Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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188
FXUS63 KDDC 231704
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1204 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

For today, some early morning stratus, as dewpoints climb, will burn
off later this morning. An upper level shortwave trough will lift
northeastward across western Kansas during the afternoon with some
early morning thunderstorms generally south and east of Dodge City
dissipating, then reforming with daytime heating. The afternoon
storms will be mainly east of Dodge City in weak PVA region with the
shortwave trough. Mid level winds of around 25-30kt, jet winds
around 70kt, and CAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg, will allow
storms to become marginally severe. Hail from dime to quarter is
possible with damaging winds of 50 to 65 mph. South to southwest
winds will increase ahead of a surface trough moving into far
western Kansas, with 25 to 35 mph winds common. Highs today will
be warm with mid 90s.

For tonight, thunderstorms some marginally severe, will continue
mainly east of Dodge City for a few hours in the early evening.
Other waves will move from the southwest into western Kansas
overnight with a continued small chance for more thunderstorms.
Overnight lows will range from the mid 60s west of Dodge City to the
low to mid 70s across parts of south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

For Wednesday into next Monday, several upper level waves will
continue to push across the Central Plains with a continued chance
for more showers and thunderstorms.

Highs cool into the low to mid 80s with a cold front on Wednesday
with storms surrounding this frontal boundary. Ahead of the front in
parts of south central Kansas highs still warm to around 90. Then
for Thursday, highs will be cooler in the upper 70s to around 80 as
colder high pressure builds down into western Kansas. By Friday, a
slow warming trend begins as upper level heights begin to rise,
however another shortwave will bring another chance for more
thunderstorms. Highs Friday warm to the lower to mid 80s. As this
next upper trough lifts more north into the Northern Plains on
Saturday into Monday, high temps warm back into the mid to upper 80s
with decreasing storm chances. Overnight lows will stay mainly in
the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop after 21z
mainly over south central sections of Kansas. These storms should
stay east of the Dodge City and Hays terminals. There will be a
slight chance for thunderstorms over west central and parts of
southwest Kansas later tonight. There is some potential for these
to impact the Garden City terminal. Probabilities are low enough
at this time to preclude mentioning in the GCK TAF but this will
need to be monitored.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69  88  61 /  10  20  30  40
GCK  94  65  83  59 /  10  20  20  40
EHA  93  64  84  59 /  10  20  40  50
LBL  96  67  87  60 /  10  10  40  50
HYS  94  68  82  59 /  20  20  40  30
P28  92  73  93  65 /  30  30  50  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Gerard



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