Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181755
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1255 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Overnight water vapor and RAP analysis showed mid level PV anomaly
with associated mesoscale convective system (MCS) across south
central Nebraska into far north central KS. This activity will
continue to fester through much of the overnight hour, but this wave
will continue to pull away from our region, thus no impacts are
expected. Will continue some slight chance POPs in Ellis County,
though, as a few very small showers will form and dissipate through
the overnight.

Later on today will be the first of a multi-day stretch of hot
weather. It will also be the most humid of all the days, as it
appears now, so heat indices will likely reach advisory criteria for
Excessive Heat (105 degrees). This shift inherited an advisory for
Trego and Ellis County and this looks pretty good, although Trego
may fall just below as a model consensus of dewpoints show them
dropping to the lower to mid 60s by 21z when the 100-degree
temperatures occur. This will also be the case across much of the
rest of southwest and south central KS. We may add in Rush, Pawnee,
Stafford after the issuance of this Short Term AFD, as these
counties show 104-105 heat indices with higher dewpoints at 21z.
Other than that, no other major issues with the forecast this shift.
Winds were bumped up just a little bit via CONSMOS guidance, with
late afternoon speeds in the 15-20 mph range, gusts 25-309 at times
like yesterday (winds were stronger than forecast yesterday).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Persistence will be a pretty good forecast method Wednesday through
Saturday, as very little change is forecast in the overall mid-upper
tropospheric pattern. See no real reason to make any changes of note
to the SuperBlend base, which has highs in the 99 to 102F range
across just about the entire forecast area each day. Starting
Wednesday, surface dewpoints will be lowering, even in the eastern
counties, to the point that heat indices will most likely match the
temperature, thus keeping the entire area below the 105-degree heat
index threshold for a headline. Nevertheless, it will still be very
hot regardless, and extra caution will be needed to be taken for
those engaging in outdoor activities, even well into the evening as
temperatures will be slow to drop from the mid-upper 90s until
around sunset each day. No organized thunderstorm activity is in the
forecast until at least late Saturday, and more likely Sunday and/or
Monday as a polar front finally makes a strong enough push into
Kansas around this time. Early reads from the global models provide
a mixed signal regarding how strong this front would be (deterministic
GFS and Canadian stronger, ECMWF weaker).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

South winds will prevail through the period as a surface trough
persists over the high plains. There is only a slight chance of
a t-storm near Hays from 23 to 04z in vicinity of a warm front.
Outside of thunderstorms VFR conditions will persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  72 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
GCK 101  71 102  71 /   0   0   0   0
EHA 100  69  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
LBL 100  70 101  71 /   0   0   0   0
HYS 101  73 102  73 /  20  20   0   0
P28 101  73 100  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch


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