Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230846

346 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...updated long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)

Short range models indicate upper level ridging moving eastward
across the Central Plains tonight giving way to a strengthening
southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. This will
coincide with a strong upper level trough digging southeast out
of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin Region. As the next
upper level system approaches this evening, a series of H5 vort
maxes will begin to eject northeast out of the Colorado Rockies
into the high plains of Colorado, western Nebraska, and western
Kansas. Although low level moisture is expected to remain marginal
at best, a southeasterly upslope flow combined with increased
convergence near the surface trough in eastern Colorado will lead
to thunderstorm development across eastern Colorado this evening.
A few isolated storms may drift into extreme western Kansas late
this evening then lift northeast overnight. Although severe
weather is not expected, small hail and gusty winds up to
55 mph will be possible.

For Wednesday, the approaching upper level trough will turn
eastward, moving out of the Rockies into and across the Western High
Plains bringing an increased chance for thunderstorms to central and
portions of western Kansas late in the afternoon. As the upper level
shortwave axis moves out of the Rockies, a developing dryline across
extreme eastern Colorado will sharpen as it shifts east into western
Kansas during the day. Ahead of the dryline, increasing moisture
and instability along with steepening low/mid level lapse rates
will set the stage for thunderstorm development along and ahead of
the dryline as it advances further east. Additionally, dynamics
aloft will become more favorable as a southwest-northeast oriented
upper level jet moves into western Kansas. Although a few storms
may become severe with CAPE values climbing in excess of 1000 J/KG,
NAM/GFS model soundings hint at a lower threat for tornadoes with
higher LCL`s generally above 7,000ft and a lack of favorable
directional shear.

Temperatures will be above normal tonight as a strengthening low
level flow across western Kansas enhances warm air advection into
the area. As surface dewpoints begin to slowly rise into the the
40s(F) overnight, look for lows only down into the 50s(F) across
central and southwest Kansas. For Wednesday, a prevailing southerly
flow will continue to draw warmer air northward with H85
temperatures upward of 20C across central Kansas to near 25C
in extreme southwest Kansas. As mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
persist, widespread 80s(F) are expected Wednesday afternoon with
near 90F possible behind the dryline across extreme southwest

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

A surface high will be moving through the area into Texas on
Thursday morning, resulting in light surface winds at least by the
afternoon after wind slacken through the morning. Aside form any
cirrus that might be associated with the upper jet skies should be
sunny given the low relative humidity in the lower and middle
troposphere. A better surface pressure gradient will be in place by
Friday resulting in breezy southerly winds.

Another dynamic synoptic scale storm system will affect the region
for the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement of
the evolution of another well pronounced dryline for Saturday,
with convection likely followed by a rapidly deepening low
pressure over western Kansas for Sunday. The low pressure is
modeled to track northeastward into the Missouri valley. The
expected track implies our area could see both a warm
sector/convective threat Saturday and deformation zone
precipitation as well into Saturday evening or early Sunday. While
precipitation timing modes/amount may be the most uncertain
characteristics, the warm boundary layer ensures pcpn will be rain
while high confidence also exists in windy conditions Sunday and
Sunday night. Potential exists for high winds on the backside of
the exiting low, centered around Monday morning most likely.
Gridded model output statistics indicates sustained winds around
40 knots. Winds were adjusted away from the initial ALLblend
forecast, to a much closer consensus of MOS for Saturday through
Monday. Models suggest deep meridional flow across western Kansas
and a few windy days into the early part of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

VFR conditions are expected through the first half of this TAF
period. Winds will be increasing to around 25-30 knots with gusts
to near 40s knots at times. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop along a dryline by around 21-22z. Most of the storms
will be east of Garden City. Will carry VCTS at all the TAF sites
after 21z and will include a tempo group at Dodge City and Hays
for a few hours in the early evening.


DDC  83  46  72  44 /  50  70   0  10
GCK  85  44  73  43 /  40  50  10  10
EHA  87  44  71  44 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  86  45  74  44 /  30  40   0   0
HYS  83  46  73  42 /  60  90  10   0
P28  83  53  72  45 /  40  70  10  10


WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ031-045-046-064>066-077>081-087>090.

RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.



LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.