Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 031709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1109 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BECAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
GCK AND DDC BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR. TONIGHT VFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
IMPROVES IN THE 800MB TO 600MB LEVEL. LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  14  25   4 /  10  70  70  10
GCK  42  13  23   6 /  10  70  70  10
EHA  50  13  23  11 /  10  70  70  20
LBL  50  16  24  11 /  10  70  70  10
HYS  41  14  23   3 /  10  40  40  10
P28  50  17  25  10 /  10  70  70  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT


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