Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 030913
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BEACAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  27  14 /  10  50  40  10
GCK  42  13  25  13 /  10  50  30  10
EHA  45  13  25  15 /  10  50  40  10
LBL  49  16  26  14 /  10  70  60  10
HYS  41  14  27  13 /  10  20  20   0
P28  48  17  29  15 /  10  70  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD


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