Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211952
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
252 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Regional 88-D radar showed and area of showers continuing to spread
northeast across the Texas panhandle into the Meade and Comanche
county areas. This trend is  expected to continue through the
afternoon. Although the reflectivity appears rather light, there
should be potential for light to brief moderate rain rates under
this southwest to northeast oriented max in precipitable water
(around 1.8"). Between the precipitation and cloudiness persisting
over the south central Kansas counties, and the  eclipse which
accounted for a 2 to 3 degree temperature drop this afternoon,
keeping a decent temperature trend as been difficult. However there
is a dry slot on satellite expanding slowly northeast across extreme
se Colorado. This subsident zone should ensure a dry rest of the
daytime hours in the west, while scattered showers expand north
east through south cental Kansas.

Another chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
follow this evening as the 850mb front drops south into Kansas. The
overall coverage will probably be limited by the loss of maximum
moisture and theta-e transport by that time.  However the Hi-Res
ARW/NMM and HRRR continue to hold on to the potential toward late
evening and beyond.

Any areas of fog that develop over south central Kansas overnight
likely will not last as the increasing northerly surface winds
increase mixing, and the model fields generally do not favor at this
time. Widespread low level cloudiness will rapidly advance across
most of the area with breezy northeast winds during the morning
hours, and clearing across the north in the afternoon. A dry push of
boundary layer air characterized by dewpoints in the 50s and upper
40s Tuesday night will will advance into the lower plains, creating
a zone of baroclinicity immediately south of our area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

By midweek, the GFS displays another weak northwest flow pattern,
where any little weak midlevel impulse could bring showers or storms
daily, especially after peak heating. the same general idea is
supported in the ECMWF fields. The model consensus maintains a
somewhat seasonal temperatures  spread, with highs just a few degrees
below normal for late August, in the mid 80s, and lows generally in
the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

VFR conditions for the time period.Spotty showers and mid level
clouds will continue throughout the area for this afternoon.
Later tonight a cold front will move through the region switching
the winds from the south to the north by mainly 12Z. It could also
produce a few isolated storms mainly for around GKC, DDC, and
HYS. Ceilings are expected to drop after the cold front passage
from 12Z-18Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  84  58  85 /  30  10  10   0
GCK  66  85  58  84 /  20  10   0   0
EHA  66  80  61  83 /  30  20  20  10
LBL  68  83  61  85 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  67  84  57  85 /  30   0   0   0
P28  71  87  61  85 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Tatro


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