000
FXUS63 KDDC 190508
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1208 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Breezy SW winds and scattered cumulus across SW KS as of midday.
Expect winds to decrease with time this afternoon as pressure
gradient weakens. Highs from near 85 north to the lower 90s south.

Mostly clear tonight with S/SE winds of 5-15 mph. Boundary layer
moisture will remain elevated, with dewpoints holding near 60,
which will in turn keep low temperatures Tuesday morning above
normal. Temperatures at sunrise will range from the mid 50s along
the Colorado border, to the lower 60s at Dodge City, to near 70 at
Kiowa.

Tuesday...Sunny, hot and windy. Vigorous shortwave will spread
into Wyoming by afternoon, inducing strong leeside cyclogenesis in
eastern Colorado. Resulting strong pressure gradient will support
strong SW winds during the afternoon. Both NAM/GFS MOS guidance
forecasts winds 20-25 mph sustained, with gusts near 40 mph
likely. Pronounced dryline along the CO/KS border at sunrise will
progress to near a Hays-Coldwater line by 7 pm. Tried to follow
the 12z NAM`s depiction of dewpoint trends, falling well down into
the 30s by late afternoon. Relative humidity will fall to the
12-17% range, and combined with the SW wind, will create critical
fire conditions especially along/west of US 283. Hottest
temperatures (97-101) can be expected immediately west of the
dryline during peak heating (roughly Ness City-Dodge City-
Ashland). No convection expected along the dryline boundary, and
kept all zones dry with pops <15%.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Weak dry cold front passage Tuesday night will take the edge off
the heat on Wednesday, but still plenty warm, with Wednesday
afternoon readings in the mid to upper 80s (normal is lower 80s).
Dry with few if any clouds.

Thursday...Large expansive trough will persist across the Great
Basin and the Rockies, with SW flow established aloft over Kansas.
Temperatures will bounce right back, into the low to mid 90s,
courtesy of strong south winds and warm air advection.

Friday...Upper longwave trough will approach further, close enough
for the associated forcing for ascent to interact with the
lee trough/dryline along the CO/KS border. As such, meaningful
rain chances return late Friday, with coverage favoring the
western zones as the model blend and 12z ECMWF illustrate.

This weekend...More active pattern with scattered convection
expected. Closed low at 500 mb near Salt Lake City Saturday
morning will only slowly meander to Wyoming by late Sunday.
Flow aloft will remain from the SW, which will keep moisture
advection sustained from the Gulf of Mexico, with the
lee trough/dry line available as a trigger. Model blend keeps
showers and thunderstorms in the chance/scattered category
Saturday, which is supported by 12z ECMWF. Model trends suggest
the best opportunity to pick up some sorely needed rainfall will
be late Sunday through Sunday night. Pop grids increase into the
likely category during this timeframe, with strong storms and
locally heavy rainfall possible.

Temperatures will gradually cool back to near or below normal
early next week, as heights fall and Rockies trough slowly inches
out onto the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

VFR conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours.
Southeasterly winds at around 10 knots overnight will increase to
around 20 knots by late morning. These gusty winds will continue
to increase into the 20 to 25 knot range as they veer more to the
southwest early this afternoon as a dry line crosses western
Kansas. These southwesterly winds will decrease after sunset as
the boundary layer winds decouple. 900mb to 850 mph wind speeds
overnight and then again early Tuesday night suggests inserting a
wind shear group during both periods. The stronger low level winds
after sunset tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Upgraded inherited fire weather watch to a red flag warning for
Tuesday afternoon. High confidence in critical or near-critical
fire conditions being achieved along and west of US 83. With the
latest 12z NAM punching a sharp dryline east of Dodge City (with
dewpoints falling well down into the 30s) expanded the red flag
warning to include areas along and west of US 283 as well.
Finally, pressure gradient progged Tuesday afternoon is
impressive, and increased wind gusts to near 40 mph in the red
flag warning areas. With widespread dormant fuels, outdoor burning
is strongly discouraged Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  96  58  86 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  59  96  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  56  93  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  96  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  97  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
P28  68  98  68  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-
084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Turner