Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 250448
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1148 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to regenerate across the
eastern zones (east of Dodge City) through this afternoon.
CAPE/shear are quite healthy near Medicine Lodge early this
afternoon (MLCAPE 1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 40 kts)
so some strong to locally severe storms are probable in/near the
SE counties through sunset. Any convection through this evening
will strongly favor the eastern CWA as drier air works into the
western zones. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually taper off
across the SE counties overnight. A strong cold front is expected
to race through SW KS tonight, reaching the northern zones around
3 AM, and clearing Medicine Lodge by 7 AM. Pressure gradient
behind the cold front will support strong north winds, gusting
30-40 mph late tonight through Sunday morning. Lows Sunday morning
will range from the upper 40s at Syracuse/Hamilton county to the
lower 60s at Kiowa/Barber county.
Sunday...Refreshing. 1032 mb surface high in Wyoming at sunrise
Sunday will build SE, with the surface ridge axis building into
NW KS during the evening. North winds will be strong and gusty for
a few hours Sunday morning, and then quickly diminish as pressure
gradients relax in the afternoon. All zones dry by 1 pm, with
clouds eroding from north to south. Highs only in the lower 70s,
near room temperature, and actually several degrees below normal
for a change.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016
The coolest night and morning of the young fall season is expected
Sunday night and Monday morning. A perfectly clear sky is expected
at sunrise Monday, as a 1029 mb surface high settles directly over
SW KS. Radiational cooling will be at maximum strength with light
winds and very dry air, and followed the coolest guidance in the
low to mid 40s. Upper 30s are likely in and around Hamilton county
(forecasting 37 at Syracuse) so a frost advisory may be required
by later shifts.
An extended period of quiet weather is expected Monday through
Thursday. Upper lows over the Great Lakes and the Desert SW both
will be in no hurry to go anywhere, and strong high pressure
ridging will build between these two features across the plains.
Heights reach 592 dm at 500 mb on the 12z ECMWF run by Wednesday
evening. A warming trend can be expected, with 70s Monday, and
back to the mid 80s Wednesday. Winds will be very light in this
regime with few if any clouds Monday through Wednesday. Delightful
early fall weather.
Medium range models agree the Desert SW cutoff low will weaken
late next week, and shear out into the plains as a series of weak
shortwaves. This will be the next opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms, with the 12z ECMWF suggesting Saturday morning is
the most likely timeframe.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016
A cold front will move across western Kansas early with variable
winds shifting north northwesterly 15-28kt. Winds then settle
after 20-22z. VFR conditions are forecast with mostly clear skies
as cooler high pressure builds into the Central Plains.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 73 44 74 / 40 10 0 0
GCK 53 72 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 52 70 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 56 72 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 54 71 44 73 / 10 0 0 0
P28 61 73 49 74 / 50 30 0 0