Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 292056
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS A STRONG H5 VORT MAX LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES OF SOUTHERN COLORADO, A SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ENHANCING THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS, AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, THE STRONG JET CORE EXITING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS,
WILL CLIMB NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING
MAKING DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT MUCH MORE FAVORABLE WITH WINDS IN
EXCEEDING 80KT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPING STORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS ALOFT
STRENGTHEN, NOT TO MENTION MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING NEAR 1000 J/KG
OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS
THEY MOVE INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MID TO UPPER
50S(F) OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT, DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MARGINAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY ALLOWING H85 TEMPERATURES TO REACH
UP INTO THE LOWER 20S(C) ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S(F) IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STARTING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE GOING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA, TAKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES,
EXITING THERE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ENTERING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GIVING A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR HAYS,
SAINT JOHN AND MEDICINE LODGE, WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MIGRATING THROUGH TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RAINSHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE 50 PERCENT CHANCE
RANGE, AND INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH AS MORTON, MEADE AND COLDWATER COUNTIES. NOT
TOO MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE RECENT FALL PERIOD TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S IN THE SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY AREAS,
AND WILL BE AROUND 70F DEGREES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

BEYOND THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, EITHER. FRIDAY
WILL HAVE COOL MODERATING TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, BUT THEN SHOULD INCREASE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S RANGE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, AS WELL AS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. IN BETWEEN, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE COOL, WITH MINS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT GENERALLY WEST AND NORTH OF KDDC. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
KGCK AND KHYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY STORMS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  83  57  81 /  30  30  20  20
GCK  58  81  54  78 /  40  20  10  30
EHA  58  80  50  78 /  60  10   0  10
LBL  61  83  53  80 /  30  20  10  10
HYS  62  82  58  77 /  80  40  20  40
P28  63  85  63  86 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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