Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 181806
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
106 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017
...Updated for aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017
Moist upslope SE winds across all of SW KS as of midnight, with
dewpoints well into the 50s. Convective anvil debris dissipating.
Last few images of satellite imagery shows stratus blossoming
nicely, beginning just east of Dodge City. Stratus will continue
to expand north and west to some extent through sunrise, but am
uncertain how far it will get. Model guidance is not helping much
with little agreement. Included low clouds and areas of fog across
the eastern 1/2 of the CWA through early Tuesday morning.
Any stratus will burn off rapidly by mid morning Tuesday, with
sunshine and much warmer temperatures expected. Afternoon highs
ranging from the upper 70s far east (last to see the stratus burn
off) to the mid 80s across the SW zones. Increasing south winds
this afternoon, averaging 15-25 mph with higher gusts, in response
to lee troughing deepening in eastern Colorado. Moisture advection
will maintain dewpoints in the 50s this afternoon, with 00z NAM
forecasting CAPE near 1000 J/kg and lifted index near -4C. Despite
the instability, a lack of forcing will keep all zones dry through
tonight. Expecting at most some cumulus clouds this afternoon.
Tonight...windy and mild. A strong low level jet is progged to
develop across SW KS immediately after dark, with 850 mb winds
near 55 kts. South winds will remain strong and gusty all night,
averaging 20-30 mph. This mixing will keep temperatures warm
through Wednesday morning, with many locations only falling to
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, as plume of much
warmer air invades the southern plains ahead of an approaching
cold front. 00z ECMWF shows this nicely, with 850 mb temperatures
climbing to near +20C NE to near +27C far SW. Mid to upper 80s
will be common Wednesday afternoon, with lower 90s along the
Oklahoma border. Some mid 90s are possible south of Dodge City
near Ashland, where downslope and prefrontal compression will hold
on the longest. Most of Wednesday will be dry for most locations.
Cold front/dryline intersection expected to occur near the NE
zones around 7 pm, at which time all models initiate convection,
which subsequently moves southward across the eastern CWA
Wednesday evening. MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg and effective shear near
40 kts will support supercells initially early Wednesday evening,
with large hail likely from any storm that develops. This threat
is expected to remain confined to areas east of a Wakeeney-
Jetmore-Ashland line Wednesday evening. Most models depict
thunderstorms impacting the SE zones late Wednesday evening.
Cold front enters the northern zones around 7 pm, and quickly
clears all of SW KS by midnight with breezy NE winds.
Thursday will be noticeably cooler. Mostly sunny, a NE wind of
10-20 mph, and highs in the upper 60s.
Increasing clouds Thursday night, as forcing for ascent arrives
ahead of incoming jet max through the central Rockies. Light
showers, drizzle or fog are likely by sunrise Friday.
Regarding the expected storm system Friday, 00z GFS continues to
be stronger and further south compared to the 00z ECMWF. GFS
forecasts a 558 dm closed low to pass directly over SW KS Friday
afternoon. By contrast, 00z ECMWF doesn`t even close the low off
until it reaches central Kansas Friday night. With the stronger
more southern track, GFS and FB pops/QPF are much higher and there
are no major changes in the forecast for showers and thunderstorms
Friday. With either solution, likely pops are still warranted
(especially Friday morning), but did start trimming expected
rainfall amounts, particularly SW zones, should the drier and more
progressive ECMWF solution come to pass.
Much cooler Friday and Saturday, with afternoon temperatures
generally in the 50s.
Will need to watch Sunday morning closely for frost or potentially
light freeze potential. Strong surface high builds down the high
plains through 7 am Sunday, under dry NW flow aloft. With a clear
sky and light winds, radiational cooling will be strong and 30s
are likely. Sunday and Monday will be sunny and dry with a warming
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017
South winds will generally prevail through the period ahead of a
surface trough. A low level jet will lead to low level wind shear
later tonight. VFR conditions are expected with any cloud
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017
Much warmer with breezy gusty south winds today, but humidity
levels will remain elevated, lessening the fire danger. Wednesday
will be even warmer, with afternoon temperatures in the 85-92 range
and min RH falling into the 15-20% range across the western zones.
Elevated fire danger is expected west of the dryline Wednesday
afternoon, but it appears west winds will remain below red flag
criteria at 15-25 mph.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 60 87 48 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 84 57 86 47 / 10 0 0 10
EHA 88 56 88 48 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 87 60 92 49 / 10 0 0 10
HYS 80 60 84 47 / 10 10 10 10
P28 80 61 85 53 / 10 0 10 40