000
FXUS63 KDDC 080731
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2013

...Update to long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Short range models indicate the upper level trough across the
Intermountain West turning more eastward into the northern and
central Rockies tonight setting up the possibility for light snow
development across central and portions of western Kansas into
Sunday. As the upper level shortwave approaches, the prevailing
southeasterly flow near the surface will begin to draw moisture
up into the region with dewpoints climbing well above 0F,
potentially nearing 10F across south central Kansas. While,
moisture slowly increases overnight, surface low pressure is
projected to move quickly eastward across the Colorado Rockies
into eastern Colorado by mid day Sunday. This will set up increased
low level forcing across central Kansas as the surface high in the
Northern Plains is slow to move into the Great Lakes Region.
Additionally, upper level support will be more favorable as a
strong +110kt jet lifts northeast across central and southwest
Kansas through the period. However, NAM/GFS model soundings show
low PW values of well under half an inch with profiles slow to
saturate, potentially resulting in limited snow accumulations.
The best chance for accumulating snow looks to be across central
Kansas near the I-70 corridor where lift/moisture looks to be the
most favorable. An inch or so may be possible here, otherwise,
accumulations are expected to be generally less than an inch.

Temperatures will be somewhat warmer from this morning going into
early Sunday morning as slightly warmer air advects northward into
western Kansas while surface dewpoints climb above 0F. Expect
lows just below 10F across west central Kansas to the lower
teens(F) across south central Kansas. Warmer temperatures can be
expected Sunday as the low level southerly flow continues to draw
warmer air northward into southwest Kansas. However, increased
cloud cover and lingering snow pack will hinder temperatures from
climbing too much. Look for highs only up into the 20s(F) with a
few 30s(F) possible close to the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

Monday:

A 150 kt 250 hPa jet will traverse across Kansas Monday with the right
entrance region moving across the region and creating some synoptic
lift. Light snow showers will be possible mainly across the southern
row of counties in association with the jet and weak 700 hPa omega/low
level baroclinic boundary. Not expecting any significant accumulations
as the atmosphere is dry near the sfc. Maximums expected in the teens
and 20s F.

Tuesday and beyond:

Tuesday looks to be the first day of above freezing temperatures in
a while as weak downslope westerly flow develops across the region along
with a weak 850 hPa downslope/warm plume. This warm up will be short
lived as another front traverses across Kansas Wednesday, resulting
in subfreezing maximum temperatures again. The rest of the period features
split flow aloft, dry conditions, and moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Skies will start out in the MVFR category, lower to the
OVC012-013 range by 09z, then at KDDC and KHYS, lower even further
after 12z into the the IFR category. Vsbys after 12z may go into
the 4-5sm range, and light snow could develop in the KHYS vicinity
by 10z. Later today, after the small short wave passes to the
east, IFR cigs will raise into the MVFR category, especially after 21z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  22   6  19   5 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  20   4  19   4 /  10   0  10   0
EHA  33   6  18   6 /  10  10  20   0
LBL  30   6  21   5 /  10  10  20   0
HYS  20   5  18   7 /  30  10   0   0
P28  25  11  23  10 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke