000
FXUS63 KDDC 231904
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
204 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated for the long term forecast...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the CWA reaching
100+F degrees.  Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to
the lower 60s east, resulting in Heat Indices in the 98 to 102F
range.  If surface moisture changes prior to then, a Heat Advisory
may be required.  The strong upper high pressure over west Texas,
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and
lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses.
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming
east and southeast near our area.  Sunday will see more chances for
thunderstorms in our west near the lee side trough, with better
chances for convection across all of our CWA Sunday night.  The
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back
across as an upper wave Tuesday.  The 40 percent chances for storms
in Day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the
CONSALL Pops for now.

As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday.  As stated
above, 100+ max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about
as hot on Saturday with max temps at or just above 100F to 101F
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend
as clouds and precip chances increase.  Highs will be in the lower
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday.
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Winds will be easterly behind a weak cold front this afternoon and
then gradually shift to the southeast and south tonight and into
Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible between 21 and 02z
near KGCK along the front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69 100  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  69 101  73 101 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  70 100  72 101 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  73 101 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  69  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Finch