Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 160541
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1141 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. EVEN WITH A MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS.
THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE COLDER AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SO, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) AND UPPER TEENS(F) AND LIKELY TO DROP
LOWER OVERNIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS(F) ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE 20S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL VARY LITTLE INTO
TUESDAY KEEPING H85 TEMPERATURES AT AROUND OR A LITTLE BELOW 0C.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE UPPER 30S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 40S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

ON TUESDAY NIGHT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
SLIDE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH FURTHER THAN WHAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED.
MODELS WERE ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES A SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST UP SLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF INDICATED MOISTURE,
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVING LATE
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRECEDING THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE IMPROVING
MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RETAIN A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAT WHAT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. GIVEN THIS WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEAR TO THE MAIN WEATHER TYPE
GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, UPSLOPE FLOW, AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT UNDER A WARM DRY LAYER IN THE 800 TO
650MB LEVEL.

AT THIS TIME THE GFS AND ECWMF BOTH ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER EXACT TRACK REMAINS UNCLEAR.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION AND AS A RESULT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TRACK OF THIS SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT AND EVEN
CALM WINDS FOR A WHILE TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  23  40  22  44 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  20  40  22  45 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  22  45  27  50 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  22  43  25  49 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  20  38  18  39 /   0   0   0  10
P28  25  42  23  43 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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