Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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449
FXUS63 KDDC 241706
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1106 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

A fairly vigorous storm system across the Great Basin continued to
move toward the Rockies very early this morning. Not much change in
the thinking this shift, and the forecast for today is largely just
an update from the previous with the exception that temperatures
will be warmer across the Red Hills portion of our forecast area.
The WRF-ARW model was preferred and followed since it handled
yesterday`s warm temperatures in the southwest the best. Barber
County should see highs in the mid 60s with a decent west-southwest
wind at 20 to 25 mph. Elsewhere, temperatures will top out in the
upper 40s to upper 50s from northwest to southeast with a gradual
shift in wind direction to the northwest by mid to late afternoon.
The track of the surface low will prevent precipitation chances
across southwest Kansas with dry downslope winds prevailing. When
winds turn around to the northwest, mid level subsidence will be
working in, and this will also prevent precipitation, so the
forecast for all areas will remain dry. It is not impossible to rule
out some sprinkles or a very light, brief rain shower, but mostly
what we will see with the mid level cold advection this afternoon
will be virga. Winds should remain around 20 mph through the Tonight
period as we remain in a fairly decent MSLP gradient, and this will
drop the wind chills to the +8 to +14F range by very early Wednesday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

The long term forecast from Wednesday through the weekend will be a
dry one with fairly seasonal temperatures. There is no indication of
any arctic airmass coming this way with positively-tilted ridging
into the Canadian Rockies leading to sustained downslope lower
tropospheric momentum up and down the Rockies from Colorado to
Alberta. We will likely see daytime temperatures slowly recovering
to upper 40s to lower 50s by late weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Low clouds will be found across the TAF sites bringing MVFR
conditions this afternoon. These low clouds should dissipate by
this evening leaving only mid to high level clouds. Northwesterly
winds will be breezy this afternoon into the overnight period
behind a cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Elevated fire weather conditions will develop this afternoon,
generally along and south of the Arkansas River to the Oklahoma
border. West southwest winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph, gusting
to over 30 mph at times by afternoon. This will combine with
temperatures warming into the 50s to lower 60s, especially in the
Red Hills, leading to afternoon relative humidity values around 20
percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  26  39  20 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  53  24  39  18 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  56  26  38  20 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  59  26  41  20 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  48  26  36  19 /  10  10  10   0
P28  66  29  42  23 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid



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