Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191736
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1236 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Boundary layer reaching saturation this morning, encouraged by
last night`s rainfall. Visibility wavering between 1/4-1/2 mile
here at the office. Updated to include areas of fog this morning.
Also, knocked down temperatures another few degrees across the
board today, and that still may be too warm. With clouds, numerous
showers, and persistent north winds, temperatures will move little
in the 50s today. Increased pops and QPF for rain showers and
embedded thunder expected this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The current weather pattern depicts an upper level low spinning
over the Central Rockies today then sliding into the Central
Plains tonight. A shortwave is progged to move around its
periphery and into the Southern Plains this afternoon enhancing
lift across portions of the Southern and Central Plains. Towards
the surface, an area of low pressure will be located southeast of
the area through tonight brining northerly winds to the forecast
area. Ample moisture will be found in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. This in combination low level lift will lead to a
thick deck of stratus clouds through tonight. The only exception
to this will be along the KS/OK border where some clearing will be
possible towards sunrise tomorrow. In addition to the cloudy
skies, scattered rain showers or drizzle will be possible
throughout the day and into this evening. Precipitation chances
should then decrease from west to east tonight. Thunderstorms will
be possible across central and south central Kansas this afternoon
with a few strong to severe storms possible across south central
Kansas. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the
upper 50s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Lows tonight are forecasted to range from
around 40 degrees across west central Kansas to upper 40s across
south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Cloudiness decreases across western Kansas Saturday with mostly
clear skies anticipated Saturday night into Sunday. Another round
of showers or thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night through
Monday as another upper level disturbance slides through the area.
Otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness. The remainder of the
long term period looks dry as an upper level ridge builds across
the western United States with high pressure being the dominate
feature across the Plains at the surface. Another day of highs in
the 60s is in store for Saturday, then rebounding into the 70s
Sunday and Monday. Upper 60s to lower 70s are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday with 80s possible towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Low clouds, some patchy fog along, with areas of drizzle and even
a few thunderstorms can be expected through the remainder of the
day as a northeast wind continues at 15 to 20 knots gradually
shift to the north by 00z Saturday. These gusty north winds will
then fall back into the 10 to 15 knot range overnight as a surface
ridge axis begins to build into western Kansas. After 00z
Saturday precipitation will erode from the west during the
overnight period as the upper level trough crosses western Kansas
and the surface ridge axis begins to build into western Kansas.
IFR/LIFR ceilings will also slowly give way into the MVFR
category early tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  45  66  44 /  70  50  10   0
GCK  57  43  64  43 /  70  50  10   0
EHA  53  42  65  45 /  60  40   0   0
LBL  59  44  67  45 /  50  30   0   0
HYS  57  43  60  42 /  80  70  20   0
P28  66  48  67  47 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert



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