Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 212331
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
531 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN INVERTED TROUGH OF WARM MOIST ADVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE LAYER
WILL INFLUENCE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO
EXPAND ONCE AGAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHRINKS DIURNALLY BY MID
TO LATE EVENING. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS DEEP, AND BE
VERY SHALLOW WITH THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG OR
FREEZING FOG. THE GFS MOS INDICATES VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2 SM
WHILE THE NAM SUGGESTS EVEN A QUARTER MILE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
FORECAST AREAS OF FOG AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO
THE AREAL EXTENT AS WELL AS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EVENT WITH
RESPECT HEADLINE ISSUANCE. MEANWHILE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE, SETTING UP
CONDITIONS FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. THE MODEL BLENDS
PRODUCE HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 60S FROM LOCATIONS LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE, AND JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. A FEW BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOWERS MAY OVERSPREAD AREAS LIKE
MEDICINE LODGE, PRATT AND COLDWATER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY BEFORE THE MID
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE,
A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO
BE LESS THAN FAVORABLE, INCREASED FORCING FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL H7 FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A
FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TOWARD MID DAY SUNDAY AS NAM/ECMWF MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MORE SATURATED SOUNDING. OTHERWISE, DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPING
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY IN WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS(C)
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER, LOOK
FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE UPPER 40S(F) STILL A POSSIBILITY IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SHIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO MUCH OF KANSAS WITH THE 0C ISOTHERM PUSHING AS FAR WEST AS
WESTERN KANSAS. EVEN WITH A DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WIND LIKELY,
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED UP INTO THE 40S(F) TO NEAR 50F MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WELL WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOTS OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WITH DOWNSLOPE DEVELOPING
LATER THIS EVENING. COULD BE SOME STRATUS AND FOG HOWEVER JUST
EAST OF DODGE CITY. LIGHT UPSLOPE BECOMES LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE AT 5 TO 10KT AFTER 03-05Z TONIGHT, THEN INCREASES TO
12-22KT AFTER 15-17Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  60  36  52 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  27  60  32  52 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  32  66  34  50 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  28  64  33  52 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  29  59  36  51 /   0  10  10  10
P28  35  60  43  55 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...KRUSE



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