Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 301113
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

850-HPA WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WAA INDUCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE THERMAL FIELDS BEGIN TO BROADEN
WITH WEAKENING WAA. STUCK WITH THE WRF-ARW SOLUTION, WHICH HAS THE HIGHEST
POPS THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN EAST/WEST LINE BISECTING DODGE
CITY. AGAIN, THERE MIGHT BE A MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE NEXT QUESTION IS FOR ADDITIONAL RENEWED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME AND NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS
AREA, HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE MIGHT BE PRETTY WELL WORKED OVER AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. THUS, DID NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH POP VALUES AND LEFT
IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. FOR TEMPERATURES, BOISE VERIFICATION REVEALS
A POOR VERIFICATION RECORD WITH SEVERAL MODEL CLUSTERS SUFFERING FROM
A HIGH BIAS. WITH ALL THE RECENT RAINS, FEEL THAT MOISTURE FLUXES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. AS SUCH, HAVE GONE WITH A MIDDLE TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER SOLUTION WITH WIDESPREAD 80S FOR HIGHS. MINIMUMS HEADING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FOR FRIDAY, IF THIS IS GOING TO BE ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION, IT SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THIS
IDEA IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. I DO HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
TOWARDS ELKHART, WITH VALUES TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS WITH
THE PREVIOUS DAY, WENT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE SOLUTION
GIVEN THE SHOWN BIAS IN THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION OUTPUT SOLUTIONS.
FEEL THE NAM AND PARTICULARLY THE GFS ARE OUT TO LUNCH AND ARE WAY TOO
WARM GIVEN THE MOISTURE FLUXES THAT ARE ANTICIPATED FROM RECENT RAINS.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS JUST A BIT. HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S FOR
MAXIMUMS. FOR THE WEEKEND, IF THERE IS GOING TO BE CONVECTION, IT SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL COVER THE MESOSCALE
PATTERN FOR NOW. SUNDAY COULD BE MORE DRY FOR THE REGION AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS AGAIN
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MINOR SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, INDUCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT. BEYOND THAT, THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL, WHICH FAVORS SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THE SUPERBLEND POPS IN THE EXTENDED LOOK FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SOME SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  66  89  65 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  87  65  89  64 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  86  63  87  64 /  40  20  30  20
LBL  86  66  88  67 /  40  20  20  20
HYS  88  63  91  66 /  10  10  10  10
P28  86  68  88  69 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...KRUSE


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