Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 292019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
319 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

The stagnant weather pattern will continue tonight into Tuesday
before finally loosening its grasp on the region. Showers will
thin out a little tonight, but models show another cluster of
light showers moving into the northern Red River Valley and
northwest Minnesota by mid to late evening, expanding down into
west central Minnesota toward morning. Then most of the activity
should be east of the Red River through most of Tuesday. The gusty
winds will die down this evening then increase again on Tuesday.
Temperatures tonight will hinge on cloud trends but most of the
area will stay cloudy overnight with steady winds. However, if
some clearing can work into the western FA, temps could drop more.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

No impacts through the first half of the period as we will finally
see a break from the cloudy and rainy conditions as of late. The
main 500 mb low that brought lingering shower chances to the region
for the beginning of the week will finally push off towards the
north and east with upper ridging gradually building in. Plenty of
sunshine through the rest of the work week will allow temperatures
to reach back up into the 70s, or even lower 80s, through Friday.

A return to active weather is possible by the weekend. However,
models diverge greatly on their solutions regarding the return of
any precipitation chances. At this point, the blended solution still
appears to be the best bet with low end rain chances through the
weekend. Temperatures look to turn a bit cooler but still right
around average or just below with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s and
mild lows in the 50s or so.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Winds took quite a while this morning to increase, which could
have been due to the much more extensive low level clouds we
started the day with. However, they should be fairly gusty again
through the afternoon, then decrease this evening and overnight,
before increasing again Tuesday morning. Should not see the 50 mph
wind gusts with the showers that occurred the past few days. Looks
like the cloud cover will hold tough, likely rising into the VFR
range this afternoon and early evening, before falling back into
the MVFR range overnight. The showers are hit and miss, so will go
with VCSH rather than a predominant or TEMPO group. If a shower
does hit a TAF site, it will not last too long.




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