Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210607
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
107 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE ALLOWING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TOWARDS SUNSET INTO THE EVENING, THEN AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO
INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HINDER THE SUN FROM
PENETRATING TO THE GROUND. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT SHIFTING
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40
DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 40S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S. THIS DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS AND IF THE SUN
DOES BREAK THROUGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE HIGHER THAN FORECASTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A HUGE CHALLENGE GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY REGARDING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND WHETHER OR
NOT WE WILL SEE SEVERE WX ANYWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA (SPOILER
ALERT: MOST LIKELY NOT).

TWO MORE COHERENT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE UPCOMING: THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY.  THE FIRST EVENT WILL BE
TIED TO A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY UPPER LOW TAKING SHAPE JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS EVENT WILL EVOLVE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S
PRECIP EVENT..IN THAT A SHIELD OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
TEXAS/TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...EXTENDING
INTO EASTERN COLORADO ALONG A ZONE OF FAIRLY STRONG 800-700MB WARM
FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WE WILL BE GOING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA NOW FOR THE THURSDAY NITH
PERIOD (80+ PERCENT). RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD BE LESS
THAN TUESDAY AS THIS LEAD WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY COOL, MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUING.
MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER LARGE ROUND OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA,
WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE. ABOVE THE SURFACE, WE
WILL SEE A CONTINUED ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO A LARGE AREAL EXTENT OF STRATUS WITH THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE REMAINING COOL. THE ECMWF AND GFS COMPLETELY
DIFFER BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS40 BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT
THE UPPER LOW INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS FROM ARIZONA INTO
WYOMING WITH THE ECMWF HANGING ONTO AN UPPER LOW CENTER ALONG THE
ARIZONA-UTAH BORDER. THIS IS THE BASIC REASONING BEHIND THE
DIFFERING OF SOLUTIONS AND WHY THE GFS40 IS SO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...WARMING
THE 850MB LEVEL UP IN THE PROCESS. THE SLOWER, DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION
RESULTS IN 850MB REFLECTION ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH AN
EFFECTIVE BACKING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS SCENARIO
KEEPS THE COOL, MOIST AIRMASS IN CHECK ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, AND IS THE SCENARIO WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN PAST
EXPERIENCE WITH THE SKILL OF THE ECMWF IN HANDLING SOUTHWEST LOWS
AT THE D+2 TO D+5 TIME FRAME. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY, IT
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND VIGOROUS
CONVECTION IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF SATURDAY FROM WEST TEXAS NEAR
THE 850MB ZONE OF WARM FRONTOGENESIS INTO OKLAHOMA ALONG THE
SURFACE WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. THE GFS MODEL JUST DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A REASONABLE SOLUTION AS ITS PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN
POOR AGAINST THE ECMWF IN THIS REGIME OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS.

THE END RESULT ON SATURDAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES, MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER, AND PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SOME, BUT
WE COULD NOT LOWER DOWN TO THE COLDEST ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO
RELUCTANCE OF NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO JUMP OFF THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE MUCH (WHICH SHOWS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70 HIGHS GIVEN SUCH
NCEP INFLUENCE). I EXPECT THE NCEP MODELS TO TREND TOWARD THE
ECMWF AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY. THE LACK OF CAPE, AS A RESULT,
WILL LEAD TO A LACK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS
IT APPEARS BASED ON THE ECMWF...WITH ANOTHER SEVERE
WEATHER/ONGOING FLOODING EPISODE LIKELY FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

BEYOND SATURDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST AS
ANOTHER PERTURBATION DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH AXIS, AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF,
WILL REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY...AND AS LONG AS
IT REMAINS WEST OF US, WE WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
GOING. THE AIRMASS WILL VERY SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME SUSTAINED STRONG WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE MID
TROPOSPHERE TO ERODE THIS COOL AIRMASS. THIS MAY FINALLY OCCUR BY
MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
OR MOST OF IT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND MOS OUTPUT ONLY HAS THE
STRATUS SITUATION IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING IF ANY TREND AT ALL,
AS DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE INFLUENCES WESTERN KS. A
SURGE OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SURFACE UPSLOPE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING A RETURN TO SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  48  60  53 /  10  80  90  50
GCK  63  48  61  52 /  10  80  90  50
EHA  61  48  67  55 /  10  70  70  50
LBL  65  48  64  56 /  10  80  80  50
HYS  63  47  60  52 /  10  60  70  50
P28  66  50  62  55 /  10  80  80  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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