Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 051730
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1130 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

A pleasant afternoon for early December standards, with
temperatures warming well into the 50s, and lower 60s west of
Dodge City. S/SW winds gusting to 30-35 mph as of noon will
diminish rapidly late this afternoon as pressure gradients
weaken. Strong, but dry cold front will reach the northern zones
around 6 pm.

Tonight...Strong north winds. Wind velocities look to peak around
midnight, averaging 20-30 mph (gusts 35-40). Winds will remain
strong tonight, despite the nocturnal timing, given strong
cold/dry advection. North winds will relax toward sunrise, but
remain elevated enough to prevent full radiational cooling. Lows
Tuesday morning ranging from the teens in Hamilton county, to the
upper 20s in Barber county. Wind chill factors at sunrise ranging
from near 5 at Syracuse to the teens at Medicine Lodge. No stratus
expected given the arrival of the very dry air.

Tuesday...Much colder. Quite the airmass change across SW KS, with
850 mb temperatures today near +9C crashing to near -6C Tuesday.
Afternoon readings reduced to the 30s for most locales. The good
news: much less wind. 1024 mb surface high builds south into SW KS
through the day, with winds becoming light and variable by
afternoon. Midlevel clouds will increase rapidly ahead of incoming
shortwave by 6 pm, ahead of incoming shortwave, as shown by model
RH cross sections.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

A second upper level disturbance will move through the Pacific
Northwest and Intermountain west Tuesday then into the Central
Rockies Tuesday night. Ultimately this disturbance will move into
the Central Plains Wednesday. Cloud cover will increase as this
system approaches with a cold front moving through the area on
Wednesday. This disturbance is moving through the area too fast to
allow any meaningful moisture to arrive from the Gulf of Mexico.
However, lift ahead of this system will be strong and lead to snow
development as it passes. Latest model runs continue to show the
best opportunity for measurable snowfall to be across northern
Kansas with lesser amounts as you head southward. Nevertheless,
this system is still 2+ days out and track could change a hundred
miles or so to the north or south. Snow looks to start out across
northwestern Kansas and northeastern Colorado Tuesday night then
spread east southeastward as the day progresses Wednesday. Strong
northerly winds are expected behind the aforementioned cold front,
so anywhere there is measurable snow there could also be blowing
snow as a hazard. A quieter weather pattern starts Wednesday night
and continues through the remainder of the forecast period. This
is due to ridging over the western United states leaving west
northwest flow over western Kansas. At the surface, high pressure
will slide through the area and into the southeastern United
States by Friday night with a trough of low pressure developing
across eastern Colorado.

In addition to the snow, a cold arctic air mass will invade
western Kansas Wednesday through Friday. Highs will start out
Tuesday ranging from the mid 30s across west central Kansas to
lower 40s across south central Kansas then only reach into the 20s
Wednesday and Thursday. We rebound into the 30s to lower 40s
Thursday then 40s to mid 50s Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures
will start out Tuesday night ranging from the mid teens across
west central Kansas to mid 20s across south central Kansas.
Temperatures in the single digits to lower teens will be found for
lows Wednesday and Thursday nights before rebounding into the low
to mid 20s Friday and Saturday nights. With strong winds expected
across western Kansas, wind chills look to fall into the single
digits to negative single digits Wednesday morning then negative
single digits to negative teens Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 946 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Big story will be the wind shift change and the increasing of
winds from late this afternoon into this evening. A cold front
which will move into western Kansas later today will turn the
winds from the south to the northwest. By 23-02z the northwest
winds will start to pick up in the 20-30 kt range and stay around
those levels through the overnight and then diminish towards 12z
Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  24  38  20 /   0   0   0  30
GCK  60  20  37  16 /   0   0   0  30
EHA  63  21  36  18 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  60  23  38  19 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  52  23  36  18 /   0   0   0  50
P28  56  29  42  25 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Tatro



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