000
FXUS63 KDDC 281139
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
539 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST AT THAT TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AGAIN AROUND OR AFTER 00Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE TO IFR BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  40  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  40  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  30  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  30  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  30  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  30  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...GERARD