Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1220 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas today as short
range models indicate broad upper level ridging moving across the
Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains during the period. A
fairly dry air mass in the lower/mid levels and a weak flow aloft
will hinder any precip chances through Thursday night. Well above
normal temperatures are likely today as surface troughing strengthens
across eastern Colorado returning a modest southerly flow to western
Kansas. Considering highs reached the mid to upper 70s(F) Wednesday
afternoon, look for highs to push up into the lower to mid 80s(F)
across western and portions of central Kansas Thursday afternoon.
A few upper 70s(F) are still expected across south central Kansas
where the cooler air mass will be slow to erode. The warming trend
will continue for temperatures Thursday night with lows only down
into the 50s(F) across much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The anomalously warm temperatures (again) for this Friday still look
to be on track. The SuperBlend initialization looks pretty good, and
is taking into account the bias-correction to the gridded output and
MOS -- as SuperBlend is a good 3 or 4 degrees warmer than even the
warmest traditional guidance. Therefore, no upward change was
required. That said, if the downslope warm plume extends northeast
ahead of the approaching front as anticipated, there should
certainly be a corridor of 90+ near the Oklahoma border in the Red

The cold front Saturday will have at least a slight effect in
temperatures, but the front will struggle to reach much past
southwest Kansas, and as a result, the coldest air behind the front
will remain up in Nebraska and far northern Kansas. There are
indications from the ECMWF that the cold wedge (well, cool) will stay
locked in through Sunday preventing much of a warmup. If the cold
(cool) wedge is as strong as the ECMWF suggests, we may not get much
above 70-72 across much of southwest KS. The cool wedge will be
eradicated quickly as an intense shortwave trough ejects through the
Rockies into the Dakotas Sunday Night through Monday. Yet another
very warm plume will expand northeast across western Kansas on
Monday, so expect much warmer temperatures on Monday. The next cold
front will move down late Monday Night leading to a cooler Tuesday.
Throughout all this frontal drama, precipitation chances will be
next to zero with no moisture trajectories into southwest KS ahead
of these front.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Thursday evening.
Light and variable winds will persist across western Kansas as a lee
side trough of low pressure begins to slowly develop across eastern
Colorado. Lee side troughing will strengthen later Thursday morning
turning winds southerly 5 to 10kt, then increasing 15 to 25kt in
the afternoon.


DDC  48  80  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  44  82  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  47  81  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  46  82  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  48  80  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
P28  49  78  56  85 /   0   0   0   0




LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.