Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201753
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1253 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Updated for the short term forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

An upper level high pressure ridge over the southern plains today is
forecast to move east steadily and be centered over northern
Louisiana by Friday evening.  A large upper level low pressure over
the western U.S. will deepen through at least Friday and a long wave
trough will set up on the east side of the low pressure over the
Rocky Mountain region.  This will slowly bring some mid and lower
level moisture northwest to our western Kansas region.  A surface
trough near the Colorado border will serve as a convergence boundary
for that moisture this evening.  The surface will significant warm
ahead of the trough and become more unstable by 00Z this evening.
There could be few high based storms form just along our northwest
boundary, including northwest Hamilton, northwest Scott, perhaps
northwest Lane and northwest Trego counties.  These storms do not
look to be severe, unless one lies down a microburst with 50kt+
winds.  SPC does not think we will have any severe weather this
afternoon or tonight.  Pops will slowly lower towards 06z, and
diminish to less than 15%.  Minimum temps in the 70s seem appropriate,
with the continued south to southwest flow overnight.

Thursday will have that surface trough slide a little more east into
our west-central CWA, and a south to southwest flow will help to
warm things up again.  Maximum temperatures will soar even higher
than today, especially in the southeast zones east of the trough
location.  Several southern and southeastern counties should reach
the 100F Degree mark.  Since the surface boundary will be displaced
40 to 60 mile farther east than today, low Pops for isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be west of a line from Hays to Cimarron to
Liberal. Since these Pops are low and below 20 percent, the QPF
is also expected to the low end and not widespread.  Southwest
winds will pick up into the 20 to 25 mph range in the afternoon,
but subside to around 10 mph near the trough axis in our west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Upper level troughs over the Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest
will gradually progress eastward through this week and into the
weekend. The southernmost trough will approach the high plains by
late Friday. Low level convergence ahead of this feature may result
in a few thunderstorms late Friday when high temperatures reach
near 100F. By late Saturday, the system over the Pacific Northwest
will pass across the northern plains; but western Kansas will be
in the well mixed warm sector, with only isolated thunderstorms
expected. Temperatures in the warm sector will continue to be hot
in the mid 90s to 100F. There are better chances for thunderstorms
by Sunday night and Monday as the next shortwave trough digs into
the Intermountain west. The mid to upper level winds will increase
somewhat by Monday so that severe storms can`t be ruled out. High
temperatures will depend on the extent of precipitation. Sunday is
likely to still be fairly hot. There may be a gradient in maximum
temperatures by Monday, with 80s in west central Kansas and 90s in
south central Kansas. Locally heavy precipitation is possible
from late Sunday into mid next week depending on the evolution of
the upper level pattern. The ECMWF and GFS are in very good
agreement with the large scale features. The timing and intensity
of localized heavy rains will of course depend on mesoscale
details that we are not able to pinpoint at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A surface trough will intensify in the lee of the Rockies today,
resulting in south winds at 18-23kts. Winds will stay breezy
tonight despite the loss of daytime heating. VFR conditions will
prevail.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  98  70  98  70 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  98  69  97  71 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  99  70 100  73 /   0  10  20  20
HYS  98  72  99  72 /  10  10  20  20
P28  98  72  98  75 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch






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