Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250625
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
125 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Precip chances pick up a little later today as a weak upper level
trough begins to deepen as it digs southeastward across the Great
Basin into the Central and Southern Rockies, and in turn, setting
up an intensifying difluent southwest flow aloft across the
Western High Plains. Short range models show the surface low in
southeast Colorado pushing slowly eastward across southwest into
central Kansas early this morning as an attendant cold front to
the approaching upper level system begins to move into northwest
and west central Kansas. Although instability will be rather limited,
favorable dynamic support aloft combined with ample forcing along
the front may be enough to kick up a few showers later this
afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out,
but anything severe is unlikely with weak instability and less
than favorable shear profiles. The better chance for appreciable
rainfall will be later tonight as a series of stronger H5 vort
maxima cycle through the approaching trough axis and lift northeast
across southwest and central Kansas just as H85-7 frontogenetic
banding develops across the same general area. With model soundings
showing profiles saturating this evening from mid level moisture
advection, the chance for rain will increase, particularly near
and along the Oklahoma border where the better forcing is expected.

Cooler temperatures are likely today as an approaching cold front
pushes through much of western Kansas by early to mid afternoon.
Highs may struggle to reach the 60s(F) across west central Kansas,
especially with increased cloud cover likely. The 70s(F) are still
expected in south central Kansas before the front moves through
later this afternoon. Colder air filtering down into western Kansas
behind the front tonight will drop lows down into the 30s(F) across
west central and portions of southwest Kansas to the lower to mid
40s(F) in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

On Monday night, another stronger shortwave moves out of the Rockies
into the central and southern Plains. The mid levels of the atmosphere
moisten up by late afternoon into the evening hours ahead of this
wave. The models generally agree on an area of showers and thunderstorms
developing over southeast Colorado and into southwest Kansas during
the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of the convective allowing
models are hinting at updraft helicity swaths with a few of the storms.
Models may be picking up on the strong shear aloft but think that
the severe potential should diminish as CAPE values drop significantly
farther behind the front. Precipitation chances could linger into
Wednesday over south central Kansas before the upper wave moves
east of the area.

Wednesday into Thursday should be relatively quiet as weak shortwave
ridging moves over the central High Plains. Another shortwave trough
will be diving out of the central Rockies toward the central High
Plains on Thursday. Ahead of this wave, the surface front lifts
back north into western Kansas. Model soundings from the GFS show
another window of opportunity for a few severe storms along a Dighton-
Garden City-Dodge City-Ashland corridor as MUCAPE increases to near
1000 j/kg and shear values are around 50 kts. There could be some
fire weather issues over far southwest Kansas where deep layer
mixing and a dry airmass exist to the west of the front.

The next and strongest storm system develops toward the weekend as
an upper level low develops over the Four Corners region late Friday
night and then lifts to the east northeast into the weekend. The
models show some cold air pushing into far western Kansas on Saturday
into Saturday night. This could result in a rain/snow mix or a
changeover to snow over western portions of Kansas Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night before the precipitation ends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Tuesday
morning. Low level stratus will develop along and behind a cold
front pushing across northwest Kansas into central Kansas by mid
to late morning. MVFR cigs will be possible in the vicinity of
KHYS generally after 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
to persist at KGCK and KDDC into Tuesday afternoon. Light and
variable winds will persist across extreme southwest Kansas
overnight while a surface low remains anchored across southeast
Colorado. Meanwhile, east to southeasterly winds 10 to 20kt will
continue further east across eastern portions of southwest Kansas
into central Kansas. Northerly winds 15 to 25kt will develop
behind a cold front as it moves southeastward across western
Kansas mid to late Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  71  39  57 /   0  40  60  20
GCK  49  67  38  58 /   0  40  70  10
EHA  52  68  39  60 /   0  40  70  20
LBL  52  73  40  59 /   0  40  60  20
HYS  51  63  39  55 /   0  20  50  20
P28  56  78  44  56 /   0  20  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson


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