Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 160715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
115 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 107 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

A strong winter storm may have lingering impacts across portions
of southwest and central Kansas early today as short range models
show a closed off upper level low lifting slowly northward across
central and eastern Kansas through early this afternoon. Meanwhile,
strong H5 vort maxima will continue to cycle around the low as it
pivots northward across the Central Plains, in turn, setting off
further redevelopment of precipitation bands across much of western
Kansas. Also taking into consideration recent radar trends and
expected surface temperatures, freezing rain is likely to linger
across central and portions of southwest Kansas through late this
morning before dissipating. A few tenths to potentially a half
inch of additonal ice accumulation is possible. A brief switchover
to snow is still possible across west central and extreme southwest
Kansas toward daybreak as colder air begins filtering southward
across the high plains. Generally light amounts of snow are possible.
Have already extended the Ice Storm Warning until 18Z. Otherwise,
precip chances will end by this evening with drier conditions taking
hold through Monday night.

As for temperatures today, little change to the overall air mass and
prevailing mostly cloudy to overcast skies will limit highs to the
30s(F) this afternoon. Look for lows down into the 20s(F) Monday

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 133 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

A drier weather pattern can be expected through the end of the
week as medium range models show weak upper level ridging moving
out of the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains during
the period. An extremely weak flow aloft along with drier air in
the lower/mid levels migrating into western Kansas will keep precip
chances at bay across the region through the time period.

A warming trend can be expected through the end of the week as a
westerly, then southwesterly downslope flow set up across western
Kansas drawing warmer air into the area through the period. Well
above normal temperatures are likely by Thursday with highs reaching
the 50s(F).


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Periods of freezing rain and prevailing low level stratus will
result in IFR cigs/vsbys in the vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Monday afternoon. Snow is possible across west central and
extreme southwest Kansas toward daybreak potentially reducing vsbys
to MVFR/IFR at KGCK. Northeasterly winds 10 to 20kt will persist
across western Kansas through daybreak as a surface low lifts
northeast across western Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. Winds will
become more north to northwesterly 10 to 20kt by early Monday
afternoon as the surface low moves further northeast across the
Central Plains.


DDC  35  26  40  26 /  70  10   0   0
GCK  35  24  39  22 /  70  20  10   0
EHA  35  23  46  28 /  50  20   0   0
LBL  35  26  43  27 /  50  10   0   0
HYS  33  25  40  25 /  90  20   0   0
P28  37  27  45  28 /  50  10   0   0


Ice Storm Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for KSZ030-

Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for KSZ080-



LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.