Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250838
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...Updated short and long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate
the weather picture across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
Weak northwesterly flow aloft will be in place over western Kansas
through tonight. at the surface, a weak trough of low pressure had
developed across eastern portions of wyoming and colorado and this
feature is progged to remain nearly unchanged through the next 24
hours. In spite of increasing low level moisture, NAM and GFS
BUFR soundings show fairly dry and stable conditions across the
region through tonight. Areas along the Colorado border stand the
best chance of seeing an isolated thunderstorm as model soundings
there indicate the least stable conditions. None of the latest
model guidance suggests that we will see any storms in southwest
Kansas this evening as the weak upper level northwest flow should
not be enough to push any storms off the front range into western
Kansas.

Temperatures will continue to ease upward through the next few
days as the lower atmosphere slowly warms. High temperatures this
afternoon should be some 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Monday with
overnight lows tonight in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

An upper level disturbance over northwest Mexico this morning will
lift northward through the Four Corners region on Wednesday and
then top the ridge and move southeast across the northern and
central High Plains on Thursday. Thunderstorm chances will begin
to ramp up Wednesday night and then peak on Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening as the upper disturbance along with an associated
weak cold front at the surface moves through. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms should develop across the area, especially along
the front, and will likely be more numerous toward central Kansas.

The upper disturbance and cold front move through the area by
Friday morning with rain ending and skies becoming mostly sunny
again. We will return to a warmer and drier pattern for the
weekend as the upper ridge builds east into the central Plains.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a trend toward upper level
troughing developing over western North America. The GFS keeps
the main upper level flow over the western and northern portions
of the CONUS while the ECMWF is a little deeper with the upper
trough. Either way, increasing southwesterly flow aloft could mean
better chances for precipitation across the central High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

an upper level ridge of high pressure over the rockies will move very
slowly east through this period. at the surface, a trough of low pressure
will persist from eastern wyoming to along the kansas/colorado border.
these conditions will result in vfr conditions and southerly winds around
10 knots at the terminals through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  64  94  70 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  91  63  95  69 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  94  66  97  69 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  92  66  96  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  89  61  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
P28  87  65  93  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard



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