Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211130
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM CANADA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTED AS OF 2 AM ALONG THE
FRONT SOUTH OF DODGE CITY; AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY 5 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 10-15 KTS TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, ALONG WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD MAY PERSIST TONIGHT FROM
DODGE CITY SOUTHWARD; HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST
PLACES. IT IS TYPICALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER AT NIGHT DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION (3500-3800FT) AND
DRIER AIR. HOWEVER, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY APPROACH 10 KTS
IN THIS AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH BY MORNING SO
THAT LOWS MAY ACTUALLY BE COOLER IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COMPARED TO FARTHER WEST. WITH CALM WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 40S AT HAYS AND STAFFORD, TEMPERATURES AT THOSE LOCATIONS
MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE
EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET DIGS INTO A PROGRESSIVE MEAN TROUGH NEAR
130W AND A BLOCKY FLOW EVOLVES OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS
MORE INTENSE WITH CYCLOGENESIS THAT OCCURS AROUND 160W ON FRIDAY
THAN THE GFS AND CLOSES OFF A MORE INTENSE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE IN CALIFORNIA. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EAST TO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAN THE ECWMF AND HAS A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE MORNING
OF 29 SEPTEMBER. THE ECMWF OPENS UP THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND
LIFTS IT OUT AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON 29-30 SEPTEMBER WHILE
DIGGING ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LONG WAVE
POSITION. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IN THIS REGIME BEYOND THREE OR FOUR
DAYS IS MINIMAL, BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT A MEAN LONG WAVE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY 4-5 OCTOBER. THE ECMWF TYPICALLY
PERFORMS BETTER THAN THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AND THE SLOWER
LONG WAVE PROGRESSION ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF MAY BE MORE REASONABLE.

ANTICYCLOGENESIS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
KANSAS TODAY. PRESSURES WILL FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS MID
LEVEL FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE MOUNTAINS INCREASES MONDAY WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LEVEL LOW. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN ON MONDAY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO EASTERN COLORADO FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. IF
ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING CAN BE ACHIEVED IN THE NARROW MOIST PLUME,
THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
THEY WILL ENCOUNTER MORE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIKELY
WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. THE SEVERE THREAT MOST LIKELY WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE SUNRISE. ANOTHER MINOR TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY AND ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION IN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ANOTHER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL INITIATE IN WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST IN THE EVENING HOURS.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN RISING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK WEST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND WILL KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEK.  A PORTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BREAK
OFF AND WALLOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF
COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, AND DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SHUT OFF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE LATER THIS WEEK; HOWEVER, A FEW
DIURNALLY MODULATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL COLD POOL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCATTERED THIN, CIRRIFORM
CLOUDINESS AOA 250 WILL STREAM FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND A FEW CLOUDS NEAR 100 WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 18Z. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  52  80  57 /   0   0  10  40
GCK  78  53  81  56 /   0   0  30  40
EHA  79  55  77  58 /  20  20  30  30
LBL  81  54  80  58 /  10  10  20  30
HYS  76  49  78  55 /   0   0   0  50
P28  81  51  81  59 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...RUTHI


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