Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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548
FXUS63 KDDC 191737 CCA
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1135 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Widespread stubborn stratus across SW KS at midday, will likely go
pretty much nowhere through this afternoon. The combination of
weak winds surface and aloft, and very poor mixing, will allow the
stratus and areas of fog to be persistent. At midday, the only
areas experiencing sun are the far western zones, portions of
Hamilton, Stanton and Morton counties. Cloud ceilings may show
some gradual improvments from west to east for a few hours this
afternoon, but for most, the gray sky will continue. In the limited
areas that receive sunshine, 50s will prevail this afternoon.
Elsewhere, temperatures are expected to hold steady in the 40s.

Tonight...Areas of fog and widespread stratus. With no change in
airmass, weak flow and a moist boundary layer will produce
widespread low clouds and areas of fog. Another dense fog advisory
may be necessary. With the clouds and moisture preventing
radiational cooling, temperatures will again struggle to fall
tonight, remaining well above normal. Some good news for those
awaiting power restoration.

Friday...Strong, negatively-tilted shortwave over SE Colorado at
6 am, pivots to SW KS at midday, and to NE KS by 6 pm. This
disturbance is quite strong, but moisture aloft continues to
appear limited. Will need to watch this shortwave for any
surprises tomorrow, but current expectations are a modest
scattering of light rain showers favoring the northern counties
Friday afternoon. Have noticed 12z NAM has lifted index
approaching zero in places tomorrow, so showers will be convective
in nature, with isolated thunder not out of the question. Areas
of fog and low clouds will likely persist again Friday morning,
but the shortwave aloft should help this erode faster on Friday,
by noon or so. Continued mild for January, with highs from the mid
40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 144 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

The upper low over the area this morning lifts off to the north
and east on Friday while another shortwave trough moves out of the
central Rockies into Kansas. This system could generate a few
light rainshowers over northern and western sections of the
forecast area Friday afternoon.

Satellite imagery and model output show a strong upper level jet over
the eastern Pacific moving toward western North America. The GFS and
ECMWF show this jet propagating into the Desert Southwest and
eventually the southern Plains by Saturday. The models have been
fairly consistent in moving a shortwave trough out toward west Texas
and then developing an upper low over the Panhandles late Saturday.
This system may bring some scattered light rainshowers to the area
generally south of Highway 50 Saturday evening.

Sunday and Monday should be mild and dry as a shortwave ridge
moves over the central CONUS. Another strong upper trough/closed
low moves out over the central CONUS on Tuesday. This system will
bring a better push of cold air into western Kansas on Tuesday.
The track of the upper low is not real favorable for precipitation
across southwest Kansas (i.e. tracking over northern Kansas and
southern Nebraska). The latest Superblend iteration continues to
bring some chance pops for light rain and snow so will keep that
trend going for now. Later periods in the extended look to be
turning colder again as the upper flow becomes more amplified with
a strong ridge along the west coast and northerly upper level flow
from Canada into the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Poor flying conditions will prevail through this TAF forecast
cycle. Weak flow at the surface and aloft, and a moist boundary
layer, will allow stratus and areas of fog to persist. IFR cigs
common at midday, may show some minor improvements to MVFR for a
few hours this afternoon, most likely at GCK. IFR may prevail all
day at DDC/HYS. With no change in airmass, high confidence that
stratus and areas of BR/fog will reassert themselves after sunset.
Very high confidence of IFR, if not LIFR, stratus cigs impacting
all terminals overnight into Friday morning. Short term models are
less enthusiastic about fog development and reduced vis. With
MET/MAV MOS guidance both showing saturation and fog development,
included TEMPO groups for all terminals when fog is most likely.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  36  53  30 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  45  30  47  26 /  10   0  20  10
EHA  58  32  53  28 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  50  30  57  27 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  45  35  46  31 /  10  10  30  20
P28  50  37  57  32 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Turner



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