Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 120512
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1112 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Mid-afternoon water vapor and RAP analysis showed a rather vigorous
shortwave trough moving quickly southeast around the larger scale
trough, which remained a stronghold across the eastern CONUS and
Canada. The mentioned shortwave trough led to strong surface winds
behind the downslope-modified cold front. Surface winds over a large
area of the central and northern Great Plains were in the 25 to 35
mph range with higher gusts. Even with the north winds, temperatures
still warmed up into the lower and even mid 60s across much of west
central and southwest Kansas thanks to downslope trajectories off
the higher terrain of Wyoming. The strongest surface cold advection
was well off to the northeast in eastern Nebraska and Iowa.

Tonight we will see a marked drop off in wind speed after sunset as
surface high center behind the shortwave trough shifts rapidly to
the southeast into western KS. The light winds, mostly clear sky,
and very low dewpoints will support lows down into the lower to mid
20s most locations (coldest out west). On Tuesday, upper level
heights rise once again along with mid level temperatures as the
influence of the shortwave trough pulls away from the Great Plains.
850mb temperatures will warm upstream, back into the +10 to +13C
range across the High Plains by 00z Wednesday. Shallower mixing
is expected tomorrow due to light winds and directional shear in
the low levels, thus surface temperatures will not get as warm as
850mb temperatures would seem to otherwise suggest. Actually, our
afternoon highs tomorrow are expected to be a touch cooler than
today with most areas seeing upper 50s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The next in a series of northwest flow shortwave troughs will dive
southeast towards Kansas Wednesday. Again, we will see an
enhancement in northwest surface winds, and looks a lot like today`s
setup with temperatures warming up into the lower 60s with fairly
strong north-northwest winds and cold air advection not really
getting going until late afternoon -- allowing temperatures to warm
quite midday to early afternoon. Yet another wave, a bit stronger,
will be quick on its heels Thursday. This northwest flow jet streak
will be a bit farther west, so we will see colder lower tropospheric
temperatures than the past several waves. Wednesday and Thursday
diurnal winds will be fairly strong, and collaborated with
neighboring WFOs on increasing these winds over the SuperBlend
starting point...closer to the CONSMOS guidance which has shown a
bit better skill in these windy regimes.

Flat ridging will build in behind Thursday`s system, so we will
return right back to a westerly downslope pattern, warming us back
up to the upper 50s or lower 60s Friday and Saturday. Late weekend,
the three global spectral models ECMWF, GFS, Canadian all show a
decent synoptic trough across the Central Plains, but the trough
will be embedded in a larger scale zonal flow regime, so it is hard
to imagine much in the way of any precipitation chances with this
wave across western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all the central and southwest
Kansas terminals through this period. Surface high pressure will
slide south across western Kansas overnight with a weak lee side
trough developing over eastern Colorado on Tuesday. Winds will
gradually shift from the north to the southwest through the period
but should generally remain aob 10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Near critical to perhaps critical fire weather conditions will
develop again Wednesday with very dry low levels and stronger
northwest winds. Strong winds will again occur Thursday during the
day, but stronger cold advection with lower temperatures should
yield higher diurnal relative humidity to keep western Kansas out of
the near-critical levels, but it will still be very dry. There is no
sign of any wetting precipitation in the next 7 to perhaps even 10
days, and as long as we maintain downslope trajectories with the
progressive pattern, daytime dewpoints and RH will be very low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  60  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  61  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  63  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  22  60  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  55  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
P28  27  55  31  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid



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