Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

A surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies as a
shortwave trough passes across the central plains. As this
trough passes, a cold front will move into central Kansas
late Wednesday afternoon and intersect a dryline.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop northeast of where
the front intersects the dryline between 5 and 7 pm and
then become more widespread along the front into the evening
while progressing southward. Given the increasing vertical
wind shear profile and surface based CAPE up to 2000 j/kg,
hail larger than golf ball sized is possible with the strongest
storms and a tornado can`t be ruled out. Temperatures will fall
into the 50s in far western Kansas tonight with lower 60s in south
central Kansas. Highs on Wednesday should be in the mid to upper
80s, with some 90 degree readings behind the dryline in locations
such as Ulysses and Sublette.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The aforementioned cold front will pass across western Kansas
Wednesday night, resulting in cooler lows in the upper
40s by Thursday morning and highs in the 60s on Thursday.
A strong upper level level trough will amplify over the central
plains Thursday night into Friday night. Western Kansas is
expected to be on the cool side of the system so that severe
weather is not expected this far north. However, widespread
showers and thunderstorms should occur north of the front across
most of southwestern Kansas. The widespread cloud and
precipitation should keep temperatures from climbing out of the
50s. Some highs in the upper 40s are possible in locations such as
Syracuse, Johnson and Lakin.

Skies will clear late Friday night with lows in the lower 40s.
Some upper 30s are possible as well, especially in far western
Kansas. Highs on Saturday and Sunday should only recover into the
upper 60s despite sunshine. A warming trend will commence early
next week ahead of another upper level trough. There is another
chance of thunderstorms by next Tuesday or Wednesday as this
system passes.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

VFR expected at all airports through this TAF period. A strong low
level jet will continue across SW KS through sunrise, with
SW 850 mb winds near 55 kts. Low level wind shear will continue
areawide through sunrise. Gusty south winds overnight will veer
SW and remain gusty at 15-25 kts for a few hours Wednesday
morning. SW winds will weaken during the daylight hours Wednesday
as surface low pressure develops over SW KS, reducing the pressure
gradient. A cold front is expected to reach HYS by 00z Thu, and
the remaining airports by 03z Thu. An abrupt shift to NE winds
will accompany this frontal passage, with gusts of 30-35 kts.
Expecting thunderstorms to develop along this frontal boundary
near HYS around 00z, and perhaps near/east of DDC by 03z.
Mentioned VCTS/CB for HYS/DDC during the evening hours.


DDC  59  86  49  69 /   0   0  30   0
GCK  57  89  48  69 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  56  88  49  69 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  59  90  51  70 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  60  84  48  68 /  10  10  20   0
P28  60  85  54  69 /   0  10  50  10




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