000
FXUS63 KDDC 250024
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
724 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The upper level low mentioned in previous AFD`s will move into the
Rockies today with embedded shortwaves moving through the Central
High Plains. Towards the surface, a frontal boundary currently
stretched from southeastern Colorado to north central Nebraska
will slowly ooze eastward as the short term period progresses.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to from along and
ahead of this boundary, otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies
through tonight. Moderate to heavy rain may accompany some of
these storms creating ponding of water on roadways. Winds ahead of
this boundary will generally be from the south with northerly
winds behind this frontal boundary. As for temperatures, highs
today are expected to range from the low 70s across west central
Kansas to upper 80s across central and south central Kansas. Lows
tonight look to range from around 50 degrees across west central
Kansas to mid 60s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Precip chances lessen Tuesday as medium range models show the upper
level shortwave in the Central Rockies lifting northeast into the
Northern Plains. The cold front moving across the Central Plains is
projected to push further southeast toward the Ark-La-Tex Region
while cooler and drier air filters southward into the high plains.
Shower chances will linger generally across south central Kansas in
an axis of post-frontal H7 frontogenesis. Any precip chances toward
the latter part of the week are expected to be more confined to
areas near and along the Oklahoma border and eventually shifting to
the extreme southwest part of the state as surface high pressure
moving across the Great Plains sets up an easterly upslope flow
across the South Plains and southern portions of the Western High
Plains. Otherwise, the cooler/drier air mass moving into the high
plains in wake of the frontal passage from the past weekend will
limit precip chances to areas of western Kansas further north.

Surface high pressure moving across the Northern Plains will reinforce
the cooler air mass across the Western High Plains holding high
temperatures down into the mid and upper 60s(F) Tuesday afternoon.
Fairly seasonal temperatures will persist through the end of the
week with surface high pressure remaining in control across the
Central Plains during much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 712 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

VFR conditions at all terminals until early morning. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will continue near KHYS for the next few
hours. As the cold front starts to move through the region
tomorrow morning, thunderstorms near all terminals will be
possible after ~11Z. Due to uncertainties in storm location and
timing, have left VCTS for now. MVFR conditions and reduced
visibility due to these storms are possible at all terminals after
~11Z, and dipping into IFR conditions for a short time is also
possible at KDDC, KGCK and KHYS as the storms move through. A wind
shift from southerly to northerly at 10-15 knots will occur
behind the front.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  65  50  68 /  80  80  60  30
GCK  55  61  49  67 /  70  60  50  20
EHA  53  60  46  66 /  70  50  40  20
LBL  58  65  50  67 /  80  70  60  30
HYS  58  62  51  66 /  80  80  60  20
P28  65  73  58  69 /  60  70  70  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Reynolds