Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Low level downslope flow will result in further airmass modification
today. Due to the continued dry ground, opted to go warmer than
any of the model guidance, with upper 60s to lower 70s for highs.
A dry cold front is expected to pass through tonight. This will
keep the lower levels mixed due to 10 mph north winds so that a
marked near surface temperature inversion is not expected.
Therefore, despite the cold advection behind the front,
temperatures should only fall to the upper 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

A dry pattern is expected across the high plains region for the
next week and possibly through the rest of November. The mid to
upper level flow pattern is expected to be mainly westerly to
northwesterly, with any embedded upper level disturbances being
fast moving. As long as we lack arctic air, temperatures will
continue to be much warmer than model guidance. After a brief cool
down Tuesday in the wake of the aforementioned cold front, warmer
air is expected by Wednesday. The warmest days, depending on the
exact frontal timing, should be Thursday and Friday. If the front
moves though late on Friday, low level down slope just ahead of
the front could propel temperatures to near 80 degrees. High
temperatures may be close to record values both days, with the
records being 74 for Tuesday and 80 for Friday. This forecast will
show 73 for Thursday and 74 for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

VFR is expected through TAF pd. S/SW winds 5-15 kt through much of the
day. Winds will become NW/N through the overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 104 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

There is an elevated risk of wildfires this afternoon. The NAM
humidity values were ignored in this dry pattern, with afternoon
values expected to be between 10 and 17%. However, winds are
expected to only reach 12-15 mph sustained, with gusts only to
around 20 mph. Therefore, red flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  40  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  71  40  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  40  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  72  38  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  70  40  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
P28  69  39  58  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Finch


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