Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 230700
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014
...Updated short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014
An upper level trough crossing New Mexico early this morning will
move out into the Central High Plains during the afternoon. 00z
NAM and 00z GFS were both in decent agreement that this upper
level system will move into central Kansas between 00z Sunday and
06z Sunday. Given moisture and mid level instability ahead of this
system am unable to completely rule out a few afternoon
thunderstorms as this upper level disturbance crosses western
Kansas. Late day CAPE values will range from 1000 to 2000 j/kg,
however 0-6km shear is forecast to be less than 25knots so any
thunderstorm which may develop late today/early this evening is
not expected to be severe. A few storms however may produce gusty
winds up to 50 mph.
Temperatures this afternoon will be a little tricky based on
cloud cover potential ahead of the upper level trough as it
crosses western Kansas during the day. At this time given several
hours of afternoon sun, the 850mb to 700mb temperatures from the
NAM and GFS at 00z Sunday, and the forecast mixing height will
stay close to the latest MET, MAV, and CONShort guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014
Hot temperatures and periodic tstorm chances will continue for the extended
period. On Sunday, a weak front will move across the region, although
temperature advection associated with the front is not that strong.
The net result is continued temperatures in the 90s. A few thunderstorms
may develop towards the afternoon and evening hours along the front.
This front will stall out across the region towards the beginning of
the next business week. The ECMWF does continue the trend of keeping
at least 2/3rds of the CWA in the warm sector, so not confident on
much of a cool down in averaging the area as a whole. Tstorms during
this period will remain isolated/widely scattered. The highest chance
for storms is during the middle portion of next week as a trof with
upper level dynamics moves across the western Kansas. We could also
see the "coolest" temperatures Wednesday/Thursday, but really, temperatures
will be slightly below or near normal. Beyond that, stuck with the allblend
temperatures. The 12Z ECMWF would suggest slightly cooler temperatures
than compared to the official grids to close out the next business week.
This would not last long though, as warm air advection returns ahead
of the next synoptic trof approaching from the northwest.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014
Scattered convection will gradually taper off through the predawn
hours as the right exit region of an upper level jet lifts north
towards the Nebraska border. 00z NAM BUFR soundings indicating
that ceilings overnight and early Saturday will be between 7000ft
and 15000ft AGL. A trough of low pressure will be located near the
Colorado border during the day on Saturday which will keep the
surface winds southerly across western Kansas. Wind speeds will
increase into the 15 to 20knot range by late morning.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 97 71 94 69 / 10 20 10 20
GCK 95 67 93 67 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 94 66 93 67 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 97 68 95 69 / 10 10 20 20
HYS 96 70 94 68 / 20 20 10 20
P28 99 74 98 70 / 20 10 20 20