Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 041223
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
623 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016
Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through Thursday
night as short range models indicate a weak upper level ridge moving
out of the Central Rockies into the Western High Plains. A weak flow
aloft and drier air infiltrating the region within a westerly downslope
flow near the surface will hinder precip chances through the period.
Warmer temperatures are expected for highs today as the aforementioned
westerly downslope flow persists across the region. This will help
initiate a gradual erosion of a colder air mass with H85 temperatures
climbing up to a little under 0C. Look for highs well up into the
40s(F) across south central and portions of southwest Kansas this
afternoon with only the 30s(F) expected further north where snowpack
will linger. For Thursday night, lows are expected down into the
teens(F) across west central Kansas to the 20s(F) in south central
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016
Although medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave
digging southeast across the Western High Plains Friday, little
if any precip is expected with this system due to the lack of
low/mid level moisture and a generally weak flow aloft across the
region. Dry conditions will continue throughout the weekend for
the same reasons even as another upper level shortwave drops
southeast out of the Northern Rockies into the Central Plains
Sunday. The dry weather pattern can be expected to continue
through at least Tuesday as an amplified upper level ridge begins
to shift slowly east across the Intermountain West early in the
week. A brief break to a general warming trend can be expected
Friday as a weak frontal boundary pushes through western Kansas.
Still, highs can be expected up into the 30s(F) near the I-70
corridor where snowpack will linger to the 40s(F) further south.
Similar temperatures are likely through the early part of next
week as yet another weak frontal boundary pushes through western
Kansas late in the weekend.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016
Tranquil aviation weather will prevail through the TAF period.
Prevailing wind will be from the west at 8 to 13 knots with no
appreciable change in wind speed or direction through late this
afternoon. Winds will become light and variable tonight
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 43 21 40 22 / 0 0 10 0
GCK 38 16 37 17 / 0 0 10 0
EHA 43 22 42 24 / 0 0 10 0
LBL 47 21 44 22 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 35 16 36 19 / 0 0 10 0
P28 48 25 48 26 / 0 0 0 0