Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270759
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
259 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Overnight radar and satellite data showed a fairly healthy mesoscale
convective system (MCS) underway as of 0730z, just about to enter
far southwest Kansas. At the time, GOES-16 Clean IR Channel
continued to show a healthy area of -75C and colder cloud tops,
suggesting weakening was not occurring. Indications from various
convective allowing models (CAMs) are that the MCS will weaken by or
shortly after 12z. Wherever and whenever it weakens, it will leave
out a big area of convective debris atop low level stratus, along
with a mesoscale convective vort of some degree. The high
temperature forecast was lowered mainly in the southwestern half of
the forecast area given cloud concerns much of the day. Temperatures
will probably remain in 70s across far southwest KS especially. POPs
are highest south of the Arkansas River where any redevelopment of
convection later in the day should occur. That is the other dilemma
in the forecast is the when and where of the next MCS in this rather
non-baroclinic regime. This summertime regime is when CAMs really
create a headache with a myriad of possibilities. Conceptually,
given all the moisture in place, essentially no capping, there
should be another at least small MCS somewhere from our southern
counties to northwestern Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Given the very
high precipitable water progs and slow-moving nature of any
convection, some local flooding would be the only concern with
convection as severe weather risk will be near-zero.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Global models are starting to come into better alignment regarding a
prolonged period favoring wet weather across at least some of the
High Plains including western Kansas. For just about the entire
period through early-mid next week, the three major global spectral
models show a persistent, expansive 1020mb surface high centered
over the Iowa-Illinois-Wisconsin region with mean low pressure
across New Mexico. Deep, moist monsoonal regime moisture will be in
place across the Southwest/Southern Rockies into the adjacent High
Plains setting the stage for night after night of MCS activity
across the Central/Southern High Plains. By the time Tuesday of next
week rolls around, some portion of the High Plains, perhaps
including some of our western counties, could end up with 3 to 5
inches of additional rainfall. It is certainly a wet looking
pattern, with no sign of highs back into the mid to upper 90s for
the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

A fairly difficult forecast this period, as it hinges entirely on
how a developing MCS in southeast Colorado behaves overnight into
tomorrow morning. The MCS will be wallowing east very slowly in a
weak flow regime, so any rain at terminals would most likely be at
or around daybreak, unless pristine convection forms east of the
MCS itself. Regardless, IFR ceiling is forecast in the cooler,
more moist airmass behind the front through at least the late
morning hours. North to northeast winds of around 10 knots
expected through the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  67  88  67 /  30  20  10  20
GCK  80  66  87  66 /  40  20  20  40
EHA  79  66  86  65 /  60  30  30  40
LBL  81  68  88  68 /  60  40  30  50
HYS  85  65  88  66 /  10   0  10  10
P28  87  70  91  68 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid


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