Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171115
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
515 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1253 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

A weak frontal boundary attendant to a fast moving upper level
shortwave transitioning across the Northern Plains, will quickly
push through western Kansas this morning, reinforcing the drier
air mass across the region. Along with a weakening westerly flow
aloft, this will keep precip chances at bay across western Kansas
through Saturday night. Despite the brief northerly flow, little
change to the air mass is likely. So, expect highs to climb well
up into the 50s(F) to near 60F this afternoon. Should see lows
only down into the 30s(F) tonight. Of slightly more concern will
be the gusty north winds developing this afternoon in conjunction
with lowering relative humidity levels. At the very least, look
for a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions setting up
for a few hours early to mid afternoon before winds quickly
subside toward this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 127 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Medium range models continue to show troughing deepening across the
Intermountain West late Sunday into the early part of next week
setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the
Western High Plains. Meanwhile, an attendant frontal boundary is
projected to push into western Kansas early Monday. Despite a
prevailing southerly flow ahead of the approaching boundary,
moisture will remain relatively limited across western Kansas
lowering the chance for any appreciable precip across the region
through the middle part of the week.

Well above normal temperatures are likely Sunday due to a quickly
developing and strengthening lee side trough resulting in a robust
south-southwest flow across western Kansas. This will draw much
warmer air into the area with H85 temperatures climbing well into
the teens(C) by Sunday afternoon. With much drier air present,
should see highs pushing well up into the 70s(F). We may see a tight
temperature gradient across the region Monday as a cold front is
forecast to push southward into western Kansas, then stalling out
before reaching the Oklahoma border. Look for highs reaching the
70s(F) once again in south central Kansas and potentially near and
along the Oklahoma border with much colder temperatures further
north toward the I-70 corridor. Arctic high pressure moving into
the Northern Plains will dislodge the boundary Tuesday, pushing it
southward into Oklahoma and allowing much colder air to filter
down across the high plains and dropping highs well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 512 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Northwest winds 20 to 30kt will develop late this morning
behind a cold front pushing through western Kansas and persist
through this afternoon. Winds will then subside this evening
becoming light and variable as a surface high pushes quickly
across western Kansas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

A deepening lee side trough of low pressure across eastern
Colorado will create a tight pressure gradient across western
Kansas Sunday. This will produce strong south-southwest winds with
gusts likely in excess of 25mph with peak mixing Sunday afternoon.
Additionally, the south-southwest flow will draw much drier air
into much of southwest Kansas lowering RH values down near 15
percent by early to mid afternoon. As a result, will issue a fire
weather watch across portions of southwest Kansas for Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  36  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  58  34  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  62  35  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  60  35  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  58  33  73  33 /   0   0   0   0
P28  62  34  70  53 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...JJohnson



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