Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210954
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
354 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE MAINLY ZONAL
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS ENSURED A
CONTINUATION OF LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE
TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT NIGHT, WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS COOL TO THE
SATURATION POINT, FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED. IT WILL TAKE
THE PASSAGE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT TO DISRUPT
THIS PATTERN.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, ONLY SUCCEEDING IN SHUNTING THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON TO A LINE FROM HAYS TO KINSLEY
TO ASHLAND. THE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT LOCATIONS
SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT, STAFFORD AND MEDICINE LODGE FROM
GETTING OUT OF THE 40S. MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S FROM GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL
WESTWARD.

BY LATE TONIGHT, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A STRONG ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY 6 AM. WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NOT BE A VERY COLD AIRMASS SO THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AND THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET COMING ON SHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THIS PERIOD (MONDAY AND TUESDAY). THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS (VERSUS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS), WHICH DOES NOT
FAVOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE STORM WILL ALSO NOT BE ALL THAT COLD ON TUESDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, WE WILL BE CARRYING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AS THE 700MB COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY, BUT AGAIN, CYCLOGENESIS AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE
WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA (MONDAY NIGHT). ONSET OF STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION ON NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. A VERY TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL OCCUR IN THE 850-
700MB LAYER WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE. IN FACT,
WE WILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON TUESDAY TIME FRAME OF 25+ KNOTS.  WE HAVE BOOSTED
THE WIND GRIDS A FEW KNOTS WITH THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS.

THE DEEP TROUGH WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY MID-WEEK WITH FLAT RIDGING
BUILDING IN TO THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WILL FAVOR LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DOWNSLOPE WARMING AGAIN TOWARD
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON CHRISTMAS DAY, HOWEVER
CHRISTMAS DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE RATHER MILD WITH THE LEE TROUGH IN
PLACE (AND STRENGTHENING) WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.  IT IS
STILL FAIRLY UNCLEAR HOW THIS LATE-WEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE,
BUT LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST IT WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND MATURE TO OUR
NORTH, LEAVING OUR REGION DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VIBYS BELOW 1 MILE WILL MOVE INTO THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z AS A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INVADES FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY 21-23Z, WHICH SHOULD SHUNT THE LOW CLOUDINESS OFF
TO THE EAST, WITH CLEARING SKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  35  52  28 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  50  33  51  25 /  10  10  20  10
EHA  57  33  50  27 /   0  20  20  20
LBL  51  34  53  28 /   0  10  20  10
HYS  48  35  50  28 /  10  20  10  10
P28  47  38  54  30 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH



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