Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 122055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
355 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Quite the dramatic change in forecast for tomorrow. We have had to
drop the forecast temperatures tomorrow quite a bit, given colder
than earlier anticipated airmass coming in, and the front moving in
about 6 hours faster than previously thought. We took the SuperBlend
guidance for temperatures and adjusted them down using a blend of
the high resolution WRF and NAM models, which obviously handle High
Plains fronts and the airmasses behind them, much better than
global models and MOS guidance. The other mitigating factor for any
sort of warmup will be more cloud cover behind the front. We bumped
up the Sky grids to reflect at least mostly cloudy for particularly
north of Arkansas River and east of Hwy 83. Some of the lower end
models on temperatures are showing 21z temps still in the 50s across
portions of west central KS, so it`s possible a trend downward in
tomorrow temperatures could continue next forecast cycle tonight.
Meanwhile, Barber County (especially Kiowa) would be just ahead of
the front and potentially well into the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

With a faster and stronger front, the stalling out of the front will
now likely be farther south, and as such, precipitation chances up
in western/central KS are lowered. We should still see nocturnal
thunderstorm development 06-12z Saturday, but this will most likely
be widely scattered in nature, justifying mainly 20-30 POPs. Better
chances will be northeast of our forecast area up in north
central/northeast KS. The Saturday temperature forecast is quite a
bit uncertain, and does not reflect a likely sharp gradient which
will almost undoubtedly set up again somewhere across KS. This means
that some areas north of Arkansas River will see lower temperatures
than currently in the forecast. Highest POPs will continue across
south central KS, but best severe weather potential will be off to
the east into ICT and TOP CWAs.

As far as the wind forecast goes behind the front, have again had to
coordinate a substantial bump up in wind speeds over what the
SuperBlend gave. We should see a 6 hour period of 25 to 35 mph winds
and perhaps a brief gust around 55 mph where the highest pressure
rises occur. This secondary, stronger cold front push will also be a
bit quicker than previously thought, much like tomorrow`s front, so
these intense north winds may begin as early as late afternoon
Saturday, especially across west central KS -- likely impeding any
outdoor Saturday evening plans.

After this storm goes through, a much more pleasant Sunday is in
store as high pressure at the surface settles in. Very light winds
with highs around 60 for most areas, are in store for Sunday. We
will then see a rebound in temperatures through next week back into
the 70s as we enter a quiet flow regime devoid of frontal passages
and mainly south winds with a prolonged leeside trough of varying
intensity. There are hints of another major Pacific jet entering the
West Coast around 20-21 October, but it is far too soon to determine
how this will unfold and impact western Kansas weather going into
the following weekend (21-22 October).


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Friday
morning. South to southwesterly winds 15 to 25kt will persist across
western Kansas through late this afternoon as a lee side trough of
low pressure remains anchored near and along the Colorado border.
Winds will then subside this evening as a cold front approaching
from the northwest, pushes into extreme western Kansas late tonight.


DDC  55  66  57  79 /   0   0  20  20
GCK  50  65  53  76 /   0   0  20  10
EHA  54  69  56  81 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  55  71  59  82 /   0   0  20  10
HYS  52  62  53  72 /   0   0  30  30
P28  60  77  63  82 /   0  10  10  50




SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.