Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261114
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
614 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A SIMILAR SETUP FOR CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF NIGHTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A GLACE AT THE NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS SUPPORT GOOD CHANCES FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING/GUSTY OUTFLOW PRODUCING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE
OVERALL SIGNAL SUGGESTS AS PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE LAST EPISODE, IN
WHICH THE CONVECTION BECOME OUTFLOW  DOMINANT AFTER JUST A FEW
HOURS OF SLOW PROPAGATION. THIS WILL REFLECT IN THE AREAL POPS
CERTAINLY AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT. THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHT`S
CONVECTION  MAY BE A FACTOR TO CONSIDER LATER TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES, HOWEVER THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSE IN THE
MODELS ACROSS THE KS/CO LINE SHOULD TURN SURFACE WINDS SOUTHERLY
LATER IN THE DAY. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND INSOLATION
WARMS UP THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, THE HEAT INDICES WILL GAIN
BECOME UNCOMFORTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AN ADVISORY WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES
AND PERHAPS EXPANDED.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THERE WILL BE LITTLE EXPECTED OVERALL CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROPERTIES THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY, BEFORE THE REGION BECOMES
INFLUENCED BY THE NEXT PACIFIC SOURCE SURFACE HIGH. EVEN THEN, THE
GFS CONTINUES TO ONLY INDICATE BRIEF REDUCTION IN THE LAYER MOISTURE
AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOME FLATTENED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
HE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH RAPIDLY RETURNING  AIR PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE SOUTHERN  PLAINS. DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
TO THE NORTH, WHILE MODEL PWAT`S CONTINUE AROUND 1.5"+ ACROSS MUCH
OF THE DODGE CITY WARNING AREA WELL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
BROAD UPPER NORTHWEST  FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD BE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR EVENING/OVERNIGHT  THUNDERSTORM  DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET CYCLE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH  THE GFS IS HINTING AT
THURSDAY  AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. IN THE MEANTIME, THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD
PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INDEPENDENT OF TIME OF DAY,
PROVIDING A STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH DECREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHELRY DIRECTION AROUND
10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  72 102  74 /  20  20  10   0
GCK  99  71 101  73 /  40  50   0  10
EHA  99  70 101  72 /  20  30  10  10
LBL 100  72 102  73 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  99  72 102  75 /  30  60  10   0
P28 101  75 102  75 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ030-031-066-081-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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