Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230924
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
324 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST INTO IOWA, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS ROTATING SOUTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW EARLY
THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AT THIS TIME. 00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOW THE
AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z
AND THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE REDEVELOPING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND TO THE
NORTHEAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE AREAS EAST OF A WAKEENEY TO NESS
CITY TO LARNED LINE SHOULD SEE THE MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT
THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND
AN INCH. AREAS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS
OF A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES TOWARD CENTRAL
KANSAS MAY STAY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THAT
AREA ACCORDINGLY. THE SNOW RAIN/SNOW SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING THIS
EVENING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE HIGH WIND EVENT POTENTIAL FOR FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY TIGHT
HEIGHT GRADIENT SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR
WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MIXING OUT UP TO NEARLY 750
MILLIBARS WITH 50 KNOTS WINDS INDICATED AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. IF THIS OCCURS WE COULD SEE SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
60 MPH IN THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. WITH THAT IN
MIND, HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR TODAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY
HOURS BASED ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ENDING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE AROUND
AND WEST OF GARDEN CITY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS
SHOW VERY LOW AND MID LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS THE RIDGING
ALOFT SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN WE`VE
HEDGED THE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COLDER NAM LOWS AS WINDS
SLACKEN, AND SKIES BECOME COMPLETELY CLEARED DURING THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND EACH DAY TO HIGHER HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ON LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS FROM 40S WEDNESDAY TO A BROADER
50S RANGE ON THURSDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS HAVE A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WHICH SUPPORTS DRIVING ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOR FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING WHEN LOWS WILL BE BACK
IN THE MID TEENS. HOWEVER AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED BACK
TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE BETTER
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY IN WESTERN KS WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE
25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS
RANGE WILL BE AT GARDEN CITY. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. VSBYS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS
ESPECIALLY AROUND HAYS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  23  43  26 /  50  20   0   0
GCK  34  18  43  23 /  50  10   0   0
EHA  35  21  45  23 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  36  20  44  24 /  30  10   0   0
HYS  35  21  40  25 /  50  20   0   0
P28  40  26  41  25 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD


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