Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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436
FXUS63 KFGF 071000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN
AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE
INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.

COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW THAT FALLS THIS
MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE WET AND NOT BLOW MUCH. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES
LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. ALSO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST MN OR JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER/ ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY LESS FOR TONIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ND FOR TODAY. SET THE START
TIME BACK TO 6 AM FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND KEPT THE SAME TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO START AT 9 AM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. MODELS ARE AS EXPECTED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE SOME LOW POPS WEST OF THE RED RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL BLENDS WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. FLOW TRANSITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD AS
A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE COMES IN AFTER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST REMAINING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ039-049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ002-003-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...SPEICHER



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