Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 060852
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
252 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Pretty good westerly downslope setup today in between systems.
Temperatures are the only challenge in the forecast, and just how
tight the gradient will be against the remaining snowpack across
west central Kansas. 850mb Temps will warm to around +4 to +6C
which supports surface temperatures in the lower to perhaps mid
50s for highs in areas of no snow cover. Pretty much kept the
previous forecast going with only cosmetic adjustments. We will
start to see some high cirrus spread in late in the day/this
evening from the northwest in advance of the next northwest flow
shortwave trough. West to southwest winds will not be that bad
today in the 10 to 15 mph range. The winds will stay around 10 to
12 mph or so tonight, which will help keep temperatures from
really bottoming out. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 20s still
look pretty good.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

More quiet aviation weather is forecast through Saturday and
Saturday Night. Prevailing wind will remain from the west to
southwest. Wind speeds should be at or above 12 knots at GCK and
DDC during roughly the 17z to 22z time frame. VFR flight category
is forecast through the period with upper level ridging moving in.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

On the hemispheric scale, the overarching theme through much of
the Long Term period will be a northwest flow pattern across the
central portion of the country with above to well-above average
heights out west and below to much-below average heights across
the eastern CONUS. An intense synoptic scale system will amplify
this pattern early week as a low tracks from the Upper Midwest
region into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. This feature will
bring strong winds to much of the Great Plains, including
southwest Kansas both Sunday and Monday. The going forecast
already had this wind forecast bumped up pretty high, with
sustained 25 to 35 mph winds across the eastern counties both
days, so there wasn`t much need to change this. Arctic air will
transport equatorward, however east of our part of the world. We
will just get a glancing shot at this airmass, and it will end up
being masked by a slight downslope component, so the end result
will be temperatures Sunday and Monday right around seasonal
average in the upper 30s to lower 40s for highs (warmer along
Oklahoma border). By midweek, we will see deep tropospheric flow
become more downslope, yielding a nice warmup Tuesday and
Wednesday. The latest ECMWF has some really warm air for Wednesday
with a large area of lower to mid 70s for highs! We bumped up the
Wednesday forecast a couple degrees over the SuperBlend guidance
to add a little more of this latest ECMWF influence into the
forecast. Come Thursday, we will probably see another front come
through cooling us back down closer to the seasonal averages, but
any arctic air should avoid southwest Kansas for the foreseeable
future.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

More quiet aviation weather is forecast through Saturday and
Saturday Night. Prevailing wind will remain from the west to
southwest. Wind speeds should be at or above 12 knots at GCK and
DDC during roughly the 17z to 22z time frame. VFR flight category
is forecast through the period with upper level ridging moving in.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  27  46  24 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  48  24  43  22 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  54  27  45  22 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  55  27  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  29  42  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  30  52  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid


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