Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 112307
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
607 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Atmosphere has been temporarily stabilized by surface high
pressure ridge axis across the central plains this afternoon.
All zones dry through 7 pm, with only scattered to broken cumulus.
Temperatures this afternoon still well below mid-August normals,
from the mid 70s west to the mid 80s east.

Tonight...Increasing clouds with lowering ceilings, as warm air
advection and overrunning lift increase across SW KS. As 1020 mb
surface high translates to NW Missouri, surface winds will trend
SEly at 10-15 mph, with strong moisture transport expected along
the retreating frontal boundary. Rain expected to begin develop
across the SW zones around midnight, and progressively spread
northeastward from there through Saturday morning. 12z NAM is
highly aggressive with this, foreasting widespread 1-2 inches of
rain across the southern CWA zones through midday Saturday. Pretty
confident the NAM QPF is overdone. Gave some thought about a flash
flood watch for the southern zones for tonight and Saturday, given
the tremendous rain observed across the SW zones last night. Opted
to not issue the flood watch for now, but with saturated soils,
the next few shifts will need to monitor hydrology issues across
the southern zones through midday Saturday. Increased pop grids to
likely across the SW zones through sunrise Saturday, and increased
to categorical/definite (80%) along and south of US 50 for much of
daylight Saturday. Instability is progged to be limited, with
forecast soundings showing saturated moist-adiabatic profiles. As
such, only included isolated thunder in the grids. Jet dynamics
and frontal lift may increase the vigor of convection, however,
and the flooding threat would increase accordingly. Saturday`s
temperatures will be a function of how long clouds and rain
persist for any given location, with many places holding in the
mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the weekend, into about the middle of next week. FB
starting point pop grids show this pattern adequately with
chance/scattered coverage and were accepted. 12z ECMWF suggests
MCS development on Monday night, Tuesday night, and perhaps one
more time favoring the northern zones late Wednesday. Confident
more convection will occur through Wednesday, but timing the
associated triggering shortwaves and gauging the storm severity is
futile more than 1-2 days in advance. Some medium range models
are beginning to hint at a drier pattern developing late next
week, with dwindling rain chances and warming afternoon
temperatures. 12z GFS and forecast builder long term grids follow
this scenario with a very gradual warming trend. Alternatively,
12z ECMWF builds a strong upper ridge across the Great Basin and
the eastern Pacific late next week, which would keep the NW flow
pattern aloft marching on across SW KS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Saturday morning. Southeasterly winds 5 to 15kt will persist
through early Friday as surface high pressure shifts eastward
across the Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  77  65  83 /  60  80  40  20
GCK  63  76  64  82 /  50  60  30  20
EHA  63  80  62  82 /  70  70  30  30
LBL  66  79  64  84 /  80  80  40  20
HYS  61  79  63  83 /  30  30  30  20
P28  68  77  66  84 /  50  60  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...JJohnson



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