Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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496
FXUS63 KDDC 281700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

A weak warm front is forecast to lift northeast today across
southwest Kansas. Models differ on just how far north this frontal
boundary will move by late day but given the late day instability
expected over western Kansas along with a wedge of low level
moisture just north of this front am a little concerned about a
the potential for a few afternoon thunderstorms. One negative
factor will be the warming mid level temperatures so am currently
leaning towards scattered to widely scattered late day a
convection near and north of this boundary. The better opportunity
for widespread precipitation will occur early tonight as cluster
of thunderstorms precede the next upper level disturbance that
will be crossing the central plains between 18z Thursday and 06z
Friday. High precipitable water continues to support heavy
rainfall with these storms tonight. In addition to the heavy
rainfall..strong damaging winds of 70 to 80 mph and two inch or
larger hail will be possible. The hail potential appears mainly to
be confined to the late day and early evening period.

Temperatures today will range from the mid 90s south of the
surface boundary to the upper 80s to around 90 north of this
boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

There will continue to be a chance for thunderstorms through the
first half of the weekend period as a few more upper level
disturbances embedded in the northwest flow crosses the central
Plains.

The Mid levels will continue to warm through the weekend period
and by late Saturday an upper level ridge axis will begin to move
east into the Rockies. The area more favorable for late day and
overnight convection will gradually shift eastward towards central
Kansas through the weekend period as a warming trend begins for
western Kansas. Highs approaching 100 degrees near the Oklahoma
border in southwest Kansas will be possible on Sunday. Highs are
expected across all of western Kansas to be near 100 degrees for
the start of next week.

By Tuesday a surface cold front will move south into western
Kansas as an upper level trough is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF
to cross the northern Plains. This should bring the a chance for
precipitation back to western Kansas Tuesday or Wednesday along
with a brief break in the warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Atmosphere will continue to recover from last night`s convection
this afternoon, with SE surface winds becoming reestablished
through 00z Fri. High confidence of another thunderstorm complex
affecting aviation starting around 00z near HYS, and progressing
south to impact GCK/DDC by 02z. Included convective TEMPO groups
in the 18z TAFs using this NAM timing as a guide. Primary threat
will be strong to severe outflow winds as high as 60-70 kts.
Current thinking is most convection will be south of the TAF sites
by 09z Friday. Stratus and areas of -SHRA to persist in the post-
MCS airmass Friday morning, but uncertain how low cigs will be.
Hedged at 4k ft AGL for now. Surface winds expected to maintain an
easterly component Friday, with convective potential much reduced
in the cooler airmass.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Models this morning remain in good agreement with a cluster of
thunderstorms crossing western Kansas early tonight. These storms
will be capable of producing torrential rainfall with rainfall
rates of one to two inches an hour being possible. On average
rainfall amounts overnight will range from 0.25 to 1.5 inches,
however in the steadier and heavier showers rainfall totals in
excess of 3 inches can be expected. At this time a flash flood or
flood watch for western Kansas does not appear warranted but
ponding of water on roadways and poor drainage areas will be
possible wherever these heavier showers do develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  65  84  66 /  30  90  30  20
GCK  93  65  83  65 /  80  80  20  20
EHA  97  66  86  66 /  20  30  20  20
LBL  97  67  88  67 /  20  40  20  20
HYS  88  65  81  65 /  60  70  30  20
P28  95  68  85  69 /  50  80  40  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner
HYDROLOGY...Burgert



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