Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 080500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

...Updated Aviation...

Issued at 806 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Ideal radiational cooling this evening sending temperatures into a
freefall. Winds have gone light, and with the exceptionally dry
ground and single digit dewpoints, many locations will continue to
fall well into the teens through midnight. Mid layer clouds
approaching from Colorado and Nebraska will arrive after midnight,
acting like a blanket and temperatures will begin recovering a
few degrees. Tried to establish temperature trends in the min
T/hourly temp grids.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1227 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

A small chance of snow tonight for the northern counties between
midnight and sunrise followed by a windy afternoon for Friday.

Tonight a trough of low pressure and an embedded shortwave moves
in association with the left exit region of the jet moving through
northern Kansas could provide enough lift to squeeze out some
flurries or light snow showers. The cloud deck associated with the
wave currently in the Dakotas should move into the region by
around midnight. Winds should be light again tonight however
temperatures should not be as cold as Wednesday night. The cold
air mass moves out of western Kansas and 850 temps will increase
through the night.

The attention turns to fire weather danger for Friday especially
in the afternoon. Clouds should quickly move out after sunrise and
winds will strengthen out of the north/northwest behind the
trough as the pressure gradient tightens. The strongest of the
winds should be from the Highway 283 corridor on west. Relative
humidities should be the lowest along the Colorado border falling
to 15-20%.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

The large amplified weather pattern in the upper levels continues
through the time period with no real chance of precipitation.

Saturday the longwave trough moves father east towards the Great
Lakes however a backdoor cold front will keep the eastern half
of the forecast region slightly cooler through the day Saturday.

Sunday as the longwave trough looks to be well off to the north
and east a milder airmass will move in from the northwest. Given a
slight west to northwest downslope breeze, a very dry atmosphere,
and a dry ground I put highs in the mid 60s. Depending on how the
forecast evolves these temperatures may need to be warmer.

Next week it`s playing the game of the straight north to south jet
bringing in cold fronts and side shots of arctic air. The next
cold front will move in Monday. By the afternoon Monday, it could
be another strong wind/fire danger event. The cold air should
push out by Tuesday afternoon before another shortwave and cold
front moves in Wednesday. Each frontal passage won`t have much
moisture so the dry weather pattern continues.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

VFR will continue through Friday. A period of mid level overcast
(8k ft AGL) is expected tonight through about 12z Friday courtesy
of warm air advection and a weak passing shortwave. Clouds will
clear quickly Friday morning, with SKC by 15z. After 15z Fri,
strong N/NW winds will again impact aviation operations at all of
the airports. The strongest N/NW wind gusts of 35-37 kts are
expected at GCK and LBL, while gusts will be slightly less (30-32
kts) at HYS and DDC. Around 00z Sat, expect diminishing winds and
increasing cirrus.


DDC  17  51  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  55  26  56 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  21  54  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  19  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  14  49  28  53 /  10  10   0   0
P28  13  50  26  54 /   0  10   0   0




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