Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191702
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1202 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

A dry period will continue through Thursday night as a southwest
flow aloft slowly develops across the Western High Plains downstream
of an advancing trough axis in the Desert Southwest. Although this
will create a gradual increasingly difluent flow aloft across the
high plains, it will remain generally weak. This and a lack of
low/mid level moisture/instability will hinder any precip chances
through Thursday night. High temperatures will back off a bit
today as a stalled frontal boundary across the region this morning
is slow to lift back to the north, keeping H85 temperatures from
climbing much above 20C across central and southwest Kansas
through the day. Should see highs pushing back up near 80F later
this afternoon. Expect lows down into the lower to mid 50s(F)
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

There is an outside shot at thunderstorms late Friday as medium
range models show a southwest flow aloft becoming increasingly
difluent across the Western High Plains. Although the flow aloft
itself will remain fairly weak, a prevailing southerly flow near
the surface will draw enough moisture up into southern Kansas
ahead of a sharpening dryline, in turn increasing instability
across central and portions of southwest Kansas. As low/mid level
lapse rates steepen, a few isolated thunderstorms could be possible
Friday afternoon/evening as H5 vort maxima begin to kick out of
the Southern Rockies into the Central Plains. The best chance for
any thunderstorm development will be across south central Kansas
where an axis of higher dewpoints is forecast.

A more reasonable chance for precip exists late Saturday as an upper
level trough becomes more amplified as it moves out of the Central
and Southern Rockies into the Western High PLains. An attendant cold
front is progged to push across western into central Kansas by early
to mid afternoon. Considering the presence of a modest upper level
jet will provide more favorable dynamic support aloft, thunderstorm
development is more likely in vicinity of the frontal boundary as
it pushes into a pool of increased moisture where surface
dewpoints are expected to reach up into the 60s(F). However, a
prevailing dryline just ahead of the front is forecast to move
eastward into central Kansas by early to mid afternoon helping to
confine thunderstorm chances more to south central Kansas. Drier
conditions will take hold Sunday and continue through the middle
part of the week as a drier air mass across the high plains is
reinforced by yet another frontal passage projected to move
through western Kansas early next week.

Well above normal temperatures are expected to persist into Friday
as prevailing southerlies reinforce the warmer air mass across the
high plains. Should see highs generally in the lower to mid 80s(F)
across west central and much of southwest Kansas Friday afternoon.
Highs may struggle to climb out of the 70s(F) though in south
central Kansas where increased cloud cover could play a factor. Much
cooler temperatures are likely Saturday as a cooler air mass spreads
across western Kansas in wake of a cold frontal passage. A
predominately west to northwest flow will lead to a short-lived
warming trend Sunday and possibly Monday before yet another cold
front is projected to move through the region early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Wind has shifted southerly as a boundary that sat stationary in
our region this morning has lifted north. With deepening low
pressure in Eastern Colorado, the pressure gradient will tighten
and will cause wind to gust this afternoon and through the
overnight to 20-25 knots. Low level wind shear will be a concern
at KHYS from ~6-10Z. Moisture will advect into the region from
Oklahoma late tomorrow morning, which may cause MVFR ceilings to
develop at KDDC and KHYS. In addition, wind will start to
increase to gusts of 30-35 toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  56  78  60 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  82  56  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  79  54  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  80  56  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  83  57  78  61 /   0   0   0  10
P28  81  57  76  65 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Reynolds



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