Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210814
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
314 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Certainly, of greatest short-term interest in the forecast is cloud
cover for the 85-95% partial solar eclipse at midday. Unfortunately
for eclipse-watchers in southwest Kansas, the cloud forecast has not
changed, and in fact confidence has increased quite a bit that there
will be a near-complete sky obscuration from mid level clouds with
scattered rain showers and thunderstorms around. Afternoon
temperatures will depend greatly on the duration and expanse of
cloud cover as well as the shower/thunderstorm activity. Lowest
temperatures will be in the west with lower 80s for highs, and
around 90 in the Red Hills of Comanche and Barber County.

Better precipitation chances will be later on this evening and
through the nighttime hours east of Highway 283 as a surface front
pushes south and interacts with the deeper moisture and slow-moving
subtropical disturbance. Both the WRF ARW and NMM cores show a very
aggressive convective signal 03-09z along the front, including as
far southwest Ulysses and Garden City. Currently, highest POPs
(Likely) will be east of Dodge City, but these higher POPs may need
to be expanded farther west as confidence increases and the HRRR and
12z runs of the WRF models get a better handle of a difficult-to-
forecast pattern.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

An upper level ridge will build in across the Rockies mid week with
surface high enveloping the Central Plains. This will lead to a dry
forecast for southwest Kansas through Thursday Night with pleasant
temperatures in the 80s for highs. By Friday, warm advection will
develop in the 900-800mb layer as the flow pattern flattens out.
This will increase our thunderstorm chances. The flow pattern on the
synoptic scale will slowly become northwesterly aloft, which may
enhance our thunderstorm potential given at least a slightly
perturbed flow pattern aloft with semi-daily disturbances moving
across the Central Plains. Timing of these features is highly
uncertain beyond 3 or so days, so expect some fluctuation in the POP
forecast going into the weekend into early next week. Overall, with
mean ridging in the western CONUS and troughing in the east, the
temperatures through the end of this period will likely be at or
slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Main challenge will be timing and duration of convection impacting
terminals today. A subtropical storm system will be moving into
far southwest KS through the day, and this will sponsor
development of storms fairly early in the afternoon. Will be
carrying VCTS at all terminals in the afternoon, but shower and
thunderstorm activity will be scattered in nature and not
affecting terminals at all times during the period. Thunderstorm
risk at terminals will diminish by evening as axis of thunderstorm
activity shifts more into central and south central KS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  86  60 /  40  50  20  10
GCK  84  66  84  59 /  40  40  20   0
EHA  84  65  83  61 /  40  20  20  10
LBL  86  67  85  61 /  40  30  20  10
HYS  86  66  84  58 /  50  50  10   0
P28  92  71  87  62 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid


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