Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 151850
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

A strong winter storm will continue to impact southwest and central
Kansas tonight through early Monday as short range models indicate a
strong closed off upper level low lifting northeast across the Texas
Panhandle into eastern Kansas during the period. Ample moisture will
continue to wrap up into an associated surface low as it moves up into
eastern Kansas while an attendant frontal boundary provides sufficient
forcing/lift across central and portions of western Kansas. Taking
into consideration recent radar trends, along with vertical sounding
profiles and surface temperatures remaining at or just below freezing,
intermittent freezing rain will continue this evening through early
Monday morning. Based on most short range model QPF signals, another
tenth to a quarter inch of ice accumulation will be possible overnight,
moreso on elevated surfaces with surface temperatures hovering closer
to 30F. Slick roads and highways can still be expected however. A mix
of sleet/snow will be possible across west central and extreme southwest
Kansas toward early Monday morning as colder air begins to filter
southward into the area. Could see snow accumulations upward of 1 to
4 inches by Monday afternoon before precip chances dissipate late
Monday.

As mentioned earlier, look for temperatures to hover in the mid 20s(F)
to near 30F tonight with prevailing overcast skies and intermittent
precipitation. Highs are only expected to reach up into the 30s(F)
Monday afternoon as precip chances slowly dwindle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

A trough of warm air aloft will continue to produce precipitation
on the west side of the upper level cyclone Monday morning, and
the precipitation is likely to persist into the afternoon hours in
north central Kansas. North winds will increase to 15-20 mph
Monday, and the additional wind loading may cause further damage
to trees and power lines. Mostly cloudy skies and a persistent
cold pool in the low levels of the atmosphere will keep
temperatures in the 30s for highs Monday. Strong west to southwest
flow perpendicular to the northern Rockies Tuesday will result in
evolution of a plume of warm air in the lee of the mountains, and
Wednesday and Thursday should be quite mild with temperatures well
above climatological averages. Slightly cooler air may move into
western Kansas Friday as a vigorous upper level trough moves into
the Central Plains. There may be some showers Friday with the
approach of the upper level trough. There will be another chance
for precipitation Saturday night and Sunday as another upper level
trough digs into the central part of the country. Relatively mild
weather will continue since the arctic air will be confined to
Alaska and part of the Northwest Territories.

A blocky pattern with upper level high pressure near Hudson Bay
and an upper level cyclone closing off under the upper level high
will evolve next weekend. The GFS and ECMWF differ on evolution of
the deep cyclone that approaches the west coast early next week.
The GFS tries to amplify the upper level low in the central part
of the country while the ECMWF maintains a mean long wave trough
in the western United States. A coherent upper level divergent
pattern is moving rapidly eastward across the western hemisphere
and should enhance tropical thunderstorms in the western Indian
Ocean next week. Enhanced thunderstorms in this area favor mean
troughing in the western United States more like the ECMWF
solution. As such, the slower ECMWF solution seems more physically
reasonable, although confidence in how the atmosphere will behave
in blocky environments always is low.

It still appears likely that upper level high pressure will build
in Alaska and northwest Canada in late January and that several
invasions of arctic air will occur from late January into the
first part of February. The coldest air probably will move into
the northern Plains and the Upper Midwest, but Kansas will not be
spared.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

IFR cigs will prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites through early
Monday morning as low level stratus associated with intermittent
freezing rain persists across southwest and central Kansas during
the period. Easterly winds 5 to 10kt will persist across the region
through early this evening as surface low pressure in eastern New
Mexico begins to move slowly east-northeast into the Texas Panhandle
early in the period. Winds will then turn northerly 10 to 20kt later
tonight as the surface low lifts further northeast across northern
Oklahoma into eastern Kansas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  28  35  26 / 100 100  70  10
GCK  31  27  35  24 / 100 100  70  20
EHA  32  26  38  23 / 100 100  50  20
LBL  33  27  38  26 / 100 100  50  10
HYS  32  27  34  25 / 100 100  90  20
P28  35  32  40  27 / 100 100  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...JJohnson



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