Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE FROST ADVISORY AND IF WE WILL GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR WIDEPSREAD FROST. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-20
MPH RANGE AND CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 20 MPH IN THE NORTH VALLEY.
TEMPS ARE FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S IN THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPPER 20S. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS
HIGH BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. WE WON/T ADJUST FROST HEADLINES...BUT
NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH TEMPS GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S FOR ALL
BUT FAR NORTHEAST ND. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST MAINLY IN THE NORTH. WILL PROBABLY INCREASE TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH WHERE THERE WAS HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH CLOUDS
...AND REMOVE FROST MENTION HERE. THERE WILL NOT BE A KILLING
FREEZE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND LATE
WEEKEND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
RAIN PLACEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY SHORT WAVE.
OTHERWISE MODELS IN OK AGREEMENT. USE MODEL BLEND EXCEPT POPS
WHERE LITTLE CHANGES MADE DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT.

FROST MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL ND BY MORNING.
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWING 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT SO THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT MIXING. WITH
MINIMUMS CLOSE TO 32 ACROSS THE NORTH FEEL THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE
BEST FROST POTENTIAL. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN LOWER AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT DO NOT FEEL ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT
ADVISORY. OVERALL WITH SOME MIXING...EARLY SUNRISE AND MOIST
GROUND MOST AREAS CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WIDESPREAD FROST.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FA SATURDAY FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SOLAR.
COLUMN WARMS SLIGHTLY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BLO
AVERAGE.

WEAK RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
MINIMIZE ANY FROST THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR NE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES WITH POPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
ALL MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH PLACEMENT OF SHOWER
POTENTIAL. WEAK WARM ADVECTION HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL HAVE FINAL SAY
ON TEMPERATURES.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WHICH STILL MEANS AN ACTIVE PERIOD WEATHER WISE. HARD TO
NAIL DOWN THIS FAR OUT WHEN THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
LIFT INTO THE AREA. ONLY THING OF NOTE IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED
ITS SFC LOW POSITION FURTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY...TRACKING IT FROM
NEAR KFSD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT PCPN CHANCES
EVERY SINGLE DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS IT IS HARD TO PICK OUT ANY
DRY PERIODS. TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK


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