Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 190725
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
225 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017
...Updated Fire Weather...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017
Breezy and mild this morning, with south winds gusting near 30 mph
at times and dewpoints holding well into the 50s. Scattered cirrus
with a strong low level jet through sunrise, feeding elevated
thunderstorms over NE KS. With elevated moisture and mixing,
temperatures will struggle to fall below 60 degrees through
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, as strong thermal
ridge pushes into SW KS ahead of approaching cold front. Afternoon
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. SW winds will be gusty
for a few hours this morning, but winds will weaken during the
afternoon hours as surface cyclone deepens over the western CWA
and pressure gradient weakens.
Cold front sweeps quickly through SW KS this evening, with gusty
NE winds. Some gusts of 30-40 mph may occur with the initial
fropa. Convergence on the frontal boundary is expected to yield
scattered thunderstorms developing around 7 pm across/near the
NE counties, with convection subsequently spreading south through
the SE counties through early Thursday morning. Forecasted
CAPE/shear appear supportive of supercells with the initial
development, with large hail the primary threat. Storms should
attempt to grow upscale into one or two clusters as the frontal
boundary pushes them south, at which time damaging wind gusts
would become an increasing threat across the SE counties.
Uncertain how far west thunderstorms will backbuild along the
front this evening, but best guess is the severe threat will
remain east of a Wakeeney-Jetmore-Ashland line. Have noticed that
the 00z GFS builds convection all the way back to Dodge City this
evening. A tornado or two is possible this evening with the
initial discrete development over the far NE zones (Ellis, Rush,
Pawnee, Stafford counties). Otherwise, breezy NE winds will usher
in a cooler, drier and more stable airmass tonight with lows
Thursday morning ranging from the mid 40s NW to the mid 50s along
the Oklahoma border.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017
...Yet another beneficial rainfall on the way to SW Kansas...
Thursday...A spectacular spring day in the post-frontal airmass,
with sunshine, cooler highs near 70, and a diminishing NE breeze.
Increasing clouds Thursday night and Friday morning, as vigorous
shortwave dives into Utah. Given moist upslope flow and increasing
forcing for ascent arriving from the west, high confidence in low
clouds, scattered light rain showers, drizzle or fog by sunrise
Friday...Rain. After waffling a bit yesterday, model agreement is
superb on tonight`s 00z run regarding storm intensity and
placement on Friday. All models now carve out a closed low in SE
Colorado Friday morning, and track it directly over SW KS during
the day. Numerous rain showers will result, with embedded thunder
and the rain heavy at times. Model consensus on rainfall amounts
is in the 0.50-1.0 inch range, although precipitation will be
showery so there will be some variability. Warm sector of this
cyclone will remain well south of SW Kansas, with no threat of
significant severe weather this far north. Some elevated marginal
hail is possible near the upper low track, and nearest the frontal
boundary, across the far SE counties Friday afternoon.
Temperatures on Friday will essentially go nowhere, in the upper
40s and lower 50s, with thick clouds, rain and NE winds.
Model guidance continues to depict a progressive system, with the
00z ECMWF placing the closed low in eastern Kansas as soon as 7 am
Saturday. All rainfall is expected to be over by sunrise Saturday.
North winds, decreasing clouds, and temperatures below normal with
highs near 60.
Saturday night/Sunday morning...Frost/freeze potential continues
to be monitored. Radiational cooling looks to be strong at sunrise
Sunday, with a 1025 mb surface high directly over SW KS under dry
NW flow aloft. Model blended temps in the mid to upper 30s were
accepted, but temperatures near 30 are quite possible in low-lying
Sunday and Monday...Dry with a rapid warming trend.
00z GFS forecasts...yet another...significant rain event next
Wednesday, about a week from today.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017
VFR expected at all airports through this TAF period. A strong low
level jet will continue across SW KS through sunrise, with
SW 850 mb winds near 55 kts. Low level wind shear will continue
areawide through sunrise. Gusty south winds overnight will veer
SW and remain gusty at 15-25 kts for a few hours Wednesday
morning. SW winds will weaken during the daylight hours Wednesday
as surface low pressure develops over SW KS, reducing the pressure
gradient. A cold front is expected to reach HYS by 00z Thu, and
the remaining airports by 03z Thu. An abrupt shift to NE winds
will accompany this frontal passage, with gusts of 30-35 kts.
Expecting thunderstorms to develop along this frontal boundary
near HYS around 00z, and perhaps near/east of DDC by 03z.
Mentioned VCTS/CB for HYS/DDC during the evening hours.
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017
Very warm temperatures are expected this afternoon, with most
locations in the upper 80s and lower 90s. This will drive afternoon
min RH values into the 13-20% range across the western zones,
however, winds will weaken during the day and remain well below
red flag criteria.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 88 51 70 49 / 0 30 0 50
GCK 90 49 69 46 / 0 10 0 50
EHA 88 50 70 49 / 0 0 0 40
LBL 91 54 72 50 / 0 0 0 50
HYS 85 48 68 47 / 20 20 0 20
P28 85 54 71 51 / 10 40 10 60