Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250508
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1208 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

At 00z Monday a 500mb ridge axis extended from eastern Texas to
the western Great Lakes region. A 700mb to 500mb low was located
over western North Dakota with a +70 knot 300mb jet extending from
the base of this upper low near northeast Colorado to Minnesota.
Further west southwest another upper level trough was over eastern
Oregon/southwest Idaho and a +90 knot 300mb jet was located on the
west side of this system. Over the Central Plains the 700mb
temperatures at 00z Monday ranged from +9c at North Platte to +13c
at Amarillo. 850mb temperatures ranged from 21C at North Platte to
+28c at Amarillo. A weak surface frontal boundary extended from
the western Oklahoma panhandle to northeast Kansas. An area of mid
60s to around 70 degree surface dew points were located just north
of this surface boundary which stretched from north central Kansas
to southeast Nebraska. 850mb and 700mb moisture axis was located
from eastern Oklahoma to southeast Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

A strong shortwave trough was ejecting northeastward into the
northern plains this afternoon. The associated cold front had pushed
into southwest Kansas and stalled out. A few thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out in south central Kansas this evening ahead of the cold
front. Some elevated shower activity may develop tonight along the
Interstate 70 corridor to the south of the upper level jet streak;
but most of the precipitation should stay farther north. The front
will slowly edge northward tonight and Monday as the next upper
level trough digs into Nevada. This will result in a resumption of
southerly winds at 5 to 10 kts late tonight across much of southwest
Kansas. Lows will be mainly in the 60s to lower 70s. By Monday
afternoon, thunderstorms will develop along the stalled out front
in northern Kansas where low level moisture will be converging.
Thunderstorms may also develop farther south into western Kansas
ahead of a weak dryline. The best chance of severe storms with
large hail will be well north of Interstate 70 where surface based
CAPE and vertical wind shear will be stronger. High temperatures
ought to be in the upper 90s to near 100F given mostly sunny skies
with south winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

An upper level trough will move from Nevada and into the
Intermountain West on Wednesday, then into the Central Plains on
Thursday, and will be slow to exit the Central Plains by Saturday
afternoon. New model runs have this upper system slowing down its
progress and this will allow for thunderstorm chances Tuesday into
Saturday, with the best chances from Tuesday night into Thursday
with a cold front. The storms may linger near to east of Dodge City
on Saturday as the upper wave moves eastward. Severe storm chances
do not look all that favorable with fairly weak upper level wind
fields.

Daytime highs will be warm and in the mid to upper 90s ahead of the
front on Tuesday, then in the low to mid 90s on Wednesday, cooling
into the 80s for Thursday and Friday. Highs warm back up to around
90 for the Weekend. Overnight lows around 70 on Monday night and
Tuesday night cool into the 60s into the Weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A weak surface boundary will lift north across western Kansas
overnight. As this boundary moves into west central and north
central Kansas the surface winds will become south southeast at
around 10 knots by 12z Monday. Based on 03z verification from the
NAM and HRRR will stay close to these models on timing of the wind
shift overnight. Southerly winds will increase to around 15 knots
by the early afternoon. BUFR soundings indicating VRF conditions
will prevail overnight and Monday as moisture around the 700mb
level improves during the Day on Monday. Late day instability and
forcing across north central Kansas may also give rise to some
scattered evening convection but given the scatters nature of the
storms late Monday will not include mention of thunderstorms yet
in the Hays 06z tafs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  96  69  92 /  20  30  30  30
GCK  67  94  67  88 /  30  30  40  30
EHA  67  93  66  87 /  20  40  30  30
LBL  69  95  68  89 /  20  30  30  30
HYS  68  94  69  90 /  30  40  40  30
P28  73  98  74  95 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Burgert





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