Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280532
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1232 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

A surface ridge axis will build into western Kansas overnight as
an upper low moves from southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa.
Will begin to see an increase in clouds from west to east after
midnight so despite the light winds anticipated early Thursday
morning will stay close to the previous forecast for lows.
Temperatures falling back into the upper 30s to lower 40s still
appears reasonable.

On Thursday an upper low will dig into the southwestern United
States as a surface boundary remains nearly stationary across the
Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. North of this boundary a
southeasterly up slope flow will begin to improve near the surface
along with improving moisture and warm air advection/isentropic
lift over this boundary. This will result in increasing clouds on
Thursday followed by a chance for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The chance for precipitation will then continue from Thursday
night through the weekend as the upper low moves east from Central
Rockies into the Central Plains. As this upper level system
approaches from the west on Friday this will result in the best
chance for widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across
western Kansas. Moderate or even a period heavy rainfall Friday
night is also anticipated. Given the saturated ground this
additional rainfall could produce some ponding of water on
roadways and poor drainage areas.

From Saturday through early next week the GFS and ECMWF models
begin to differ on track on this upper level system as it crosses
into the Central Plains as the next upper level low digs into the
southwestern United States. At this time confidence on lingering
precipitation chances are not high over the weekend into early
next week so will therefore favor persistence and the latest
CRExtendedFcst_Init.

As for temperatures late week into the the weekend period will
continue to favor highs mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s given
the expected cloud cover and precipitation chances. These highs
for Friday and possibly even Saturday may even be on the high side
given the GFS 900mb temperature trends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Winds will gradually veer from northerly to easterly through the
period, with some inrease in speed near the end of the period.
Some mid level cloud may form near the end of the period as well
as an upper level storm system approaches. VFR conditions can be
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  65  46  52 /   0  10  70  80
GCK  38  63  44  49 /   0  10  70  80
EHA  39  66  44  50 /   0  10  70  80
LBL  39  68  47  53 /   0  10  80  80
HYS  37  61  44  51 /   0  10  60  80
P28  42  69  51  64 /   0  10  60  70

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch


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