Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 261151
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
651 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Strong to severe thunderstorms in the process of weakening this
morning across the eastern zones. Some storms have been severe
this evening with wind signatures on radar and up to quarter size
hail. Dual pol estimates show up to 2 inches of rain have fallen
near Larned/Pawnee county, La Crosse/Rush county, and eastern Ness
county. Further convective development is probable through
sunrise, in response to the LLJ, with activity being directed
toward Medicine Lodge. This evolution is shown nicely by the 00z
NAM and latest HRRR runs. Any showers/storms near Medicine Lodge
around sunrise will not last long, as much drier/more stable air
overspreads SW KS. North winds will be modestly gusty for a few
hours this morning behind the weak cold front, followed by a
stellar autumn afternoon. Diminishing NE winds under a clear sky,
with comfortable afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Another period of unseasonably warm and completely dry weather is
on the way for SW Kansas.
High pressure ridge axis rebuilds strongly onto the plains
Thursday. Full sunshine and modest southerly winds at 10-20 mph.
Lower 80s return for most locales.
Record or near-record heat is expected on Friday, as SW flow
develops aloft, and 850 mb temperatures climb back well into the
20s C. Mid to upper 80s will be widespread Friday afternoon.
SW winds will be strong and gusty Friday morning as the LLJ
weakens and mixes out, with winds diminishing during the afternoon
as a weak boundary slides south into SW Kansas. It is south of
this boundary, with the aid of downslope and compression, where
some locales in the SE zones should achieve the lower 90s. The
record high at Dodge City for October 28th is 85/1922, and will
likely be broken.
A very weak shortwave ripples through Saturday, accompanied by a
northerly wind shift and several degrees of "cooling" back to the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Not record territory, but still some 15
degrees above late October normals.
Sunday and Halloween...Another warming trend and more dry weather.
Expect lower 80s to be common Halloween afternoon with few clouds.
Have high confidence that trick or treating will be warm and dry
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Localized fog may be developing over areas that received rianfall
overnight, however the terminals are not likely to be so impacted.
Winds turn north this morning behind a slowly southeast exiting
cold front. Winds may gust into the teens (knots) in the afternoon
when mixing maximizes, and VFR conditions are expected at all
terminals for the duration of the TAF period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 48 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 79 45 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 79 47 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 80 46 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 76 47 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
P28 79 50 79 57 / 20 0 0 0