Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 172350
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
550 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017
...Updated for aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017
Goodbye ice! The meltdown is in full swing this afternoon.
Despite the melting ice (and the melting snow and higher
reflectivity across the western counties),temperatures are still
approaching MOS guidance. Lower 40s will be common this afternoon.
A clear sky is expected this afternoon and this evening, before
high clouds increase tonight. With the increasing clouds, and
added moisture in the boundary layer, lows tonight will be well
above January normals, in the mid to upper 20s. Along with WFO
Goodland, included patchy fog in the grids across the NW zones
Wednesday...A weak shortwave will flirt with the SE counties
during the morning hours, then rotate into NE Kansas by 6 pm. Some
additional clouds across the east/SE zones with this feature
Wednesday morning, and perhaps some sprinkles, but along with WFO
Wichita kept only token/ghost pops and kept the forecast dry.
Short term models suggest stratus spreading across mainly the
western zones Wednesday morning, as dewpoints climb into the 30s.
Assuming this stratus isn`t too extensive, and assuming we have
melted most of the snow/ice by midday, and given how temperatures
are behaving today, warmed up Wednesday`s highs closer to the
warmer 12z MAV guidance (upper 40s and lower 50s). The stratus is
a wildcard, and will be watched closely.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017
Long term will be highlighted by mild (above normal) temperatures,
perfect for post ice storm clean up efforts.
Thursday...Dry and mild. Weak closed low near Omaha, with sharp
shortwave ridging sliding into western Kansas through evening.
With SE boundary layer flow increasing moisture (dewpoints well
into the 30s), there will be some fog potential Thursday morning.
With RH grids near 100%, included fog in the weather grids.
Assuming fog can lift by midday (certainly not a given with weak
January sun), atmosphere will be mild enough to support low to mid
50s Thursday afternoon. Kept fog spotty in the grids, but if NAM
is correct, it could be a bigger deal.
Friday...Rather vigorous and negatively-tilted shortwave swings
into western Kansas. Dynamically, this system appears impressive,
with all models ginning up significant cyclogenesis over the CWA
(GFS 536 dm upper low NW Kansas Friday evening). However, moisture
will be limited, with QPF model output paltry. Modest pops from
the superblend favor the northern zones, north of the surface low.
With a lack of cold air, expecting only light rain showers or
sprinkles. Highs mainly in the upper 40s, with lower 50s SE.
Saturday...Dry. Increasing clouds by afternoon, as much stronger
shortwave trough rapidly approaches from the Desert SW.
Temperatures change little, with more upper 40s and lower 50s.
All models rapidly deepen this shortwave into a closed, but very
progressive, low Saturday night and Sunday morning. Again, this
system appears to have very strong energy, but its progressive
nature, and now more southern track per 12z GFS/ECMWF, will keep
precipitation prospects across SW KS limited. Given the forecast
track, pops favoring SE zones for rain changing to snow appear
plausible. Cold air is limited, so a phase change from rain to
snow is likely. If this system can slow down and track further
north, a significant event is possible for the SE zones. Way too
early to tell.
Pattern remains active, progressive and rapidly changing early
next week. Per ECMWF, Monday appears dry with strong ridging. All
models agree on a very strong storm system coming into the plains
about a week from now, next Tuesday. But that is all they agree
on. ECMWF suggests a track to the north of SW KS and the potential
for a high wind event. 12z GFS track is further south, with
significant snow/wind. This time period will need to be watched
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017
An upper level disturbance will pass across the central plains
through the period. Moisture will be limited so that precipitation
is not expected. Some mid level cloud AOA050 is possible. Patchy
fog can`t be ruled out toward 12z as model soundings indicate
south winds and a very shallow layer of saturated air from
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 31 51 34 50 / 10 0 10 10
GCK 26 48 30 50 / 0 0 10 10
EHA 29 53 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 32 56 32 53 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 26 44 34 47 / 0 0 10 10
P28 30 51 36 54 / 10 10 10 10