Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 310500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Aviation update...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A low pressure surface trough will continue into the lee of the
Rockies tonight with light moist upslope winds of 5 to 10 mph. With
the light upslope and clear skies, there could be some patchy dense
fog or at least ground fog generally east of Garden City from
around 4 am till 9 am CDT. The only model to suggest this is the
SREF. Overnight lows with clear skies look to be in the low to mid
60s.

For Monday, a weak trough will push towards western Kansas with
light southeast winds becoming light south. Some cirrus high level
cloudiness may increase across far western Kansas late. Highs
will be in the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For Monday night into Tuesday, a weak upper disturbance in
southwesterly upper level flow could bring a few thunderstorms to
far western Kansas Monday night. Some high level cloudiness also
increases from west to east. South winds increase to 20 to 30 mph in
the afternoon, as a lee trough deepens. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 60s. Highs will be in the mid 90s.

For the period of Wednesday into next weekend, weak upper level flow
persists across the Central and Southern Plains while an upper level
trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. As this trough moves slowly
into the Intermountain West by next Sunday, a cold front will push
across the Central Plains with the best chances for rainfall.
Otherwise expect little if any rainfall before Sunday. Highs will
be above normal, generally in the mid 90s, with lows in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Forecast issue is br/fg again for the morning. Models trending farther
east with the most reduced visibilities. IFR conditions for KDDC, and
MVFR for KHYS. KGCK should be VFR. Improvement back to VFR around 14Z-
15Z. Will watch and amend if lower flight conditions develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  62  96  64  94 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  64  96  65  94 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  62  97  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  62  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
P28  65  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...99



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