Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220908

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
308 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Water vapor and radar mosaic showed our storm system pulling away
from the southwest Kansas region fairly quickly. As of 0850z, the
deformation zone with light to moderate rain was centered across
Barber County. We will continue the trend of rapidly decreasing POPs
through 12z. The strongest MSLP gradient with the surface low was
across the Texas Panhandle overnight, and this too will shift
quickly off to the east. That said, there will be enough of a
gradient off the surface to around 850mb that will help keep winds
up in the breezy category through much of the day -- 10 to 20 mph.

The airmass behind this storm system is not all that cold, and any
very subtle cold advection will be masked by downslope as the 850-
700mb trajectories will be very much downslope off the southern
Wyoming high terrain. As a result, with abundant sunshine, we should
see temperatures top out around 50 just about everywhere across west
central and southwest Kansas...with some lower to mid 50s in the Red
Hills of south central KS.

Tonight should be uneventful with a mostly clear sky. Winds should
be quite light at 5 to 8 mph, and should allow temperatures to drop
down into the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Not much has changed in the overall thinking for the upcoming work
week regarding track and strength of the next storm system. It still
looks like the track will be far enough north to prevent even much
if any precipitation even along I-70. Ahead of the storm on Monday,
there should be a nice southwesterly downslope surge, and the ECMWF
was followed for temperatures, and have adjusted far southwest
Kansas up in collaboration with WFO PUB and GLD. Liberal could touch
mid 60s even with any incipient cirrus clouds. Other than that,
winds were collaboratively increased (Tues through Wed) to add more
CONSMOS guidance weight, since they were stronger, and makes a
little more meteorological sense given a sub-990mb surface low
tracking across the Central Plains.

After this storm passes by mid-week, we will remain in fairly cool
air with 500mb heights staying quite low as the longwave trough
remains in place across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The end
of the forecast period will have daytime and overnight temperatures
right around the climatological average (highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s and lows around 20)


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Light rain will slowly dissolve through the overnight hours as the
upper low responsible will pull away from the western plains.
Flight category will remain VFR at GCK, DDC, and HYS terminals
through the period. Winds will remain north to northwest and
continue in the 12 to 15 knot range at DDC and GCK...a little
weaker at HYS farther away from the low. No major change in wind
speed and direction is forecast through the day Sunday.


DDC  50  28  57  35 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  49  25  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  27  66  36 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  50  25  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  28  57  35 /  40   0   0   0




SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.