Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 060625
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
125 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
...Updated short term section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Patchy fog will be possible across portions of west central Kansas
this morning as moisture advects northward and winds become light
towards sunrise. Otherwise expect mostly clear skies into this
afternoon with a surface ridge to the east and an upper level
ridge over the Central Plains. Winds will generally be from the
southeast at the surface due to an area of low pressure located
over eastern Colorado. An upper level low moves into the Southern
rockies tonight. As it approaches, mid level moisture looks to
increase across western Kansas leading to mostly cloudy skies by
sunrise Wednesday. A slight chance of thunderstorms will be
possible across far western Kansas overnight but most likely it
will bring only light rain or drizzle. As for temperatures, highs
today look to reach into the upper 70s with lows tonight dipping
into the mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
There is still a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly
Wednesday and possibly Thursday. An upper level low will
approach the region from the southwest, although the main pressure
perturbation will still be well southwest of the forecast area.
Still, there may be some activity along the lee trof Wednesday
afternoon and then along the front Thursday. Severe weather looks
unlikely given only a couple of hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, but more
importantly weak bulk shear as Kansas will be sort of in split
flow with the aforementioned synoptic low to the southwest and the
polar jet well to the north. This period is the main threat for
any precipitation as we then enter a dry pattern thereafter. Highs
will be a little cooler in the wake of the front for Friday. This,
however, doesn`t look to last long as lee troffing and a warm air
advection pattern will quickly resume by the weekend. Highs in
about a week from now may trend to be quite warm as an 850-hpa
downslope warm plume advects off the rock pile to the west ahead
of a dry cold front next Monday.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MVFR to IFR conditions are possible this morning closer to sunrise
as low clouds and fog develop around the DDC and GCK terminals.
Otherwise expect VFR conditions with increasing mid level clouds.
Winds will generally be from the southeast at less than 10 knots
increasing to over 12 knots by late morning.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 57 80 58 / 0 20 30 20
GCK 78 55 79 56 / 10 20 30 20
EHA 80 55 75 54 / 10 20 40 20
LBL 80 56 78 57 / 10 20 40 30
HYS 78 56 81 58 / 0 20 20 20
P28 78 58 81 60 / 0 10 20 30