Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220826
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
326 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHUNTED INTO TEXAS BY THE
PREVIOUS FRONT SO THAT SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA OF RICHER MOISTURE, BUT GIVEN THE LOW
DEWPOINTS OVER THE PLAINS, THE STORMS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WHILE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. HOWEVER, SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ALONG INTERSTATE 70. MID LEVEL CLOUD WILL BE INCREASING
TODAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM; BUT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE,
TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND MID LEVEL CLOUD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A NUMBER OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE PLAINS.  ON TUESDAY, THE FIRST WAVE WILL
BE CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS. THE CAPE SHOWING FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IS IN THE 1500 J/KG
LEVEL, PER THE NAM AND GFS.  THUS SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND THE CURRENT HWO MENTIONS UP TO QUARTER-SIZE HAIL,
WHICH SEEMS ABOUT APPROPRIATE.  ON TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.  THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE STORMS AND AGAIN
THERE BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HAIL PRODUCERS TUESDAY EVENING, WITH
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORM TO OUR WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY, AND A NARROW, AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LOW SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS. A SURFACE LEE SIDE
TROUGH WILL FORM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER.  THE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER,
AND FOR NOW I DO NOT THINK THE SEVERITY LEVEL WILL BE AS HIGH AS
IT WILL BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN
2/3RD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MORE LIMITED THURSDAY NIGHT, AND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LESS
INTENSE, POPS WILL BE ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE LOWER LAYERS WILL DRY OUT SOME, AND
THUS FRI AND SAT SHOULD BOTH BE DRY OR PRECIP-FREE.  THE ECMWF
MODEL IS SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN OUR WEST, BUT THAT
SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR NO RAIN.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM 80F TO 85F DEGREES, AND LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST,
RESULTING IN A RESUMPTION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 12-16 KTS BY
15-17Z. IN THE ABSENCE OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LOW CLOUDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
AOA070 IS LIKELY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  60  82  60 /  10  30  30  30
GCK  77  62  83  60 /  10  30  20  30
EHA  75  62  82  59 /  20  20  10  20
LBL  78  62  85  61 /  10  20  10  30
HYS  77  58  79  59 /  10  50  50  30
P28  78  59  80  60 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...FINCH


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