Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171859 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
159 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A sharply defined upper level shortwave trough will be moving east
of the Central Plains tonight with some clearing. At the surface a
cool ridge of high pressure will also move east with light and
variable winds becoming light southeasterly. Some stratus clouds
could move into parts of southwest Kansas toward morning as moisture
is pulled northward from Oklahoma. Overnight lows will be in the mid
to upper 30s.

For Friday, upper level ridging will push into the Central Plains
with mostly sunny skies. As a lee trough deepens, the surface
pressure gradient strengthens across much of western Kansas. South
winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph and gusty. Highs on Friday, as
850 mb temps warm into the teens Celsius with good mixing, will
range from the upper 70s to around 80 far west near the Colorado
border to the low to mid 70s over the rest of southwest and south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A fairly active split upper level flow pattern will persist
through the extended period as indicated by the 00z runs of the
GFS, ECMWF and GEM models. At the beginning of the period on
Friday, a shortwave ridge will be moving over the central Plains.
Two separate but phased upper level shortwave troughs will be
moving into the western states. As the weekend progresses, the
northern stream wave will move from the Pacific Northwest into
southern Canada while the southern stream wave approaches the
central and southern Plains. The models suggest that this southern
stream wave may come out in two pieces with the first one moving
out over southwest Kansas Saturday afternoon and evening while the
main wave moves out on Sunday. In the lower levels, them models
show increasing southerly flow into the central Plains while a
frontal boundary pushes south into northwestern Kansas. Model
soundings show some moderate instability developing with some low
level convergence increasing along the front. Will continue the
chance pops currently in the forecast for Saturday afternoon. It
appears that the best chances for precipitation will be from west
central into central and south central Kansas Saturday night and
Sunday. There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms in
south central Kansas Sunday evening but precipitation chances
should be winding down fairly quickly as the mid level wave moves
east.

Dry and mild weather can be expected through the first half of next
week as upper level ridging dominates the central Plains. By
midweek, the models show another strong wave moving out of the
west. There are some timing differences with this next system.  The
ECMWF and GEM show a fairly robust and slightly negatively tilted
wave moving out by Wednesday with a dryline setting up somewhere
over southwest into south central Kansas. The GFS shows the wave
moving out on Thursday. A lot of uncertainty this far out, but there
is some potential for severe thunderstorms with surface dewpoints
into the 50s and stronger flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Rapid clearing and return to VFR conditions are expected for the
rest of the afternoon into the evening as an upper level shortwave
trough moves east. Light and variable winds will become light
southeast this afternoon, then become southerly after midnight.
Some stratus may form towards 10-12Z with some IFR/MFVR cigs into
15Z mainly west of the Dodge City terminal. Winds increase with
good mixing to the south after 16Z at 20-30kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  73  52  75 /   0   0  10  30
GCK  38  75  52  75 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  38  76  53  75 /   0   0  10  30
LBL  38  77  52  76 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  35  74  52  75 /   0   0  10  40
P28  36  72  53  74 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Kruse






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