Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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262
FXUS63 KDDC 252040
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
340 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...Updated short and long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

A broad upper level low pressure trough was currently moving through
the central and southern Rockies this afternoon. A shortwave trough
that ejected from the main trough Monday night had lifted into
the Midwestern states. This pushed a surface low east across
northern Oklahoma today. A trailing cold front had pushed through
all of southwest and south central Kansas by midday with cooler
air and some stratus spreading into the area behind the front. Areas
of light rain showers were gradually developing over far southwest
Kansas and points farther southwest this afternoon in association
with the shortwave trough. Farther west, more widespread light rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms were developing along the Front
Range of Colorado in association with the main upper trough.

The main upper trough is forecast to move out over the central
Plains tonight and east of the region on Wednesday. Another
shortwave trough was currently moving out of the base of the main
upper trough was located over far northeastern New Mexico. This
shortwave will lift east northeast across southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma this evening. Latest model solutions from the
NAM12 as well as the HIRES ARW/NMM show scattered areas of
rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms spreading east across far
southwest into south central Kansas this evening. Farther west,
the models show the showers and thunderstorms along the Front
Range continuing to congeal and gradually shift into southeast
Colorado and far southwest Kansas tonight. Chances for
precipitation have been adjusted to keep the likely pops in the
far southwest with chance pops across the remainder of southwest
into south central Kansas tonight. The southwest stands to receive
the highest qpf amounts, up to around 30-40 hundredths of an inch,
with lesser amounts farther east. Precipitation should be coming
to an end by Wednesday morning as the main wave moves east.

Overnight low temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s still look
reasonable as cold air advection continues overnight. As the
southern High Plains surface low kicks eastward tonight, northerly
winds will increase and become gusty again by late evening.

Wednesday will be another cool day with highs in the upper 50s to
low 60s. Cloudiness around in the morning should gradually clear
as subsidence behind the upper trough builds into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Another shortwave trough will move out over the central High Plains
on Thursday. A warm front could lift back into western Kansas on
Thursday. Latest model guidance does not look too impressive with
low level moisture return and instability does not look all that
great. The GFS progs up to 1000 j/kg of MUCAPE in a narrow
corridor of southwest Kansas Thursday afternoon so there could be
a brief window of opportunity for a marginally severe storm but
confidence in this is low.

Toward the weekend, the medium range models continue to show
another trough digging and closing off into an upper low into the
Rockies and closing off somewhere in the vicinity of the Four
Corners region by Saturday morning. Periods of rain are expected
to develop across the central High Plains Friday night and could
continue through Sunday before exiting the High Plains as the
upper low moves northeast of the region. It appears that this
system will have sufficient cold air for rain to mix with or
change over to snow over west central and parts of southwest
Kansas Saturday into Saturday night. At this time it is hard to
pinpoint any potential snowfall accumulation given uncertainties
in model solutions, warm ground, etc, but would not be surprised
to see some locations seeing some brief light accumulations
by Saturday night.

Quiet and mild weather will return to the area by early next week as
the upper low moves east and warmer air begins to filter back in.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

MVFR stratus that developed behind a cold front over central and western
Kansas this morning is expected to slowly rise into the VFR category
later this afternoon. An upper level disturbance moving out of New
Mexico will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly
to the southwest Kansas terminals this evening. Will carry VCSH to
reflect this. Another surge of colder air will move through southwest
Kansas late this evening which will bring gusty north winds to the
area through the remainder of tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  59  39  64 /  50  10   0  30
GCK  36  61  39  65 /  50  10   0  40
EHA  38  62  42  69 /  60  10  10  20
LBL  39  63  41  70 /  60  10   0  30
HYS  37  58  36  57 /  30  10   0  50
P28  42  59  38  64 /  40  20   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard



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