Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

An upper level trough, located over southern Idaho at 00z
Wednesday, will move east across the Rockies today and by early
tonight begin to move out across southeast Wyoming and southwest
Nebraska. As this upper level trough approaches late today an area
of low pressure will develop across northeast Colorado. As this
area of low pressure develops late today a weak surface cold
front crossing Nebraska will become nearly stationary in northern
Kansas. South of this surface boundary the 24 hour temperature
trends in the 900mb to 850mb level from 00z Wednesday to 00z
Thursday warm only a degree or two. Given this trend will continue
to favor highs in the low to mid 90s.The warmer temperatures will
be once again near the Oklahoma border in far southwest Kansas.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late today and early tonight
in northern Kansas as the upper level trough exits the Rockies and
moves out into the Plains. Based on the track of the upper level
trough, location of the nose of the 250mb jet, and where the low
level moisture axis/surface frontal boundary will be located late
today will focus the better chances for precipitation late today
north of I-70 in northwest Kansas. These storms will then track
east southeast overnight into Central Kansas so will continue to
keep the higher chances for precipitation overnight northeast of a
Garden City to Dodge City line.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Models remain in good agreement with keeping a northwest flow
over the central plains through early this weekend as an upper
level high remains nearly stationary across the southwestern
United States. Several upper level waves embedded in this
northwest flow are still forecast to cross the Central Plains late
this week and early this weekend. Given the instability and lift
present ahead of each of these upper waves there will be at least
a slight chance for thunderstorms from late Thursday through
Saturday night. Thursday night still appears to be the time frame
when the better opportunity for widespread convection will occur
across western Kansas based on the location of the moisture axis
present just north of a surface boundary from northeast Colorado
to south central Kansas, and the location of a mid level
baroclinic zone. The GFS precipitable water forecast of 1 to 1.5
inches at 00z Friday suggest that heavy rainfall will be a concern
from these storms Thursday night. In addition to the heavy
rainfall strong winds and hail will also be a possible early in
the event Thursday night.

The area more favorable for convection will begin to shift east
Friday and Saturday as mid level temperatures warm and the upper
level ridge axis starts to shift slowly east towards the central
and northern Rockies. As the chance for precipitation begins to
decrease the temperatures will begin to slowly climb through the
90s. A gradual warming trend is expected to begin this weekend and
continue through early next week. Afternoon temperatures are
expected to warm from the 90 to 95 degree range on Saturday to
the upper 90s to near 100 degrees early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

VFR this afternoon with scattered clouds and a prevailing SE wind
at 10-15 kts. Scattered thunderstorms expected to increase in
coverage this evening, with 12z NAM/GFS both forecasting a
convective complex near HYS by 03z Thu, and near DDC/GCK by 06z
Thu. Added convective TEMPO groups for GCK/HYS for the 03-07z time
frame, where confidence is highest for convective impacts. Some
of these storms will be strong, producing outflow wind gusts to
near 45 kts and temporary IFR in cigs/heavy rain. Models agree
thunderstorms will end by 12z Thu.


DDC  93  68  91  67 /  10  20  10  50
GCK  93  66  91  66 /  10  30  10  50
EHA  94  66  94  66 /  10  20  10  30
LBL  96  67  94  68 /  10  20  10  30
HYS  92  67  89  66 /  20  40  20  60
P28  94  71  95  71 /  20  20  20  60


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.