wednesday. Still, the storm tracks slowly,
producing an extended period of showery weather. Will monitor the
storm track and speed over the coming days and align rain chances
accordingly. 12z ECMWF suggests this will be the last wave in the
series, with much drier weather returning during the first week of
April.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Models remain in good agreement that IFR and LIFR stratus and fog
will spread across southwest Kansas overnight as a east to southeasterly
wind continues at around 10 knots. Based on HRRR and SREF prob
the IFR stratus will first spread into western Kansas after 08z
Tuesday followed by the IFR visibilities in fog, especially at DDC
and GCK. Patchy to areas of dense fog does appear possible
between 10z and 17z Tuesday so will trend the 06z TAFS in the
direction. IFR Stratus will continue through the remainder of the
day and into the evening period but ceilings may improve slightly
as gusty east winds develop Between 12z and 15z Tuesday west of
DDC and HYS there will be a chance for some showers or sprinkles
as 700mb to 500mb moisture and lift begins to improve. For the DDC
and HYS areas the onset of precipitation should hold off until
after 15z based on the dry layer forecast below the 700mb layer
from the RAP model soundings. East to southeast winds will
continue through early tonight but wind speeds are expected to
increase into the 15 to 20 knot range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  53  45  53 /  10  90  90  80
GCK  45  52  43  50 /  10 100  90  80
EHA  42  51  40  51 /  10 100  90  80
LBL  43  54  44  55 /  10 100  90  80
HYS  43  54  44  49 /  10  90 100  90
P28  44  60  51  62 /   0  80  90  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert



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