Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210833
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

A vortmax will swing through the region this evening. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible across SE Colorado and into far SW Kansas in association
with this feature. There could be some marginally severe storms, but
overall chances are fairly low given the lack of moisture in the BL.
Marginal wind and hail looks to be the main threats. Other than far
SW Kansas, most of the forecast district will remain dry today. Highs
today will peak in the lower 70s. A light southwesterly wind is expected
to eventually develop later today. Overall, a nice late Spring day
across SW Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

A better chance of precip is possible on Monday. Both the global and
mesoscale models have a smattering of QPF across the forecast district.
The best lift, however, is forecast across the southern zones, so have
the highest pops in this region. Severe weather looks unlikely, although
there could be marginal wind and hail threats on Monday. The chance
pops look good for now, given the dearth of moisture in the BL. Beyond
Monday, a north to northwest flow aloft will continue with a weak sfc
pressure gradient across Kansas. Highs should be a little cooler Tuesday
compared to Monday (60s vs 70s) as CAA develops with the above mentioned
northerly flow. Tranquil weather and a dry forecast will dominate during
this period. Late next week, temperatures will warm up to seasonal
levels as WAA strengthens. There maybe a better shot at precip next
weekend, but confidence is pretty low attm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Cigs will lower between 8 and 10 kft
as a weather disturbance moves through later. VCTS and CB groups for
KGCK/KLBL/KDDC in association with this disturbance. Winds will be
fairly light and variable through early morning and becoming light
S/SW 5-15 kt today.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  51  71  48 /  40  40  40  30
GCK  72  49  71  47 /  40  40  30  30
EHA  73  49  70  47 /  50  50  30  30
LBL  74  51  71  48 /  50  50  50  30
HYS  72  51  72  47 /  20  40  30  40
P28  75  54  72  51 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden


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