Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 252316

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
616 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

A very low amplitude shortwave trough was moving quickly across
the High Plains this afternoon. This disturbance will promote
development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this
evening. Initial development will likely struggle in a very warm
lower-mid troposphere, but eventually convection should become
realized sometime in the 00-03z time window as nocturnal low level
jet aids in low level convergence. Since convection will primarily
be after sunset, the chances of severe weather weather will be
very low given the absence of sufficient instability.
Nevertheless, the strongest storms could still produce up to
quarter size hail and some wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range.
POPs will be focused mainly east of Dodge City and only 20-30
percent at that. The weak Pacific cold front pushing south in the
wake of this system will act more like a trough axis, as the
airmass will not be any colder to the north of it.

The initial push of the boundary tonight will fade, leaving a
large area of light and variable winds along the initial frontal
zone/trough axis. The pool of surface moisture (57F+ dewpoints)
just ahead of this across far south central KS will probably lead
to the development of fog in the 09-14z time frame, so we will
keep Areas of Fog in the grids.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Winds will be out of the north behind the Pacific cold front
Wednesday, however the surface high coming in from the northwest
will be fairly weak, thus the north winds should not be any more
than 13 to 15 knots and mainly in the morning.

Through the end of the workweek, a large ridge of high pressure
will encompass the central CONUS, and this will lead to more
warmth. A new lee trough will develop as a southwest polar jet
ejects from California into Idaho and western Montana, promoting
leeside low development well to our north-northwest. This low will
move out into the Dakotas Friday as another Pacific system rides
the polar jet northeast from California to Wyoming. The global
models now show a windier scenario, and we boosted the surface
winds about 5 knots above the SuperBlend initialization (thanks
WFO GLD, GID, ICT for coordination on this). The increased
forecast winds 18-20 knots sustained along with dewpoints in the
upper 30s to mid 40s and temperatures rising into the lower to mid
80s will prompt "Elevated" fire weather risk during the midday
through late afternoon hours Friday.

Another Pacific cold front will move through, but again
temperatures will not be impacted much given the downslope
trajectories behind the front. Again, a large ridge is forecast to
build in behind this 2nd storm system with yet a 3rd system on its
heels moving into the Left Coast by Sunday.

We will need a fundamental shift in the hemispheric pattern in
order to unlock some of the Canadian cold air. Global models
really do not show a strong signal in such large scale regime
shift through about 4-5 November, so the trend of above average
temperatures and below average precipitation (if not none) will


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

A surface cold front will move across southwest Kansas overnight
as an upper level disturbance crosses the West Central High
Plains. Ahead of this upper level disturbance there will be an
increase in moisture in the 850mb to 600mb level based on NAM and
GFS model soundings. This will result in ceilings lowering into
the 3500 to 9000ft AGL by midnight. There will also be a chance
for isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms. Some patchy fog will
then be possible after 09z as the upper level trough passes and
clouds decrease from west to east, mainly near and east of DDC.
Ahead of this cold front tonight the winds will be southerly at 10
to 15 knots. As this front passes the winds will become light and
then gradually veer to the north.


DDC  55  78  49  80 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  51  79  46  82 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  52  78  47  81 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  53  79  47  82 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  54  75  47  79 /  20   0   0   0
P28  61  79  50  78 /  30  10   0   0




SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.