000
FXUS63 KDDC 012043
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
243 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS TIME PROGRESSES DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY PUSHING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WITH AN ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND IT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME SATURATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING NORTHWEST
KANSAS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
AS OF NOW THIS FEATURE ONLY INCREASES CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS MONDAY NIGHT REMAIN WARM AND IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. A LARGE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A COLD DAY IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S THURSDAY AND AROUND THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AROUND MIDDAY HAVE SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING SOUTH IN THE LOW LEVEL LATE
IN THE DAY, AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS,
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
VERY LIGHT WINDS AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  36  34  43 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  18  37  33  39 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  20  41  36  43 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  23  40  35  45 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  17  34  33  38 /  10  20  10  10
P28  20  35  33  47 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID