Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290644
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1244 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ABOVE THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED RANGE. INITIALLY COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RECENT
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD THEN COME TO AN END AS LOWS FALL THROUGH
THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN.  THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN
CONTINUE TO BRING IN THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPACTS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS/AND ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS SUPPORT A RELATIVELY WARM SOLUTION
WITH THE 700 MB LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA, OR
SIMPLY AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT PHASE OF THE EVENT
LOOKS MOST LIKELY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH ARE INDICATING
PARTICULARLY HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S GOING THROUGH
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, WHILE THE LATEST MOS IS ALSO TRENDING
WARMER WITH THE SURFACE LOWS. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL METEOGRAMS HAVE
RECENTLY SIGNIFICANTLY CUT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT TO LESS THAN
THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WORST CASE SCENARIO. GFS COBB
SNOW OUTPUT SUGGESTS WELL UNDER A HALF INCH EVEN IN THE COLDER POST
FRONTAL AIR LATE SATURDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND COLDER CONDITIONS  OF SUNDAY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING  WHERE UNCERTAINTY SPREAD RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE BACK CLOSER TOWARD
THE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNRISE. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 12 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO OVER 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  27  47  33 /   0   0  10  70
GCK  50  28  47  33 /   0   0  20  60
EHA  49  32  44  33 /   0   0  50  60
LBL  52  30  44  33 /   0   0  40  70
HYS  47  25  47  33 /   0   0  10  70
P28  52  26  46  34 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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