Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 152300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Main concern in the short term will be fog potential tonight. All
the short term high res models show rather substantial area of 1/4
mile or less visibility in post-frontal light upslope flow. The
front (although not really much of one, from a temperature
gradient perspective) will stall out with the winds gaining some
upslope component after dark. Lower 60s dewpoints in south central
and central KS will pool along the boundary and even begin to
slowly advect back to the northwest. Mostly clear sky and light
upslope component winds with trapped, high quality low level
moisture should lead to widespread development of fog as models
suggest. The grids will carry "Areas of fog", but widespread dense
fog will certainly be a possibility. The evening shift will need
to monitor observation trends and hourly HRRR for guidance and
further forecast adjustment. A dense fog advisory may be issued
later if confidence increases.

Going into Sunday, remnant fog and low level stratus will hang
around through late morning, per WRF and NAM12 models. This will
slow the warming potential up north, especially near Hays.
SuperBlend guidance has a high of 88 at Hays, and this may be a
bit optimistic, considering the aforementioned reasoning of low
clouds first half of the day. South of the front, forecast still
looks pretty good with widespread lower 90s forecast in classic
downslope scenario.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

The hottest day looks to be Monday in this synoptic pattern. In
fact, 850mb temperature from ECMWF would suggest surface
temperatures reaching 94 to 96F for a good portion of southwest KS
south of the Arkansas River, just ahead of an advancing Pacific
cold front -- which is usually when the low level thermal ridge
extends northeast immediately ahead of it. The mid 90s would
smash daily records across our area. The hottest temperature
recorded at Dodge City in the station history after October 15th
is 94 degrees (October 17, 1926). There is a very real chance at
tying or perhaps breaking that record.

After Monday, it will be back to fall temperatures with a fresh
Canadian airmass in place. The frontal passage will be a dry one,
though as the main polar jet will still be to our north through.
Another disturbance, though, quick on its heels will move in and
this will bring a better chance for precipitation, although even
that will be best farther north where the mid level frontogenetic
zone will reside. Much cooler low level temperatures will come in
behind the Wednesday/Thursday front, leading to increased freeze
potential over portions of southwest and west central KS by
Thursday and Friday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

High confidence in widespread fog formation tonight. Short term
models agree on this scenario, as surface winds gain an upslope
SE component and pool moisture along a residual frontal boundary.
Highest confidence in dense fog is at/near HYS, but there is
enough agreement and confidence to include a TEMPO group for
1/4 sm dense fog at DDC/GCK as well. Fog is most likely during
the 09-13z Sun timeframe. By 15z Sunday, VFR returns quickly.
Expect SW winds of 10-20 kts at DDC/GCK, with lighter winds at


Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

The Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
along/west of Liberal to Garden City to Scott City for Sunday. The
surface winds will be borderline, but with the relative humidity
forecast to be down to around 10 percent over this area for a few
hours. Mixing will be deep and feel there will at least be some
off and on gusts to 25 mph to justify the Red Flag Warning.

A larger area of Red Flag conditions will probably materialize on
Monday with stronger winds in the 850-700mb layer. The thermal
ridge will extend farther northeast as well, allowing the
afternoon RH to fall down to critical areas as far east as perhaps
a Kinsley to Coldwater line.


DDC  52  90  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  48  93  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  52  94  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  49  95  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  54  83  54  90 /   0  10   0   0
P28  61  89  62  93 /   0  10   0   0


Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ Sunday for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-080-084>089.



SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.