Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240726
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
226 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AS WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING HELPS DIRECT A
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM/GFS
SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS LIKELY, EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) FOR
LOWS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY, PUSHING VERY WARM AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON MONDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS,
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 70 OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WAVE AXIS AND UPPER COOLING
PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL QPF IS VERY LIMITED HOWEVER,
AND MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HAS
BACKED WAY DOWN ON PREVIOUS QPF AND NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRY
GFS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH DRY UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A COOLER PERIOD IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR. ALONG WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS PRESENT, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR THE STRATUS TO MIGRATE AS FAR WEST AS
KDDC. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM AT ALL TAF SITES
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  53  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  86  49  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  87  50  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  87  51  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  86  50  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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