Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 140603
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
103 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING WHILE THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY INCREASING THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, SUBSEQUENTLY DRAWING
INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A MODEST +70KT JET IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A REASONABLE CAP WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES
PICK UP A LITTLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS. AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WHILE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. AS A
RESULT, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL INCREASE,
ENHANCING WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F A POSSIBILITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT
WITH THE LOWER 60S(F) LIKELY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA WHILE A RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF
THE US AND CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
DAYTIME ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY
FARTHER WEST. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL HAVE A STABLE LAYER TO CONTEND WITH BEFORE STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. MODEL GFS/ECMWF MODEL QPF FIELDS KEEP THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE THE NAM
SHOWS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. WILL AT LEAST CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN
THE FORECAST.

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BELIEVE THAT THE GFS IS
OVERDONE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TRIMMED BACK CLOSER TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
CURRENT ECMWF IS SHOWING.

TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIGNAL OF ANOTHER
STRONG TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND PLOWING THROUGH THE
WEST COAST RIDGE BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE GFS HAS BEEN MAINTAINING AN
OPEN WAVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM
HAD THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF OVER COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY
NEXT SATURDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH AND/OR TIMING OF THE WAVE. THE EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION PUTS GIVES FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BUT OBVIOUSLY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY TURNING WINDS MORE
SOUTHERLY WHILE INCREASING UP TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT BY LATE
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  58  72  55 /   0  10  20  10
GCK  85  57  68  54 /   0  10  20  10
EHA  87  60  69  56 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  87  60  74  57 /   0  10  20  20
HYS  80  57  70  50 /   0  20  20  10
P28  85  65  80  57 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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