Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250932
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
332 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY
SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STRONG 100+ KNOT JET
WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT THIS MORNING IN THE
FORM OF CIRROSTRATUS DUE TO AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WINDS CREATING LIFT. DECREASING CLOUDINESS
IS THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING, THEN
BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS NEBRASKA. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY BRINGING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
THEN TRANSITION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO
MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ENVELOPING ALL OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

ON FRIDAY, A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA, FIRST TO OUR WEST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW BY NOON ON FRIDAY, THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS FRIDAY
OVER THE COLD AIR IN PLACE, AND THERE MAY BE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT, AND AN INCH OR LESS SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM LACROSSE TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY, LEAVING WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
COLD AIR. THE SNOW POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND
TRANSITION EASTWARD INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS, I REMOVED THE SLIGHT POP FOR
SNOW IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR BARBER COUNTY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, FRIDAY SHOULD ONLY MAX IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FROM
WAKEENEY TO GARDEN CITY TO STANTON COUNTY. SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM STAFFORD TO CLARK COUNTIES, UPPER 30S SHOULD BE REACHED
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL FEEL BRISK FROM THE NORTH AT 12 TO 24 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START TO CLEAR IN THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT, AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS, WHILE MINIMUMS IN THE
AREAS OF MEADE, ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND PRATT WILL DIP TO NEAR THE
20F DEGREE MARK.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE SUN, BUT WILL BE JUST ABOUT AS
COLD AS FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BE LIGHT, ALLOWING MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS AGAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST, AND TO NEAR 20F DEGREES
DOWN SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. LITTLE WILL CHANGE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO SUNDAY, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40F DEGREES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

THEN ON LATE MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND BRING ANOTHER, STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH IT. THIS COLD
FRONT, PER THE THE ECMWF MODEL, WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SW
KANSAS ABOUT THE SAME SPEED AND PLACEMENT AS ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SO
SNOWFALL MAY BE LESS OVERALL. THE HIGHEST POPS, IN THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE, WILL BE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER IN, WITH HIGHS DIPPING TO THE MID 20S NORTH OF
I-70, NEAR 30F DEGREES FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY,
AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 30S IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD ONE, WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS FROM HAMILTON TO SCOTT TO TREGO COUNTIES. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 9 TO 11F DEGREE RANGE FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO ELKHART, AND
IN THE 16F TO 18F DEGREE RANGE IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES INCLUDING
PRATT, BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTIES. HIGHS WON`T GO TOO FAR ON
TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW ONGOING, ONLY REACHING THE TEENS NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM HAYS TO GARDEN CITY TO JOHNSON CITY, AND RANGING TO
THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PRATT TO MEADE.

TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST TIME PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED, WITH
A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. MINIMUMS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
DIP TO JUST BELOW ZERO IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BORDERING
GOODLAND. A BAND OF LOWS IN THE 3 TO 5F DEGREE RANGE WILL EXIST
FROM LACROSSE TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE
LODGE AREAS WILL BE THE `WARM` SPOT WITH LOWS AROUND 9F DEGREES.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT NO NEW ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARM WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 5
MPH.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 12
KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  24  33  19 /   0  10  40  40
GCK  58  23  29  17 /   0  10  30  30
EHA  63  24  30  17 /   0  20  30  30
LBL  65  25  33  19 /   0  10  30  30
HYS  53  23  30  17 /   0  10  30  40
P28  56  30  39  21 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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