Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
152 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

TODAY WILL BE A DAY OF LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW, WITH A LITTLE WIND.
A COLD FRONT CROSSED SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH STRATUS CLOUDS FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. MOST CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN IN THE BKN-0OVC010-116 RANGE, WITH LOWER CIGS IN THE LIC
AND ITR SITES OVC006. I HAVE NO DOUBTS THE STEADY CAA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL LOWER CIGS IN OUR CWA INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BEFORE
12Z TODAY. THERE IS STILL A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, AND NORTH WINDS WILL BLOW AT 15G25 MPH
MOST OF TODAY. A RATHER SHARP AMPLIFIED TROUGH JUST WEST OF US
OVER COLORADO WILL SWING EAST AND ADD SOME UPPER LIFT FOR SNOWFALL
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE INHERITED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST IN OUR WEST
AND NORTHWEST. THE GFS MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, WITH 4 INCHES
PREDICTED. WILL KEEP THE SAME TIME FRAME GOING AS WELL, WITH THE
FAR WEST GETTING SOME SNOW THIS MORNING, AND THEN THE SNOW
SPREADING EAST LATER THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATION PAST 4 PM CST, BUT IT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
ADVISORY BY THEN. SO HAVE LEFT THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP
TO THE DAY SHIFT. OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY TOWARDS THE EAST,
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

THE HIGHER LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING, AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE JUST A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW IN
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES, SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LARNED TO ASHLAND.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MAINLY FLURRIES WILL LINGER WEST OF HIGHWAY
283, WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FORESEEN THERE EARLY
TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND
TONIGHT, THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DRAMATICALLY, RANGING
FROM 13 TO 14F DEGREES IN THE HAMILTON, SCOTT CITY AND TREGO
COUNTY CORRIDOR, TO THE 17 TO 19F DEGREE RANGE FROM HAYS TO DODGE
CITY TO LIBERAL, AND NEAR THE 20F DEGREE MARK SOUTHEAST OF A PRATT
TO MEADE COUNTY LINE. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD START OUT FROM THE
NORTH AT 12 TO 14 MPH, THEN DIMINISH TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10
MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER NORTH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ANY LINGERING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES. PRECIP CHANCES MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SETTING UP A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AS COLD ARCTIC AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LOWERING H85
TEMPERATURES UNDER 5C BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS
TO THE LOWER 30S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD
COVER AND AREAS OF SNOWPACK LINGER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE
LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS DRAWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
UP INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 30S(F) TO NEAR 40F
IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH, CIGS WILL LOWER AND WINDS
INCREASE. CIGS MAY GO DOWN QUICKLY TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 07Z TO
08Z, AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT 15G25KT. TOWARDS
15Z, WINDS WILL ABATE TO NORTH AT 14 KNOTS, AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY TO OVC011.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  18  30  17 /  50  60   0   0
GCK  28  14  29  16 /  70  60   0   0
EHA  30  16  29  16 /  70  30   0   0
LBL  30  19  30  16 /  50  40   0   0
HYS  30  16  28  16 /  70  70   0   0
P28  41  21  32  19 /  30  70  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO
4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074-
075-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE



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