Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
50 PERCENT WITH MOST PLACES POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  78  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  80  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  82  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  42  82  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  40  75  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  75  47  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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