Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290835
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
235 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND, THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MUCH MORE
ACTIVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SPECIFICALLY, BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE OVER THE COUNTRY TODAY WHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO ALASKA. A POTENT WAVE WITH
AN ASSOCIATED 130-KT JET STREAK RIPPLING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST HAS DISLODGED A LARGE CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR OUT OF CANADA
WITH THE FRONT ALREADY SITTING NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA BORDER
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH MOST OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BY MID MORNING ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF COLDER AIR WILL
NOT INVADE WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MAIN ISSUE INITIALLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SNOW IN RESPONSE TO SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. DESPITE THE SHALLOW NATURE OF ASCENT,
THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR WILL LOWER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE INTO
THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK.  THIS WILL PERMIT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THEN SPREAD FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES WILL BE LIGHT AND MOISTURE CONTENT LOW YET
POWDER-LIKE NATURE OF SNOW MAY PERMIT ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 56 BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER ISSUE AT
HAND IS VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES AS TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS COMBINE WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TO
BRING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. GIVEN BOTH THE
SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WIND CHILL POTENTIAL MENTIONED ABOVE, ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 56 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE ARCTIC INTRUSION WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
MINOR S/WV, SNOW WILL ALMOST BE A CERTAINTY THROUGH TUESDAY. I`VE
UPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY. THE QUESTION WILL BE AMOUNTS. I`M
ANTICIPATING HIGH RATIO`S SO WOULD EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF WESTERN AREAS DURING THE PERIOD STARTING LATE MONDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THE SNOW SHOULD BE FLUFFY SO A LITTLE
BLOWING WILL BE EXPECTED TOO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WITH THIS
AIRMASS. AS OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE CENTER OF THE COLD
WERE IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW RANGE SO THE SOURCE WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT
VERY COLD READINGS. I`VE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS, AND PERHAPS NOT
ENOUGH BUT THAT CAN ALSO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER. WITH 15-25 KT
WIND THE WIND CHILL INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH AT LEAST ADVISORY
CRITERIA. I WANT TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW AS THAT WON`T
BE UNTIL AT LEAST THE 4TH/5TH PERIODS.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED ATTENTION WILL BE TURNING TO A CLOSED SYSTEM
THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN U.S. WITH AN
ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK. EVENTUALLY THE LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
WEST BUT THE TIMING AND TRACK WILL BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL ALSO BE IN QUESTION SO NO NEED TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

BIG CHANGES HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS STARTING STARTING
LATER THIS MORNING AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH
THE REGION. INITIALLY THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TURNING QUICKLY TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KT ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LIGHT SNOW WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR
TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES PREVAILING OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30   3  10  -1 /  20  60  50  10
GCK  25   1   8  -3 /  50  70  60  10
EHA  27   2  10  -1 /  20  60  60  20
LBL  30   7  13   0 /  20  60  60  20
HYS  24   0   8  -4 /  60  60  40  10
P28  36  11  17   5 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-
074>079-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...AJOHNSON


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