Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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695
FXUS63 KDDC 192030
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
230 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Boundary layer moisture continues to increase this afternoon, as
observed with dew points across our south central Kansas counties
making it to the 50 degree threshold. Fog and expanding stratus
could redevelop just as the loss of isolation begins across that
region. Additionally, the NAM family of models has been in general
agreement with spreading showers and embedded thunderstorms north
across the area from western OK around 00 UTC and though central
Kansas though midnight, with precipitation generally ending after
that. As the precipitation moves off to the east towards early
Monday morning, the HRRR at this time developing another round of
advection fog through the highway 183 corridor, which may cause
travel problems in those areas as was the case last night and this
morning. With a wave moving through the region, the fog won`t linger
anywhere near as long as it did this morning, as westerly downslope
surface winds develop by around 12 UTC Monday.

On Monday, an 850 mb ridge shifts across western Kansas with breezy
northwest surface winds preceding light winds heading into the
evening and overnight. Temperatures  may be similar to what we`ve seen
on Sunday. The initial 850 mb cold pool will quickly be replaced
with adiabatically warmed air with NAM taking surface temperatures
into the 60s by mid afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Moderation right back into the climatological abnormally warm regime
through mid week is expected starting Tuesday. Looking like 80
degrees can`t be ruled out any of the days Tuesday through Thursday
near the OK line. The next wave continues to be advertised by the
models by late Thursday and Friday timeframe, with a chance for snow
and rainshowers precluding a colder and windier Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Ceilings rapidly improving this afternoon before a return to MVFR
and IFR cigs in the DDC and HYS terminals later this evening and
much of the overnight. A shortwave moving into the region will be
the impetus or showers and embedded thunderstorms moving into south
central Kansas in the evening through midnight, which  may impact
the DDC/HYS terminals. Less likely at GCK, but not to be completely
ruled out. Gradient winds around 15G25kt will pick up out of the
south and remain sustained overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Hamilton and Kearney counties were added to the Fire Weather Watch
primarily covering northwest KS and northeastern CO for Monday
afternoon. Any combination of slightly warmer temperatures or
drier dew points than the models are showing could easily send
the area (or more) into the red flag criteria for around 3 hours
or so late Monday afternoon. Notably the ECMWF has much drier dew
points than our current mesoscale model runs. Other than that, dry
fuels and breezy winds it the afternoon would discourage outdoor
burning across the entire area west of highway 283.





&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  70  36  75 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  40  67  33  76 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  39  67  35  76 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  40  69  33  77 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  48  68  37  75 /  30   0   0   0
P28  52  72  39  74 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell



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