Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260527
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

An upper level ridge of high pressure over the southern plains
is expected to gradually shift westward over the next several
days. Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance will move over the
ridge to the north of Kansas by Wednesday morning, helping to push
a cold front through Kansas Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
night. Surface high pressure will build across the central plains
Thursday before weakening. The upper level ridge will then shift
even father west by the weekend and amplify. A weakness in the
north side of this upper ridge is expected to move southeastward
and amplify over Kansas by early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

The aforementioned upper level disturbance will traverse the
plains tonight. Thunderstorms over Colorado will move across
northern Kansas this evening and tonight and some of these could
affect far western Kansas and along Interstate 70. The trailing
cold front will move across southwestern Kansas Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night, with the best chance of storms
being along and ahead of wherever the front is located after 3 pm.
Temperatures will reach over 100 from Dodge City south and east.
A heat advisory was issued to include Pawnee county south to
Comanche county and points east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Thursday and maybe even Friday may be dry as surface high
pressure builds in the central plains. However there may
be some lingering thunderstorms along the Oklahoma state line.
Temperatures will be much cooler by Thursday with highs in the
80s. Temperatures will remain cooler for the weekend and into next
week with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. The best chance of
thunderstorms Friday will be in far western Kansas with the low
level upslope flow north of the front. With weak northwesterly mid
to high level flow Saturday and Sunday, and a low level moist
axis that is expected to gradually shift eastward, thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out. There are chances of thunderstorms early next
week, particularly in far western Kansas as the next upper level
feature amplifies over the high plains region. But there is a lot
of uncertainty in how far east this rainfall progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Will include a period of a few hours of -tsra at the Hays terminal
early this morning as a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
moving out of west central Kansas may impact that area. Have also
included LLWS at the terminals given that VAD wind profiles are
showing 40-45 knot south southwesterly winds off the surface.
Model progs are also showing this to a certain degree. A cold
front will push through central and southwest Kansas later
Wednesday afternoon. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
along the front but coverage is not expected to be great enough at
this time to warrant a mention in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76 101  69  87 /  10  20  50  30
GCK  74  96  68  86 /  20  20  40  20
EHA  72  94  67  82 /  20  30  60  50
LBL  75  99  69  85 /  20  20  40  40
HYS  76  97  68  86 /  20  30  40  10
P28  78 103  74  90 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ065-066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Gerard


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