Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Main focus during the short term period was pops. A few showers are
continuing early this morning. Additional development is expected later
today as a minor UL wave moves through. Meso and global models differ
with QPF, so broadbrushed the pops across the forecast district. Not
expecting a whole lot of rain with this activity, although a few spots
could see a couple tenths under the strongest of activity. Severe thunderstorms
looks unlikely as both shear and particularly CAPE are marginal. Only
calling for marginal wind and hail and that is probably being generous
with the threats. Otherwise, highs today will peak in the 60s, which
is from the cooler side of solutions considering all the precip and
cloud cover today. Lows mainly in the 40s are forecast for Tuesday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

On Tuesday, drier northerly flow aloft and at the sfc will prevail.
FB pops are slight, and only for the northeastern zones. Otherwise,
much of the area won`t see any precipitation. Even cooler highs are
expected Tuesday as a cool high pressure center prevails across the
Plains. Uneventful weather will continue through midweek with a dry
forecast. Moderating temperatures are expected Wednesday as high pressure
shifts off to the east and weak WAA resumes. 80s will be common Thursday
as the warm sector spreads northward. The EC is showing the potential
for nocturnal thunderstorms Friday and particularly Saturday during
the overnight periods. Confidence this far out is low and will have
to watch how the models evolve. Temperatures during the rest of the
extended period look pleasant with no pronounced hot or cold periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A rather complicated TAF package, with varying cigs and scattered
showers and convection, but overall expect VFR to prevail. Models
suggest stratus will arrive for several hours this morning,
approaching MVFR cigs at times, most likely at DDC/LBL. Showers
and thunderstorms have remained south of SW KS overnight, but all
models insist showers and isolated thunder will arrive later this
morning into the early afternoon. Low confidence on direct impacts
to any terminal, so carried VCSH for much of the TAFs. Brief
flight restrictions are likely in any passing showers. Expect an
improvement in cigs through about 00z Tue, with models showing
another lowering to low end VFR stratus 06-12z Tue. Winds will be
light through 00z Tue, after which a cold front passage is
expected to bring an abrupt shift to gusty NW winds. NW gusts to
25-30 kts are possible with fropa at all airports this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  47  67  42 /  50  40  20   0
GCK  67  46  65  41 /  50  30  10   0
EHA  68  47  65  43 /  40  30  10   0
LBL  66  48  66  43 /  50  30  10   0
HYS  70  47  65  42 /  40  50  20   0
P28  67  51  69  45 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner



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