Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 301125
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK (EXCEPT THE BAUDETTE AND BEMIDJI AREA WHERE CLOUDS HAVE
ARRIVED FROM THE NORTH). WILL LEAVE THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT.

THE CLOUDS THAT HAVE MOVED INTO THE BAUDETTE AND BEMIDJI AREA WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (AND LACK OF FORCING).
UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THINKING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TEMPERATURES (AND FROST THIS MORNING) WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES.
00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR THIS
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ON SUNDAY.
ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY.

AHEAD OF A BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A
SHORTWAVE THAT COULD SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
FORCING WILL BE MOVING INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST AREAS DRY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SE ND
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES (NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON MONDAY). 00Z MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR PRECIP SO TRENDED POPS
LOWER FOR MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST SHIFTS
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG
WAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF AK FLATTENS AND SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MAKING FOR A FLATTENED REX
BLOCK LIKE PATTERN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BUT GFS WAS FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS
TRENDING FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS ON TUE. GENERALLY ONE TO FIVE DEGREES
LOWER FOR WED AND ONE TO THREE DEGREE LOWER FOR THU AND FRI COMPARED
TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY THE POSSIBILITY
FOR CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN EASTERLY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG



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