Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261812
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND THEN TO SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 20S. FOR
TURKEY DAY, LEE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
RESULTANT 10-25 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
THE DAY. WHILE BIRD CARCASSES WARM IN THE OVEN, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DO ITS OWN WARMING WITH 10-14C 850-HPA TEMPERATURES ADVECTING ACROSS
THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH RELATIVELY POOR MIXING IS EXPECTED, MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES STILL SUPPORT NEAR 70F OUT WEST, AROUND 60F CENTRAL, TO
50S EAST. OVERALL, SHOULD BE VERY MILD FOR YOUR TYPICAL THANKSGIVING,
WHICH AVERAGE HIGHS ARE NEAR 50 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BROAD ANTICYLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
ROCKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
TRAJECTORIES WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULT
WILL BE MILD NOVEMBER MAX TEMPERATURES, WITH THE WARMEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND THE COOLEST IN THE EAST. THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE RETREATING COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AND THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT. BY SATURDAY THE LOWER TROP WILL BE EVEN WARMER AND THERE
CERTAINLY IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE MAX TEMPERATURES COULD TOP
READINGS THAT ARE REALIZED ON FRIDAY.

BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE ATTENTION WILL BE TURNING TO AN
ADVANCING ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS THE FRONT MOVING
ACROSS MY CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL BE
RATHER SHALLOW AND A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS TYPICALLY WILL ADVANCE QUICKER THAN COMPUTER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THAT WITH ZONAL FLOW
THE ARCTIC AIR MAY BEGIN TO BE ERODED DURING THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PD WITH JUST SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUING TODAY. 15-25 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KT
FOR TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  25  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  48  24  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  51  30  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  26  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  44  21  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
P28  50  24  55  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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