Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 212032
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
332 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT.
MODELS (IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF) HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE EVENT TONIGHT...NOT STARTING THE ONSET OF RAIN IN
THE ELKHART AREA UNTIL 01-03Z TIME FRAME AND THE HIGHWAY 283
CORRIDOR UNTIL 06-08Z. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE
RATHER COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE, BUT SOME SPORADIC THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO, FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A
WIDESPREAD ONE-HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS INCH EVENT, ENDING SOMETIME
MIDDAY FRIDAY (EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST). IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT, COOL, UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE,
AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. THE
FAR SOUTHWEST MAY RECOVER TO THE MID 60S, BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR TOMORROW IS TOO WARM, AND THE OFFICIAL GRIDS FOLLOW A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND THE COOLEST HIGH-RES MODEL, THE WRF-ARW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNER`S REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE EJECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BRING UP ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN
INCH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
WITH SMALL HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. A COLD FRONT
THEN SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
FROM SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND TOWARDS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 60S DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION FALLING. HOWEVER, IF THE CLOUDS BREAK OUT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS A FEW PLACES COULD REACH AROUND 70 DEGREES. HIGHS
IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR IN THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME WITH RAIN EXPECTED
FROM THEN UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HOURS (15-18Z). EXPECT IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER THE RAIN CEASES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  59  53  66 /  90  90  60  60
GCK  48  61  53  67 /  90  70  50  50
EHA  48  65  55  71 /  80  30  40  40
LBL  49  63  56  67 /  90  60  60  60
HYS  47  59  52  64 /  70  80  50  50
P28  50  58  55  65 /  70  80  60  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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