Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 081820
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1220 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Tonight other than perhaps a brief cloud deck in association with
a backdoor cold front that is forecast to move through central
Kansas most of the forecast region should be quiet tonight as the
gusty winds will die down after sunset. Given the dry ground and
how the winds should calm down I went below MOS guidance for
lows. The past few days have been effective for radiational
cooling so I saw no reason why much of the area couldn`t fall into
the lower 20s.

Upper level flow continues to stay primarily north to northwest
through the time period as the ridge over the Rockies starts to
gradually move east through the day Saturday. This should allow
slightly warmer air to move into the region Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures should range from the mid to upper 50s with a few 60s
near the CO border. Winds should be lighter for Saturday however
the forecast RH look to be lower so the elevated fire risk will
continue for areas west of Highway 83.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 120 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

The forecast remains completely dry through this long term
forecast period, with high confidence SW KS will remain dry at
least through December 17th. So once again we are left with minor
temperature fluctuations and dry wind shifts. The latest 00z run
of the ECMWF model depicts no hints of a pattern change that would
allow moisture to return to the central plains, through at least
December 17.

Saturday and Sunday...Temperatures moderate over the weekend, as
500 mb heights and thicknesses rise and more of a downslope
component is realized. High confidence that the warmest day will
be Sunday, when all zones will easily cruise into the 60s.
Noted that the 00z ECMWF bias-corrected guidance is warmer than
Sunday`s forecasted temperatures, and will likely be correct with
the bone dry ground.

The next shortwave embedded in the relentless NW flow swings
through the plains on Monday, forcing yet another dry cold frontal
passage through SW KS. The brunt of the associated cold airmass
will be well removed to the NE of SW KS, with any temperature
reductions in our region minor. Did increase the NW winds in the
grids for Monday over the superblend starting point.

The next shortwave tops the mega-ridge, heading through British
Columbia on Tuesday morning, and then dives SE toward SW KS on
Wednesday. Both 00z GFS/ECMWF depict this feature, with GFS
forecasting a moisture-starved wind shift and temporary increase
in clouds. ECMWF is stronger with this system, developing a closed
low over Montana Tuesday, then diving it due south along the spine
of the Rockies, ending up near the Four Corners 6 pm Wednesday.
Either solution would only provide for a period of clouds, a wind
shift, and minor temperature reductions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1033 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

VFR conditions through the time period. Strong winds through 0Z
will be the weather highlight of the time period. Winds out of
the NW will be in the order of 20-25 kts with gusts around 35 kts.
After sunset winds should die down and generally quiet weather
conditions will prevail through the rest of the time period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  21  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  55  19  57  25 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  57  24  60  25 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  56  22  58  23 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  49  25  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
P28  49  24  54  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro



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