Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211922
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS AT 10-13 KTS. WITH THE LOSS OF
THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD AOA100 IS EXPECTED BY 12-18Z
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES; BUT ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  75  53  77 /  10  40  50   0
GCK  56  76  49  77 /  10  30  20   0
EHA  54  73  49  78 /  10  20  10   0
LBL  55  75  52  79 /  10  30  20   0
HYS  57  75  51  73 /  10  60  70   0
P28  57  77  56  79 /  10  40  50   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...FINCH



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