Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 192004
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
304 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Temperatures and winds will be the primary issues for the period.

Southwesterly flow aloft continues over the Northern Plains, with
the surface trough over the Northern Rockies. Winds from the south
have brought temperatures up into the 60s and low 70s this
afternoon, although the cirrus across the north has tempered
warming just a bit. Expect readings to get a few degrees warmer
this afternoon before starting to fall off this evening. The
winds will stay around 8 to 12 mph overnight and should keep the
boundary layer somewhat mixed. Higher dew points will also be
moving in as moisture return continues so will keep lows in the
40s to low 50s.

Tomorrow, the surface trough to the west deepens. With a tight
pressure gradient and 925mb winds at near 40 kts to mix down, we
should see another fairly windy day. Will keep readings below
advisory criteria for now but it could be close. Southerly winds
and 925mb temps in the upper teens C should bring another warm
day, although with more southeasterly fetch than southwesterly
and some cirrus think we will stay below record highs at this
time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Dry weather continues under a ridge that moves out as a trough
approaches this weekend. A low pressure system over the Canadian
Prairies supported by this trough will bring a cold front though
eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota Saturday. This cold
front will bring an end to our significantly above normal
temperatures. There is better agreement amoung model guidance for
moisture in northwest Minnesota than in eastern North Dakota. The
timing of the cold front on Saturday still has disagreement in model
guidance. The ECMWF is progressing the front more slowly than the
NAM, GFS, or CMC. The ECMWF and NAM are also giving more moisture to
eastern North Dakota than the GFS and CMC.

Another system will move through Monday bringing with it chances for
more rain. Once again the better chance will be in northwest
Minnesota but there is disagreement in current model guidance. The
ECMWF is developing a stronger low with this system while the GFS
and CMC keep a much  weaker system. Northwesterly flow aloft will be
present until Thursday when another upper trough approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions throughout the area which will continue for at
least the first half of the TAF period. Southerly winds will bring
up some moisture back into the area later today and into tonight,
and a few of the models try to develop some patchy fog/low stratus
just west of the Red River. However, other models keep us SKC and
there is enough uncertainty due to the patchy nature of any fog
formation to keep out of the TAFs for now. Will keep conditions
VFR through 18Z tomorrow. Winds will be the main issue, with south
to southeast winds gusting above 20 kts at times this afternoon.
Winds will decrease this evening, before picking up even stronger
by the end of the period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

South winds will continue overnight and bring more moisture into
the area. Winds will pick up into the 20 to 30 mph range with
gusts up to 40 mph by afternoon tomorrow. However, with the
moisture moving back into the region the minimum relative humidity
values will stay in the 40 to 50 percent range.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...JR



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