000
FXUS63 KDDC 272123
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

...LONG TERM UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 12Z TUESDAY, MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO BY DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING ONLY
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S BETWEEN 06Z
WEDNESDAY AND 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 40 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BASED
ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS BEHIND
THIS FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE COOLING FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS IN THE 900MB TO
850MB LEVEL FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY THE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 70 TO NEAR 75.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN ARE
STILL REPRESENTED FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE FIRST MAJOR CHANCE WILL BE THE BREAK FROM
ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL
RESULT FROM A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ABUNDANT INSOLATION SHOULD STILL BE ACHIEVED AS UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN CONTROL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS DO NOT APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MOS GUIDANCE ONLY
SUGGESTS MID TEENS FOR THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SETUP FOR COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AS THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY, WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TYPE II SNOW EVENT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST, TO HAVE IT`S GREATEST IMPACTS ON
SATURDAY FOR WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PRODUCE AN
AVERAGE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY
ON SATURDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILES WELL SUPPORT SNOW AS A
PRECIPITATION TYPE, WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY CENTERED AROUND
THE TIMING OF A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER, PROBABLY FORCED BY WET
BULBING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A STRONGLY FRONTOGENETIC FORCED EVENT, SO EXCESSIVELY HIGH SNOW
AMOUNTS IN BANDING IS LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER A HIGH END SNOW ADVISORY
TYPE EVENT IS DEFINITELY WITHING THE SCOPE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BASED ON THE 12Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
WHICH INDICATED ONLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z
WEDNESDAY TO 18Z WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  68  38  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  36  67  36  50 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  40  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  36  71  38  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  37  66  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  72  41  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT