Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231646
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1146 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Surface high pressure will continue to be a fairly significant
influence on western Kansas sensible weather through tonight. The
1020mb surface high center will continue to slowly push off to the
east, however the low level flow pattern will remain
anticyclonically-curved as it slowly begins to veer more to the
southeast. Wind speeds will be strongest today in the far west
near the Colorado border as a leeside trough starts to develop in
eastern Colorado. There should be some isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms along the lee trough axis well to our west
in Colorado, and given how weak the upper level flow pattern is,
none of this convective activity should reach the KS border
through tonight.

As the surface high loses its influence on the low level flow
field, we will begin to draw in some higher moisture in the form
of 61-64 degF surface dewpoints along/west of U83. There may be
some fog development 09-12Z Thursday morning, but confidence in
this is not all that great, so we won`t be carrying it in the
official forecast for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

On Thursday, we will be watching a subtle shortwave trough moving
into northeastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado, which
should help enhance the low level leeside trough. There is a
better opportunity for more widespread convection along the
leeside trough from eastern New Mexico/western Texas Panhandle up
through far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas. POPs
will be on the increase Thursday Night, but since the mid-upper
flow is so weak (10-15 knots or less at 500mb), the eastward
progression of any thunderstorm activity will be very slow.
Highest POPs in the grids will generally be U283 corridor and
points west to the Colorado border Thursday Night. This weak wave
will move out into western Kansas on Friday, but it will be moving
into a more stable lower troposphere, and so convective prospects
later in the day do not look overly great, except perhaps in far
western Kansas where low level convergence should be strongest
along the old remnants of the lee trough.

Going beyond Friday into the weekend, it certainly looks like
temperatures will remain fairly seasonal at or slightly below
normal as the synoptic scale pattern becomes more northwesterly
across the Central Plains. In this pattern, low level convergence
will be weak as the overall pressure gradient should be fairly
weak. It is difficult to see any real formidable
precipitation/severe weather chances in a pattern like this,
although anytime there is northwest flow across western Kansas in
the warm season, whether it be late May, June, July, or now in
August, we need to watch for at least some isolated strong/severe
storms -- especially if a minor jet streak/shortwave trough
ripples through the pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight with
mostly clear skies. Winds will generally be from the south
southeast at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  60  86  63 /   0   0  10  30
GCK  84  62  86  63 /   0  10  20  50
EHA  83  62  82  62 /   0  10  30  40
LBL  84  62  86  64 /   0  10  10  40
HYS  85  60  89  65 /   0   0  10  30
P28  85  59  86  65 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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