Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 231106
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
606 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Initially this morning, a few isolated showers may be found as
far east as the highway 283 corridor around 12z before
dissipation. Beyond that, another day of hot temperatures with
elevated heat indices (especially from Wakeeney-Hays to Medicine
Lodge) is in store before a cool surface boundary contributes to a
slight drop in highs by Sunday. The Heat Advisory has been
extended for one more afternoon in the eastern counties, where
temperatures shave been trending warmest, and may hit true
advisory criteria of 105 degrees without the help of elevated dew
points. By tonight, the week cold frontal boundary is modeled by
the NAM/WRF to move into northern-west central KS, providing a
convergence zone for thunderstorms to develop by early evening,
with locally heavy rain, lightning and strong gusty winds. Showers
and storms could continue though the night as well feeding on
steep mid level lapse rates.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The extended period will probably be not as hot, and even cooling
toward near normal highs for late July/almost early August. With
not as hot air aloft and persistent , generally zonal flow,
convection should be possible most late evenings during the
period. The EC indicates another shortwave and MCS activity across
the central and northern Plains on Tuesday night. By late week the
pattern evolves to a large upper high across the southwest states
into the rockies, with cyclonic flow aloft across the corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

A few isolated early morning thunderstorms will be possible,
mainly in the Garden City and Hays areas. Model soundings
indicating VFR conditions and surface observations earlier this
morning as this convection crossed northwest Kansas supports these
conditions. An outflow boundary will move south across portions of
western Kansas early this morning. This will result in a period of
northerly winds for a couple of hours behind this boundary.
Southerly winds at around 15 knots will return to western Kansas
by late morning. Late day thunderstorms will then be possible near
the Colorado border and some of these storms are expected to
spread east into the Garden City and Hays between 00z Sunday and
06z Sunday. Cloud bases with these storms are still forecast to be
at or above 6000ft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 102  73  98  70 /  10  10  40  30
GCK 102  70  96  69 /  20  20  30  30
EHA 101  71  98  69 /  20  20  40  30
LBL 104  72 100  70 /  20  10  30  40
HYS 104  72  94  69 /  50  20  30  20
P28 105  76 103  74 /  10   0  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-045-046-
065-066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.